Stock market.... What are you doing?

[DoggyDaddy]

.......Blackrock,UBS,Fidelity,State Street,Morgan,Stanley,Allianz,Capitol Group...all yell "catch"....
and toss the flaming ball to Goldman Sachs.

or in other terms. They said hold my beer and watch this.

I'm not sure I know what this means, but I just got up from my nap and saw that the DOW had gone below 30K while I was sleeping! And gold and silver are up.

 

[indyjohn]

Dying a slow and painful death.

 

[smokingman]

I'm not sure I know what this means, but I just got up from my nap and saw that the DOW had gone below 30K while I was sleeping! And gold and silver are up.

I was watching which were moving down the most. At the time of my post all but Goldman had stabilized around 3% down.

Loads of margin calls going out across all markets,not just crypo. Some leveraged shorts were set of fire yesterday(most every hedge fund on earth is and has been short for months) a few will not recover.

In the shadow derivatives markets I am certain some of those quadrillion+ positions have had losses. Where and when will they show up?

On a higher note,the S&P PE ratio is down to around 16(from 22 last month,and if memory serves 34 last December). I still think it will fall to around 10-12PE if things stabilize or 4-6 if they do not(during high inflation in the 1980 US markets average PE was 6). Hoping for the 10-12 with inflation down to 5% by November...but it is really not likely.

Dollar index is down again today around 1.5%

Japan keeps doing more buying of their own treasuries,now over 9 trillion in US dollar terms,and wants to keep their 10 year at .25%. It is insanity. Their currency losing purchasing power is doing serious damage considering how much in energy and materials they have to import. Official Inflation has not shown up yet as it is running 2.9%,but I am sure everyone understands government decided/created inflation numbers. It can not last as " The yen-based imported goods prices surged 43.3 per cent in May from a year earlier(up more than 9%m/m)"

Record surge in Japan's wholesale import costs rekindles weak yen concerns

TOKYO :Japan's wholesale inflation moderated in May but yen-based import prices surged at a record annual pace, data showed, underlining that the currency's slump was becoming a major strain for the economy heavily reliant on commodity imports.Friday's data casts doubt on the central bank's...

www.channelnewsasia.com

Strange to say it,but if I get back into the markets it will likely be in India's market. They are doing the opposite of the EU and USA,and investing in energy generation and manufacturing. More available energy,more cheaply=growth.

 

[Sigblaster]

Full disclosure: I am not currently in the stock market at all. I am 100% in bonds right now. I am too close to retirement to risk security for the chance of a higher level of profit. I've made my profit, at least in electrons.

Having said that, I think it's terrible what the government has done to this economy and the stock market. I feel great sympathy for those who are seeing a decline in their investments and who didn't vote for the current administration. For those that did vote for it, f'em, they got what they voted for. I hope they lose their butts.

Please, consider your situation and age, and make smart decisions about your retirement investments. I saved my Mom from a foolish investment advisor. I made a risk versus reward decision for myself at an appropriate time, and I only keep working right now because I want to, not because I have to.

I can't give you stock advice. I don't play that game anymore. Again, please give thoughtful consideration to when it's time for you to move partially away from that game, or stop playing it too.

Good luck to you all. I think it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

 

[CHCRandy]

Operation Generational Waterfall engaged. When SPY gets to 349.55 I will reassess. If that 200 DMA does not hold at 349.55 on weekly chart........we will go to 280-300 I think. I see nothing to make this market turn around.......not a thing, other than maybe if Russia-Ukraine stop fighting.

I lost $16K last week on NRZ while I was on vacation and couldnt trade.......I am done holding any stocks. Nothing but day scalps for me until something positive starts to happen. The best we can hope for is landslide wins in 2022 elections. I don't have much faith right now.

Brokers will destroy people this go around. They are still telling people to just hold and add........it will rebound. This selloff is not like Covid........this will not be a V recovery and it will not be a waterfall down and right back up. We will waterfall down and slowly climb back. We will give up 10 years of gains in a week and take us years to recoup it.

But if you have not sold by now..........you are already down so much you might as well ride it out or wait for fake rally, bull trap and sell em off.

Sorry to be so negative........and I hope like hell I am wrong.

 

[NyleRN]

Operation Generational Waterfall engaged. When SPY gets to 349.55 I will reassess. If that 200 DMA does not hold at 349.55 on weekly chart........we will go to 280-300 I think. I see nothing to make this market turn around.......not a thing, other than maybe if Russia-Ukraine stop fighting.

I lost $16K last week on NRZ while I was on vacation and couldnt trade.......I am done holding any stocks. Nothing but day scalps for me until something positive starts to happen. The best we can hope for is landslide wins in 2022 elections. I don't have much faith right now.

Brokers will destroy people this go around. They are still telling people to just hold and add........it will rebound. This selloff is not like Covid........this will not be a V recovery and it will not be a waterfall down and right back up. We will waterfall down and slowly climb back. We will give up 10 years of gains in a week and take us years to recoup it.

But if you have not sold by now..........you are already down so much you might as well ride it out or wait for fake rally, bull trap and sell em off.

Sorry to be so negative........and I hope like hell I am wrong.

Depends on your age. For those in their 20s and 30s this is a gift as long as the end isn't near

 

[CHCRandy]

Playing my normal buy-n-hold game looking for solid dividends. I just picked up a little bit more Ford today. Once the supply chains unjam and the EV game picks up speed I think the dividend will increase. I think, long term, Ford is a very solid performer.

I've been picking up Enbridge as well, midstream gas pipeline provider that's buying and building more infrastructure from extraction to refiners. Healthy dividend, reasonable growth potential, strong long term outlook.

Maxed out my IRA for the year last month, so just doing non-tax deferred brokerage buys now.

Yeah, I like Ford. I am thinking about starting to get into it. Just not sure if I am buying shares and gonna sell covered calls, or selling puts and trying to back into the shares. $10.65-10.84 is a solid support. But if SPY loses another 20%, we may get shares in single digits again. I am not sold on EV though......still a long ways to go before they persuade me. Maybe I am just too dang old to like change.......

 

[CHCRandy]

Depends on your age. For those in their 20s and 30s this is a gift as long as the end isn't near

Yep, that's why we call it a generational waterfall. The older generation has made theirs......now they will pass it to the next generation to make theirs. The old guys will take cover and the young guns will come in fearless.......and your next generation of billionaires will be made. You just have to be able to live long enough to reap the reward.

 

[Route 45]

Operation Generational Waterfall engaged. When SPY gets to 349.55 I will reassess. If that 200 DMA does not hold at 349.55 on weekly chart........we will go to 280-300 I think. I see nothing to make this market turn around.......not a thing, other than maybe if Russia-Ukraine stop fighting.

I lost $16K last week on NRZ while I was on vacation and couldnt trade.......I am done holding any stocks. Nothing but day scalps for me until something positive starts to happen. The best we can hope for is landslide wins in 2022 elections. I don't have much faith right now.

Brokers will destroy people this go around. They are still telling people to just hold and add........it will rebound. This selloff is not like Covid........this will not be a V recovery and it will not be a waterfall down and right back up. We will waterfall down and slowly climb back. We will give up 10 years of gains in a week and take us years to recoup it.

But if you have not sold by now..........you are already down so much you might as well ride it out or wait for fake rally, bull trap and sell em off.

Sorry to be so negative........and I hope like hell I am wrong.

Gamblers Anonymous

www.gamblersanonymous.org

 

[smokingman]

Bank of Japan Spends A Record $81 Billion To Avert Collapse, But $10 Trillion JGB Market Is Now Completely Broken | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[ancjr]

I saw the dip, but didn't know enough about it to participate...

 

[CHCRandy]

What a day!!

 

[ancjr]

The uranium miner options I bought a few days ago almost broke even today!

 

[ancjr]

 

[Route 45]

View attachment 211502

This ignores the fact that the US stock market price has nothing to do with the actual value of a company.

Former hedge fund scumbag Jim Cramer accidently told the truth one time in an old video.

 

[ancjr]

This ignores the fact that the US stock market price has nothing to do with the actual value of a company.

Former hedge fund scumbag Jim Cramer accidently told the truth one time in an old video.

Cocaine Cramer.

 

[smokingman]

View attachment 211502

Why did the asset price fall by half? This is an idiotic view honestly. It means you could have lost half your investment,but somehow you should still buy that asset even at half price because you liked it at double the price. Sigh.

It does not matter how much I liked an asset,if it falls by half the only thing I am looking at is how could I have been so wrong when it was double that price. I would examine it even more closely ,not jump in and go Ohhh ohhh it is on sale buy buy buy!

 

[ancjr]

Why did the asset price fall by half? This is an idiotic view honestly. It means you could have lost half your investment,but somehow you should still buy that asset even at half price because you liked it at double the price. Sigh.

It does not matter how much I liked an asset,if it falls by half the only thing I am looking at is how could I have been so wrong when it was double that price. I would examine it even more closely ,not jump in and go Ohhh ohhh it is on sale buy buy buy!

First of all, I won't even claim that I think there will be a recovery to this market. But, if there is, the people that have bought in at the bottom won't get their feelings too hurt over what those that sold at the top or halfway down thought of it.

 

[smokingman]

First of all, I won't even claim that I think there will be a recovery to this market. But, if there is, the people that have bought in at the bottom won't get their feelings too hurt over what those that sold at the top or halfway down thought of it.

I was short(since 2021)when I sold. I did well.
When PE ratios hit something closer to the average I will likely jump back in.
If the FED starts printing and ends QT,I will likely jump back in.
The dollar hit an all time record on 7/14/2022 vs the YEN and Euro before falling back down a bit(I think it will be a very shallow and short fall and keep breaking records as Japan keeps printing,and the EU can not raise rates like they had planned).
That alone is going to kill exports,so I will watch that as well. A global company can not make much if no one can afford their product because the currency it is priced in has doubled how much the product cost locally. Apple is really going to feel the pain,along with any other company that depends on sales in YEN or Euro's.

 

[ancjr]

I was short(since 2021)when I sold. I did well.
When PE ratios hit something closer to the average I will likely jump back in.
If the FED starts printing and ends QT,I will likely jump back in.
The dollar hit an all time record on 7/14/2022 vs the YEN and Euro before falling back down a bit(I think it will be a very shallow and short fall and keep breaking records as Japan keeps printing,and the EU can not raise rates like they had planned).
That alone is going to kill exports,so I will watch that as well. A global company can not make much if no one can afford their product because the currency it is priced in has doubled how much the product cost locally. Apple is really going to feel the pain,along with any other company that depends on sales in YEN or Euro's.

I've done ok with SQQQ, when I could time it correctly.

You make an excellent point about the dollar value. I think a lot of people are expecting something sooner than it could possibly happen with the current dollar valuation.

Otherwise, I don't do a lot of investing in large cap domestic equities.

Mr Rule's quote, as I would assume from his expertise, is also not in reference to large cap domestic equities.