Vaccines and stuff: Pt 2

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  • jamil

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    Agreed. I always thought that our side presented its arguments with measured, researched data, while the left is the side screaming wild conspiracy theories. Well, I guess that I'm not too old to learn after all.

    Bear with me. Why did you pick the side you picked? Is it because it's the conservative side? Who is the "us"? I don't think we should have any expectation that we're the side that contains truth, and thay they're just poopy. It's not the side that determines what's true. It's the measuring and researching and drawning conclusions from all that which makes the conclusions, what I'd call model-driven. If you've picked the side you're on in a given domain, because of the side itself you have side, not a model.

    Having a side means you short-circuit whatever internal model you've built of how reality works. I think everyone has a model of reality. Some are more or less accurate than others. Maybe call it a worldview. It's the intuitions, knowledge about the world, critical thinking, reasoning, experience, and so on. And people use this to evaluate information. But not always. Instead of making sense of inputs using the model, you just short circuit the model and go straight to predetermined conclusions based on the side.

    For example, if you're a never-trumper, the conclusion is always predictably anti-trump, without regard to knowable facts or circumstances. And we kinda test this on each other when we disagree. We try changing inputs that should reasonably change the outcome if the opponent is running a reasonable model. If the opponent's conclusions are still the the predicted ones, we think the person is running a side. Of course not in that language. We call it bias. Never-trumpers don't generally use their model of reality to make decisions about Trump, they've already decided to take the anti-trump point of view.

    This doesn't just work like that on the left. Consider always-trumpers. They tend to have already decided that no matter the inputs they have a predictable answer to every question about trump. Regardless of any inputs it's always a pro-trump outcome, as much as any never-trumper conclusion is always anti-trump.

    I wouldn't say it's accurate to think that the left always has a side and that we should expect the right to always have a model. Individuals on the left and right have both. And you can usually tell when they're running just a side. You can accurately predict their conclusions in a given domain of issues by knowing nothing more than which side they're already on.

    In other words, conservatives are humans too and have the same instincts as anyone else. We're groupish, too. We're biased too. We take shortcuts to arrive at the conclusions we want, too. We like to pick our arguments according to our identity just like people on the left do. As much as we like to say that we think, and they feel is not as true as we'd like it to be.

    I don't think people rejoice when their beliefs are confirmed even at the expense of someone's suffering. I don't think it's a celebration of the suffering, it's a celebration of the confirmation. The more I think about it, the less I think it's disgusting. It's just people being human. It's instincts that we'd probably be better off overriding.
     

    wtburnette

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    Having a side means you short-circuit whatever internal model you've built of how reality works. I think everyone has a model of reality. Some are more or less accurate than others. Maybe call it a worldview. It's the intuitions, knowledge about the world, critical thinking, reasoning, experience, and so on. And people use this to evaluate information. But not always. Instead of making sense of inputs using the model, you just short circuit the model and go straight to predetermined conclusions based on the side.

    I don't agree with that, at least not to an extent. The Left is absolutely either evil, insane or a combination of both. Being against them isn't really picking any side, outside of going against those who deny reality at all cost.
     

    oze

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    Bear with me. Why did you pick the side you picked? Is it because it's the conservative side? Who is the "us"? I don't think we should have any expectation that we're the side that contains truth, and thay they're just poopy. It's not the side that determines what's true. It's the measuring and researching and drawning conclusions from all that which makes the conclusions, what I'd call model-driven. If you've picked the side you're on in a given domain, because of the side itself you have side, not a model.

    Having a side means you short-circuit whatever internal model you've built of how reality works. I think everyone has a model of reality. Some are more or less accurate than others. Maybe call it a worldview. It's the intuitions, knowledge about the world, critical thinking, reasoning, experience, and so on. And people use this to evaluate information. But not always. Instead of making sense of inputs using the model, you just short circuit the model and go straight to predetermined conclusions based on the side.

    For example, if you're a never-trumper, the conclusion is always predictably anti-trump, without regard to knowable facts or circumstances. And we kinda test this on each other when we disagree. We try changing inputs that should reasonably change the outcome if the opponent is running a reasonable model. If the opponent's conclusions are still the the predicted ones, we think the person is running a side. Of course not in that language. We call it bias. Never-trumpers don't generally use their model of reality to make decisions about Trump, they've already decided to take the anti-trump point of view.

    This doesn't just work like that on the left. Consider always-trumpers. They tend to have already decided that no matter the inputs they have a predictable answer to every question about trump. Regardless of any inputs it's always a pro-trump outcome, as much as any never-trumper conclusion is always anti-trump.

    I wouldn't say it's accurate to think that the left always has a side and that we should expect the right to always have a model. Individuals on the left and right have both. And you can usually tell when they're running just a side. You can accurately predict their conclusions in a given domain of issues by knowing nothing more than which side they're already on.

    In other words, conservatives are humans too and have the same instincts as anyone else. We're groupish, too. We're biased too. We take shortcuts to arrive at the conclusions we want, too. We like to pick our arguments according to our identity just like people on the left do. As much as we like to say that we think, and they feel is not as true as we'd like it to be.

    I don't think people rejoice when their beliefs are confirmed even at the expense of someone's suffering. I don't think it's a celebration of the suffering, it's a celebration of the confirmation. The more I think about it, the less I think it's disgusting. It's just people being human. It's instincts that we'd probably be better off overriding.
    "our side", in this context, refers to like thinkers, and drilling down further, like thinkers about perceived reactions and overreactions to the Covid 19 pandemic. Sorry, I thought I was clear.
     

    Ingomike

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    Wayne Root is an astute odds analyst.

    “A top insurance analyst has analyzed the CDC’s own death rate data and it matches the data released by the UK government.”

    “There is a 7% increase in death for each time you take the Covid jab. In other words, your odds of dropping dead suddenly go up 7% if you take one Covid jab…they go up 14% after your 2nd jab…they go up 21% after your third jab…28% after your fourth…and 35% after you get another dose. And so on and so on.”

    “Once you get to jab number ten, your odds of dying would rise by 70%. Are those deadly enough odds for you?“

    “Let’s say you had a loaded gun in your hand to play a game of “Russian Roulette.” Each time you pull the trigger your odds of dying go up by 7%. Would a 35% higher chance of dying by trigger pull number five worry you? Would you pull the trigger one more time as the odds increase?”

    “But I have a warning about that 7% increase for every Covid jab you take. I believe that’s a best-case scenario.”

     
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    Jesus Christ, "Died Suddenly" people.
    The story I read had Jesus (at least his human flesh) spending several hours dying slowly from a mix of blood loss and asphyxiation. I wouldn't put that in the "died suddenly" category.

    I think that it is at least possible that the shots are causing some of these unexplained deaths. But not every person who dies young was killed by the mRNA shots.
    I agree with this. It's a statistical improbability that every young person dying from cardiovascular events are attributable to the vax. It's on par with the idea Biden rec'd 81 million legitimate votes. Pretty f'n unlikely. The frustrating part now is that TPTB are refusing to allow discussion of any possible connection between the vax and the excess deaths. During the vidsanity heyday, TPTB attempted to declare vax status to every death with emphasis on the unvax'd dying due to their unvax'd status. Now? Don't even ask about the vax status of 13yo's dying from stroke or myocardial infarction. When the data helps the TPTB they blast it loud, far and wide. When the data are bad for TPTB, they label it misinformation. This only adds to build more suspicion about the vax. Google/Youtube label as misinformation video of Pfizer Research and Development executive stating the vax is harming people or that Pfizer performs GOF on organisms for profit. That's not misinformation. That's information that is damning to the agenda of TPTB. I can't speak for anyone else, but I haven't gotten the impression that anybody is gleeful about the excess deaths of young people. I know that I personally hope the vax turns out to be more benign than deadly. So far, it appears my hoping has been ineffective because there exist a clear connection between vaccination and early sudden death, albeit not 1:1.
     

    Timjoebillybob

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    You are missing some big players in this, foreign operators create a lot of this stuff to keep things stirred up. Conservatives are not very good a fact checking memes but there is a cadre that do love to fact check them a rub other conservatives noises in it to show their superiority.

    I guarantee that us not happening on left forums, that is why the entire left believe everything they see negative about Trump…
    It sounds like you're praising the left for not questioning anything as a group, but damning conservatives that do question. Is that right?
    Wayne Root is an astute odds analyst.

    “A top insurance analyst has analyzed the CDC’s own death rate data and it matches the data released by the UK government.”

    “There is a 7% increase in death for each time you take the Covid jab. In other words, your odds of dropping dead suddenly go up 7% if you take one Covid jab…they go up 14% after your 2nd jab…they go up 21% after your third jab…28% after your fourth…and 35% after you get another dose. And so on and so on.”

    “Once you get to jab number ten, your odds of dying would rise by 70%. Are those deadly enough odds for you?“

    “Let’s say you had a loaded gun in your hand to play a game of “Russian Roulette.” Each time you pull the trigger your odds of dying go up by 7%. Would a 35% higher chance of dying by trigger pull number five worry you? Would you pull the trigger one more time as the odds increase?”

    “But I have a warning about that 7% increase for every Covid jab you take. I believe that’s a best-case scenario.”

    One thing I notice missing from that is any cites. Also what is the base percentage that increases? If it's 1% a 7% increase would be 1.07%, if it's .000001 a 7% increase would be .00000107%. But when he talks about the russian roulette scenario it's like he's talking about a straight 7x increase, not a percentage increase. Or at least it seems to me he is trying to grossly inflate the increase among his readers. Figuring a 6 shot revolver there is 16.667% chance of it firing on the first pull with one random chamber loaded. A 7% increase would raise that to 17.8333%. Which isn't how it works. Heck by pull 5 the chance would only be 23.376%

    A 7% increase times not equal a 35% increase.
     

    BugI02

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    You're assuming all of these young people have life insurance. A lot of companies offer it, but its usually just some small multiple of one's salary. Very few young folks have big life insurance policies, would be my guess. These days if you encounter an expected tragedy at a young age, your survivors just set up a GoFundMe to cover funerals, college, etc.
    Nothing to stop (a progressive) government from bailing out the life insurance companies when they get into trouble. Might even use medicare/SS savings to do it
     

    BugI02

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    Wayne Root is an astute odds analyst.

    “A top insurance analyst has analyzed the CDC’s own death rate data and it matches the data released by the UK government.”

    “There is a 7% increase in death for each time you take the Covid jab. In other words, your odds of dropping dead suddenly go up 7% if you take one Covid jab…they go up 14% after your 2nd jab…they go up 21% after your third jab…28% after your fourth…and 35% after you get another dose. And so on and so on.”

    “Once you get to jab number ten, your odds of dying would rise by 70%. Are those deadly enough odds for you?“

    “Let’s say you had a loaded gun in your hand to play a game of “Russian Roulette.” Each time you pull the trigger your odds of dying go up by 7%. Would a 35% higher chance of dying by trigger pull number five worry you? Would you pull the trigger one more time as the odds increase?”

    “But I have a warning about that 7% increase for every Covid jab you take. I believe that’s a best-case scenario.”

    I'm seeing the odds of a 55 year old man dying from all causes is 1 in 46000

    That would be ~0.000021739

    With 2 shots and three boosters, you are those odds would rise 35% to 0.000029348
    or a bit more than 1 in 34000

    Probably not something the average Joe would really notice but also not a risk I would take for so little benefit in terms of prevention or lessening of severity
     

    Shadow01

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    While I do not like misinformation I am curious to see the posts you guys made that are the inverse of this for the counting of all deaths as wuwho flu…
    We’re just using the standard set by the crazy communists as we move forward. It does no good to look back and find minor inconsistencies as a way to debunk current conversations.
     

    Shadow01

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    Wayne Root is an astute odds analyst.

    “A top insurance analyst has analyzed the CDC’s own death rate data and it matches the data released by the UK government.”

    “There is a 7% increase in death for each time you take the Covid jab. In other words, your odds of dropping dead suddenly go up 7% if you take one Covid jab…they go up 14% after your 2nd jab…they go up 21% after your third jab…28% after your fourth…and 35% after you get another dose. And so on and so on.”

    “Once you get to jab number ten, your odds of dying would rise by 70%. Are those deadly enough odds for you?“

    “Let’s say you had a loaded gun in your hand to play a game of “Russian Roulette.” Each time you pull the trigger your odds of dying go up by 7%. Would a 35% higher chance of dying by trigger pull number five worry you? Would you pull the trigger one more time as the odds increase?”

    “But I have a warning about that 7% increase for every Covid jab you take. I believe that’s a best-case scenario.”

    Looks like an effective way to reduce registered democrats.
     

    jamil

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    I don't agree with that, at least not to an extent. The Left is absolutely either evil, insane or a combination of both. Being against them isn't really picking any side, outside of going against those who deny reality at all cost.
    There are people on the left that are sane and ally themselves on the issues where there is agreement. Bret Weinstein is not a conservative and has been an important voice against the insane covid response. Joe Rogan. Tim Pool. Many others. I mean even Bill Maher acts like he’s being red-pilled on certain topics. Peter Boghossian. James Lindsey. Even Jordan Peterson, although one could make the argument that Peterson became more right wing. But all those people are from the left. They don’t identify as conservatives. But they do say that the left left them. I think their capacity to understand the folly of what’s become the mainstream left wing demonstrates what I’m saying, they have a model that drives their thinking, not a side.
     
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    jamil

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    "our side", in this context, refers to like thinkers, and drilling down further, like thinkers about perceived reactions and overreactions to the Covid 19 pandemic. Sorry, I thought I was clear.
    That’s how I understood it. But why do people overreact? Why wouldn’t people on the right. And I’m using that in the same way you meant “us”. Why do people have to assume every unexpected death must be the vaccine? And then if you don’t agree that it has to be, they call you blind. That’s predictable enough to say they don’t have a model, they have a side.
     

    jamil

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    I'm seeing the odds of a 55 year old man dying from all causes is 1 in 46000

    That would be ~0.000021739

    With 2 shots and three boosters, you are those odds would rise 35% to 0.000029348
    or a bit more than 1 in 34000

    Probably not something the average Joe would really notice but also not a risk I would take for so little benefit in terms of prevention or lessening of severity
    Especially since there really is no upside to taking a booster. Well. Other than earning compliance points.
     

    wtburnette

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    There are people on the left that are sane and ally themselves on the issues where there is agreement. Bret Weinstein is not a conservative and has been an important voice against the insane covid response. Joe Rogan. Tim Pool. Many others. I mean even Bill Maher acts like he’s being red-pilled on certain topics. Peter Boghossian. James Lindsey. Even Jordan Peterson, although one could make the argument that Peterson became more right wing. But all those people are from the left. They don’t identify as conservatives. But they do say that the left left them. I think their capacity to understand the folly of what’s become the mainstream left wing demonstrates what I’m saying, they have a model that drives their thinking, not a side.

    I'm pretty sure they're all classic Liberals who are on the Left, but far closer to the center (and the rest of us) then the Leftists in charge who are now running the show.
     

    jamil

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    I'm pretty sure they're all classic Liberals who are on the Left, but far closer to the center (and the rest of us) then the Leftists in charge who are now running the show.
    I mean. They have some lefty views. Welfare state. Basic income. Some anti gun. Classical liberalism is very close to libertarian except for the bat **** crazy Ayn Rand stuff. So I would not classify them as classical liberals except for Tim Pool and possibly James Linsey. But they are closer to the center. And to the wacky left wing, they think “center” is right wing!

    If we’re saying “left” means exclusively the extreme left, the wackadoos, that leaves out the entire center. But that brings up an observation. If a person has a side rather than a model—that is to say one bypasses the thinking part of sense-making, and just going to the conclusions of the side—I think that person more likely is within the extreme depths of that side.
     

    BugI02

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    I mean. They have some lefty views. Welfare state. Basic income. Some anti gun. Classical liberalism is very close to libertarian except for the bat **** crazy Ayn Rand stuff. So I would not classify them as classical liberals except for Tim Pool and possibly James Linsey. But they are closer to the center. And to the wacky left wing, they think “center” is right wing!

    If we’re saying “left” means exclusively the extreme left, the wackadoos, that leaves out the entire center. But that brings up an observation. If a person has a side rather than a model—that is to say one bypasses the thinking part of sense-making, and just going to the conclusions of the side—I think that person more likely is within the extreme depths of that side.
    I am skeptical that the center is as well populated as you think it is. I have seen scant evidence of true centrist thinking in the last 25 to 30 years
     

    jamil

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    I am skeptical that the center is as well populated as you think it is. I have seen scant evidence of true centrist thinking in the last 25 to 30 years

    We’re not discussing how many people are in the center. It’s not even a discussion about the center. It’s a discussion about people on the left who still have some sense and use it to make decisions about political positions. It’s not just the right wing pushing back on vaccines.

    I don’t disagree that people in the center have dwindled. But it’s enough that Democrats complain about DINOS, and Republicans complained about RINOS.
     
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