I got out in 1998. Was not woke,but Clinton gutted and eliminated quite a few bases in the USA...and yet even back then we where building more bases in other countries. Currently we have embassies in 1/3 of the countries in the world,but bases in half. Interesting times.Combine that with the leading cause of death for 18-45 year olds (a population also referred to as "Military aged") is drug overdoses (primarily fentanyl) and we have a shrinking pool to draw the 23%.
I've been retired (from the USAF, not from working) so long it's like we were flying balloons back when I was in uniform. Not literally, but from a "we didn't have this woke BS 86-07" standpoint.
All branches are affected by a lack of newbies coming through the door. Even when recruitment was in the dumpster pre-911 the USMC made it's goals IIRC. That branch will be affected more than the others by not making recruitment goals. Basically 20% turnover every year IIRC.
Bigger problem: officers don't get promoted by quoting Jim Lovell (Houston, we have a problem.) I saw this in the mid-late 90s during Slick Willie's reign of making all government larger except the DoD (that's how Algore reinvented government.) Using the pre-Desert Storm standards, a lot of units weren't fully capable of carrying out the wartime requirements. A writer for the Air Force Times (pre-Gannett, back when it was a good read) used the analogy, "The Air Force doesn't measure how much water is in the cattle's watering tank, they count the number of dead cows in the pen" referring to the cannibalization of aircraft for spare parts and treating wartime spares (aircraft parts on aircraft pallets ready to go in 24-72 hours) as an auxiliary warehouse.
Just to review: the Military needs young folks, a lot of them.
Any friendly wagers on a draft within 3 years?