Ebola on the horizon?

[T.Lex]

Supposedly, the escaped patients are back under observation. Wondering how many they infected while they were out, of course.

Updated stats:
Ebola kills 84 in three days: UN

The Ebola virus killed 84 people in just three days, bringing the global death toll to 1,229, the World Health Organization said Tuesday.
...
The number of confirmed infections jumped by 113 over the three days, bringing the total number of cases to 2,240, the UN health agency said.

I can't find any updated graphs on how fast cases are being reported, but it seems like it is either speeding up or reached something of a plateau, overall. Not sure if the reporting agencies are aggregating over several days or not.

 

[ghuns]

I can't find any updated graphs on how fast cases are being reported, but it seems like it is either speeding up or reached something of a plateau, overall. Not sure if the reporting agencies are aggregating over several days or not.

Ebola, schmola. Haven't you heard? There's rioting in Murrica's heartland!

 

[T.Lex]

Ah, and I spoke too soon about the graphs. Thanks, Wikipedia!*



I suspect the lower curve is rough because of reporting (even though it is a daily average between days). Regardless, the graphs together show a clear upward trajectory.

*Since it is wiki, normal caveats apply.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

A patient who may have been exposed to the Ebola virus has been admitted to the Kaiser Permanente South Sacramento Medical Center in CA

 

[T.Lex]

In the hopefully brief absence of Guhpeeah7er (or however you pronounce it), a small update.

Liberia's Ebola clampdown turns violent as Asia fears new cases

The high points:

Violence erupted in an Ebola quarantine zone in Liberia's capital Wednesday as authorities struggled to contain the deadly disease, while new suspected cases in Asia sparked fears of it spreading from Africa.

Four residents were injured in Monrovia's West Point slum when soldiers opened fire on crowds and used tear gas as they tried to evacuate a state official and her family from the quarantined quarter.
...
Liberia's leader warned that local rituals were among the factors spreading the disease.
"We have been unable to control the spread due to continued denials, cultural burying practices, disregard for the advice of health workers and disrespect for the warnings by the government," Sirleaf said.

 

[T.Lex]

Following on that last post:
SEE IT: Riot police beat residents of quarantined Liberian slum in Ebola crisis - NY Daily News

The sanctions imposed Wednesday cut the Monrovia seaside slum known as West Point from its coast and confines about 75,000 of its residents to curb the spread of a deadly virus that has already killed about 1,350 people in West Africa.

Imagine a modern scenario where 75k Americans were physically isolated in a specific area. But enough about Detroit, this thread is about ebola.

 

[CountryBoy19]

A patient who may have been exposed to the Ebola virus has been admitted to the Kaiser Permanente South Sacramento Medical Center in CA

Heard on the radio this morning that the patient in Sacramento was given a clean bill of health, NO Ebola... that's good news... I also heard that both the doctor and nurse that were flown in with Ebola have been released with a clean bill of health.

IMHO, here is the point where a lot of people should be telling the panic-stricken nay-sayers, "I told you so! I told you that the American health-care system could treat these people and give them a fighting chance when they likely would have died if left in Africa. I told you that the healthcare workers in these state-of-the-art facilities wouldn't contract ebola. I told you that our worst threat is the UNKNOWN ebola carriers that could be anywhere else in this country, not the people we know about that are being treated in top-notch facilities."

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Yeah, I think it's ultimately much ado about nothing.

Following up on the two patients we brought back - It's pretty amazing that they're now "ebola-free". So whatever this top-secret treatment they were given seems to have worked. Wonder if we'll hear more about that moving forward.

Experimental Ebola treatment helped, Nancy Writebol?s son says - The Washington Post

Also, Russia is now saying they've developed a "vaccine" against Ebola. Not sure if Russia being Russia, or if actually true.

 

[T.Lex]

Welcome back. Still not sure how to pronounce your screen name.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Welcome back. Still not sure how to pronounce your screen name.

Heh, it's an abbreviation known by very few. So, over the years, people typically just say "GP". I've had a couple call me "Jeepa"... haha.

"Adam" also works. That, or His Dudeness, or uh, Duder, or El Duderino, if you're not into the brevity thing.

 

[T.Lex]

So many choices. I'll call you Stanley.

 

[RockofStrength]

Yeah, I think it's ultimately much ado about nothing.

Following up on the two patients we brought back - It's pretty amazing that they're now "ebola-free". So whatever this top-secret treatment they were given seems to have worked. Wonder if we'll hear more about that moving forward.

Experimental Ebola treatment helped, Nancy Writebol?s son says - The Washington Post

Also, Russia is now saying they've developed a "vaccine" against Ebola. Not sure if Russia being Russia, or if actually true.

I wonder if they're truly "Ebola-free" or just no longer contagious in the open air? Everything I've read says that Ebola is still transmissible for 2 weeks or more in blood, semen etc even once the disease is cured.

 

[ghuns]

I wonder if they're truly "Ebola-free" or just no longer contagious in the open air? Everything I've read says that Ebola is still transmissible for 2 weeks or more in blood, semen etc even once the disease is cured.

There is no virus detectable in either patients blood.

 

[T.Lex]

Couple updates.

From WHO:
WHO warns of 'shadow zones', hidden cases in Ebola outbreak | Reuters

"WHO is working on an Ebola road map document; it's really an operational document how to fight Ebola," WHO spokeswoman Fadela Chaib said at a news briefing. "It details the strategy for WHO and health partners for six to nine months to come."
Chaib, asked whether the timeline meant that the United Nations health agency expected the epidemic now raging in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone to continue into 2015, said: "Frankly, no one knows when this outbreak of Ebola will end."

And, earlier reports from Nigeria said they had it confined to people who had direct access to the traveler on his way to the US.

Turns out, not so much.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/2-new...lled-1st-to-spread-beyond-traveller-1.2743735

Nigerian Health Minister Onyebuchi Chukwu says the country has confirmed two new Ebola cases, the first two that have spread beyond those who had direct contact with the ill traveller from Liberia who brought the disease to Nigeria.

Chukwu said Friday in Abuja, Nigeria's capital, that the two new cases are spouses of patients who had direct contact with Liberian-American Patrick Sawyer, who flew into the country last month with the virus and infected 11 others before he died.
The two are spouses of caregivers who treated Sawyer, both of whom later died.

It's kinda like a pyramid scheme. One person gets it, and they give it to 2 people, who give it to 2 people.... Even looking at the graphs, at this point it looks (to me) very much like an exponential formula.

 

[Justus]

It's kinda like a pyramid scheme. One person gets it, and they give it to 2 people, who give it to 2 people.... Even looking at the graphs, at this point it looks (to me) very much like an exponential formula.

Twitter had snippets of the Congressional testimony from the US health workers that were over there. The main doctor said that he expects "waves" of new cases to come in 3-4 week intervals, possibly with huge spikes in the numbers.

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, any of the charting of this needs to be viewed with an understanding that there are serious reporting issues.

 

[CountryBoy19]

Yeah, I think it's ultimately much ado about nothing.

I wouldn't say much ado about nothing... more like much ado about THE WRONG THING

People were throwing fits over them bringing the 2 health-care workers into the states to be treated. Anybody with a lick of common sense knows that it's not those 2 people that are the major threat. It's the common traveller that flies as-if everything is ok and he ends up infecting 40 people on his flight, those 40 people have no idea until they've infected 200... at least with these 2 health-care workers they knew it up front and the cases were handled with the appropriate caution.

 

[T.Lex]

New Ebola cases in DR Congo; doctor dies in Liberia - CNN.com

New ebola cases in new country - Democratic Republic of Congo. For those USians unfamiliar with African geography, Congo is roughly east-southeast from the current outbreak centered around Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Like, several countries southeast.

Now, the "good" news is that it is unclear what strain of ebola this might be. If it isn't the same "Zaire" strain, it might be completely unrelated and less of a danger.

ETA:
Well, this should set everyone's mind at ease regarding the DRC outbreak:
http://www.france24.com/en/20140824-dr-congo-confirms-first-cases-ebola/

The two new cases had "no link to [the epidemic] raging in West Africa," Kabange said, adding that further tests were under way.
"The experience gained during the six past Ebola epidemics will be put to use to contain the illness," he said.
Kabange said the outbreak was "contained" in the area near Jera, more than 1,200 kilometres (750 miles) northeast of the Congolese capital Kinshasa.

ETA2:
http://www.cubiclane.com/2014/08/24/who-expert-in-west-africa-infected-by-the-ebola-virus-12984
An expert epidemiologist with WHO contracted ebola in Sierra Leone.

So, this is someone who, we can assume, was always on-guard for ebola, but still was unlucky enough to get it. I have to think that is a bad thing.

 

[T.Lex]

Generally, WHO was updating stats on the ebola outbreak every couple days, at the most. The longest gap was 4 days (Aug. 15-19).
WHO | Ebola virus disease (EVD)

It has now been 5 days since the last update. Still recognizing information gathering in that part of the world is difficult, it is an anomaly that it has been this long without an update.

ETA
Ok, they updated the WHO page, but for the outbreak in the Congo.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_27_ebola/en/

Between 28 July and 18 August 2014, a total of 24 suspected cases of haemorrhagic fever, including 13 deaths, have been identified... . The other 11 cases are currently being treated in isolation centres.

...
The index case and the 80 contacts have no history of travel to the EVD-affected countries in West Africa (Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, or Sierra Leone) or history of contact with individuals from the affected areas. At this time, it is believed that the outbreak in DRC is unrelated to the ongoing outbreak in west Africa.

 

[Bendrx]

Just because I think it's good to keep in mind, and since I haven't posted in a while....Mold can survive bleach, get some pharma grade and not so much, but store bought bleach doesn't easily kill mold. Also, N95 or whatever masks you may chose only filter the air that goes through them. Air will take the path of least resistance and go around the mask. Better than nothing, but not great and I think "a little bit of ebola" is about as bad as "a breath of ebola". No need in thinking that you're safe when you're not is all I'm saying. Please resume the standard paranoia.