Beer Virus V

[BugI02]

Theories do not have to be rational.

Maybe not up there above the arctic circle

 

[Ark]

Considering all of the contract tracing being done, wouldn't a study of actual cases be more beneficial to gauge asymptomatic spread rather then using a model?

Well, those have been done, and have shown that asymptomatic spread effectively doesn't exist.

The model is used because it justifies the policy.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

No, this isn't normal at all. This Nightingale hospital is basically shut down while other hospitals nearby are overflowing and treating some patients in the ambulances and parking lots because they are so full. Those hospitals don't have enough beds or staff to deal with the numbers yet this Nightingale hospital is loafing.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9097227/PAUL-BRACCHI-make-sick.html

Here's an article that includes the London Nightingale "hospital". It is floorspace at the ExCel Convention Centre. As far as I can find, it's not "dismantled" as it has never been "mantled", lol! No beds, no staff, just space...

Other Nightingale Hospitals in different parts of UK have been brought online... they are emergency overflow space, not much more until they are equipped, and most critically, staffed, which is the bottleneck according to the article.

ON STAND-BY London’s Nightingale hospital ‘reactivated’ after sitting empty – as NHS staff told to be ‘ready for Covid patients’

 

[JettaKnight]

Here's an article that includes the London Nightingale "hospital". It is floorspace at the ExCel Convention Centre. As far as I can find, it's not "dismantled" as it has never been "mantled", lol! No beds, no staff, just space...

Well, the NHS is a bit spartan.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I am unable to come up with a rational theory for why our worldometers derived CFR is dropping, Germany's is rising and Japan's is staying the same

Readily available testing.

When testing was scarce and only the most severe/critical symptomatic cases were being tested, those most likely to prove fatal, it skewed the CFR far higher than reality.

With near "universally available" testing, the CFR should trend towards the IFR which IIRC was 0.5-1%.

 

[nonobaddog]

Here's an article that includes the London Nightingale "hospital". It is floorspace at the ExCel Convention Centre. As far as I can find, it's not "dismantled" as it has never been "mantled", lol! No beds, no staff, just space...

Other Nightingale Hospitals in different parts of UK have been brought online... they are emergency overflow space, not much more until they are equipped, and most critically, staffed, which is the bottleneck according to the article.

ON STAND-BY London’s Nightingale hospital ‘reactivated’ after sitting empty – as NHS staff told to be ‘ready for Covid patients’

?!? Are you being disingenuous on purpose?
Of course it was "mantled". That is the whole point of it.
They spent a ton of money on it and treated just over 50 patients and now it is vacant when they say other hospitals are supposedly overflowing. It cost about $1M for each patient treated there. Kind of a good example of funny thinking.

https://www.google.com/search?q=nig...WSB80KHQvoCxMQ_AUoAnoECAMQBA&biw=1323&bih=949

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-take-a-look-inside-nhs-nightingale.html

 

[T.Lex]

I gotta admit, the news of the "more transmissible" variant in IN is disconcerting. Hasn't really changed how I behave, but it is still unsettling.

Heard/read of another prediction that this will develop into a multi-strain situation like the flu, with different vaccines being necessary every year, with a deadlier downside.

That would suck.

 

[jamil]

Are you sure it isn't the year of the Jackass?

Are you having some fun at our expense seeing who will recognize .30/06 converted to metric?

Factcheck: yes. Yes it is.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

?!? Are you being disingenuous on purpose?
Of course it was "mantled". That is the whole point of it.
They spent a ton of money on it and treated just over 50 patients and now it is vacant when they say other hospitals are supposedly overflowing. It cost about $1M for each patient treated there. Kind of a good example of funny thinking.

https://www.google.com/search?q=nig...WSB80KHQvoCxMQ_AUoAnoECAMQBA&biw=1323&bih=949

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-take-a-look-inside-nhs-nightingale.html

I stand corrected... the Sun article indicated incorrectly that the facility had not been used. It had been used in the Spring, treating 51 patients, before closing in May... so it was "dismantled".

Still does not change the fact that it is not a "hospital" where docs/nurses are sitting around loafing, but an emergency conference center space.

Billed as a "4,000 bed ICU", normal staffing would be 2,000 ICU Nurses per shift! Even at 4-6 ICU patients per ICU nurse with aide(s), that's an awful lot of staffing that doesn't just "materialize".

Probably why, according to the latest news I see, they are using it as a vaccination center.

And from this article in the Spring, it appears that the maximum capacity this facility had in the Spring (beds/equipment/staff) was 30.

Coronavirus: understaffed Nightingale hospital rejects dozens of patients

 

[nonobaddog]

Kind of like here. We converted lots of places into wuhu hospitals, such as McCormick Place in chicago, at a cost of $66M and treated 38 patients at a cost of $1.7M per patient. Then they dismantled it and now say they need more hospital beds. Things like this are a huge waste and are just part of a huge money laundering scheme to rip off taxpayers.

 

[BugI02]

Readily available testing.

When testing was scarce and only the most severe/critical symptomatic cases were being tested, those most likely to prove fatal, it skewed the CFR far higher than reality.

With near "universally available" testing, the CFR should trend towards the IFR which IIRC was 0.5-1%.

That doesn't explain why Germany's CFR is rising and Japan's is stagnant

 

[SheepDog4Life]

That doesn't explain why Germany's CFR is rising and Japan's is stagnant

Because fatalities lag new cases....significantly... by 4 to 8 weeks. Just look at the lag between the summer cases peak and fatalities peak in Japan, for example.

Germany's cases have (mostly) plateaued for more than that 4-8 week lag, so the fatalities from the earlier cases are "catching up".

Japan's cases are in an upward spike that is much higher than any previous in that country. The fatalities for today's record number of cases, for example, will not show up for another 4-8 weeks... so it "waters down" the CFR, today, while cases are surging.

Computing CFR using current case totals and current fatality totals would only be accurate if COVID was fatal instantly after testing positive. It's just how the math works with two series that have time lag between them.

ETA: the correct way to compute CFR would be to track each individual case until that case resolves to either recovery or fatality. You don't get that with the raw numbers.

 

[BugI02]

Because fatalities lag new cases....significantly... by 4 to 8 weeks. Just look at the lag between the summer cases peak and fatalities peak in Japan, for example.

Germany's cases have (mostly) plateaued for more than that 4-8 week lag, so the fatalities from the earlier cases are "catching up".

Japan's cases are in an upward spike that is much higher than any previous in that country. The fatalities for today's record number of cases, for example, will not show up for another 4-8 weeks... so it "waters down" the CFR, today, while cases are surging.

Computing CFR using current case totals and current fatality totals would only be accurate if COVID was fatal instantly after testing positive. It's just how the math works with two series that have time lag between them.

ETA: the correct way to compute CFR would be to track each individual case until that case resolves to either recovery or fatality. You don't get that with the raw numbers.

Computing CFR with worldometers data is useful as a cross-comparison as all values are derived via the same technique so any systematic error should cancel out

I just think it funny that Japan, the poster child for the masketeers, can't seem to make any headway and all factors being equal will be passed by the US ~10 Feb 21

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Computing CFR with worldometers data is useful as a cross-comparison as all values are derived via the same technique so any systematic error should cancel out

I just think it funny that Japan, the poster child for the masketeers, can't seem to make any headway and all factors being equal will be passed by the US ~10 Feb 21

Well, let's see... US population is 328.2M, Japan's is 126.3M.

Japan has had 292,000 cases with 4100 deaths.

So, if the US were doing as "poorly" as Japan, proportionately by population, we would have 759,000 cases and 10,700 deaths.

Oh, wait, we've had 23,370,000 cases and 389,600 deaths... more than 30 times the number of cases and more than 36 times the number of deaths versus Japan prorated to our population size.

So, yeah, we're winning, but not in the good way.

 

[T.Lex]

Heya Hough (and others) - I know you were tracking the ICU availability and it looks like its been pretty stable the last few days at ~25% available. That's a good trend. Also, it looks like the hospitalizations are trending down.

Seems like Indiana is moving in the right direction.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Heya Hough (and others) - I know you were tracking the ICU availability and it looks like its been pretty stable the last few days at ~25% available. That's a good trend. Also, it looks like the hospitalizations are trending down.

Seems like Indiana is moving in the right direction.

T, I agree... the ICU stat I track is percent used for COVID, which is currently down to 26% from a high/peak of ~45% about a month ago. Also, hospital COVID census definitely peaked and is trending (slowly) down.

I'll do one of my full posts on the stats this weekend when I have time. By then, we'll see if the Christmas peak in cases has fully subsided, as it appears.

 

[T.Lex]

T, I agree... the ICU stat I track is percent used for COVID, which is currently down to 26% from a high/peak of ~45% about a month ago. Also, hospital COVID census definitely peaked and is trending (slowly) down.

I'll do one of my full posts on the stats this weekend when I have time. By then, we'll see if the Christmas peak in cases has fully subsided, as it appears.

Cool.

For as good as we Hoosiers are doing, nationally, things are not good. Which means there are some places in the US doing very poorly. From what I can tell, the population centers in SoCal are really bad.

We're still (nationally) in exponential growth of deaths, and the CFR rate is still decreasing, but at a pretty flat rate - currently at ~1.67%.

One other item of note: the overall critical-death calculation (daily deaths/daily critical) is ~7.5%. The rolling 7 day average is nearly 12%. That suggests (at least to me) that the virus, at least in certain locales, is more difficult to treat right now. The 2 natural suppositions are that it is something about the virus or something about the care that is different. Maybe some of both.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Here's what Indiana hospitalization outcomes look like, both since March 1 and since August 1. I tend to discount the early data relative to percents of COVID+ cases since testing was so scarce early on. I know people in early July who got tests approved because they had flown to other states, so July is probably valid also, but prior to that, I think there is just too much unknown from lack of testing capacity/availability.





Not sure how the hospital mortality relates to the metrics you quoted.

 

[T.Lex]

Not sure how the hospital mortality relates to the metrics you quoted.

On that, the worldometers sourcing for serious/critical is still a black box for me. I just don't know how they get it.

But, it does appear to have a stable set of sources. In that way, I treat it as a proxy for overall rate of sick people who die.

 

[GMediC]

Cool.

For as good as we Hoosiers are doing, nationally, things are not good. Which means there are some places in the US doing very poorly. From what I can tell, the population centers in SoCal are really bad.

We're still (nationally) in exponential growth of deaths, and the CFR rate is still decreasing, but at a pretty flat rate - currently at ~1.67%.

One other item of note: the overall critical-death calculation (daily deaths/daily critical) is ~7.5%. The rolling 7 day average is nearly 12%. That suggests (at least to me) that the virus, at least in certain locales, is more difficult to treat right now. The 2 natural suppositions are that it is something about the virus or something about the care that is different. Maybe some of both.

SoCal, (like NYC that early "flatten the curve" campaigns were based off of), has suffered a decades long bed shortage. Their current situation is due to consistent failures of their own making.

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