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Ebola on the horizon?
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I can think of a couple.
Patient at Mt. Sinai Hospital in NYC being tested for Ebola -- high fever, reporting recent travel to west Africa
... Crap. That ain't good. The problem with Ebola is that you can spread it for days without knowing because no symptoms. NYC case could be very very serious.
... Crap. That ain't good. The problem with Ebola is that you can spread it for days without knowing because no symptoms. NYC case could be very very serious.
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How much trouble would you get in if you boarded a NYC subway today with red/brown skidmarks on your pants and a mouthful of ketchup that you spewed all over the train?
Probably none as most new Yorkers would think it's a stunt.
You don't spread it while not symptomatic but the problem is that the initial symptoms are similar to a cold/the flu.
Now the biggest problem when it comes to that, imho, is employers that do not see you having a cold/the flu as an excuse out of work. I know I went to work with the flu and was in a daze the whole time because if I didn't I'd lose my job [doctor's visit or not, didn't matter]. My boss, who was an older gentleman, was MAD at me a few days later for getting him sick and I looked straight at him and said, 'What should I have done? Given up on paying my mortgage and putting food on the table?'
Did I mention I was a fork lift driver and in no condition to be driving a fork lift around a busy factory? I even asked them to assign me to something else as I didn't feel safe operating the machinery while that sick and they refused... Would have been interesting if somebody got hurt after that - but thankfully nobody did.
I don't know anywhere that isn't like that in the last ~13 years I've been in this workforce.
Well - the only real difference is my own business that I own and operate because everybody is remote and can work from the comfort of their own bed if they want. That said - if they don't feel up to working, they can have the day or a few off. I try to be a reasonable employer.
Not to be too overtly xenophobic, but our neighbors to the south who routinely walk across our border and are welcomed with open arms by our government often have little to no understanding of sanitation or hygiene. Plus, as someone mentioned, all it will take are dozens of terrorists willing to sacrifice themselves for their beliefs to voluntarily contract the disease and then come here to spread it around.
Of course, my pessimism sometimes gets the best of me and I suspect that whether it's ebola or another virus it's simply a matter of time. The more crowded the planet becomes, the more frequently people travel, and with just the right sort of mutation we might all be exposed to something very, very nasty. On the other hand, I figure that we all have a 100% chance of death so why stress too much over it.
You think the difference with this outbreak is the mortality rate?
It's dropped from 90% to 60%....possibly letting people stay on their feet longer and expose more people than usual (?)
More cases in Nigeria now including another doctor.
Spreading faster in the original 3 countries also
Ebola death toll rises to 887 as spread of disease picks up speed - LA Times
It's dropped from 90% to 60%....possibly letting people stay on their feet longer and expose more people than usual (?)
More cases in Nigeria now including another doctor.
Spreading faster in the original 3 countries also
Ebola death toll rises to 887 as spread of disease picks up speed - LA Times
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Scary interview and horrifically terrifying statements by Sirra Leone doctor(returning home to Belgium).
Last night the Executive Director at Sierra Leone-based Wellbody Alliance Hospital, Raphael Frankfurter.
On a personal level, this hit home for me on my flight last night. Inevitably, I often get sick/malaria when I work in Kono, and it suddenly occurred to me before my flight that if I happen, for whatever reason, to get a fever on the airplane I'm going to be met at the gate by a team of Belgian health authorities in space-suits who are going to whisk me off to a hospital I've never been to before, without my family nearby, and possibly isolate me for the next 21 days (where I will be treated with much more respect than most Sierra Leoneans are when they present to public clinics). If I were to have Ebola, I would likely die alone without ever seeing my friends and family again. I know for a fact I don't have Ebola, so I brought plenty of fever medication along to self-medicate and avoid the hassle.
Ebola: 5 Questions for a Frontline Healthcare Worker in Sierra Leone*|*Andrew MacCalla
Last night the Executive Director at Sierra Leone-based Wellbody Alliance Hospital, Raphael Frankfurter.
On a personal level, this hit home for me on my flight last night. Inevitably, I often get sick/malaria when I work in Kono, and it suddenly occurred to me before my flight that if I happen, for whatever reason, to get a fever on the airplane I'm going to be met at the gate by a team of Belgian health authorities in space-suits who are going to whisk me off to a hospital I've never been to before, without my family nearby, and possibly isolate me for the next 21 days (where I will be treated with much more respect than most Sierra Leoneans are when they present to public clinics). If I were to have Ebola, I would likely die alone without ever seeing my friends and family again. I know for a fact I don't have Ebola, so I brought plenty of fever medication along to self-medicate and avoid the hassle.
Ebola: 5 Questions for a Frontline Healthcare Worker in Sierra Leone*|*Andrew MacCalla
So world war z, the walking dead, resident evil authors were correct in terms off how easy it will spread since humans are just too ××××××× ×××××× and arogant.
Couple interesting articles going in different directions:
Ebola outbreak: end of epidemic could be in sight, says scientist - Telegraph
Ebola outbreak: Saudi Arabia man suspected of contracting deadly disease - Telegraph
Ebola outbreak: end of epidemic could be in sight, says scientist - Telegraph
Ebola outbreak: Saudi Arabia man suspected of contracting deadly disease - Telegraph
8 out of 14 people in Nigeria that came into contact with Patrick Sawyer are now in isolation with symptoms of ebola.
These are health care workers also.
Nigeria acknowledges slow response in Ebola case - US News
Is it just me that thinks there is something different about this outbreak as compared to others?
These are health care workers also.
Nigeria acknowledges slow response in Ebola case - US News
Is it just me that thinks there is something different about this outbreak as compared to others?
How much trouble would you get in if you boarded a NYC subway today with red/brown skidmarks on your pants and a mouthful of ketchup that you spewed all over the train?
Sounds like my last trip to Wipe Castle.
Reports are that a suspected victim of ebola died in Saudi Arabia. Waiting for test results to come back.
This would be an interesting (scary) development when read in the context of possible "weaponization" of the virus. This sounds like it was a businessman, but still. Any confirmed case outside of Africa (or even outside central west Africa) will be alarming.
This would be an interesting (scary) development when read in the context of possible "weaponization" of the virus. This sounds like it was a businessman, but still. Any confirmed case outside of Africa (or even outside central west Africa) will be alarming.
Just bring lots of purell where ever you go and wash your hands and take showers...in other words, just basic hygiene can literally save your life. And if a guy that was testing monkeys doesn't show up for work the next day, doesn't call anybody else except the main character once and then bumps into you and sneezes blood on you...you might be in a reboot franchise.
Even more tips
Ebola is in most peoples minds at the moment, more so since the United states and Germany took the decision to fly Ebola patients from West Africa to hospitals in Atlanta and Hamburg.
Ebola Zaire is one of five strains of Ebola that are currently known, only one, Ebola Reston is not fatal in humans. Ebola Zaire, the strain currently in circulation has a death rate approaching 90%.
Durning pandemics or epidemics, which are localised disease outbreaks, our not so esteemed leaders will most likely start by issuing advisories to avoid large gatherings of people, baseball games, football matches that sort of thing. The next step is closures of such venues, games will be cancelled to limit the spread of the disease. One up from this is the closure of large institutions, such as college campuses. This is followed by the temporary closure of schools, and other public buildings such as council offices, job centres and libraries, and finally, cinemas and even churches may be closed. Airlines may cancel flights or flights into and out of affected areas may be banned by government order to contain an outbreak.
The final imposed restriction is curfew. Individuals will not be allowed to move around freely in order to limit the spread of the disease. This decision will not be taken lightly by governments…unless they are thinking Agenda 21 and seize the chance to reduce the population by a few million. Enforced curfew means that many of those who have not prepared are gong to die, either of dehydration and starvation, or by bullet when they break the curfew in their hunt for supplies. In view of the estimated amounts of unprepared people out there, security forces would in my opinion, be so overwhelmed by the numbers of those breaking the curfew they would not have the option of rounding them up, many will die.
As an individual, you may have already decided not to send your child to school, you may have already driven across the state or even the country to get an older child home from college. You are, if you are reading this, probably well stocked and good to go if you decide to stay away from everyone until the situation improves. How long do you need to stay holed up for? When will it be safe to leave your home? What precautions do you take on returning if you really have to go out?
There can be no rule of thumb for how long you need to stay isolated for, but if any of you think a month will do it you need to think again. Although diseases spread at different rates, have different incubation times and are infectious at different times during their course they all rely on one thing. A supply of suitable hosts.
The supply of hosts, in this case us, is known as the herd, and providing the herd is big enough the disease will keep spreading. If the herd is too small, the disease will die out, this is the basis of shutting down sporting fixtures and campuses, reducing the size of the herd.
Microbiologists, as a baseline figure will make an assumption based on how a disease has spread in the past. For example, that one infected person will go on to infect 20 others. Some diseases such as Hansen’s disease (leprosy) although contagious, has a much lower infection rate than this, other diseases such as pandemic influenza, are much higher. 20 is considered a mean average with a virulent flu strain. So one teacher can infect 20 kids. Each of those 20 kids can infect 20 more people, that makes 400 each of those 400 can infect 20 people, that makes 8000. Disease spreads very quickly, and if you have something with a short incubation period, you have thousands of infected people around at the same time. The problem is, so many of the worst diseases start off resembling the common cold, fever, aches, sore throat, headache. If presenting during the winter ‘flu season’ it can go un-noticed for even longer. By the time it is realised it is more that just a regular bug doing the rounds the situation is well on its way to being out of control, it will keep spreading as long as there is people for it to spread to.
How long you should remain isolated depends primarily on where you live. For those in towns and cities it will be for much longer than those living in rural retreats where human contact is minimal. Though those fortunate enough to live in such surroundings should remember that if the situation is dire enough, people will leave the cities looking for safety in less populated areas. In large centres of population there will be more people moving around, legally or otherwise, each of these individuals represents a possible uptick in the disease rates, allowing the spread to continue longer than it would have they stayed indoors and/or out of circulation. Even when the initial phase is on the wane, or has passed through an area, people travelling into that area can bring it back with them triggering a second wave of disease as people are now emerging from their isolation.
On finding out there may be a major event in the offing, that people were becoming sickened I would dissect the information I had and find out as much as I could about the condition. This would not take more than an hour or two.
On finding it is a definite threat I would go shopping….make sure that any holes in my preps are, as far as I am able, filled. I would be looking for the usual, easy cook long life foods and bottled water, lots of bottled water. If systems break down due to staff sickness or death other diseases may spring up and so many are waterborne I would store as much as I could. Waste collections may be affected, thick rubbish bags, and several more gallons of bleach to keep the outside areas of the home free from pathogens delivered by rats etc who will be attracted by mountains of garbage would be a priority.
Lots of pairs of disposable decorators coveralls, disposable gloves and a filtered face masks would be next. If I had to go out these would be discarded before re-entering my home.
Fly spray or fly papers should be on every preppers list, but most of us severely underestimate the amount we will need. Any crisis that causes rubbish to build will see a massive increase in their numbers, they are also effective germ carriers and spreaders and should be viewed as a threat to your general good health. Although they may not be capable of carrying the disease that is causing the crisis secondary illnesses often occur in such situations.
The idea of shopping at this point is to preserve my stored preps for the maximum amount of time. Pandemics and diseases go in waves, often returning several times before the crisis is finally over. After the first wave has passed, there is no guarantee that life will operate as it did before. Depending on the mortality rate of the disease the population may have thinned considerably, the food chain could well be affected and municipal services may well have stopped or be severly reduced. The last minute shopping trip could well be the last time you are able to supply yourself with what you need.
I would continue these trips, gathering as many extra supplies as I could until I heard of the first case within one hundred miles of my home. At that point self-imposed isolation comes into effect. One hundred miles is my buffer zone for disease, of course it could already be in my city, but practicalities dictate that I will not stay away from people because hundreds in Europe are dropping like flies. Maps of disease spread look like a locust swarm moving across the country and this allows disease spread to be tracked on an hour by hour basis. One of the few instances where mainstream media will be useful.
Once the doors were locked we would stay there for at least two weeks after the last case within 100 miles is reported. A government all clear would be weighed against how long it had been since the last case was reported in the area I have designated as my buffer zone. There is of course still the chance that someone from outside the area will bring the disease in with them causing a second wave of illness. You cannot seal off cities to prevent this. Going out after self-imposed isolation should be kept to a minimum for as long as possible, and if you don’t have to, then don’t do it. Far better to let those that are comfortable being out and about get on with it and see if any new cases emerge before exposing yourself and your family to that possibility.
As with most things we prepare for there is and will continue to be massive uncertainty during times of crisis. Diseases can be unpredictable and are capable of mutating at an alarming rate. New emerging diseases, and re-emerging diseases are often zoonoses, that is diseases that jump the species barrier fom animal to human and these unfortunately can be the most unpredictable of all.
The continental United States has seen unprecedented heat in many areas of late, drought conditions prevail in many areas. Animals will migrate in search of water, as humans have done for millennia. Bubonic plague is present in many animals in the Sierra Nevada area, hantavirus greatly favours dry conditions. West Nile virus and other mosquito spread disease is on the increase. Last winter the UK saw numerous floods, rodents are on the march, looking for drier, higher ground. They bring with them a massively increased risk of leptospirosis. Cholera is now not only a problem in Haiti, but in Cuba, having reached Havanna earlier this week. Cuba to the closest point of Key West is 90.5 miles…inside my buffer zone limit though admittedly the ocean makes spread less likely than if they were joined by land and the cholera is not yet epidemic let alone pandemic.
Pandemics have occurred before and they will happen again. Localised epidemics are quite common. A little thought as to how you would deal with not only the contagion but the other issues that could arise from it may well save you a great deal of grief in the long term. No crisis remains isolated, each and every one of them will have a knock on effect, you may survive the pandemic, but what about the three months worth of rubbish in the streets, the plague of rats and the thousands of unburied bodies left in its wake?
Think ahead and have a plan, and as I have learned from so many preppers, have a back up plan.
Ebola is in most peoples minds at the moment, more so since the United states and Germany took the decision to fly Ebola patients from West Africa to hospitals in Atlanta and Hamburg.
Ebola Zaire is one of five strains of Ebola that are currently known, only one, Ebola Reston is not fatal in humans. Ebola Zaire, the strain currently in circulation has a death rate approaching 90%.
Durning pandemics or epidemics, which are localised disease outbreaks, our not so esteemed leaders will most likely start by issuing advisories to avoid large gatherings of people, baseball games, football matches that sort of thing. The next step is closures of such venues, games will be cancelled to limit the spread of the disease. One up from this is the closure of large institutions, such as college campuses. This is followed by the temporary closure of schools, and other public buildings such as council offices, job centres and libraries, and finally, cinemas and even churches may be closed. Airlines may cancel flights or flights into and out of affected areas may be banned by government order to contain an outbreak.
The final imposed restriction is curfew. Individuals will not be allowed to move around freely in order to limit the spread of the disease. This decision will not be taken lightly by governments…unless they are thinking Agenda 21 and seize the chance to reduce the population by a few million. Enforced curfew means that many of those who have not prepared are gong to die, either of dehydration and starvation, or by bullet when they break the curfew in their hunt for supplies. In view of the estimated amounts of unprepared people out there, security forces would in my opinion, be so overwhelmed by the numbers of those breaking the curfew they would not have the option of rounding them up, many will die.
As an individual, you may have already decided not to send your child to school, you may have already driven across the state or even the country to get an older child home from college. You are, if you are reading this, probably well stocked and good to go if you decide to stay away from everyone until the situation improves. How long do you need to stay holed up for? When will it be safe to leave your home? What precautions do you take on returning if you really have to go out?
There can be no rule of thumb for how long you need to stay isolated for, but if any of you think a month will do it you need to think again. Although diseases spread at different rates, have different incubation times and are infectious at different times during their course they all rely on one thing. A supply of suitable hosts.
The supply of hosts, in this case us, is known as the herd, and providing the herd is big enough the disease will keep spreading. If the herd is too small, the disease will die out, this is the basis of shutting down sporting fixtures and campuses, reducing the size of the herd.
Microbiologists, as a baseline figure will make an assumption based on how a disease has spread in the past. For example, that one infected person will go on to infect 20 others. Some diseases such as Hansen’s disease (leprosy) although contagious, has a much lower infection rate than this, other diseases such as pandemic influenza, are much higher. 20 is considered a mean average with a virulent flu strain. So one teacher can infect 20 kids. Each of those 20 kids can infect 20 more people, that makes 400 each of those 400 can infect 20 people, that makes 8000. Disease spreads very quickly, and if you have something with a short incubation period, you have thousands of infected people around at the same time. The problem is, so many of the worst diseases start off resembling the common cold, fever, aches, sore throat, headache. If presenting during the winter ‘flu season’ it can go un-noticed for even longer. By the time it is realised it is more that just a regular bug doing the rounds the situation is well on its way to being out of control, it will keep spreading as long as there is people for it to spread to.
How long you should remain isolated depends primarily on where you live. For those in towns and cities it will be for much longer than those living in rural retreats where human contact is minimal. Though those fortunate enough to live in such surroundings should remember that if the situation is dire enough, people will leave the cities looking for safety in less populated areas. In large centres of population there will be more people moving around, legally or otherwise, each of these individuals represents a possible uptick in the disease rates, allowing the spread to continue longer than it would have they stayed indoors and/or out of circulation. Even when the initial phase is on the wane, or has passed through an area, people travelling into that area can bring it back with them triggering a second wave of disease as people are now emerging from their isolation.
On finding out there may be a major event in the offing, that people were becoming sickened I would dissect the information I had and find out as much as I could about the condition. This would not take more than an hour or two.
On finding it is a definite threat I would go shopping….make sure that any holes in my preps are, as far as I am able, filled. I would be looking for the usual, easy cook long life foods and bottled water, lots of bottled water. If systems break down due to staff sickness or death other diseases may spring up and so many are waterborne I would store as much as I could. Waste collections may be affected, thick rubbish bags, and several more gallons of bleach to keep the outside areas of the home free from pathogens delivered by rats etc who will be attracted by mountains of garbage would be a priority.
Lots of pairs of disposable decorators coveralls, disposable gloves and a filtered face masks would be next. If I had to go out these would be discarded before re-entering my home.
Fly spray or fly papers should be on every preppers list, but most of us severely underestimate the amount we will need. Any crisis that causes rubbish to build will see a massive increase in their numbers, they are also effective germ carriers and spreaders and should be viewed as a threat to your general good health. Although they may not be capable of carrying the disease that is causing the crisis secondary illnesses often occur in such situations.
The idea of shopping at this point is to preserve my stored preps for the maximum amount of time. Pandemics and diseases go in waves, often returning several times before the crisis is finally over. After the first wave has passed, there is no guarantee that life will operate as it did before. Depending on the mortality rate of the disease the population may have thinned considerably, the food chain could well be affected and municipal services may well have stopped or be severly reduced. The last minute shopping trip could well be the last time you are able to supply yourself with what you need.
I would continue these trips, gathering as many extra supplies as I could until I heard of the first case within one hundred miles of my home. At that point self-imposed isolation comes into effect. One hundred miles is my buffer zone for disease, of course it could already be in my city, but practicalities dictate that I will not stay away from people because hundreds in Europe are dropping like flies. Maps of disease spread look like a locust swarm moving across the country and this allows disease spread to be tracked on an hour by hour basis. One of the few instances where mainstream media will be useful.
Once the doors were locked we would stay there for at least two weeks after the last case within 100 miles is reported. A government all clear would be weighed against how long it had been since the last case was reported in the area I have designated as my buffer zone. There is of course still the chance that someone from outside the area will bring the disease in with them causing a second wave of illness. You cannot seal off cities to prevent this. Going out after self-imposed isolation should be kept to a minimum for as long as possible, and if you don’t have to, then don’t do it. Far better to let those that are comfortable being out and about get on with it and see if any new cases emerge before exposing yourself and your family to that possibility.
As with most things we prepare for there is and will continue to be massive uncertainty during times of crisis. Diseases can be unpredictable and are capable of mutating at an alarming rate. New emerging diseases, and re-emerging diseases are often zoonoses, that is diseases that jump the species barrier fom animal to human and these unfortunately can be the most unpredictable of all.
The continental United States has seen unprecedented heat in many areas of late, drought conditions prevail in many areas. Animals will migrate in search of water, as humans have done for millennia. Bubonic plague is present in many animals in the Sierra Nevada area, hantavirus greatly favours dry conditions. West Nile virus and other mosquito spread disease is on the increase. Last winter the UK saw numerous floods, rodents are on the march, looking for drier, higher ground. They bring with them a massively increased risk of leptospirosis. Cholera is now not only a problem in Haiti, but in Cuba, having reached Havanna earlier this week. Cuba to the closest point of Key West is 90.5 miles…inside my buffer zone limit though admittedly the ocean makes spread less likely than if they were joined by land and the cholera is not yet epidemic let alone pandemic.
Pandemics have occurred before and they will happen again. Localised epidemics are quite common. A little thought as to how you would deal with not only the contagion but the other issues that could arise from it may well save you a great deal of grief in the long term. No crisis remains isolated, each and every one of them will have a knock on effect, you may survive the pandemic, but what about the three months worth of rubbish in the streets, the plague of rats and the thousands of unburied bodies left in its wake?
Think ahead and have a plan, and as I have learned from so many preppers, have a back up plan.
I heard a radio interview, so i can't post the source, that talked about this particular outbreak being different. There was talk of it being more contagious as the virus is living longer outside the host and it was the most robust of the known strains. They also mentioned that the areas afected are more prone to people travelling. In the areas in central africa where it usually occurs, people are naturally isolated and travel is more limited.
It also appears to be less lethal than previous outbreaks, but that doesn't get much traction on the nightly scare-o-vision news.
Don't get me wrong, a 60% mortality rate ain't the common cold, but it a far cry from the 90% rates seen in many previous outbreaks. And those 60% are not exactly being treated at the Mayo Clinic either.
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