Why Prep? The surprisingly solid mathematical case.

[cosermann]

It's been about 4 years since this article was last shared on INGO, 6 since it was first published in 2018. The question shouldn't be "why prep," but rather "why in the world would you NOT prep?"

The article doesn't get into the preparedness paradox, or the various cognitive & emotional biases that prevent people from prepping (not really in the author's wheelhouse I'd guess). But nonetheless, it's good stuff. Re-sharing as it recently came up again in conversation with some friends, and there are always new people coming to INGO (esp. in the last 4 yrs.). Enjoy.

==>> The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper <<==

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

Good article. Having lived through the aftermath of two tonados and then COVID, it only makes sense to be prepared for a disaster. Add in Coronal Mass Ejection, EMP, Chicom Biowarfare and many other threats and prepping makes sense. Include the vunerability of total dependency on the electric grid and just-in-time delivery of food/supplies, with only a three day inventory on hand, and the case for prepping grows.

 

[1nderbeard]

You'll have to excuse me...I'm out to buy another box.

 

[Steve]

Those equations made my head hurt! But a good article nevertheless

 

[Timjoebillybob]

Good article. Having lived through the aftermath of two tonados and then COVID, it only makes sense to be prepared for a disaster. Add in Coronal Mass Ejection, EMP, Chicom Biowarfare and many other threats and prepping makes sense. Include the vunerability of total dependency on the electric grid and just-in-time delivery of food/supplies, with only a three day inventory on hand, and the case for prepping grows.

Several years ago on a much more liberal site, I mentioned that I prepped. This was in a discusion about preppers. And how evil they were and just wanted civil war. One guy in particular was quite offended, and iirc commented on my parentage, IQ, schooling, called me a hoarder, and of course the size of my genitalia. Then asked what I needed preps for. So I started listing various reasons. Starting off with the "minor" and then increasing. By the time I was done I'm not sure if he had seen the light or not, but he definitely wasn't as flippant. I think his response was something along the lines of "I think I need a drink". Oh and civil war wasn't one I had listed.

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

Several years ago on a much more liberal site, I mentioned that I prepped. This was in a discusion about preppers. And how evil they were and just wanted civil war. One guy in particular was quite offended, and iirc commented on my parentage, IQ, schooling, and of course the size of my genitalia. Then asked what I needed preps for. So I started listing various reasons. Starting off with the "minor" and then increasing. By the time I was done I'm not sure if he had seen the light or not, but he definitely wasn't as flippant. I think his response was something along the lines of "I think I need a drink". Oh and civil war wasn't one I had listed.

For 10 years of my Federal civilian career, I was an Emergency Manager. We had an annual requirement to do a local Hazard Assesment. It was broken down into 40 specific items that could possibly happen or have an impact at our location. The items were split between man-made and natural-disaster. It encompassed everything from war down to a wind storm. We ranked each item on a matrix of Probability verses Severity. Every year, our highest threat was Tornado. (Like the rest of Indiana).

We then looked at what local Capibilities we had to deal with any of those possible Hazards. Did we have back-up power and comms? Did we have a Shelter In Place program and was everyone trained? How close was the Fire Dept? The Capabilities assesment gave us a true picture of how ready we were for each Hazard. It was just prepping but on a bigger scale.

 

[Timjoebillybob]

For 10 years of my Federal civilian career, I was an Emergency Manager. We had an annual requirement to do a local Hazard Assesment. It was broken down into 40 specific items that could possibly happen or have an impact at our location. The items were split between man-made and natural-disaster. It encompassed everything from war down to a wind storm. We ranked each item on a matrix of Probability verses Severity. Every year, our highest threat was Tornado. (Like the rest of Indiana).

We then looked at what local Capibilities we had to deal with any of those possible Hazards. Did we have back-up power and comms? Did we have a Shelter In Place program and was everyone trained? How close was the Fire Dept? The Capabilities assesment gave us a true picture of how ready we were for each Hazard. It was just prepping but on a bigger scale.

I think I had 20 or so things listed, mostly natural. Although things like industrial accidents were included, think Bhopal. Of which a train car carrying iirc a larger amount than what was spilled goes through NWI on a regular basis, or at least did. But what I think really did him in was when I started listing things I didn't prep for, real teotwawkit crap. Large CME, super volcanoes, dinosaur killing meteorites,...

 

[Thor]

I think I had 20 or so things listed, mostly natural. Although things like industrial accidents were included, think Bhopal. Of which a train car carrying iirc a larger amount than what was spilled goes through NWI on a regular basis, or at least did. But what I think really did him in was when I started listing things I didn't prep for, real teotwawkit crap. Large CME, super volcanoes, dinosaur killing meteorites,...

We are the first species on the planet to have the ability to perchance forestall our extinction, yet on the verge of walking amongst the stars we have turned to staring at our palms with self obsession. Space program? Meh, space is boring look at these pictures of cats...or my lunch.

Reminds me of "Lake's Law" coined by a fighter pilot friend of mine. All of the worlds problems can be defined by two things, People are idiots and there are too damn many people.

The next Yucatan Impactor will wipe the slate clean again. I wonder what the evolved cockroaches will look like.

 

[smokingman]

I was part of the CERT program (https://www.fema.gov/emergency-mana...es-webinars/community-emergency-response-team ) while we lived in Minnesota. It helped me a bit in being better prepared. The bigger picture though was CERT members freedom of movement vs other civilians after a disaster. Not saying that was the main reason I did it but....

 

[Leadeye]

I see the need for prep at three levels, and that's how I plan.

Short time, arrives quick, but also departs. Things like bad weather, ice storms etc. These are common problems at various levels.

Medium time, economic or infrastructure disruptions that arrive slower but last longer. Not something commonly faced, like the great depression, or plagues, but have their place in history.

Long time, unknown. Nuc war, comets, zombies etc. Really bad. Usually the subject of stories, but not beyond possibility.

My focus is on short and medium range stuff as I can't really plan for the long problems.

 

[Mij]

Mathematics aside, I’m of the opinion to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I do my best to insure my home, life, auto. Why not insure my survival?

 

[XDdreams]

What is the best way to discuss prepping with a spouse that feels weird about it?

 

[Mij]

 

[Ziggidy]

What is the best way to discuss prepping with a spouse that feels weird about it?

Discuss?

 

[indyblue]

I'd love to able to prep more, but you must be at least a little affluent to afford it.
I have been collecting physical books on the subject and printing internet articles and how-to's to hard copy for preservation. Always adding to my supply of reloading components little by little as well.

Still need much more esp. related to food; life straws, canned/dehydrated food and power generation.

 

[XDdreams]

Discuss?

Crap didn't think of that.

 

[XDdreams]

Discuss?

All kidding aside, any talk of putting some food back or setting up water collection, etc is met one of two ways.

It's outright dismissed or it becomes a joke. I explain what I feel is a possibility, and it's accepted with a wave and a comment of I love you but you're crazy.

Dialogue is always open and constant but it would be so much better to have a united front.

 

[Leadeye]

My spouse goes along because it's almost all level 1 and maybe 2 problems. She buys, stores, and keeps track of items we use every day from food to TP.

Both of us have experienced week long power outages and a few years back were unable to get out due to ice. Those are things that just happen and having some extra plus electrical generation makes life easier.

 

[jerrob]

What is the best way to discuss prepping with a spouse that feels weird about it?

Have her go without food and water for 48 hours or so and wake her out of a dead sleep with screaming every few to hours to simulate a home invasion, she'll come around.......................and you'll find out how comfortable your couch really is.

 

[actaeon277]

Show your wife, that even the 'experts' in the government (I know, you won't hear me use those words together often) tell you to prepare for emergencies.
Point out some instances of people being on their own for awhile after emergencies.


fema .pdf

https://www.fema.gov/pdf/areyouready/basic_preparedness.pdf

Plan Ahead for Disasters | Ready.gov

www.ready.gov

How to Build a Kit for Emergencies

NASHVILLE – What goes into an emergency supplies kit?Ready.gov and get a list of what you’ll need if you have to survive for several days after a disaster.

www.fema.gov

.pdf

https://www.ready.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/are-you-ready-guide.pdf

Point out how things were during Covid, and that wasn't that much of an emergency for the supply system.
How about Katrina?