The Official "Business Destroyed By Lockdown" Thread

[Naptown]

I heard from a local brewery source that microbrews got hurt really bad without the restaurant sales. Yes, we are all drinking more, we just aren't doing it $6 per pint in a crowded areas anymore. I hope restaurants can (re)get going again and support the local hop houses ASAP!

 

[MCgrease08]

I heard from a local brewery source that microbrews got hurt really bad without the restaurant sales. Yes, we are all drinking more, we just aren't doing it $6 per pint in a crowded areas anymore. I hope restaurants can (re)get going again and support the local hop houses ASAP!

I know a guy that supports a beverage distributor and said a brewery in Brooklyn has had to dump close to $400 million in beer (retail value) since this started.

 

[Cameramonkey]

I saw where the Golden Corral will be opening back up their dining room this week. As a place whose model is based off a huge buffet serving area, I have to imagine that will slow them down quite a bit as so many people are afraid to even touch a shopping cart someone else used, much less a serving spoon and food someone else has shed germs all over.

They actually have somewhat decent food. Can you imagine how good it would be if it was sold made to order? Ive heard that is what they switched to for carry out. Something like $8 gets you a meat and two sides. Hope they survive. Like them better than any other. (but I eat like a bird so I dont get my $$ worth so I go very seldom)

I miss the Tie Dye Grill. I thought they gave Shapiro's a run for their money. Love me some Reubens!

Damn straight. Used to eat there several times a year. The ZZ Top was the best.

And Shapiro's bread. Wow.

 

[bwframe]

Hammer and Nigel had a barber on this evening that was planning to go against the lock down and open back up for business on Monday. His shop is somewhere around Thompson and Emerson.

 

[JettaKnight]

I heard from a local brewery source that microbrews got hurt really bad without the restaurant sales. Yes, we are all drinking more, we just aren't doing it $6 per pint in a crowded areas anymore. I hope restaurants can (re)get going again and support the local hop houses ASAP!

Yeah. I've been buying their kegged beer and keeping it on tap at home... it doesn't last long... I got no place to go.

 

[Libertarian01]

JCrews filed for bankruptcy. So did Hertz. With Herz having difficulties these companies will as well: https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a32461642/automakers-that-lose-from-hertz-bankruptcy/

I have been b******g and moaning from the beginning that these forced lockdowns will have collateral and cascading deleterious effects throughout the economy. Each business that may just be "reorganizing" is going to cut orders from their suppliers. Those cuts will become a cumulative damage that will pile up, like death from a thousand paper cuts.

I will make the following prediction: Every single major airline will file for bankruptcy by the end of the year, or they will have received massive government aid - or both! Just heard a story on NPR about how weather predictions are off because much of the data they collect comes from sensors in the noses of commercial airlines, which are now down 80%! That means that data used to predict hurricanes, their direction, speed, etc is reduced dramatically due to lack of planes in the air.

I also doubt that commercial travel will be what it was before. There was a LOT of business travel but with the forced lockdowns companies have gone to virtual meetings. They have now, if they hadn't before, invested in software to meet and communicate. Why spend thousands of dollars on air travel when you have the means to accomplish the same thing and save money? While we're on this line of thought what will this do long term to the hotel industry?

Anyone looked at the meat industry? In Delaware alone they slaughtered two (2) million chickens and threw them out because they couldn't process them. Why pay for the chickens if you can't process them? Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-chicken-poultry-farm-workers.html

Pigs/pork? Dead: https://time.com/5831061/pigs-killed-coronavirus-meatpacking-shutdowns/

Cattle: https://www.agweb.com/article/covid-19-cattle-industry-losses-estimated-136-billion

I don't mind the media reporting facts. They should do that. But with this story they went way beyond, they whipped us up into a panic who's fear went far beyond the threat level it represented.

Yes, people were staying home before the lockdowns, but the lockdowns removed any flexibility from the citizenry.

I need to find it (lost reference darnit) but I read that the last major depression killed 50 - 80 MILLION people worldwide! Compare those losses to that of Covid and there is no justification for threatening our economy like we have. I fear that it may already be too late. We may have in our panic run so fast we've fallen off the cliff and don't realize we're midair with the ground closing on us. I truly hope I am wrong!!!

Regards,

Doug

 

[dusty88]

JCrews filed for bankruptcy. So did Hertz. With Herz having difficulties these companies will as well: https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a32461642/automakers-that-lose-from-hertz-bankruptcy/

I have been b******g and moaning from the beginning that these forced lockdowns will have collateral and cascading deleterious effects throughout the economy. Each business that may just be "reorganizing" is going to cut orders from their suppliers. Those cuts will become a cumulative damage that will pile up, like death from a thousand paper cuts.

I will make the following prediction: Every single major airline will file for bankruptcy by the end of the year, or they will have received massive government aid - or both! Just heard a story on NPR about how weather predictions are off because much of the data they collect comes from sensors in the noses of commercial airlines, which are now down 80%! That means that data used to predict hurricanes, their direction, speed, etc is reduced dramatically due to lack of planes in the air.

I also doubt that commercial travel will be what it was before. There was a LOT of business travel but with the forced lockdowns companies have gone to virtual meetings. They have now, if they hadn't before, invested in software to meet and communicate. Why spend thousands of dollars on air travel when you have the means to accomplish the same thing and save money? While we're on this line of thought what will this do long term to the hotel industry?

Anyone looked at the meat industry? In Delaware alone they slaughtered two (2) million chickens and threw them out because they couldn't process them. Why pay for the chickens if you can't process them? Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-chicken-poultry-farm-workers.html

Pigs/pork? Dead: https://time.com/5831061/pigs-killed-coronavirus-meatpacking-shutdowns/

Cattle: https://www.agweb.com/article/covid-19-cattle-industry-losses-estimated-136-billion

I don't mind the media reporting facts. They should do that. But with this story they went way beyond, they whipped us up into a panic who's fear went far beyond the threat level it represented.

Yes, people were staying home before the lockdowns, but the lockdowns removed any flexibility from the citizenry.

I need to find it (lost reference darnit) but I read that the last major depression killed 50 - 80 MILLION people worldwide! Compare those losses to that of Covid and there is no justification for threatening our economy like we have. I fear that it may already be too late. We may have in our panic run so fast we've fallen off the cliff and don't realize we're midair with the ground closing on us. I truly hope I am wrong!!!

Regards,

Doug

AFAIk, air travel isn't shut down.

And meat plants certainly aren't shut down by decree; their workers are getting sick. I know veterinary meat inspectors sick, reporting multiple problems and just being told to go back to work. Then they get replaced and the replacements get sick.

You can argue about the severity of this virus but some of the effects are really due to the virus, not the government reaction.


Breweries being hurt makes me really sad, because I know many of them are hard-working local businesses with their heart and soul in it. I also know there was quite a lot of growth and am not surprised some would be highly susceptible in a downturn.

 

[femurphy77]

AFAIk, air travel isn't shut down.

And meat plants certainly aren't shut down by decree; their workers are getting sick. I know veterinary meat inspectors sick, reporting multiple problems and just being told to go back to work. Then they get replaced and the replacements get sick.

You can argue about the severity of this virus but some of the effects are really due to the virus, not the government reaction.


Breweries being hurt makes me really sad, because I know many of them are hard-working local businesses with their heart and soul in it. I also know there was quite a lot of growth and am not surprised some would be highly susceptible in a downturn.

I read something last week (yeah I know) that quoted TSA saying that they were screening 2.3 million people per day prior to the WuFlu shutdowns and last week they were averaging 125,000 per day. Several airlines are already pulling in the spokes on their spoke and hub routes canceling lesser subscribed flights and destinations. I also read just yesterday that Delta I believe it was is permanently grounding all triple 7's in favor of Airbus.

Humpty Dumpty has fallen and to paraphrase Paul Harvey we all know the rest of that story.

 

[dsol]

I read something last week (yeah I know) that quoted TSA saying that they were screening 2.3 million people per day prior to the WuFlu shutdowns and last week they were averaging 125,000 per day. Several airlines are already pulling in the spokes on their spoke and hub routes canceling lesser subscribed flights and destinations. I also read just yesterday that Delta I believe it was is permanently grounding all triple 7's in favor of Airbus.

Humpty Dumpty has fallen and to paraphrase Paul Harvey we all know the rest of that story.

I am (well... was, no longer sadly) in the airline industry and can tell you those numbers are pretty on spot. A lot, if not most regional airlines will be out of business soon and I agree about the majors. They will all file for bankruptcy, even if getting massive cubic dollars from the government. Especially if they are in my opinion... they are a greedy bunch.

It will take years for the airline industry to recover after "things return to normal". Leisure travel will stay down for a while as few will have the money to blow on vacations after being out of work and catching up on bills. Business travel is where airlines made their best profits, full priced tickets are their bread and butter but with all the new emphasis on working from home, remote access and virtual meetings, I agree that corporations will not be traveling nearly as much.

We had an awesome boom for A&P mechanics and pilots over the last few years. Kids coming out of school with no experience were being snapped right up at pretty decent salaries. I feel bad for kids now finishing up in school, there will be no jobs for them for years with the glut on the market.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

I read something last week (yeah I know) that quoted TSA saying that they were screening 2.3 million people per day prior to the WuFlu shutdowns and last week they were averaging 125,000 per day.

I was in New Mexico when things started getting really weird in the US and stuff started shutting down. I flew home out of El Paso on an early flight and was the *only* person getting screened by TSA and was the *only* person in my waiting area for about an hour. Even then planes were at 50-70% capacity tops.

JCrews filed for bankruptcy. So did Hertz. With Herz having difficulties these companies will as well: https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a32461642/automakers-that-lose-from-hertz-bankruptcy/

J Crew is another one with a huge debt load and years of net losses in sales. (Unlike JCP they were at least losing less money then before, though) They are just doing a Chapter 11 and aren't going out of business. The debt holders are getting equity in exchange for debt.

Hertz, yeah, and if they actually liquidate that's going to have a huge impact on the new and used car market. That's a metric butt-ton of late model low mileage cars to be auctioned off at one time, and a time when demand is pretty low. Might be an awesome time for a customer interested in a Toyota Solara or whatever, but it's going to hurt both used and new car sales.

 

[MarkC]

Hertz, yeah, and if they actually liquidate that's going to have a huge impact on the new and used car market. That's a metric butt-ton of late model low mileage cars to be auctioned off at one time, and a time when demand is pretty low. Might be an awesome time for a customer interested in a Toyota Solara or whatever, but it's going to hurt both used and new car sales.

Two weeks ago we took Mrs. MarkC's Chevrolet Earth Ravager (I think it is officially named a Suburban) to Andy Mohr Chevrolet in Plainfield to have two minor recalls applied. Their sales lot was so full of brand new cars to the point it was difficult to drive that giant beast back to the service department. I'm not tuned in to the new car business, but it seemed like they had an awful lot on hand.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Two weeks ago we took Mrs. MarkC's Chevrolet Earth Ravager (I think it is officially named a Suburban) to Andy Mohr Chevrolet in Plainfield to have two minor recalls applied. Their sales lot was so full of brand new cars to the point it was difficult to drive that giant beast back to the service department. I'm not tuned in to the new car business, but it seemed like they had an awful lot on hand.

If they hadn't had plant shutdowns they'd have a lot more. Sales are down, but not as dramatically as you might think. Nowhere near the cliff of the Great Recession, at least not yet. Some of that has been thanks to really strong incentives and financing options. Some pickup trucks and delivery vehicles are actually up this quarter, either due to the incentives or due to an uptick in delivery needs who knows. Some sports car sales are up as well, my guess is people taking their Trump-bux and taking advantage of the current offers to jump on something they've been eyeing for a long time that suddenly became more affordable.

Over all, sales are down though. I'd also not want to make any predictions on repossessions. People who used those Trump-bux for something they couldn't ordinarily afford, or who jumped on a new toy but lose their job in the coming year, that might be tough.

 

[MarkC]

Over all, sales are down though. I'd also not want to make any predictions on repossessions. People who used those Trump-bux for something they couldn't ordinarily afford, or who jumped on a new toy but lose their job in the coming year, that might be tough.

I share the concern about what is going to happen in a few months. My son's Trump-bux were burning a hole in his pocket yesterday, and he was going to Bradis and a couple of other stores to "just look around." I advised him to hold off on buying any firearms right now, as there will likely be several used firearms hitting the market in the coming months, bringing prices back down.

 

[Libertarian01]

AFAIk, air travel isn't shut down.

And meat plants certainly aren't shut down by decree; their workers are getting sick. I know veterinary meat inspectors sick, reporting multiple problems and just being told to go back to work. Then they get replaced and the replacements get sick.

You can argue about the severity of this virus but some of the effects are really due to the virus, not the government reaction.


Breweries being hurt makes me really sad, because I know many of them are hard-working local businesses with their heart and soul in it. I also know there was quite a lot of growth and am not surprised some would be highly susceptible in a downturn.

Air travel is shut down due to most states locking down and keeping people from gathering. I have a friend who was planning a three (3) week trip to Austria that won't go now due to the Austrians shutting down the museums, historical sites, etc. Same thing in USA. Why would anyone fly to Chicago to see the museums when Illinois has closed them? They won't. And then they won't stay in a hotel there either. Also, lockdowns block groups getting together so no business meetings. This is nationwide.

The problem comes from the panic induced by the media, then transferred to people in authority by public pressure. 80% of us who get the disease have no or very minor symptoms. The meat plants shutting down may have been due to some employees testing positive. They may not have even been sick, just positive! They don't do this for the flu. Link: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/business/meat-processing-plants-coronavirus/index.html

I read something last week (yeah I know) that quoted TSA saying that they were screening 2.3 million people per day prior to the WuFlu shutdowns and last week they were averaging 125,000 per day. Several airlines are already pulling in the spokes on their spoke and hub routes canceling lesser subscribed flights and destinations. I also read just yesterday that Delta I believe it was is permanently grounding all triple 7's in favor of Airbus.

Humpty Dumpty has fallen and to paraphrase Paul Harvey we all know the rest of that story.

Here are the numbers direct from the TSA: https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

I was in New Mexico when things started getting really weird in the US and stuff started shutting down. I flew home out of El Paso on an early flight and was the *only* person getting screened by TSA and was the *only* person in my waiting area for about an hour. Even then planes were at 50-70% capacity tops.

J Crew is another one with a huge debt load and years of net losses in sales. (Unlike JCP they were at least losing less money then before, though) They are just doing a Chapter 11 and aren't going out of business. The debt holders are getting equity in exchange for debt.

Hertz, yeah, and if they actually liquidate that's going to have a huge impact on the new and used car market. That's a metric butt-ton of late model low mileage cars to be auctioned off at one time, and a time when demand is pretty low. Might be an awesome time for a customer interested in a Toyota Solara or whatever, but it's going to hurt both used and new car sales.

My issue with companies like JCrews is that while they may have been "sick", they were still limping along, paying their bills, keeping employees employed, paying vendors, creditors, etc. It often amazes me how companies can struggle on for years before collapsing, but they do. They may well have gone out of business anyway, but that loss would have been in a stable economy where other companies could have absorbed the loss, now they may not be able to.

----

People who have a low risk tolerance would have and did lockdown on their own. I acknowledge this. However, the governors locking things down squashed those of us who have a higher risk tolerance being able to spend our money in places that we wanted to. It took the flexibility out of the system, even for businesses. Government heavy handedness will have helped seriously injure if not destroy our economy.

Regards,

Doug

 

[BehindBlueI's]

My issue with companies like JCrews is that while they may have been "sick", they were still limping along, paying their bills, keeping employees employed, paying vendors, creditors, etc. It often amazes me how companies can struggle on for years before collapsing, but they do. They may well have gone out of business anyway, but that loss would have been in a stable economy where other companies could have absorbed the loss, now they may not be able to.

Look past the headlines and also look up Chapter 11 vs Chapter 7. They have not gone out of business.

They will still be limping along, paying their bills, keeping employees employed, paying vendors, creditors, etc. The difference is some major creditors will be paid with equity in the company, becoming owners instead of debt holders. With less debt on the books they have a better chance of turning it around and the former creditors have an vested interest in seeing that happen as that's how they'll get at return.

 

[JettaKnight]

Look past the headlines and also look up Chapter 11 vs Chapter 7. They have not gone out of business.

They will still be limping along, paying their bills, keeping employees employed, paying vendors, creditors, etc. The difference is some major creditors will be paid with equity in the company, becoming owners instead of debt holders. With less debt on the books they have a better chance of turning it around and the former creditors have an vested interest in seeing that happen as that's how they'll get at return.

Yeah, they're "restructuring".

 

[Libertarian01]

Look past the headlines and also look up Chapter 11 vs Chapter 7. They have not gone out of business.

They will still be limping along, paying their bills, keeping employees employed, paying vendors, creditors, etc. The difference is some major creditors will be paid with equity in the company, becoming owners instead of debt holders. With less debt on the books they have a better chance of turning it around and the former creditors have an vested interest in seeing that happen as that's how they'll get at return.

I hear what you are saying, but just because they are allowed to restructure in no way guarantees their continued survival. I understand the basic difference between Ch's 7 & 11.

My point is that Covid forced the restructuring in a way that wasn't under their control. As more companies restructure under 11 the restructuring itself causes disruption in the business, just with some good benefits.

When we get too many businesses filing Ch 11 this will cause damages to creditors who are reliant on a planned revenue stream. Disrupt that stream too much and the financial institutions will begin to waver. Each creditor has a limit on how low their numbers can go before they themselves risk being unable to pay their bills.

If we see more and more "weak" companies forced to take the bankruptcy path due to our overreaction to Covid this will place strain on the system that will eventually collapse if we cross that unknown Rubicon.

Regards,

Doug

 

[dsol]

Over all, sales are down though. I'd also not want to make any predictions on repossessions. People who used those Trump-bux for something they couldn't ordinarily afford, or who jumped on a new toy but lose their job in the coming year, that might be tough.

I only used mine to pay off what I owed the IRS, that bill will NEVER go away, no matter what gets passed in Congress such as student loan forgiveness, mortgage relief... ect... Otherwise I am hoarding cash. If things get bad, I will stop non essential payments and make sure we keep the roof over our heads and food in our stomachs. At least I have some cash and food stores to fall back on, not many people (sheep?) do. Never lived paycheck to paycheck and am doubly glad now...

 

[churchmouse]

I only used mine to pay off what I owed the IRS, that bill will NEVER go away, no matter what gets passed in Congress such as student loan forgiveness, mortgage relief... ect... Otherwise I am hoarding cash. If things get bad, I will stop non essential payments and make sure we keep the roof over our heads and food in our stomachs. At least I have some cash and food stores to fall back on, not many people (sheep?) do. Never lived paycheck to paycheck and am doubly glad now...

It is amazing to me (NOT) how easily so many were bought with a mere $1200 check. Then the promise of union trade level bring home pay on unemployment for sake. WTH is all that about. I busted my A$$ for years to achieve that and these douche bags are just giving it away to the point that many businesses will not be staffed when they re-open.
Again, this is just a dress rehearsal. The actual play is about to start. Get a good seat. and a sprite. Then hang on.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

I hear what you are saying, but just because they are allowed to restructure in no way guarantees their continued survival. I understand the basic difference between Ch's 7 & 11.

Of course they aren't guaranteed survival and if you understand the difference why did you act like they were not paying employees, vendors, etc.?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say you haven't read any of their financials. I recommend you do so. There's another big factor at play, one that's also been present in over 70% of major retailer bankruptcies in the past decade, and one much more dangerous to the long term health of the brand. While I agree about the concern over COVID's impact on the economy, don't get tunnel vision.