Mandated vaccines or weekly testing for employers of 100+ people.......

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    Alpo

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    Even you are worth saving from yourself
    monty-python-fart.gif
     

    BugI02

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    I’m not questioning the numbers at all, I’m questioning the conclusions you’re drawing from them. What I’m reading is that 90% of the cases are unvaccinated, but you’re saying that doesn’t matter because once you get it the chances of a bad outcome hold steady across both options. If that’s true, then it ABSOLUTELY matters. If I get this virus, I have the same chances of dying from it, regardless of vaccination status. Option A gives you a >90% chance of having to roll those dice, and Option B gives you <10% chance of rolling those dice. I know which option I’m choosing.
    Yes, but weren't we discussing whether the vaccine was effective against hospitalization and death - it manifestly is not

    I have had this discussion with people before. There are more cars on the road than motorcycles, and more fatal accidents involving cars than motorcycles

    Does that mean that it is statistically safer to drive a motorcycle, or do you consider what
    percentage of motorcycle accidents result in death and compare that to what percentage of automobile accidents result in death to make that judgement

    Airline accidents are very rare, but have a very high percentage of fatalities when they do occur. Does that mean driving is safer?
     

    jsharmon7

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    Yes, but weren't we discussing whether the vaccine was effective against hospitalization and death - it manifestly is not

    I have had this discussion with people before. There are more cars on the road than motorcycles, and more fatal accidents involving cars than motorcycles

    Does that mean that it is statistically safer to drive a motorcycle, or do you consider what
    percentage of motorcycle accidents result in death and compare that to what percentage of automobile accidents result in death to make that judgement

    Airline accidents are very rare, but have a very high percentage of fatalities when they do occur. Does that mean driving is safer?
    I really don’t know what you’re actually discussing anymore. I’ll point you back to your own link that clearly spelled it out.
     

    BugI02

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    I really don’t know what you’re actually discussing anymore. I’ll point you back to your own link that clearly spelled it out.
    What I'm discussing are the relative rates of hospitalization and death among the two groups. They are essentially the same. The aggregate size of each group does not affect the rate of a given outcome's occurrence. That is why percentages or particular outcome per thousand etc are used for comparison. After all, percentage is just particular outcome/100
     

    jsharmon7

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    What I'm discussing are the relative rates of hospitalization and death among the two groups. They are essentially the same. The aggregate size of each group does not affect the rate of a given outcome's occurrence. That is why percentages or particular outcome per thousand etc are used for comparison. After all, percentage is just particular outcome/100
    That’s a little clearer. It seems to me like you’re trying to squint your eyes, stick out your tongue, and raise your foot juuuust right to see the data in a certain way. I’m looking at it much more directly: 45% of the population is making up 90% of the problem.

    Also, the Scotland data does a great job of getting into rates and giving weight to certain groups. The outcome was the same.
     

    JettaKnight

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    Yeah, fuzzy math. The Maryland data shows 85% vaccinated responsible for 40% of present death rate. That means 15% of the unvaccinated represent 60% of the present death rate. That is not a stellar endorsement for going commando.
    Pareto Principle?
     

    Keith_Indy

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    If anyone is interested...which I sense no one is....

    In order for those numbers to mean anything, one has to know the relative vaccination rates for the people who, by age or preexisting condition, were more likely to die from Covid...and a lot more data points

    Data galore here if you're into digging in... https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths

    I agree, the statistics of cases versus population versus etc would give a more complete understanding of what he is talking.

    I believe the point he's making is that the vaccine has waning efficacy, based on this snip from the article. So, I would assume from this, he's saying that the 40% number is an increase in the rate of death among the vaccinated.

    Dr. Robert Redfield just told @MarthaMacCallum on @Foxnews that 40% of the recent Covid deaths in the state of Maryland were among people who are fully vaccinated. Redfield says this under scores the importance of maintaining a high level of immunity.

    Here are the gross numbers I could find...

    VaxxUn-Vaxx
    Population
    3970057​
    2095379​
    Deaths
    256​
    385​
    Percentage
    0.00645%​
    0.01837%​
     
    Last edited:

    jsharmon7

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    Data galore here if you're into digging in... https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths

    I agree, the statistics of cases versus population versus etc would give a more complete understanding of what he is talking.

    I believe the point he's making is that the vaccine has waning efficacy, based on this snip from the article. So, I would assume from this, he's saying that the 40% number is an increase in the rate of death among the vaccinated.



    Here are the gross numbers I could find...

    VaxxUn-Vaxx
    Population
    3970057​
    2095379​
    Deaths
    256​
    385​
    Percentage
    0.00645%​
    0.01837%​
    So by those numbers, there were 129 fewer deaths in a population 1.9M higher. Adjusted, that’s 3 times more likely to die if you’re unvaccinated.
    Yet people are still going :lala:

    It STILL doesn’t justify mandates, but it shows good reason to get it if you’re in an at-risk group.
     

    BugI02

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    That’s a little clearer. It seems to me like you’re trying to squint your eyes, stick out your tongue, and raise your foot juuuust right to see the data in a certain way. I’m looking at it much more directly: 45% of the population is making up 90% of the problem.

    Also, the Scotland data does a great job of getting into rates and giving weight to certain groups. The outcome was the same.
    Lolz. Returning to my other example

    Using 2017, which is the most recent year I can find all statistics for

    There were 37473 fatalities in auto accidents and 5172 fatalities in motorcycle accidents


    OMG, traveling by car is 7.25x more dangerous than traveling by motorcycle :runaway:
     

    jsharmon7

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    Lolz. Returning to my other example

    Using 2017, which is the most recent year I can find all statistics for

    There were 37473 fatalities in auto accidents and 5172 fatalities in motorcycle accidents


    OMG, traveling by car is 7.25x more dangerous than traveling by motorcycle :runaway:
    See above.

    By the way, I like Columbus. We go there every year for the Arnold, when your governor doesn’t cancel it. :xmad:
     
    Last edited:

    HoughMade

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    Data galore here if you're into digging in... https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths

    I agree, the statistics of cases versus population versus etc would give a more complete understanding of what he is talking.

    I believe the point he's making is that the vaccine has waning efficacy, based on this snip from the article. So, I would assume from this, he's saying that the 40% number is an increase in the rate of death among the vaccinated.



    Here are the gross numbers I could find...

    VaxxUn-Vaxx
    Population
    3970057​
    2095379​
    Deaths
    256​
    385​
    Percentage
    0.00645%​
    0.01837%​
    Sure. Even those numbers seem to show the death rate of the unvaccinated almost 3 times that of the vaccinated. But I think that it has to be stratified more to take into account the populations most likely to die. What I mean by this is that healthy people under 50 are very unlikely to die regardless of vax status. If we take a population- wide look, we see the vaccinated are less likely to die, but if we narrow the focus to the populations most likely to die due to age and preexisting conditions, I think the difference is even more stark and for that population the vax advantage is much higher.

    While I don't know about "waning effectiveness", I just don't have the info and can't reach any conclusions about that, there has been a lot of talk about vaccines "not working" and even arguments that vaccinated people are more likely to die. This is simply not true when the stats are analyzed. Simply put- stating "more people who are vaccinated died than unvaccinated" (which is only rarely the case in a few limited samples) does not prove that that vaccinations cause more harm than good. Without an analysis of the number of vaccinated people in a given group, just stating that one number is larger than another is irrelevant.

    (here we go) It's akin to saying that white people are arrested for more crimes than black people. They are, by a greater than 2 to 1 margin. However, unless you know how many people in each group we are talking about, we don't know much.
     

    Ingomike

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    6   0   0
    May 26, 2018
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    Data galore here if you're into digging in... https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths

    I agree, the statistics of cases versus population versus etc would give a more complete understanding of what he is talking.

    I believe the point he's making is that the vaccine has waning efficacy, based on this snip from the article. So, I would assume from this, he's saying that the 40% number is an increase in the rate of death among the vaccinated.



    Here are the gross numbers I could find...

    VaxxUn-Vaxx
    Population
    3970057​
    2095379​
    Deaths
    256​
    385​
    Percentage
    0.00645%​
    0.01837%​
    Am I reading this right? We are parsing 600 deaths in 6 million people? And in the worst case we are at hundredths of a percent?
     
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