Stock Market is ROCKING

[smokingman]

6:30 am 10/4
Nasdaq 100 still bouncing around trying to stay above 14700. 14,705 currently(was down 14,589 when the the EU started opening for trade).

Back to bonds. It is ugly. Loads of articles about how high rates are going to destroy everything.
Some irony as well. China is down to almost below 80 billion in US treasuries...but they wrote this after they sold 40 billion(at a loss) so far this year.

CHART OF THE DAY: China may be the source of surging US bond yields as Beijing dumps Treasurys

"Maybe China is behind the rise in US long rates," said Apollo's chief economist, noting that Chinese exports to the US are lower.

www.businessinsider.in

Business insider is a strong defender of Biden's "economy"and more left than bloomberg(i know right!) who instead of blaming the 40 Billion china sold over the last 10 months mentions the gorilla in the room. The USA has sold almost 22 Billion in new bonds in the last month,and has another 85 billion or so to sell before the end of 2023. If you think bonds are bad now....well you have not seen anything yet,not even close...which is why JPM issued guidance about rates hitting 8% before year end(and mentioned they were one of the few banks who could handle it...video from yesterday).

US Plans $103 Billion Debt Sale, as Issuance to Keep Rising

The US Treasury boosted the size of its quarterly bond sales for the first time in 2 1/2 years to help finance a surge in budget deficits so alarming it prompted Fitch Ratings to cut the government’s AAA credit rating a day earlier.

www.bloomberg.com

Just to recap yesterday.

Dow plunges 430 points as yields surge to levels not seen since 2007 and slam US stocks

Weekly job openings surged to more than 9 million, ahead of economist estimates, showing that the labor market is still resilient.

www.businessinsider.in

 

[ancjr]

Maybe... they're using the rates as a shakedown?

 

[smokingman]

Maybe... they're using the rates as a shakedown?

Fairly certain it is institutional selling bad bets to muppets at this point.
Maybe a rally for a day or two,but I see nothing that supports it anywhere(other than those like GS to their own investors"here hold this a minute...what do you mean it was a bomb and you almost died? We thought it was a solid sphere of Iron with the potential to expand rapidly,that is why we lit the fuse before we handed it to you. Your lucky we are watching out for you. If it had been a water balloon,you would have gotten wet!"

PE is still at insane levels. Does anyone really believe the Nasdaq gained 1/4 of its total value of all time in 2023? It is dot com bubble levels plus loads of other problems(insane debt levels,some even do buy backs now with borrowed money to elevate shares,especially before bonuses are calculated).

I think everyone at the top of the heap understands the everything bubble needs to pop and wipe out some debt,they just want to control how the air is let out and who is left holding the pieces...and who just watches the breeze blow away their assets. I do not think it will be nearly as controllable as they hope.

You will hear about some large companies allowing or forcing parts of themselves away from the company...after they load some small non important part of the company with as much debt as they can(GM did this more than a decade ago).
Latest example of a debt cow off to the slaughter house. https://www.wsj.com/tech/intel-to-spin-off-programmable-solutions-group-22f3e247

 

[smokingman]

Fairly certain it is institutional selling bad bets to muppets at this point.
Maybe a rally for a day or two,but I see nothing that supports it anywhere(other than those like GS to their own investors"here hold this a minute...what do you mean it was a bomb and you almost died? We thought it was a solid sphere of Iron with the potential to expand rapidly,that is why we lit the fuse before we handed it to you. Your lucky we are watching out for you. If it had been a water balloon,you would have gotten wet!"

PE is still at insane levels. Does anyone really believe the Nasdaq gained 1/4 of its total value of all time in 2023? It is dot com bubble levels plus loads of other problems(insane debt levels,some even do buy backs now with borrowed money to elevate shares,especially before bonuses are calculated).

I think everyone at the top of the heap understands the everything bubble needs to pop and wipe out some debt,they just want to control how the air is let out and who is left holding the pieces...and who just watches the breeze blow away their assets. I do not think it will be nearly as controllable as they hope.

You will hear about some large companies allowing or forcing parts of themselves away from the company...after they load some small non important part of the company with as much debt as they can(GM did this more than a decade ago).
Latest example of a debt cow off to the slaughter house. https://www.wsj.com/tech/intel-to-spin-off-programmable-solutions-group-22f3e247

Muppets slaughtered. A great disturbance in the farce.



I expect this pattern to repeat for awhile.

Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes & Financial News

Investing.com offers free real time quotes, portfolio, streaming charts, financial news, live stock market data and more.

www.investing.com

 

[smokingman]

The collapse in Treasury bonds now ranks among the worst market crashes in history

Investors have been fleeing the bond market, causing long-dated bonds to lose 46% since March 2020, Bloomberg reported.

markets.businessinsider.com

• Since March 2020, Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years or more have plummeted 46%, Bloomberg says.
• That's just under losses seen in the stock market when the dot-com bubble burst.
• The bond rout is worse than the one seen in 1981 when the 10-year yield neared 16%.

The bond-market sell-off that's sending yields soaring is starting to eclipse some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras.

Bloomberg reported losses on Treasury bond with maturities of 10 years or more had notched 46% since March 2020, while the 30-year bond had plunged 53%.

Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent history — when equities slumped 49% after the dot-com bubble burst and 57% in the aftermath of 2008.

Compared with previous bond-market meltdowns, long-term Treasurys are seeing one of the most extreme undoings in history. The losses are over twice as big as those seen in 1981 when 10-year yields neared 16%.

You don't say?
Does everyone understand most Bank reserves are held in treasury bonds. What do you think a 46%-53% loss does to them. Food for though.

"As I Look Into The Future, I See Anarchy" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Might be the last day we see the 30yr under 5%(at least for quite some time). 10/5/2023 6:55A.M.

Bonds 'in greatest bear market of all time' - BofA By Reuters

Bonds 'in greatest bear market of all time' - BofA

www.investing.com

 

[Nugget]

Does everyone understand most Bank reserves are held in treasury bonds. What do you think a 46%-53% loss does to them.

Nothing, unless or until they have to sell the bonds. The mark-to-market will look bad on the P&L, but it's a non-cash loss if they can hold til maturity, or at least hold for a few more Quarters til the economy starts showing signs of recession and the Fed starts cutting rates 150bp at a time.

 

[smokingman]

Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments

Graph and download economic data for Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments (A091RC1Q027SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q2 2023 about payments, expenditures, federal, government, interest, GDP, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Normally, banks can hold these securities to maturity and get all of their money back. That’s why they are classified into the “hold to maturity” segment. And unlike 2008, most of this has little or no credit default risk, so if they can hold on, they’re fine.


However, if depositors pull their money out of a bank above and beyond the amount of cash that the bank has on hand, then that bank might have to sell securities at a loss, rather than hold onto securities until maturity as planned. If that happens, it can turn a liquidity problem into a solvency problem, not because the securities are defaulting like they did in 2008, but instead because the banks are selling otherwise high-quality securities at a loss (due to those securities being priced at a discount in light of recent interest rate increases) and locking in those losses. The unrealized losses become realized losses for banks that can’t keep their deposits from running away.

"There's Just Way Too Much Debt": This Is Now The Greatest Bond Bear Market In History | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

it took the US until March 1975 to accumulate its first $500 billion. It just did the same in 18 days.

And just 18 days later we are at $33.513 trillion. That's $28.5 billion in new debt per day, and on pace to add another trillion in 1.5 months. https://t.co/tOrhqmldNj
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 6, 2023

 

[smokingman]

Interesting day so far. Been a long time since any market was down 2%+
I am short still so doing well.

Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes & Financial News

Investing.com offers free real time quotes, portfolio, streaming charts, financial news, live stock market data and more.

www.investing.com

 

[oze]

Interesting day so far. Been a long time since any market was down 2%+
I am short still so doing well.

Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes & Financial News

Investing.com offers free real time quotes, portfolio, streaming charts, financial news, live stock market data and more.

www.investing.com

I'm not as tall as I used to be, but I still don't consider myself short.

 

[smokingman]

I'm not as tall as I used to be, but I still don't consider myself short.

I feel 33.6% taller than I did at the end of September.
After today I may feel taller yet.

 

[foszoe]

Do you publish your daily trades for independent verification? Just ticker and price don't need volume.

I feel 33.6% taller than I did at the end of September.
After today I may feel taller yet.

 

[Dr.Midnight]

Some folks seem to be doing ok, but this guy right here has taken a beating recently.

 

[Nugget]

My wager has been doing well. Up 22.8% since the above post on Sept 21st. Still not budging,and staying short for a long time. I set some things up to sell if they went lower by more than 5% just to guard what I have made.
At the close I was up 6.8% just today.
After hours trading is crazy. Nasdaq 100 futures has huge volume. They are trying to defend 14,700(technical support) it does not look to be working. 14,703 at 9pm est. It broke that support before the closing bell,and regained it back shortly after the market closed with incredible volume. It is fading fast though. I would wager we open lower.

So what price did you get stopped out at on that SQQQ holding? Looks like it hit $23 on Friday and then got enihlated this week, down to $19.50 today.

 

[smokingman]

So what price did you get stopped out at on that SQQQ holding? Looks like it hit $23 on Friday and then got enihlated this week, down to $19.50 today.

I was out at 22.
Got back in at 19.52 today,already 19.70 after hours.*yesterday 11/2


Now 9am and well....me this a.m(11/3)....and I am not the one driving.

Doubt it is as terrible as it feels at the moment. Still a long way to go today.

 

[Nugget]

I was out at 22.
Got back in at 19.52 today,already 19.70 after hours.*yesterday 11/2


Now 9am and well....me this a.m(11/3)....and I am not the one driving.

Doubt it is as terrible as it feels at the moment. Still a long way to go today.

This is why me and Warren Buffet just buy and hold forever. Trying to be smarter than everyone else, all the time, seems like hard work.

 

[smokingman]

This is why me and Warren Buffet just buy and hold forever. Trying to be smarter than everyone else, all the time, seems like hard work.

I held,still short. Lost almost 4% Friday,but we will see what next week brings. I believe that will prove wise. I have stops a 4.9%,which will still put me up over 25% since September.

If I am wrong things will happen Monday,and my positions will close automatically. If I am right the upside is nearly ulimited(SQQQ for example hit 459k in 2010,1600 in 2020),so the upside has much more potential than the loss side. In 2020 in just days it rose 1000+%.

If everything was unicorns and rainbows(ie QE was an option) I would not even be short,but it is not currently. So I play the game again for awhile.

 

[Dr.Midnight]

This is why me and Warren Buffet just buy and hold forever. Trying to be smarter than everyone else, all the time, seems like hard work.

I'm in it for the long-haul too. I don't own a stock that doesn't pay a dividend, and those dividends go directly to purchasing additional shares. I like watching the snow-ball grow.

 

[smokingman]

This is why me and Warren Buffet just buy and hold forever. Trying to be smarter than everyone else, all the time, seems like hard work.

Berkshire Cash Pile Hits All-Time High $157 Billion, As Buffett Sells A Record $38BN In Stock In Past Year | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

From 11/4
Berkshire was a net seller of stock for the fourth quarter, liquidating another $5.3 billion in shares and bringing the total sales over the past 12 months to a record $38.3 billion.

 

[Nugget]

Berkshire Cash Pile Hits All-Time High $157 Billion, As Buffett Sells A Record $38BN In Stock In Past Year | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

From 11/4

You got me. Sell it all!!! I'm sure they sometimes have to sell losers, sell for tax purposes, etc. He is running a business after all. I would point out that he also still owns KO from 1988, AXP from 1991, and has several other holdings of 20+ years.

 

[BugI02]

This is why me and Warren Buffet just buy and hold forever. Trying to be smarter than everyone else, all the time, seems like hard work.

"Time in the market beats timing the market"