Stock Market is ROCKING

[BugI02]

Berkshire Cash Pile Hits All-Time High $157 Billion, As Buffett Sells A Record $38BN In Stock In Past Year | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

From 11/4
Berkshire was a net seller of stock for the fourth quarter, liquidating another $5.3 billion in shares and bringing the total sales over the past 12 months to a record $38.3 billion.

Berkshire-Hathaway up 13.76% ytd

S&P up 13.51% ytd

SQQQ down -65.15% ytd

 

[smokingman]

Berkshire-Hathaway up 13.76% ytd

S&P up 13.51% ytd

SQQQ down -65.15% ytd

Buffett has also leaned heavily on share repurchases amid the dearth of appealing alternatives, saying the measures benefit shareholders.

Separately, the conglomerate also reported operating earnings of $10.76 billion, a jump on the prior year, as it benefited from the impact of elevated interest rates on the cash pile and gains at its insurance businesses. However, including investment and derivatives losses, Berkshire posted a loss for the quarter of almost $12.8 billion, well above last year's $2.8 billion loss, which largely came from a decline in its big Apple stake.

Nearly 2 years of losses,but yes the stock price can go up. As he said himself "share repurchases benefit shareholders",and if you have the cash why not paper over losses? Seems everyone is doing quite a bit of that these days(the blackout window ended last Monday for 90% of the market,and nearly 2/3rds of the money that caused the spike up was from share buybacks with Apple leading with a few billion,they did 77.5 billion in buybacks last quarter just FYI).
Stocks can go up even if they are losing money. So can markets. It does not mean it will continue to forever though.

SQQQ is good to have only on days the market is down,it also pays a nice dividend. It is a leveraged wager the market is going to go down. It is as simple as that. I have purchased and sold it no less than 9 times since September. I made money each time. It could turn out different for me next week,but I do not think it will. Being short for me is long term,holding something short is not.

 

[BugI02]

Buffett has also leaned heavily on share repurchases amid the dearth of appealing alternatives, saying the measures benefit shareholders.

Separately, the conglomerate also reported operating earnings of $10.76 billion, a jump on the prior year, as it benefited from the impact of elevated interest rates on the cash pile and gains at its insurance businesses. However, including investment and derivatives losses, Berkshire posted a loss for the quarter of almost $12.8 billion, well above last year's $2.8 billion loss, which largely came from a decline in its big Apple stake.

Nearly 2 years of losses,but yes the stock price can go up. As he said himself "share repurchases benefit shareholders",and if you have the cash why not paper over losses? Seems everyone is doing quite a bit of that these days(the blackout window ended last Monday for 90% of the market,and nearly 2/3rds of the money that caused the spike up was from share buybacks with Apple leading with a few billion,they did 77.5 billion in buybacks last quarter just FYI).
Stocks can go up even if they are losing money. So can markets. It does not mean it will continue to forever though.

SQQQ is good to have only on days the market is down,it also pays a nice dividend. It is a leveraged wager the market is going to go down. It is as simple as that. I have purchased and sold it no less than 9 times since September. I made money each time. It could turn out different for me next week,but I do not think it will. Being short for me is long term,holding something short is not.

Oh, I understand what a short position is and I understand how SQQQ works. My point is both require correct market timing in order to be successful, and virtually all the people I know who play in that casino only like to tell you about their successes and only reluctantly discuss losses

On the money you are betting at the casino, are you up 13.5% ytd? If you held mutuals or ETFs or securities, could your investment lose 1/3 in any but the most extreme (2008-09) circumstances? How about SQQQ? It did so in two weeks between 19 Jan and 2 Feb of this year

I see instruments like this as a sucker trap, barely a cut above BTC

 

[ancjr]

...

I see instruments like this as a sucker trap, barely a cut above BTC

Around 2008 I was given several Pentium II machines from an office facility that I cleaned and reconfigured into a Linux server farm. I experimented with running BOINC projects on the machines until I later heard about Bitcoin from some programmer acquaintances, one of which was "The Bitcoin Pizza Guy" himself ... Over the following months I mined approximately 6,500 bitcoins at an estimated electrical cost of ~$0.06/ea. I later sold them in 2011 for ~$0.11/ea.

 

[Nugget]

Over the following months I mined approximately 6,500 bitcoins at an estimated electrical cost of ~$0.06/ea. I later sold them in 2011 for ~$0.11/ea.

At the current price of $35k per, you'd be looking at a quarter billion dollars. At its peak, that would've been closer to $400mil. The fact you haven't killed yourself yet leads me to believe you're either lying, or very strong-willed. Not sure I'd be able to get out of bed each day.

 

[ancjr]

At the current price of $35k per, you'd be looking at a quarter billion dollars. At its peak, that would've been closer to $400mil. The fact you haven't killed yourself yet leads me to believe you're either lying, or very strong-willed. Not sure I'd be able to get out of bed each day.

We would trade whole bitcoins just to test the software out of curiosity.

 

[nra4ever]

Moody’s

https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1723093232295231929?s=61&t=EnpFilmXnhzuuS35bYcgWQ

Bitcoin just passed Tesla and is about to leave Berkshire Hathaway in the dust. https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Moody’s

https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1723093232295231929?s=61&t=EnpFilmXnhzuuS35bYcgWQ

Bitcoin just passed Tesla and is about to leave Berkshire Hathaway in the dust. https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

Someone that spells "sells" as "sell's" really doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

 

[nra4ever]

I will agree he might not be the best spokesman but the message is clear. It might just be all tulip bulbs. But when some of the biggest hedge funds in the world are jumping in with the ETF I don’t mind risking a few dollars to make some gains and get out.

 

[Ingomike]

You Don’t Own What You Think You Own

redstate.com

 

[Lpherr]

You Don’t Own What You Think You Own

redstate.com

More legalized thievery.
Anything digital, can just vanish.

 

[smokingman]

 

[Tryin']

Just watched that. Good video. Mind blowing amounts of money contained in the derivatives market.

 

[smokingman]

Just watched that. Good video. Mind blowing amounts of money contained in the derivatives market.

Currently that market is the only thing holding up the broader market. As Prof. Andrew Lo (MIT) points out in the video everything is great and it increases liquidity and stability in normal times(monetary expansion), the problem happens when derivatives turn en mass to short, and you get huge market crashes(2008 was his example,also one of the greatest down turns in M2 as derivatives defaulted on MBS). The default of a derivative is not a topic they touched on, but you can end up owing huge sums in a bad derivatives bet and given there is 50x leverage or more in that market defaults can and do happen.

The derivatives market accounts for nearly 20% of all M2(money in circulation). With the fed tightening(if they continue to) that will compress M2 and eventually force that down turn(it has not yet, as the fed itself actually expanded its balance sheet increasing M2 last quarter). The only way mathematically for the derivatives market to not crash the market is to expand m2, which of course leads to inflation(even if rates stay high).

The FED is trying to keep up the expansion of M2 to support the market while keeping rates higher to lessen inflation. The US treasury is playing a part as well. A government that always borrows more than it takes in expands M2 as well, but also increases inflation.

The pot is boiling(M2 is the water) the Treasury is the pot, the fed the stove. The lid is interest rates. How much pressure can the lid(interest rates) take if you keep adding water and boiling it. The lid can contain inflation for awhile, but it is under great pressure currently and could fail. Barring a failure of the lid, at some point the lid is pointless as you have to much water, and it spills over(inflation) as the lid simply can not stay on the pot.

If M2 starts to decline again, the derivatives market will feel it first. That will instantly transfer to markets, as it did in 2008(only now we have 8x the options and more than 100x the total derivatives). The last time in 2008 the DOW lost 777 points, The S&P 500 also suffered its biggest one-day loss since the 1987 crash, dropping 8.8%, and the Nasdaq fell 9.1%, its biggest single-day point loss in eight years. Those are nothing compared to what could happen with the size of the derivatives market now.

I am short again, but more hedged just in case the fed continues to increase M2. The government debt deal is another reason. If it actually causes a shutdown(I think they need to),being short will be great, but again hedged because it is not likely. As they say, do not bet against the FED...then again it feels almost like they want a crash.

*in no way market or investing advise

*side note up until 1986 every dollar of government spending added 98 cents to US GDP. By 2000 it added 80 cents to gdp. It now takes 2.5 dollars to add one dollar to gdp. I would wager the fed hikes rates at least once in 2024.

US GDP "Grew" $334 Billion In Q4.... That Growth Cost $834 Billion In Debt | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[amboy49]

I rolled my retirement into cash before Puties war

Then you've missed out on huge gains in the DOW over the past few months !

 

[smokingman]

No imminent chance of a down turn.
QE 3 is starting. A reverse of operation twist, this time the FED is selling near worthless MBS(some on their books since 2009) at huge losses, and buying ding ding ding....billions in US Treasury notes(less the last few disaster auctions continue to erode public faith in the US gov to pay them back). Yellen is pleased, as up coming Treasury auctions exceed any previous ones in all of history. Mysteriously the Treasury site has ZERO future auctions on it for the first time...well ever.

Upcoming Auctions — TreasuryDirect

www.treasurydirect.gov

'Everything' Rallies On First Day Of March After Fed Hints At Next 'QE' | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Everything is unicorns and puppies. To bad that also appears to be the only meat available. Guess we will see how this goes. One thing you can bet on though, inflation.

 

[Tombs]

Just watched that. Good video. Mind blowing amounts of money contained in the derivatives market.

There's a mind blowing money in exploiting inflation, too.

If you know inflation is going to continue to rise, take out massive debt on hard assets. Let the inflation devalue the debt and flip it for a profit.

That's what the big players are always doing, usually in a more complicated manner but the principle is the same.

 

[nra4ever]

The hardest asset ever is now bitcoin.

https://www.ccn.com/news/jack-mallers-bitcoin-the-hardest-money-ever-btc-scarcity-beats-gold/#:~:text=2%20min%20read-,Jack%20Mallers%20Calls%20Bitcoin%20the%20%E2%80%9CHardest%20Money%20Ever%2C%E2%80%9D,Says%20BTC%20Scarcity%20Beats%20Gold&text=Jack%20Mallers%20founded%20the%20Bitcoin,the%20%E2%80%9Chardest%20money%20ever.%E2%80%9D

Bitcoin is going to over take the market cap of silver this month.

Assets ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com

Ranking the world's top assets by market cap, including precious metals, public companies, cryptocurrencies, ETFs

companiesmarketcap.com

 

[indyblue]

I don’t understand why the stock market keeps rising so much with this terrible economy.

I’m not complaining though, because my 401 is making a killing right now, but whenever there’s an upside, there’s usually a downside as well.

 

[Pepi]

I'm 70 and just don't worry about investing anymore. CDs is all I do