To mask or not to mask....That is the question. Part II

[tim87tr]

I think you missed a little between page 1 and page 87.

I did go back several pages and didn't see any mention of actual numbers. What does INGO believe to be real statistics?

I'm at the point that even friends I've known my entire career, have not wanted to discuss the reality of what happened the last year. This forum appears to be the place that's direct and honest about what they think. That's what I want to hear. It is good for the soul.

 

[ditcherman]

I did go back several pages and didn't see any mention of actual numbers. What does INGO believe to be real statistics?

I'm at the point that even friends I've known my entire career, have not wanted to discuss the reality of what happened the last year. This forum appears to be the place that's direct and honest about what they think. That's what I want to hear. It is good for the soul.

One mans real statistics are another mans opinion.
You can’t make us rehash the whole conversation. We did it once, only a few of us are willing to do it again, but it won’t be the same.
As a matter of fact, it has been rehashed multiple times across the many many threads in here on the subject.
Not trying to be mean to the new guy (welcome to INGO), but there’s plenty of reading to be had, both good for the soul, and bad.
The first thing you have to do is pick a side!

 

[tim87tr]

One mans real statistics are another mans opinion.
You can’t make us rehash the whole conversation. We did it once, only a few of us are willing to do it again, but it won’t be the same.
As a matter of fact, it has been rehashed multiple times across the many many threads in here on the subject.
Not trying to be mean to the new guy (welcome to INGO), but there’s plenty of reading to be had, both good for the soul, and bad.
The first thing you have to do is pick a side!

Ok thanks, I will go back and read more of this thread and do a search to find more info. That's what I want to find, as where, where, where can one find real statistics, so much misinformation everywhere.

I'm glad many were willing to discuss the numbers and topic. And yes, I do know where I stand, it was a neutrally framed question, but I strongly feel the numbers are manipulated, for nefarious reasons.

I joined a decade ago, and just got around to posting more. It's really the only forum I've been on where I have posted on anything political.

 

[chipbennett]

I did go back several pages and didn't see any mention of actual numbers. What does INGO believe to be real statistics?

I'm at the point that even friends I've known my entire career, have not wanted to discuss the reality of what happened the last year. This forum appears to be the place that's direct and honest about what they think. That's what I want to hear. It is good for the soul.

That discussion has largely taken place in the "Beer Virus" threads (current iteration "Beer Virus V", I think?).

 

[J Galt]

The first thing you have to do is pick a side!

Does anyone "need" to pick a side? Doesn't dichotomizing the positions lead to conflict and set up an "us versus them" mentality?

It seems that acknowledging elements of both sides and not insisting anyone believe what someone else does (not that you're advocating this) would have decreased the impact of things.

 

[Chewie]

Does anyone "need" to pick a side? Doesn't dichotomizing the positions lead to conflict and set up an "us versus them" mentality?

Yes! Picking a side is required! Without picking sides there is no conflict! Without conflict there is no entertainment!

The truth is the answer is in the middle but neither side is willing to concede that the other may be partially correct. Statistics and their sources are chosen to prove a point, rarely do they show the whole story or truth.

 

[tim87tr]

Does anyone "need" to pick a side? Doesn't dichotomizing the positions lead to conflict and set up an "us versus them" mentality?

It seems that acknowledging elements of both sides and not insisting anyone believe what someone else does (not that you're advocating this) would have decreased the impact of things.

I think it was us vs them from the beginning. I believe it is beneficial for people to have solid character, values and principals, and use that to have strong beliefs about the last year and anything else in a free Country. If that's not the case, you can easily lose freedoms. Last time I checked, the Bill of Rights vanished for the last year.

People get tired of being constantly gaslighted, in everyday activities like even shopping for groceries. No one needs someone their kids age telling them what to do. I hope capitalism, what's left of it, sorts it all out. As for others having opposite beliefs, sure, back to the whole free Country thing. Yes, one should respect and be aware of others boundaries.

 

[BugI02]

Ok thanks, I will go back and read more of this thread and do a search to find more info. That's what I want to find, as where, where, where can one find real statistics, so much misinformation everywhere.

A better strategy seems to be to stick with the same statistics, such as worldometers, over time and just look at the ∆'s. All available statistics seem to have some problems and potential distortions, so the thought is paying attention to change over time might mitigate systemic errors

For example, I had been following crude case fatality ratio (CFR) calculated from worldometers numbers (deaths per million/cases per million) repeatedly over time

I would also compare the US number to that of Japan (a popular example for one side of the issues because of widespread masking) and Germany (because they were used as an early example of a western country 'getting it right' because their early numbers were low)

I hadn't done so in a while, but I've just retiurned from worldometers to make the same calculations

US CFR = 1.79%

Japan CFR = 1.81%

Germany CFR = 2.43%

Even the RoK, which had a far more intrusive tracking and intervention system than a western society would ever allow, has only managed 1.36%

Both Germany and Japan were comfortably below our numbers at one point but rose up to meet or exceed them. You may draw what inferences from such data as you will, I decided early that our data was seriously distorted, likely for political reasons, and that ultimately the CFR would converge on the IFR. Arguably this has largely happened

A further inference might be that around 1.8% will be as good as it gets for a first world western civilization when everything shakes out - which would make covid similar to a bad influenza but somewhat deadlier

 

[BugI02]

The truth is the answer is in the middle but neither side is willing to concede that the other may be partially correct. Statistics and their sources are chosen to prove a point, rarely do they show the whole story or truth.

But you must admit that the truth about covid lies 'in the middle' between 'it's the sniffles' and 'OMG it will kill us all' is quite unsatisfying, although technically correct

 

[jamil]

Does anyone "need" to pick a side? Doesn't dichotomizing the positions lead to conflict and set up an "us versus them" mentality?

It seems that acknowledging elements of both sides and not insisting anyone believe what someone else does (not that you're advocating this) would have decreased the impact of things.

Oh, come on. INGO is all about sides.

 

[jamil]

But you must admit that the truth about covid lies 'in the middle' between 'it's the sniffles' and 'OMG it will kill us all' is quite unsatisfying, although technically correct

Yes. Said another way, the truth lies between and

 

[Ingomike]

Oh, come on. INGO is all about sides.

Over in the grilling thread there is plenty of entrée postings, it is rarely about sides...

 

[jamil]

Over in the grilling thread there is plenty of entrée postings, it is rarely about sides...

Wait. INGO has a grilling thread?

 

[rhamersley]

Over in the grilling thread there is plenty of entrée postings, it is rarely about sides...

That reminds me, wonder if Sullivan Hardware is going to do Slawfest again this year…

 

[tim87tr]

@BugI02 thanks for the assessment, seems like a good approach to circumvent distorted or missing data necessary for real numbers. Would really like to know the "real" total 2020 deaths, for comparison to prior years, but its not easy.

Just ran across this, and based on 2019 total of 2.855M and adding the actual monthly CDC numbers they listed for 2020 of 3.372M, it's 517,000 more deaths. The link below states 2.913M for 2020 at years end, then the CDC chart has larger Nov and Dec numbers adding up to the 3.372.

TOTAL US DEATHS 2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019 & 2020

Updated: 31 of December 2020 ... CDC DATA : Total U.S. DEATHS ( ALL CAUSES ) : 2014: 2,626,418 2015: 2,712,630 : Increase - 86,212 - 3.28% 2016 : 2,744,248 : Increase - 31,618 - 1.16% 2017 : 2,813,503 : Increase - 69,255 - 2.52% 2018 : 2,839,206 : Increase - 25,703 - 1% 2019: 2,855,000 ...

www.myessentialnews.com

Yes as stated, a bad flu year and 517,000 more deaths worst case scenario, or could be less. There's a whole lot that's happened in the last year as a result of this number, or likely a lower number. Something to think about.

 

[MCgrease08]

 

[Hatin Since 87]

Oh, come on. INGO is all about sides.

Sides, slides, and sweet cherry pies. I think everyone here is a sucker for all 3.

 

[JettaKnight]

@BugI02 thanks for the assessment, seems like a good approach to circumvent distorted or missing data necessary for real numbers. Would really like to know the "real" total 2020 deaths, for comparison to prior years, but its not easy.

Just ran across this, and based on 2019 total of 2.855M and adding the actual monthly CDC numbers they listed for 2020 of 3.372M, it's 517,000 more deaths. The link below states 2.913M for 2020 at years end, then the CDC chart has larger Nov and Dec numbers adding up to the 3.372.

TOTAL US DEATHS 2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019 & 2020

Updated: 31 of December 2020 ... CDC DATA : Total U.S. DEATHS ( ALL CAUSES ) : 2014: 2,626,418 2015: 2,712,630 : Increase - 86,212 - 3.28% 2016 : 2,744,248 : Increase - 31,618 - 1.16% 2017 : 2,813,503 : Increase - 69,255 - 2.52% 2018 : 2,839,206 : Increase - 25,703 - 1% 2019: 2,855,000 ...

www.myessentialnews.com

Yes as stated, a bad flu year and 517,000 more deaths worst case scenario, or could be less. There's a whole lot that's happened in the last year as a result of this number, or likely a lower number. Something to think about.

"Myessentialnews.com"

Half of it's in Spanish, the other half is just lifted content or biased ramblings.

 

[tim87tr]

"Myessentialnews.com"

Half of it's in Spanish, the other half is just lifted content or biased ramblings.

There are links to the CDC data in the web page, and I added up their 2020 monthly death counts. What numbers did you come up with that are different?

I think it is important to look at the actual numbers, there is a foundational truth if one knows how many deaths are related to what has been called a pandemic. There was and still is a lot of hysteria related to a 2020 flu virus that occurs each year. Even at a half million deaths, it's a 0.1x percent increase in the total US death rate. Does that fit the definition of a pandemic?

 

[IndyDave1776]

There are links to the CDC data in the web page, and I added up their 2020 monthly death counts. What numbers did you come up with that are different?

I think it is important to look at the actual numbers, there is a foundational truth if one knows how many deaths are related to what has been called a pandemic. There was and still is a lot of hysteria related to a 2020 flu virus that occurs each year. Even at a half million deaths, it's a 0.1x percent increase in the total US death rate. Does that fit the definition of a pandemic?

Another member found the information where the CDC quietly came clean and admitted that by its account, only about 6%of COVID deaths were actually COVID deaths, as opposed to people who already had acute conditions like terminal cancer, heart attack, automobile accidents, gunshot, or falling off buildings who were claimed as COVID deaths.

Pretty damn small plague. You do, however, have to account forvghd fact that the common cold is a pandemic if most people catch it even if the damage is only an inconvenience while sick.