Secession: an academic discussion

[Angrysauce]

First, let us presume that a mechanism is created to even allow for peaceful secession.

After that, all hell would break loose, logistically speaking.

For this stage we can presume that Indiana secedes from the USA. We need our own currency. We need to be recognized as a sovereign nation by foreign powers. We would need to mirror to a much greater degree the entire bureaucracy of the federal government. The international logistics alone would be enormous.

Oh, and how would Indiana trade with the world? We actually do have some limited access to the great lakes, which has some access for shipping. Are our ships now allowed to pass through the Saint Lawrence River? Who has legal liability for these ships now flagged under the sovereign nation of Indiana's flag? If our inspections are not "up to snuff" could the hoosier taxpayers be on the hook for an oil spill affecting Canada and the remaining USA?

What about currently incarcerated federal prisoners being housed in Indiana? Do they stay, and if so for how long?

How are people from Ohio supposed to travel to Illinois? Will there be new border checkpoints?

We also have to consider electricity. How independent are we? I know we get some power from a nuclear reactor in Michigan, but how much? How do we deal with this issue?

Now let us presume it is California which secedes. What happens to all of the USA military bases? How does trade flow through California to the rest of the nation? California has the most shipping on the west coast. That will surely affect trade within the rest of the USA.

People speak of this issue as if all we have to do is "break away then we'll set things aright." Really? How wonderfully naive. It has taken the United States of America 244 years to develop and build our infrastructure, and we're still working on it. If any state ever decided to secede, and it was "allowed," the devastation to that states economy and governmental organization would be catastrophic. The catastrophe would exist with a peaceful exit. A violent exit, or even not peaceful...? Not good for anyone.

In my opinion.

Regards,

Doug

Decentralization of governing and regulatory authority.
Secession leaves the state bankrupt, landlocked, and woefully under prepared for the world stage.

 

[churchmouse]

1. We do not necessarily need a currency. Several small countries use the $US as their official currency. Swiss francs come to mind as an obvious choice.

2. Recognition is a matter of accepting reality, not a matter of needing anyone else's imprimatur to exist.

3. Almost no sea trade is carried under the US flag. Why would it be carried under the Indiana flag?

4. Given the virtual certainty of shipborne trade happening under a foreign flag, most likely one of the usual flags of convenience, liability for mishaps is not our problem.

5. Federal prisoners can be returned to whomever wants to continue caging them or else sent home if no other state or a remnant US .gov wants to continue incarcerating them.

6. If California secedes, it will almost certainly split into 2 states. While LA has the greatest volume capacity Northern California would probably be agreeable and could construct larger harbor facilities if needed. I would also hope that we would take this opportunity to stop buying **** from China and build our own economy.

7. We could either offer free passage to citizens of other states presuming reciprocal treatment, or perhaps establish the 80/90 toll road as a free transit zone like the Panama Canal only on land.

8. We have power houses. We have coal. We will NOT at this point have some window licker in Washington prohibiting us from using them. Alternately, it can be traded across borders like any other product.

9. Military assets can be apportioned by what any given state paid into them although stationary facilities pretty much are where they are.

10. How does removing the federal.gov from taking our highway money, giving 20% of it to West Virginia, and making us beg and jump through hoops to get 80% of it back work better than going alone?

11. Overall, thus supposed economic devastation sounds more like a bogeyman to scare people into submission more than anything approaching reality.

One thing that is missing in all of this.
We CKW and myself) have paid into SS since we were kids. It is not all of our retirement but a good portion as CKW is on a well deserved disability from her SS and I receive mine. When the dip 's and politicians crashed the economy in 06/08 we lost most of whet we had for retirement and never recovered. It would be a struggle if that went away and many due to poor planning etc would surely perish.
As we paid into this rolling Ponsey scheme for 50+ years to just throw in the towel is not something I or a zillion others is ready to do.

I hate it but there it is.

 

[Angrysauce]

One thing that is missing in all of this.
We CKW and myself) have paid into SS since we were kids. It is not all of our retirement but a good portion as CKW is on a well deserved disability from her SS and I receive mine. When the dip 's and politicians crashed the economy in 06/08 we lost most of whet we had for retirement and never recovered. It would be a struggle if that went away and many due to poor planning etc would surely perish.
As we paid into this rolling Ponsey scheme for 50+ years to just throw in the towel is not something I or a zillion others is ready to do.

I hate it but there it is.

I'm in the middle of the ocean, thousands of miles from shore on a ship that my forefathers built. Over the course of generations my grandfathers, father, and now myself have allowed the ship to fall into disrepair, irreparably so.
My ship is now sinking.
I can cut my losses, lick my wounds, and crawl into the life boat. Unsure of the what the future and ocean hold for me. Perhaps finding land and building a new life for my children. Perhaps dying at sea.
Or
I can go down with my ship because I never got to see the gold gilded ceiling in the Captain's suite while I was letting the hull rust through.

 

[churchmouse]

I'm in the middle of the ocean, thousands of miles from shore on a ship that my forefathers built. Over the course of generations my grandfathers, father, and now myself have allowed the ship to fall into disrepair, irreparably so.
My ship is now sinking.
I can cut my losses, lick my wounds, and crawl into the life boat. Unsure of the what the future and ocean hold for me. Perhaps finding land and building a new life for my children. Perhaps dying at sea.
Or
I can go down with my ship because I never got to see the gold gilded ceiling in the Captain's suite while I was letting the hull rust through.

OK that has not a damned thing to do with what I and a few million other people will do if and when this party gets started.
I worked my tail off as did my wife our entire lives.
I still work and have a few different revenue streams but as time advances these will dry up with my ability to maintain them. Getting old seriously sucks.

I am not looking for sympathy. Just an understanding of what the future may bring. Especially with my spouse living with a serious medical disability. Just answers. Thats all.

 

[JettaKnight]

As previously mentioned American Nations by Woodard is a good read and enlightening in many ways.
In my view (for all that it's worth) the United States have never been truly "united". We don't have a shared culture, ethnicity, or heritage to fall back on, so inevitably class, racial, religious, and ideological conflict arises. We've only really ever "worked" as a nation when there was some common enemy. The world stage hasn't presented a real boogieman for about 80 years, so naturally we've focused our energy at our neighbors.

Maybe you missed the Gulf War & war on terrorism... which was kind of hard to miss with all the flags going up, and yellow ribbons.

Have you not seen all the American flags in front yards? AFAIK, that doesn't happen in any other country.

The United States was never supposed to be of any consequence, the Federal government was never supposed to be a part of your daily life. The power, authority, and influence was to lay at the state and local level. It's pretty easy to see looking back that as the Federal government grew more conflict arose.
If we want to improve the United States it's necessary we decentralize, succession is not enough.

The Articles of Confederation and Perpetual Union failed for a reason.

 

[Angrysauce]

OK that has not a damned thing to do with what I and a few million other people will do if and when this party gets started.
I worked my tail off as did my wife our entire lives.
I still work and have a few different revenue streams but as time advances these will dry up with my ability to maintain them. Getting old seriously sucks.

I am not looking for sympathy. Just an understanding of what the future may bring. Especially with my spouse living with a serious medical disability. Just answers. Thats all.

And I'm not trying to be apathetic to that. You got forced into a sh*t deal.
But rest assured, I'm paying into SS too. I will NEVER see it. Regardless of what happens in the US. It is insolvent, all of my investment won't be worth anything. Look at how contribution percentages have increased and the worker-beneficiary ratio has decreased.
It will suck for all involved.

 

[Angrysauce]

Maybe you missed the Gulf War & war on terrorism... which was kind of hard to miss with all the flags going up, and yellow ribbons.

Have you not seen all the American flags in front yards? AFAIK, that doesn't happen in any other country.

Must have missed it in the same way we seem to have missed finding any WMDs, secured our oil though. Or the irony of being shot at with weapons we supplied to the muj and Al Qeada/Taliban/Isis by extension. The GWOT has been a failure and most people are aware of that.

But hey. At least we all had flags and ribbons on display while we played dirty tribal politics to encroach on the rights of others.

 

[JettaKnight]

Must have missed it in the same way we seem to have missed finding any WMDs, secured our oil though. Or the irony of being shot at with weapons we supplied to the muj and Al Qeada/Taliban/Isis by extension. The GWOT has been a failure and most people are aware of that.

But hey. At least we all had flags and ribbons on display while we played dirty tribal politics to encroach on the rights of others.

Hey, I didn't say the war was just, I just said it brought us together.


PS - Username checks out.

 

[Libertarian01]

One thing that is missing in all of this.
We CKW and myself) have paid into SS since we were kids. It is not all of our retirement but a good portion as CKW is on a well deserved disability from her SS and I receive mine. When the dip 's and politicians crashed the economy in 06/08 we lost most of whet we had for retirement and never recovered. It would be a struggle if that went away and many due to poor planning etc would surely perish.
As we paid into this rolling Ponsey scheme for 50+ years to just throw in the towel is not something I or a zillion others is ready to do.

I hate it but there it is.

This is one of those itty bitty details that I referred to in an enormous list of things people just do not think about.

I presume(?) you are on medicare and that you have(?) a medicare supplement. As medicare and its supplement are legally controlled (mostly) by federal law, what would happen to your medicare and the coexisting supplement? We would no longer have to pay for medicare, great! But what would you and a million other retirees do for SS and medicare?

As for those folks, of whom you may be one, what about stocks, bonds, 401k's, 403b's (that's me), and other investments? Now we're in a foreign nation. Will Indiana mirror federal laws, or make radical changes? And if so, how will that affect our investments?

Since our president is now elected by the electoral college will we do the same in Indiana? Will each county get electoral votes, or will we keep the system of voting for governor (or president) the same as it is?

Speaking of voting for the governor, what about the Indiana Supreme Court? Many folks like the idea of a truly independent SCOTUS for life, where they don't have to worry about their jobs - ever. It has a downside, but it has an upside as well. Indiana SC has terms. Will we keep them or move to the federal model? Or will we change it?

And you olde people can now be even better guinea pigs! With no FDA or its replacement (yet) pharmacueticals would LOVE to find a new and unprotected population to test cancer drugs, Alzheimer's drugs, Covid drugs, arthritis drugs and so on without the pesky FDA and federal laws in the way. As a matter of fact, I bet they would just LOVE to help our new legislators write laws that would help protect the people of the sovereign nation of Indiana and yet allow for more efficient testing.

We could go on forever.

Succession would have been easier for the South prior to the 1870's without any significant population dependent upon the federal government. But today? We are so intertwined it is unimaginable.

I don't want anyone to think I am slamming everything. I am not! There are things the feds do that are stupid, wasteful, ridiculous, and egregious - but not all. At their core many federal programs are or were good and do good work. With every law and department there ARE winners and there ARE losers. The question is where the breakdown is and by how much.

Regards,

Doug

 

[IndyDave1776]

One thing that is missing in all of this.
We CKW and myself) have paid into SS since we were kids. It is not all of our retirement but a good portion as CKW is on a well deserved disability from her SS and I receive mine. When the dip 's and politicians crashed the economy in 06/08 we lost most of whet we had for retirement and never recovered. It would be a struggle if that went away and many due to poor planning etc would surely perish.
As we paid into this rolling Ponsey scheme for 50+ years to just throw in the towel is not something I or a zillion others is ready to do.

I hate it but there it is.

My two thoughts...

First, I didn't really think about that largely due to having little expectation of it surviving. By contrast, you are already there.

Second, I see no reason why it cant be divided up and handed to the states to manage as they see fit in the event of parting ways. Given that, as you said, it's a ponzi scheme, we should be able to perpetuate that with a smaller number of payers supporting a smaller number of payees.

 

[JTScribe]

If the dollar collapses, the discussion of Social Security might be a moot one. I fully expect I'm tossing that SSI money into a fire and will never see dime one of it.

 

[KLB]

If the dollar collapses, the discussion of Social Security might be a moot one. I fully expect I'm tossing that SSI money into a fire and will never see dime one of it.

You'll be fine. The national debt is meaningless, or so I've been told.

 

[JTScribe]

You'll be fine. The national debt is meaningless, or so I've been told

It's got to blow up at some point, the trillion dollar question is when ...

 

[churchmouse]

My two thoughts...

First, I didn't really think about that largely due to having little expectation of it surviving. By contrast, you are already there.

Second, I see no reason why it cant be divided up and handed to the states to manage as they see fit in the event of parting ways. Given that, as you said, it's a ponzi scheme, we should be able to perpetuate that with a smaller number of payers supporting a smaller number of payees.

Trust that we were skeptical of it surviving as well. With the raping of the fund by both sides. But with the serious losses we had in the "O" years and my not staying on top of it for reasons life hung on me we now rely on that income.

 

[churchmouse]

This is one of those itty bitty details that I referred to in an enormous list of things people just do not think about.

I presume(?) you are on medicare and that you have(?) a medicare supplement. As medicare and its supplement are legally controlled (mostly) by federal law, what would happen to your medicare and the coexisting supplement? We would no longer have to pay for medicare, great! But what would you and a million other retirees do for SS and medicare?

As for those folks, of whom you may be one, what about stocks, bonds, 401k's, 403b's (that's me), and other investments? Now we're in a foreign nation. Will Indiana mirror federal laws, or make radical changes? And if so, how will that affect our investments?

Since our president is now elected by the electoral college will we do the same in Indiana? Will each county get electoral votes, or will we keep the system of voting for governor (or president) the same as it is?

Speaking of voting for the governor, what about the Indiana Supreme Court? Many folks like the idea of a truly independent SCOTUS for life, where they don't have to worry about their jobs - ever. It has a downside, but it has an upside as well. Indiana SC has terms. Will we keep them or move to the federal model? Or will we change it?

And you olde people can now be even better guinea pigs! With no FDA or its replacement (yet) pharmacueticals would LOVE to find a new and unprotected population to test cancer drugs, Alzheimer's drugs, Covid drugs, arthritis drugs and so on without the pesky FDA and federal laws in the way. As a matter of fact, I bet they would just LOVE to help our new legislators write laws that would help protect the people of the sovereign nation of Indiana and yet allow for more efficient testing.

We could go on forever.

Succession would have been easier for the South prior to the 1870's without any significant population dependent upon the federal government. But today? We are so intertwined it is unimaginable.

I don't want anyone to think I am slamming everything. I am not! There are things the feds do that are stupid, wasteful, ridiculous, and egregious - but not all. At their core many federal programs are or were good and do good work. With every law and department there ARE winners and there ARE losers. The question is where the breakdown is and by how much.

Regards,

Doug

Doug, its far to late in the game for any of the things like investments. We were slaughtered in the last crash and never recovered. It is exactly what it is now. Yes the Medicare and supplement policy's. CKW has some serious reoccurring issues. Beyond serious.
I dont see enough people being like minded to make this happen but what if....?????

 

[rooster]

CM wait until this younger generation figures out that the 401k they were sold as the be all end all isn’t enough. I’m on a defined benefit and defined contribution retirement. I did the math when I was offered a 401k position. I’d have to put in 20% at an average return of 6% in order to get the same retirement that I’m on track for.

SSI was sold the older generations in the same way that the 401k is today. The day of reckoning is coming and it might be the catalyst for the collapse.I think that’s one of the primary reasons no one is retiring in their 50’s anymore.

 

[patience0830]

Ok, so a state secedes. What happens to all the federal land and military equipment within those borders. I can say with 100% certainty, the fed aint giving that stuff away.

We helped pay for it so we should get to keep what's ours.

 

[Tombs]

If the dollar collapses, the discussion of Social Security might be a moot one. I fully expect I'm tossing that SSI money into a fire and will never see dime one of it.

It's already collapsing, just compare the value of the dollar today to it 10 years ago.
All these people worried about losing social security just haven't had the realization yet that they put in (hypothetical numbers for a point) a million dollars and will get out 100. This would have also been true 10 years ago, or 20 years ago. It isn't going to be an overnight collapse.

The sad thing is that this doesn't affect just SSI, but your bank accounts too. Holding physical money has always been a losing proposition.

 

[BigRed]

One thing that is missing in all of this.
We CKW and myself) have paid into SS since we were kids. It is not all of our retirement but a good portion as CKW is on a well deserved disability from her SS and I receive mine. When the dip 's and politicians crashed the economy in 06/08 we lost most of whet we had for retirement and never recovered. It would be a struggle if that went away and many due to poor planning etc would surely perish.
As we paid into this rolling Ponsey scheme for 50+ years to just throw in the towel is not something I or a zillion others is ready to do.

I hate it but there it is.

You were paying for all the folks that came before you.

My children and grandchildren are paying for you.

Generational theft is real.... but it need not go on forever.

 

[BigRed]

A Fig for the Constitution – Abbeville Institute

www.abbevilleinstitute.org