Will you take the Covid Vaccine?

[smokingman]

Even if that doctor from FL's death is directly attributable to the COVID vaccine...

Odds of death from vaccine would be what, 1 in 5,000,000?

Compare that to the odds of dying from COVID. Based on the 9 Jan CDC update CFR is 1.68%; consider the CDC's estimate of 8 actual infections to every confirmed positive and you'd get an IFR of 0.21%.

Across all demographics, that'd make odds of death from COVID 1 in 476.

Of course, not all demographics are equal with regards to COVID outcomes. Looking at reported CDC demographics for cases and deaths, and considering the CDC's estimate of actual vs confirmed positive cases, the odds of death from COVID for the 0-49 age demographic is 1 in 6859.

The math seems to make that a fairly straightforward value proposition.

You missed the earlier post I made. The Pfizer vaccine is 66% effective in preventing cases(against strains it was tested against). So you can cut your 5,000,000 figure to 3,300,000. If we are just going to analyze overall math.

You can look up the CFR and find anything you want. I remember when the CDC published the .04 cfr and every news media source on earth published it. It seems to change more with political winds than it does actual science. I also could not find the report you are referencing for a CFR either,do you have a link?

And yes I still remember https://statmodeling.stat.columbia....-surgisphere-harvard-data-have-been-analyzed/

and pointed out it was bad data weeks before the Lancet and NEJM retracted the study here on INGO.,

 

[smokingman]

Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say (Published 2020)

Rapidly rising caseloads alarm researchers, who fear the virus may make its way across the globe. But scientists cannot yet predict how many deaths may result.

www.nytimes.com

Right at 11 months ago the entire world, mainstream media, and politicians called it the Wuhan Flu.

Rightly so. It originated in Wuhan China.

The WHO is expressing anger toward China this week,as China has blocked their investigators yet again. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/05/china/china-blocks-who-team-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

I remember the day the WHO officially named it covid-19 at the behest of China.

The name is and has become a political game like the reaction to the sars-cov2 virus itself. The entire world should have reacted differently than it did.

Back to the vaccines.

MSN

More science. If you are 18-55 years old you have a 27% chance of having an adverse reaction to the vaccine,per the safety and efficacy study that has allowed it to be issued emergency use status by the FDA.If you are 55+ you only have an 11% chance of an adverse reaction. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

Also of note. Here are the financial disclosures attached to that study. Of the 28PHD's involved in the study, ONE( Dr. Frenck)did not have ties to Pfizer prior to the study. He was also almost removed from the study twice for "slowing" the study by asking questions about methodology and conclusions(he did not agree with how the 2 deaths after vaccination were handled). But...anyway. Here they are for all to see. https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577/suppl_file/nejmoa2034577_disclosures.pdf

Still not getting it.

Why people think it is 95% effective is the word salad being used to push people to get it.
95% effective at reducing "symptomatic" cases is not the same as 95% effective. It is 66% effective period. The 95% number is only remotely true because almost 40% of all who contract covid-19 never have symptoms to begin with.

Reposting the study that was used for the emergency use authorization. It clearly states 66%

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

 

[avboiler11]

You missed the earlier post I made. The Pfizer vaccine is 66% effective in preventing cases(against strains it was tested against). So you can cut your 5,000,000 figure to 3,300,000. If we are just going to analyze overall math.

No, I did not miss your earlier post.

Respectfully, I don't see how the Pfizer vaccine's ability to prevent COVID infections has any applicability whatsoever in the ratio of adverse vaccine reaction deaths to total people vaccinated.

Since we're talking public math here...my source is the CDC COVID Data Tracker

Case Fatality Ratio is derived from Deaths divided by Confirmed Postive Cases.

367,652 deaths / 21,853,491 confirmed positive cases = 1.6823% CFR.

Infection Fatality Ratio is derived from Deaths divided by Actual Infections. There's no way to KNOW actual infections so that is estimated; CDC has estimated those to be 8 actual infections for every confirmed positive case. I could multiply the confirmed positive cases by 8 then do the same math above again, or simply divide the derived CFR with the ratio of actual infections to confirmed positive cases to achieve the same answer.

1.6823% CFR / 8 actual infections per confirmed positive case = 0.21% IFR.

Infection Fatality Ratio is, of course, an ESTIMATE based on ESTIMATED actual infections, but one using similar methodology to the scientifically-accepted estimated made every year for influenza and based on the results of local and regional serosurveys from across the country.

...but a 0.21% IFR would put SARS-CoV-2 at a level of mortality similar to the 1968 H3N2 "Hong Kong Flu" pandemic.

 

[smokingman]

No, I did not miss your earlier post.

Respectfully, I don't see how the Pfizer vaccine's ability to prevent COVID infections has any applicability whatsoever in the ratio of adverse vaccine reaction deaths to total people vaccinated.

Since we're talking public math here...my source is the CDC COVID Data Tracker

Case Fatality Ratio is derived from Deaths divided by Confirmed Postive Cases.

367,652 deaths / 21,853,491 confirmed positive cases = 1.6823% CFR.

Infection Fatality Ratio is derived from Deaths divided by Actual Infections. There's no way to KNOW actual infections so that is estimated; CDC has estimated those to be 8 actual infections for every confirmed positive case. I could multiply the confirmed positive cases by 8 then do the same math above again, or simply divide the derived CFR with the ratio of actual infections to confirmed positive cases to achieve the same answer.

1.6823% CFR / 8 actual infections per confirmed positive case = 0.21% IFR.

Infection Fatality Ratio is, of course, an ESTIMATE based on ESTIMATED actual infections, but one using similar methodology to the scientifically-accepted estimated made every year for influenza and based on the results of local and regional serosurveys from across the country.

...but a 0.21% IFR would put SARS-CoV-2 at a level of mortality similar to the 1968 H3N2 "Hong Kong Flu" pandemic.,

Right. The CDC estimates less than .2 under 49 years old. It is also clear by the data most deaths are over 80(16x more according to the CDC).

0-19 Years 99.997% 20-49 Years 99.98% 50-69 Years 99.5% 70+ 94.6% *80+ not included

Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by Sex and Age | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

data.cdc.gov

I have no problem with anyone wanting to take the vaccine. I was sounding the alarm about this long before it was on many people's radar. I advised wearing a mask when our own CDC was advising against wearing masks.

I also want those who make the choice to get the vaccine to understand the risk of both getting it and not getting it. To understand it is not even effective 34% of the time against any strain of covid, and the science is still out on rather it will be effective at all against different strains than it was originally tested against.

We do not know the long term impacts of the vaccine on the human body.
We have seen a healthy doctor die shortly after the injection of the vaccine as his own body destroyed his platelets. Even Pfizer is looking into why.

It is an emergency use authorization that enables it to be used. It is not without risk and saying the risk is greater if you do not take it is something that is unknown.

I will wait for more science for sure. Especially since I do not fall into any high-risk group.

 

[dusty88]

In the poll I said maybe. Depends on two things. 1) you first. If you don't die, maybe I won't either. 2) Does it stop the spread?

If you die, and it doesn't stop the spread of covid anyway, I'm kinda thinking about declining. But, if you don't die, and it does seem to work to stop the spread? Sure. But like I said, you first.

Studies are underway to determine if vaccinated people will or will not still spread some virus after infection. I'll very comfortably wager that the vaccine will, at minimum, greatly reduce the time and volume of transmission from the vaccinated individual.

For that to be effective on the population level a lot more people will need to be vaccinated.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Why people think it is 95% effective is the word salad being used to push people to get it.
95% effective at reducing "symptomatic" cases is not the same as 95% effective. It is 66% effective period. The 95% number is only remotely true because almost 40% of all who contract covid-19 never have symptoms to begin with.

Reposting the study that was used for the emergency use authorization. It clearly states 66%

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

So the 29% percent who would pop "positive" if tested and never have a single symptom is "no effect"? smh

Not to mention that they would be highly unlikely to pass the virus on...

 

[smokingman]

So the 29% percent who would pop "positive" if tested and never have a single symptom is "no effect"? smh

Not to mention that they would be highly unlikely to pass the virus on...

You know what. It really does not matter. When a published article can be edited after it is used for an emergency use authorization and then edited almost daily for over a month it really does no longer have any meaning. https://web.archive.org/web/20200801000000*/https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
Note a green circle means you are being redirected to a "new" version.

You can take the vaccine if you like. Currently, we have enough doses for around 3% of the population so arguing about getting others to take it should not be a thing.

If people want to take it let them get in line to take it. If they don't great...we do not have enough doses anyway.

If and when we do have enough doses we will certainly know more than we do now.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Ok, we'll just have to disagree... preventing symptoms (and likely preventing being contagious) do matter, IMO.

 

[jamil]

Studies are underway to determine if vaccinated people will or will not still spread some virus after infection. I'll very comfortably wager that the vaccine will, at minimum, greatly reduce the time and volume of transmission from the vaccinated individual.

For that to be effective on the population level a lot more people will need to be vaccinated.

I'm not gonna take that bet. It's probably at least as effective as masks.

 

[smokingman]

Ok, we'll just have to disagree... preventing symptoms (and likely preventing being contagious) do matter, IMO.

How does trying to persuade others help in any way?

The USA currently has 22 million doses of vaccine and over 330 million people.Even the 22 million is really 11 million as everyone needs two doses.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

How does trying to persuade others help in any way?

The USA currently has 22 million doses of vaccine and over 330 million people.Even the 22 million is really 11 million as everyone needs two doses.

So, if I think you're erroneous in opinion/facts, then I'm cheerleading? Sheesh, people!

IMO, especially for those at high risk of severe or fatal symptoms, preventing symptoms matters hugely! And, especially for them, if it prevents those symptoms, I tend to think they would judge that to be effective... and that it matters.

However, the part I agree with you is that TPTB should be more transparent that the vaccine(s) are 66% effective in preventing infection PLUS 29% effective in preventing symptoms when stating a 95% effective rate.

And, the numbers change daily, it's now 24.1M doses shipped. Given that it's been less than a month since the first (Pfizer) was approved, that is pretty amazing. They are still in the ramping up phase of production and Pfizer recently agreed to ship 200M doses for the US by the end of June. Didn't find Moderna's numbers in my 30-second google search, but it'll only be a matter of months before a vaccine is available beyond HC workers, elderly, etc.

ETA: And they update the clinical trial with new information when it becomes available. Those people are still vaccinated and the virus is still out there... that didn't stop just because they had sufficient statistics to meet the trial guidelines and so many months. IF THEY DIDN'T, some would say they were hiding what happens beyond 3 months... right? That's not the type of thing SmokingMan was talking about so striking this.

 

[smokingman]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

J&J One-Shot Vaccine Is Safe In Early Trials, Generates "Promising Immune Response​

It does not need supercooling and is based on the same technology they used for their Ebola vaccine.

It will likely be available in February.

 

[CampingJosh]

My wife got her second shot (Pfizer) about 25 hours ago. Slightly elevated temperature all day, lots of muscle soreness, and some lethargy.

I'll take whichever is available to me first... except the Russian one.

 

[JettaKnight]

My wife got her second shot (Pfizer) about 25 hours ago. Slightly elevated temperature all day, lots of muscle soreness, and some lethargy.

I'll take whichever is available to me first... except the Russian one.

...or the Chinese one.

 

[CampingJosh]

...or the Chinese one.

I assume theirs is just an unlicensed copy.

 

[OneBadV8]

I assume theirs is just an unlicensed copy.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Assuming you don’t work for yourself, your employer potentially may be able to compel you to do so. And for the record, I don’t like that either.

not until it gets final FDA approval

I just took second dose yesterday

 

[Bennettjh]

My wife gets her second one next Monday I believe. Says she's heard reports that it causes more side effects than the first. I think she got Pfizer.

 

[Jaybird1980]

My wife gets her second one next Monday I believe. Says she's heard reports that it causes more side effects than the first. I think she got Pfizer.

Please report back if she does have side effects, the wifes second dose of Pfizer is the 23

 

[avboiler11]

I know two nurses who experienced fatigue, muscle aches, and fevers of 100-101 for about a day after their second dose. Nothing awful or “severe” but noticeable. I think they both were Pfizer.

I know others who had nothing worse than a sore arm.