Stock market.... What are you doing?

[maxwelhse]

That is very sound advice in any endeavor. To quote Janice Joplin, "Freedom's just another word, for nothin' left to lose."

I dunno, man... If I was prepared to lose anything I ever put in, I'd still be a virgin.

 

[smokingman]

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said it will offer $1 trillion of overnight loans a day through the end of this month to large banks. That is in addition to $1 trillion in 14-day loans it is offering every week

The Fed is also trying to clear markets by ramping up its purchases. On Friday, it bought $75 billion of Treasurys and $47 billion of mortgage-backed securities. By comparison, when the Fed engaged in long-term asset purchases in its third round of quantitative easing in 2012, it bought $45 billion a month.
All told, the New York Fed has bought about $280 billion of Treasuries, more than half of its planned $500 billion. On Friday it said will buy $100 billion of mortgage-backed bonds next week, including $40 billion on Monday.



“They’ve effectively thrown the kitchen sink at the markets and the economy,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, senior U.S. rates strategist for TD Securities.

The Fed also announced Friday that it would expand an emergency lending program, which it just launched Wednesday, to loan money to banks, which would use the funds to purchase highly rated municipal bonds from money market mutual funds or from muni bond funds. The goal is to stabilize the $3.8 trillion muni bond market and ensure states and cities and other public entities, including hospitals, can borrow at low cost.

I posted less than 1/3 of article. More programs almost daily starting from the FED and US Treasury(which is now giving the FED money for banks to use as their required .05% capitol last I read was 10 billion per day).



https://www.pbs.org/newshour/econom...nd-additional-1-trillion-a-day-to-large-banks
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm945

 

[smokingman]

Stock futures locked limit down again.

https://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/nyse-set-to-temporarily-transition-to-all-electronic-trading.html
[h=1]NYSE readies itself for first ever all-electronic trading day[/h]

 

[80quercus]

You have a pretty good handle on investing. While the worst of the market is probably not here yet, the money on the upturn is usually made over the course of a few days which can never be predicted. Remember that the market anticipates good news. So even though we know a lot of people will die, the market pretty much knows that already and waiting for a stimulus package to soar. There is disagreement on the package but it will pass so it's time to start putting money into stocks as the market is selling at a 30+% discount now. It might take two years to get it back but you'll get it back in spades as opposed to going with the herd and getting back in too late. I survived the dot.com crash and the great recession with a 75% mutual fund stock portfolio and by doubling down on stock funds and then rebalancing when stocks got over valued like...up until two months ago. Whatever you do don't sell stocks and buy low fee mutual funds.

 

[maxwelhse]

You have a pretty good handle on investing. While the worst of the market is probably not here yet, the money on the upturn is usually made over the course of a few days which can never be predicted. Remember that the market anticipates good news. So even though we know a lot of people will die, the market pretty much knows that already and waiting for a stimulus package to soar. There is disagreement on the package but it will pass so it's time to start putting money into stocks as the market is selling at a 30+% discount now. It might take two years to get it back but you'll get it back in spades as opposed to going with the herd and getting back in too late. I survived the dot.com crash and the great recession with a 75% mutual fund stock portfolio and by doubling down on stock funds and then rebalancing when stocks got over valued like...up until two months ago. Whatever you do don't sell stocks and buy low fee mutual funds.

If you're talking to me specifically (I know we brushed paths on this topic in a different thread), I think you're being a bit kind by saying I've got a handle on it! My portfolio looks like someone went on a coke binge while I wasn't watching, 'cus that's kinda what happened.

The problem I've got is I had too much faith that the bubble wasn't this big, and I don't believe it was. I expected a 10% off sale at some point and was willing to take my chances and double down when it happened (and I did... then it went another 20% off and I'm out of dry powder). I shouldn't have. And you were correct that my bond ETF is advertised as a high yield. I'm not sure what part of their holdings would be considered junk bonds, but they're heavy into Netflix, Sprint, Dish, ICahn, etc. It's a corporate bond fund, so, I guess it makes some sense that it's diving, but I would have hoped the guys I pay to manage the money would have actually managed it. It's HYDB if you're curious. I'll be looking to move my holdings into something more stable once it recovers. All I was really trying to do was beat inflation with the bond fund.

As far as today... Things are looking up. I won't claim to be some amazing visionary of stock trading, but it looks like my bet on Bitcoin coming up was a good one. It's up about 30% from the basement and has turned full green in my portfolio from where I bought a day or two off of the bottom. If it follows it's typical behavior, a 30%+ gain wouldn't at all be unusual.

To my shock, CCL is up another 15% today too and I'm about to go green on that as well. I thought for sure that was a long-term hold, but I might be able to flip a buck or two on it with the stimulus joy flooding in if we get another few days of this. I wouldn't mind being able to take that money and run...

Looks like the market is on a rally today, so all of the gains are probably all temporary, but we'll see!

 

[AtTheMurph]

I have a question for the INGO Experts[SUP]TM[/SUP].

Do y'all think the market has bottomed out yet? I'm thinking about putting some of my cash into mutual funds in anticipation of a V-shaped recovery, depending on how thing go over the next week or so. I am planning to buy and hold, not really trying to make a quick buck timing the ups and downs. Just looking for some other opinions before I buy.

I think it has not bottomed yet and isn't even close.

In 2008 the market bottomed something like 6 months or a year after the bailouts, TARPs, TALFS, etc. This time that stuff hasn't even really started yet.

A friend who is a big time money manager (100s of billions - think CNBC guest) said the other day "Bottom fishing is the most expensive sport in the world."

 

[AtTheMurph]

Have a safety fund. That is typically 6 mos worth of your expenses. If you have more, sit on it awhile longer. There isn't any fact base worth a dang that you can make adequate projections of what will happen over the next 2 years.

If you have debt, consider paying it down with your excess funds. Credit cards. Car loans. Student debt. etc.

Why would anyone pay down debt right now? Plenty of lenders are giving forbearance agreements. Yesterday I saw an ad from Ford that said they are giving people deals and a customer of mine said he saw the ad, called them and they told him he didn't have to pay anything for 3 months. Just resume his payments on July 1 and add 3 payments onto the back of the loan.

If the Fed prints like crazy (a given) and the government starts handing out checks and trillions more, perhaps that inflation everyone has been looking for will start to show up in prices.

And there is nothing better than repaying debt with inflated currency. In fact many people became extremely wealthy borrowing to buy assets in Weimar Germany. Buy something that is always going to be worth something and pay it back with wheel barrel money.

 

[maxwelhse]

I think it has not bottomed yet and isn't even close.

In 2008 the market bottomed something like 6 months or a year after the bailouts, TARPs, TALFS, etc. This time that stuff hasn't even really started yet.

A friend who is a big time money manager (100s of billions - think CNBC guest) said the other day "Bottom fishing is the most expensive sport in the world."

Our slope of losses is much more severe this time though too and the recovery charts generally show that the sharper the decline, the more rapid the recovery. We also had Obama doing virtually everything he could to delay the recovery as long as possible too. I don't see Trump forcing the biggest tax increase on the American worker, ever, 12 months from now like Obama did.

The truth is that we've never seen a market like this before and that all predictions are pretty much out the window. If I weren't already on the market, I wouldn't get in right now in any meaningful way. Might be a good opportunity to scalp some cash on small flips for ammo money, but I wouldn't dump thousands in, IMHO.

 

[Dead Duck]

I haven't looked up anything yet but...
How are the GOLD and SILVER prices? Like in to buy actual, physical metal in my hand shiny.

 

[80quercus]

Don't underestimate yourself. You are right that this rally is temporary as volatility is here to stay for a few months. But you need to ignore it and consider a longer term horizon. Don't pay people to mange your money. They are no smarter than the random market over time. The market always reverts to the mean! I would avoid bitcoin and gold like the plague. Quality stocks and the time value of money over the long term are the true gold mine in life. That and quality firearms.

 

[maxwelhse]

I haven't looked up anything yet but...
How are the GOLD and SILVER prices? Like in to buy actual, physical metal in my hand shiny.

To the surprise of everyone, they've dropped (usually they respond opposite of Wall Street), but good luck find anyone to sell you any at that price. Some guys have gotten deals, but i imagine those are getting fewer and further between since I think everyone expects metals to rise pretty sharply pretty soon.

On the plus side, it appears that my silver Eagles are increasing in value nicely since the mints are shutdown. I'm up about 30% on what I bought 18 months ago and about 10% on what I bought just before Christmas.

 

[maxwelhse]

Don't underestimate yourself. You are right that this rally is temporary as volatility is here to stay for a few months. But you need to ignore it and consider a longer term horizon. Don't pay people to mange your money. They are no smarter than the random market over time. The market always reverts to the mean! I would avoid bitcoin and gold like the plague. Quality stocks and the time value of money over the long term are the true gold mine in life. That and quality firearms.

When I say I'm paying people to manage my money, I'm talking about the ETF expense ratio (and HYDB ain't cheap for that matter). No real way around that unless I want to buy individual stocks and bonds with 100% of my funds, which seems pretty risky.

I dabble in a Bitcoin ETF as a flip opportunity. I don't buy it to hold and I've made good money there riding the volatility several times now.

My portfolio is a mix of what should be good, long term holdings, and much less more day trader style penny flips. Most of my holdings are things I plan to ride for awhile. I just post the wins on the day trades here for fun if other guys might want to try to turn $100 into $110 just playing around with gambles. I'm not at all suggesting anyone dump all of their cash into Bitcoin and just wait for their Lambo money to show up.

Now... Dumping some money into DIS at $85? I feel like that was reasonably decent investment advice... or as close as anyone is ever going to get from a random stranger on the internet... on a gun forum!

 

[smokingman]

To the surprise of everyone, they've dropped (usually they respond opposite of Wall Street), but good luck find anyone to sell you any at that price. Some guys have gotten deals, but i imagine those are getting fewer and further between since I think everyone expects metals to rise pretty sharply pretty soon.

On the plus side, it appears that my silver Eagles are increasing in value nicely since the mints are shutdown. I'm up about 30% on what I bought 18 months ago and about 10% on what I bought just before Christmas.

Both gold and silver will likely go up. Those who are short 3/31/2020 when contracts end will need the physical to back their contracts on the CME,unless rules are changed in huge ways. Some of those long shorts(like JPM) have the physical,but I do not think many will.

 

[maxwelhse]

Both gold and silver will likely go up. Those who are short 3/31/2020 when contracts end will need the physical to back their contracts on the CME,unless rules are changed in huge ways. Some of those long shorts(like JPM) have the physical,but I do not think many will.

I agree, which is why I think DD is dead in the water for trying to snag good deals at physical metal brokers right now. I wouldn't sell a gram of my silver right now.

 

[80quercus]

Yes we all need to pay the expense ratios but they they are generally cheap on ETF's. Anything less than 0.5 % is considered good with some index funds much lower. You are more aggressive than I as an investor but it sounds like you have a system. I keep annual records to make sure I'm not biasing my results with my innate hubris compared to established benchmarks.

 

[Expat]

To go back to his question, if I want to buy some silver or gold now. Where, how? Any good online places?
And when you see a price listed as the official spot price, is that what you should be paying, or is there usually some mark up, how much?

 

[Alpo]

Why would anyone pay down debt right now? Plenty of lenders are giving forbearance agreements. Yesterday I saw an ad from Ford that said they are giving people deals and a customer of mine said he saw the ad, called them and they told him he didn't have to pay anything for 3 months. Just resume his payments on July 1 and add 3 payments onto the back of the loan.

If the Fed prints like crazy (a given) and the government starts handing out checks and trillions more, perhaps that inflation everyone has been looking for will start to show up in prices.

And there is nothing better than repaying debt with inflated currency. In fact many people became extremely wealthy borrowing to buy assets in Weimar Germany. Buy something that is always going to be worth something and pay it back with wheel barrel money.

Any interest obligation that will continue to be due is one that would be worth considering eliminating. Forbearance is a deferral in cash flow, probably not in interest accrual. For someone just entering investing, I'd give the same advice. A guaranteed rate of return right now.

Yes, there is money that can be made in the market right now by small time players as they ride the wave of fund reinvestment. Anyone can win a $2 bet in a fixed horse race if they bet with the fixers. But, you have to know the fixer to be sure.

 

[maxwelhse]

To go back to his question, if I want to buy some silver or gold now. Where, how? Any good online places?
And when you see a price listed as the official spot price, is that what you should be paying, or is there usually some mark up, how much?

I feel like we talked about this before?

Coin shops and pawn shops for local purchase (I think you're in my area... there are a few around). Online: SD Bullion, Provident Metals (I buy from them), a few others. If you're buying online you'll pay more for using a credit card vs. mailing a check or a wire transfer. Might be true at physical stores too depending on which one you go to.

You won't be paying spot no matter what. There will be mark up of varying rates depending on what quality of investment you're buying and that mark up will vary day-to-day. Certain bars are minted by more valuable places than others. Same with coins. If you're just straight up asking what I think you should do, it's buy US Silver Eagle coins. I'm not sure that I'd do it right now as Eagles are holding (in fact, gaining) value nicely, but that's what I wanted to happen so that's why I've been buying Eagles. Among silver investments, they appear to be near the top of the pile as far as quality (and I will say, they are beautifully minted). I've been buying them as Christmas gifts for a couple of years now and I've been getting some extras for myself when I do, so, the fact that they're nice to look at is part of my bias. As an investment, you may be better off with actual silver bars from whatever premium smelter, but I'm not in that market so I don't know. Again, I have coins.

So... Precious metals investing is exactly like any other investment, including guns. It's a huge market with lots of variables and there's no one-size-fits-all answer. When I got started, I read a bunch of the precious metals forums and decided Eagles were for me and I decided the price being offered was a good deal at the time for my budget. That's also the nice thing about Eagles. Being that they're basically around $20/ea, you can buy just a few, or you can buy pounds of them if you want. That problem is why I'm not in gold. Just too expensive in general for me.

As for price shopping, it's just like anything else online. Check all the vendors and go with the cheap guy. When I've always checked, it's been Provident. But that's probably just luck of the draw.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Dow gained the most in one day since 1933 today. Still just a drop in the bucket, and still a result of general volatility.

 

[maxwelhse]

Yes we all need to pay the expense ratios but they they are generally cheap on ETF's. Anything less than 0.5 % is considered good with some index funds much lower. You are more aggressive than I as an investor but it sounds like you have a system. I keep annual records to make sure I'm not biasing my results with my innate hubris compared to established benchmarks.

Well... It's a long story, but the punch line is that I turned 40 with no retirement and almost no savings, so it was get aggressive or die at work. If the market takes all of my money, I die at work all the same. I also think maybe I'm making it sound like I'm more aggressive than I am. 2/3 of my holdings are in things that should have been steady, slow, growth. About 1/6 are stuff where I'm assuming a good bit of risk, but not insane IMO (I don't consider Boeing insane, but risky for sure), and the last 1/6 I pretty much gamble on things like Bitcoin, CCL's falling knife at the moment, and penny pharmas, though not the entire 1/6 in one thing at the same time.

My record keeping is for sure too slack. Fidelity doesn't do a very good job of it either, IMO. I absolutely need to step my game up there. I don't track dividend growth vs. market gain/loss very accurately at all, proving I'm still very much a newb.