Stock market.... What are you doing?

The #1 community for Gun Owners in Indiana

Member Benefits:

  • Fewer Ads!
  • Discuss all aspects of firearm ownership
  • Discuss anti-gun legislation
  • Buy, sell, and trade in the classified section
  • Chat with Local gun shops, ranges, trainers & other businesses
  • Discover free outdoor shooting areas
  • View up to date on firearm-related events
  • Share photos & video with other members
  • ...and so much more!
  • smokingman

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    2   0   0
    Nov 11, 2008
    9,273
    149
    Indiana
    I've done ok with SQQQ, when I could time it correctly.

    You make an excellent point about the dollar value. I think a lot of people are expecting something sooner than it could possibly happen with the current dollar valuation.

    Otherwise, I don't do a lot of investing in large cap domestic equities.

    Mr Rule's quote, as I would assume from his expertise, is also not in reference to large cap domestic equities.
    The food we export(or any commodity),is still priced in currency. If the EU think inflation in food is bad now,wait until they see what it costs when the dollar is at 120.
    I think that happens in weeks if Russia keeps the gas off,or within 3 months if they do not.
    Unless the fed stops QT and starts a round of printing,then all bets are off in a race to the bottom.
     

    CHCRandy

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    5   0   0
    Feb 16, 2013
    3,699
    113
    Hendricks County
    I have been on a roll. I don't invest in nothing...........but I will sit here and trade SPY and QQQ options all day. I got a system.....and I hate to jinx myself yet, but I think I finally have this game figured out. Last few weeks I at no point had over 1% of my portfolio "risked" and am getting 100% a day in profit.

    Last week I had SPY calls I bought on Thursday at close, 380 calls.......paid $2.20 each, held them overnight and sold Friday morning at 9:35 for $5.15 each, they went up to $7 later. 3 contracts cost $660, sold them for $1500+12 hours later. I dont usually overnight options.......I like to close them out every day, but I had a good day Thursday and decided to "gamble" on an overnight trade.

    Most days I just buy and scalp quickly, making 20-30 cents each, take my $200-300 profit and move on. Although one day last week I did this 5-6 times in 1 day, and only made 10-20 cents each trade.

    If someone had taught me option trading when I was younger.........life would sure have been different. I don't care if I ever own a stock again.
     

    CHCRandy

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    5   0   0
    Feb 16, 2013
    3,699
    113
    Hendricks County
    I forgot to mention.......I think market runs hard next month or so. I imagine SPY will see 410+ in July/August.......but I am telling you guys, don't get complacent. This market is going to tank hard, probably before Christmas.......and it will be life changing bad to older folks. We are talking losing 35% of what you have made in your lifetime.....and it WILL NOT be a V recovery.......as many brokers will lead you to believe. It will take a long time to get it back, years, not months. This will be a generational waterfall I think.

    I hope I am wrong.......

    There is no way I would be "investing" in anything but MRE's and ammo, I dont even want Gold here. Oil will tank. Silver may be ok..... housing will be destroyed. Already have home builders cutting prices........that means all these people who bought in last 2 years will soon be upside down again...........just like 2007/2008, same destination, we just took a different route.

    Again........hope I am wrong about this.
     

    ancjr

    1 Kings 18:17-18 KJV
    Rating - 100%
    1   0   0
    Aug 20, 2021
    14,066
    113
    Washington County
    I have been on a roll. I don't invest in nothing...........but I will sit here and trade SPY and QQQ options all day. I got a system.....and I hate to jinx myself yet, but I think I finally have this game figured out. Last few weeks I at no point had over 1% of my portfolio "risked" and am getting 100% a day in profit.

    Last week I had SPY calls I bought on Thursday at close, 380 calls.......paid $2.20 each, held them overnight and sold Friday morning at 9:35 for $5.15 each, they went up to $7 later. 3 contracts cost $660, sold them for $1500+12 hours later. I dont usually overnight options.......I like to close them out every day, but I had a good day Thursday and decided to "gamble" on an overnight trade.

    Most days I just buy and scalp quickly, making 20-30 cents each, take my $200-300 profit and move on. Although one day last week I did this 5-6 times in 1 day, and only made 10-20 cents each trade.

    If someone had taught me option trading when I was younger.........life would sure have been different. I don't care if I ever own a stock again.

    Works great if you can keep earnings high enough to offset tax liability advantage over a buy & hold strategy.
     

    CHCRandy

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    5   0   0
    Feb 16, 2013
    3,699
    113
    Hendricks County
    Works great if you can keep earnings high enough to offset tax liability advantage over a buy & hold strategy.
    My earnings are tax free.....the down side I can't get the money yet, so I have to keep working just to pay the bills and hope I live another 5-6 years. I trade everything in Roth accounts.

    I have been thinking about switching enough over to a normal account and start making my living trading.......but I really don't want to give the government anything I don't have to, and I hate splitting my profit with them! Would really be nice if I could short stocks(which you cant short in Roth) other than puts.....I can go short in puts, which helps in this market. I can also "write" options for premium collections in Roth. Just can't sell short.....which really isn't what I am good at anyway. I dont even like when I have to buy puts, lol. Seems almost Un-American.
     

    smokingman

    Grandmaster
    Rating - 100%
    2   0   0
    Nov 11, 2008
    9,273
    149
    Indiana
    The dollar hit an all time record on 7/14/2022 vs the YEN and Euro before falling back down a bit(I think it will be a very shallow and short fall and keep breaking records as Japan keeps printing,and the EU can not raise rates like they had planned).
    That alone is going to kill exports,so I will watch that as well. A global company can not make much if no one can afford their product because the currency it is priced in has doubled how much the product cost locally. Apple is really going to feel the pain,along with any other company that depends on sales in YEN or Euro's.
    Hint,it is not just because they are slowing hiring and not replacing people that are let go or leave(per the article).
    Those are reactions to the reality the business faces.
    The Euro has lost 20% of value vs the US dollar in the last 7 months. That in effect means a a 20%+ in the increase in price for something like an iphone in Europe. JPY is even worse.

    Apple will be far from the only casualty. US exports are going to go down in a very large way.
    Expect the trade deficit to hit new highs,only slightly off set by our exporting of oil at higher prices.

    Everything depends on the FED. Our currency value,inflation,markets,and employment. I think the FED keeps hiking rates and follows the QT path. I could easily be wrong though,last time they did QT the market freaked and they resumed QE. It is different this time though. Much different,we did not have over 9% inflation last time.
     

    CHCRandy

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    5   0   0
    Feb 16, 2013
    3,699
    113
    Hendricks County
    I am so angry at myself....I have been working this week so no time to trade. I bought 20 X Aug. 12 $415 calls @ .86 on Tuesday for $1700 total cost. I sold them at close Tuesday because I was afraid of the CPI on Wednesday....I sold for $1 and a few cents, like $1.03, like $2060. They expired today at $12.50 each, got scared out of $25K!!!!!!

    I love scalping, but I swear I have given away 50K+ this month by selling for scalp price and letting huge money get away. I had 405 calls last week......and did the same thing. I will try to hold next week.......but with my luck market will dump.

    Not sure how to fix that......I know I am sick of letting that big money get away. I will do better next week, I hope, lol.

    I have no idea what to expect from this market now.....it may keep running into September now, we make a new yearly high. What you guys thinking? I know one thing, when it gets bloated nice and fat......I am gonna start selling calls to open.
     

    ancjr

    1 Kings 18:17-18 KJV
    Rating - 100%
    1   0   0
    Aug 20, 2021
    14,066
    113
    Washington County
    I am so angry at myself....I have been working this week so no time to trade. I bought 20 X Aug. 12 $415 calls @ .86 on Tuesday for $1700 total cost. I sold them at close Tuesday because I was afraid of the CPI on Wednesday....I sold for $1 and a few cents, like $1.03, like $2060. They expired today at $12.50 each, got scared out of $25K!!!!!!

    I love scalping, but I swear I have given away 50K+ this month by selling for scalp price and letting huge money get away. I had 405 calls last week......and did the same thing. I will try to hold next week.......but with my luck market will dump.

    Not sure how to fix that......I know I am sick of letting that big money get away. I will do better next week, I hope, lol.

    I have no idea what to expect from this market now.....it may keep running into September now, we make a new yearly high. What you guys thinking? I know one thing, when it gets bloated nice and fat......I am gonna start selling calls to open.

    I never made more than a couple bucks with buying or selling calls. I'm great at buying something at the peak and watching it go to 0, so it's no wonder how much money I've made selling puts.

    If this sqzmom chart tool I have is any good, it looks like 95% of the stocks on my watchlist are at or near a peak... next week should be level to slightly red.
     

    Nugget

    Milsurp Enjoyer
    Rating - 100%
    8   0   0
    Jul 30, 2022
    614
    93
    Morgan County
    I have no idea what to expect from this market now.....it may keep running into September now, we make a new yearly high. What you guys thinking? I know one thing, when it gets bloated nice and fat......I am gonna start selling calls to open.

    Options trading seems like a lot of work to make a little money, with a small chance of making a lot of money and a decent chance of getting completely cleaned out. Your "system" will probably work, right up until it doesn't. Good luck, and be careful out there. Couldn't help but think of this old adage...

    1660393106625.png

    To answer your question, my best guess for the coming week/s is that the market will probably either go up, go down, or trade flat, same as it always has. (t. long-term buy-n-holder since 1999)
     
    Last edited:
    Top Bottom