Beer Virus V

[bwframe]

Boy, this thread's took a slow turn...

 

[printcraft]

Boy, this thread's took a slow turn...

Looks like some cleansing, or my mind is playing tricks on me... could be both.

Some people who are "strongly" advocating everyone else must take a dubious vaccine really need to heed their own advice and take a

 

[IndyBeerman]

Looks like 4 people died in the Capitol building takeover yesterday.

But about 4,000 died from COVID yesterday.

More than 15,000 people died in the first week of 2021. I believe the first recorded COVID death was on Feb. 29, 2020, in the US. From that date, it took about 40 days to hit 15k deaths.

Correct, but the news is not reporting that 3 of them was health related deaths.

 

[bwframe]

Wonder if the other three died of covid? Or if they will be counted as such?

 

[HoughMade]

Well, I appear to have been wrong. We seem to be having a post-holiday spike. About 7,200 new cases today, 6,800 yesterday. We'll see how long this lasts. Still relatively good hospital and ICU numbers. It will be interesting to see what happens to the death rate and hospitalization once the 80 and over vaccines are rolling. Tomorrow they are starting to take appointments for those over 80 to be vaccinated. Until now, it has been healthcare providers and those living in nursing homes.

 

[T.Lex]

Well, I appear to have been wrong. We seem to be having a post-holiday spike. About 7,200 new cases today, 6,800 yesterday. We'll see how long this lasts. Still relatively good hospital and ICU numbers. It will be interesting to see what happens to the death rate and hospitalization once the 80 and over vaccines are rolling. Tomorrow they are starting to take appointments for those over 80 to be vaccinated. Until now, it has been healthcare providers and those living in nursing homes.

Welcome to my world of watching the numbers.

I think it is still too early to call it a "spike." But, the trend is disturbing.

 

[HoughMade]

Welcome to my world of watching the numbers.

I think it is still too early to call it a "spike." But, the trend is disturbing.

I agree. It is too early. There are issues of people putting off being tested and now that the holidays are over getting tested and issues where those reporting may not have been working consistently over the 2 weeks before this. 2 or 3 more days will tell the tale.

I am doing what I can to lower the positivity rate by getting tested for no good reason...other than my daughter's college's mandate.

 

[nonobaddog]

Powerful video about what has really been going on in some hospitals - focusing on New York.

 

[nonobaddog]

CDC came out with a "model" that says COVID-19 infected but asymptomatic people account for 59% of the transmission of new cases. They say this makes it really, really important to do what they tell you to do. Not everybody believes them - go figure.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2021/01/07/covid-asymptomatic-spread/

 

[MCgrease08]

CDC came out with a "model" that says COVID-19 infected but asymptomatic people account for 59% of the transmission of new cases. They say this makes it really, really important to do what they tell you to do. Not everybody believes them - go figure.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2021/01/07/covid-asymptomatic-spread/

Considering all of the contract tracing being done, wouldn't a study of actual cases be more beneficial to gauge asymptomatic spread rather then using a model?

 

[nonobaddog]

Considering all of the contract tracing being done, wouldn't a study of actual cases be more beneficial to gauge asymptomatic spread rather then using a model?

I tend to agree but there may be a built in bias.
The study would need to look at only cases where it was determined with some confidence who the new case caught it from. This subset of the population may not be representative of the whole population of new cases.
I'm thinking it might be easier to determine if a new case caught it from somebody with symptoms compared to determining if a new case caought it from somebody without symptoms. This would tend to bias the study toward more symptomatic spreading over asymptomatic spreading.

 

[BugI02]

US wordometers derived CFR drops under 1.7% to 1.69%. At the current rate of decline we will drop under Japan's rate by about February 10th

 

[foszoe]

US wordometers derived CFR drops under 1.7% to 1.69%. At the current rate of decline we will drop under Japan's rate by about February 10th

Does wordometers have margins of error?

 

[T.Lex]

Does wordometers have margins of error?

Not really. It allows for a straight up deaths/cases equation.

Perhaps more importantly, the CFR is leveling and by my estimation that sort of metric will bottom out at about 1.5%. It took 55 days for it to go from 4% to 3%; 84 days to go from 3% to 2%; and has been under 2% for 40 days and is only down to 1.69%.

I think I mentioned this before, but that kind of "absolute" (my label) CFR is only one metric. If you take the average daily CFR (that is, track each day's CFR, then average them), then it is at 3.43%. But, the bias there is that it includes a timeframe in which our testing wasn't very thorough.

It is also important to keep in mind that any sort of "actual" (my label) CFR won't be established until the statisticians can dig in with some more reliable numbers about the a-/non-symptomatic cases. I wouldn't be surprised if it is under 1%, just because they really don't know how this is transmitted. Well, we know some of the vectors that can be summarized by "proximity." But I have little confidence about any sort of deeper understanding of how to stop it from being transmitted.

 

[IndyDave1776]

I believe the traditional Chinese New Year hasn't happened yet and the Year of the OX will be ushered in at 1600 GMT on February 11th

7.62 x 63

Are you sure it isn't the year of the Jackass?

Are you having some fun at our expense seeing who will recognize .30/06 converted to metric?

 

[nonobaddog]

Manhattan Beach, California seems to have this figured out. As their wuhu cases surge they banned public sitting, yes - sitting. No more sitting on public property, in fact they have removed all park benches and public sitting facilities.

They already had some of the tightest restrictions around that were not working well, so apparently this extra restriction was what they needed.

 

[actaeon277]

 

[BugI02]

Are you sure it isn't the year of the Jackass?

Are you having some fun at our expense seeing who will recognize .30/06 converted to metric?

Of course!

 

[BugI02]

Not really. It allows for a straight up deaths/cases equation.

Perhaps more importantly, the CFR is leveling and by my estimation that sort of metric will bottom out at about 1.5%. It took 55 days for it to go from 4% to 3%; 84 days to go from 3% to 2%; and has been under 2% for 40 days and is only down to 1.69%.

I think I mentioned this before, but that kind of "absolute" (my label) CFR is only one metric. If you take the average daily CFR (that is, track each day's CFR, then average them), then it is at 3.43%. But, the bias there is that it includes a timeframe in which our testing wasn't very thorough.

It is also important to keep in mind that any sort of "actual" (my label) CFR won't be established until the statisticians can dig in with some more reliable numbers about the a-/non-symptomatic cases. I wouldn't be surprised if it is under 1%, just because they really don't know how this is transmitted. Well, we know some of the vectors that can be summarized by "proximity." But I have little confidence about any sort of deeper understanding of how to stop it from being transmitted.

I am unable to come up with a rational theory for why our worldometers derived CFR is dropping, Germany's is rising and Japan's is staying the same

 

[nonobaddog]

I am unable to come up with a rational theory for why our worldometers derived CFR is dropping, Germany's is rising and Japan's is staying the same

Theories do not have to be rational.