Did world war 3 just start?

[Trigger Time]

Where did all the liberals come from and why are they here

 

[BugI02]

Talk about bad timing for Iran.

A 737 going to Ukraine just crashed in Iran due to technical issues just after takeoff. If I was them, I'd be sweating bullets.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...er-jet-crashes-in-iran-due-to-technical-issue

Have the Democrats blamed Trump and the US military yet?

 

[ATOMonkey]

Have you ever seen an aircraft crash site? Other than a crash during takeoff or landing at near zero altitude, if one falls from the sky as this one did from just over 7000 feet, there won't be anything left bigger than your forearm. The huge fireball in the video is the full load of fuel sufficient for the flight duration exploding on impact. I'm putting my money on aircraft malfunction. Ukrainian airliner, flying to Kiev, with nearly all of its passengers Iranian students returning to school in the Ukraine, plus a couple dozen foreign passengers. OTOH, a grossly negligent shoot down by idiot Iranian air defense personnel, or some other radical loony with a "zip gun", wouldn't surprise me. In the Conspiracy Theory Column, there's a less likely possibility of a false flag deliberate shoot down. Such a perfidious and treacherous act would be well within the realm of the morally and ethically bankrupt Ayatollah and his government cronies - and Putin's as well. Iran stating it's not going to give the black boxes to Boeing doesn't surprise me. The Ukraine, however, has a legitimate claim to them as it was their flagged airliner that went down.

John

An exaggeration to be sure, but yes, lots of bits and pieces everywhere.

I am also willing to bet on stupidity. It was either stupidly shot down, or stupidly flown into the ground, or stupidly maintained, or maybe a combination of all 3.

I have seen video of a C-130 crashing shortly after takeoff with only a single engine failure. Pilot did everything the exact wrong way.

Both 737 Max crashes were because of the pilot's failure to recognize and correctly respond to the situation.

 

[Sigblitz]

The President will speak soon. The politicians are speaking right now.

 

[BugI02]

I believe so.

Too slow, all modern SAMs pretty much solid fuel. Fire trail sheds visibly hot debris at ~:08-9 seconds, likely internal engine parts or part of the airframe. Whatever happened happened off camera

Catastrophic failure of a CFM56 certainly possible (esp. if poorly maintained) but very unlikely. If only one engine failed, a/c should still be flyable if not overloaded. More here than meets the eye

 

[Sigblitz]

11am

 

[Sigblitz]

Too slow, all modern SAMs pretty much solid fuel. Fire trail sheds visibly hot debris at ~:08-9 seconds, likely internal engine parts or part of the airframe. Whatever happened happened off camera

Catastrophic failure of a CFM56 certainly possible (esp. if poorly maintained) but very unlikely. If only one engine failed, a/c should still be flyable if not overloaded. More here than meets the eye

I could go either way. To me, it looks like a missile. And the blinking lights look like an aircraft. And it was quickly reported that it was shot down by Iran's missile defense system.
And if it is an oops, and could be reported as mechanical failure, it's going to be mechanical failure from this day forward.

 

[BugI02]

Iranian official tells state television that his country can hit a hundred other American targets if the Trump Administration retaliates.

This is one of the few times I really do have a worry when it comes to Trump's attitude. Maybe I'm pessimistic and just think he's the type to ignore the "win" and take this bait. Or, alternatively, maybe he's surrounded by far smarter people that realize this is an empty threat, and the best course of action is inaction.

Biases showing?

If Trump does something you consider stupid, it appears you are ready to chalk it up as being all Trump

If he does what you consider smart, you appear ready to chalk it up to other, smarter people restraining his rash impulses

Isn't there a third possibility? That he actually knows what he's doing?

Nah. Just ignore what he's managed to accomplish or chalk it up to 'dumb luck'

 

[Trigger Time]

Id reduce irans military and leadership to rubble then id completely leave iraq too and cut off all funding and send them a bill

 

[avboiler11]

Have you ever seen an aircraft crash site? Other than a crash during takeoff or landing at near zero altitude, if one falls from the sky as this one did from just over 7000 feet, there won't be anything left bigger than your forearm.

This is not true...and yes I’ve been to an accident site with 400kt impact speeds in the last 14 months.

This in no way looks like an aircraft malfunction.

 

[BugI02]

So you wanted Trump to retaliate even though there were apparently no US casualties? The whole point was about Trump exhibiting restraint when people were'nt so sure that he was capable of doing so.

He just wants Trump to make a mistake. That would make the continuous retconning of the Obama administration's fecklessness easier

 

[avboiler11]

https://ops.group/blog/risk-assessing-iran-ops-the-uia-737-may-have-been-shot-down/

 

[Trigger Time]

https://ops.group/blog/risk-assessing-iran-ops-the-uia-737-may-have-been-shot-down/

Well well well. That's certainly not normal.
I'm sure they shot it down. I have zero doubt

 

[Indyal]

Or the plane itself was going to be a weapon

 

[BugI02]

So far all I've heard this morning is indicating it was mechanical issues that caused the plane crash. Not really surprising given Boeing's recent history.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...70-passengers-feared-dead-ukraine-boeing-737/

The first thing to note about the crash of Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 is that the aircraft was a Boeing 737-800, a different model to the 737 Max, the type which was grounded last year after two crashes in five months.
The 737-800 - part of Boeing’s 737 Next Generation (NG) family - does not have the “MCAS” control system fitted to the Max, and which is blamed for the two crashes.
A modernised version of the 737 classic model dating from the 1960s, 737 NGs are one of the most popular airliners ever.
More than 7,000 737 NGs, of which about 5,000 are the 800 model, are in service and the aircraft has a very good safety record. Prior to PS752, there had been nine accidents involving the aircraft type which have resulted in fatalities.
One was the result of a mid-air collision, and all but one of the rest have been attributed to either weather problems, pilot error, maintenance issues or a combination of these factors. The final incident saw an engine failure which sent debris into the cabin, causing the aircraft to decompress. A passenger was partially sucked from the aircraft and later died from her injuries.
Overall, the 737 NG has a fatal crash rate of 0.06 fatalities per million flights according to data from Airsafe, making it one of the safest aircraft in service.

 

[BugI02]

https://ops.group/blog/risk-assessing-iran-ops-the-uia-737-may-have-been-shot-down/

Good post

One other thing that came to mind. That China Airlines flight that burned at the gate after landing in 2018. IIRK there was some kind of bolt on a flap stop getting loose and puncturing fuel plumbing/tank. I think an emergency AD was supposed to be done, but with sketchy airlines who knows

I've seen the footage of that fire, and if it happened in flight it would be a nightmare. Lack of crew communication with the ground could be they were just too busy fighting for their lives. If it was hostile action could just as likely be onboard bomb in a country like Iran that likely has porous security if you're connected to the right faction

 

[KG1]

Damn. It looks like the liberals got to Trump. The plans for a glass installation have been put on hold.

No military retaliation at this time.

 

[avboiler11]

Allowing the Iranian “response” to stand isn’t weak, but rather a reasoned and appropriate deescalation given no US casualties

Smart move, IMO...especially since we can always smash their bases with Tomahawks and JASSM-ERs later if it proves necessary.

 

[KG1]

It is beginning to be apparent that the elimination of Soleimani was the right thing to do and sent a very powerful message to Iran that may have gotten their attention.

Iran obviously did not want an escalation due to the outcome of their half assed “retaliation” that appears to be intentional.

The liberal Democrats and their msm wing have been proven to be on the wrong side of history for not backing this particular President in this endeavor for political reasons.

 

[Sigblitz]

My confidence in the administration went up a notch.