Russia vs. Ukraine Part 2

[AndreusMaximus]

I've been wondering about something that I don't fully understand; why haven't we seen Russia launch a full-scale bombing campaign?

When everything first broke out I really thought that if it wasn't over in a month, Russia was going to start leveling Ukrainian cities with conventional bombs, WW2-style. I don't honestly know that much about what equipment Russia has, but I had imagined that they would still have a sizable number of older bombers on hand, that they wouldn't be afraid to throw at Ukraine in large numbers. I imagine a Cold War era bomber probably costs less than a single modern missile that could bring it down, and even with Ukraine being provided with anti-air weapons by multiple other countries, I had imagined Putin would be happy to just send waves of older bombers, knowing that the missile used to shoot them down probably cost more than the bomber does.

But it just seems like this isn't happening. Really, while I don't wish to downplay the horror of any civilian deaths, it seems like everything we've seen so far, thanks be to God, has been fairly tame compared to what I feared at the outset. A missile here, an artillery shell there, seems to be the extent of civilian casualties, where I would have expected at this point in the war to see Kyiv, and/or other strategically significant or populous cities, getting bombed into oblivion.

Does Ukraine seriously have enough capability with the equipment we've given them to deter such a tactic? Or does Russia just not have nearly the number of serviceable aircraft that I imagined? Or is Putin afraid that causing too many civilian deaths will cause other countries to get involved further? Or is it just that the gloves really haven't come off yet?

 

[DragonGunner]

I've been wondering about something that I don't fully understand; why haven't we seen Russia launch a full-scale bombing campaign?

When everything first broke out I really thought that if it wasn't over in a month, Russia was going to start leveling Ukrainian cities with conventional bombs, WW2-style. I don't honestly know that much about what equipment Russia has, but I had imagined that they would still have a sizable number of older bombers on hand, that they wouldn't be afraid to throw at Ukraine in large numbers. I imagine a Cold War era bomber probably costs less than a single modern missile that could bring it down, and even with Ukraine being provided with anti-air weapons by multiple other countries, I had imagined Putin would be happy to just send waves of older bombers, knowing that the missile used to shoot them down probably cost more than the bomber does.

But it just seems like this isn't happening. Really, while I don't wish to downplay the horror of any civilian deaths, it seems like everything we've seen so far, thanks be to God, has been fairly tame compared to what I feared at the outset. A missile here, an artillery shell there, seems to be the extent of civilian casualties, where I would have expected at this point in the war to see Kyiv, and/or other strategically significant or populous cities, getting bombed into oblivion.

Does Ukraine seriously have enough capability with the equipment we've given them to deter such a tactic? Or does Russia just not have nearly the number of serviceable aircraft that I imagined? Or is Putin afraid that causing too many civilian deaths will cause other countries to get involved further? Or is it just that the gloves really haven't come off yet?

Russia military sucks. But no one was going to tell Putin that. They can’t send bombers or much aircraft as Trump sent thousands of stingers to take down that threat. Russia military soon ran out of old stock and a much of their new stuff like tanks got captured by Ukraine. Ukraine is fixing all that stuff up now. The simple fact is Putin thought this was a cake walk, thought Ukraine would give up. Putin only great military is sending bodies to die. Half the wars Russia fights they start off badly and suck at it. Takes several months for them to figure out what’s going on, then it’s game on. That’s coming as I said in a previous post. Russia main weapon will be bodies. They want to overwhelm Ukraine with dead Russian bodies, that’s what they are counting on.

 

[rosejm]

They don't have them. Jet powered aircraft are really expensive to maintain, w/ or w/o flight hours. Consequently, if they're not being actively used they fall into disrepair quickly.

And frankly, I was shocked at the limited numbers of "current" bomber aircraft Russia had including their mainline nuclear capable strategic bombers.
(approx)
60 - Tu-22 (Backfire) supersonic sweep-wing bomber - old and not very well built originally, limited payload capacity
60 - Tu-95 (Bear) 4-engine turboprop (nuclear capable) - very old and slow
15 - Tu-160 (Blackjack) supersonic sweep-wing, similar to B-1 (nuclear capable) - newish but expensive and rare

They're not going to risk the Tu-160's to operational losses, and neither of the other two are very well suited to the task either by payload or AA avoidance. I think combined with the international outrage that would come with unrestricted bombing of civilian centers there's just not enough benefit for the associated costs. Even if they were strictly targeting military centers, it's too risky.

 

[bobzilla]

Which ones? the ones in port with poor maintenance an untrained crews, or the ones on the bottom of the black sea because of poor maintenance and poorly trained crews.

Bring them. Then they can be in the bottom of the Atlantic because of poor maintenance and poorly trained crews.

 

[DragonGunner]

A Peter Zaihan says right now the Russian propaganda is that the Ukraine fighters are “gay demons.” They had to come up with an answer to the Russian people why they they weren’t winning and literally came up that. He also mentioned that Putin has purged so well as there is and will be no other generation to become leaders. Only about 130 old KGB left that all think the same. The same as Putin so you never going to get a different outlook, those people already been purged. There is only one guy who is tough enough to take out Putin and take over. But he won’t do it because the other 129 hate his guts and will kill him if he does. I just wonder when Russia collapses if a trillion Chinese just don’t invade and take over Russia? They already know if they get Taiwan it does nothing for them at all…..maybe a weak and broken Russia might look good to them again. ?

 

[BugI02]

They don't have them. Jet powered aircraft are really expensive to maintain, w/ or w/o flight hours. Consequently, if they're not being actively used they fall into disrepair quickly.

And frankly, I was shocked at the limited numbers of "current" bomber aircraft Russia had including their mainline nuclear capable strategic bombers.
(approx)
60 - Tu-22 (Backfire) supersonic sweep-wing bomber - old and not very well built originally, limited payload capacity
60 - Tu-95 (Bear) 4-engine turboprop (nuclear capable) - very old and slow
15 - Tu-160 (Blackjack) supersonic sweep-wing, similar to B-1 (nuclear capable) - newish but expensive and rare

They're not going to risk the Tu-160's to operational losses, and neither of the other two are very well suited to the task either by payload or AA avoidance. I think combined with the international outrage that would come with unrestricted bombing of civilian centers there's just not enough benefit for the associated costs. Even if they were strictly targeting military centers, it's too risky.

I remember an article in the last couple of years saying their pilot flight hours were low and they were only capable of operating two ship flights in Syria because of lack of proper command and control as well as not having practiced 4 ship flights or more

I'm sure the same or worse is true of the operations in Ukraine and was reading today they are pulling assets out of Syria to send to Ukraine and Assad is beginning to sweat

 

[BugI02]

There is only one guy who is tough enough to take out Putin and take over.

@BigRed?

 

[DragonGunner]

@BigRed?

He’s on that secret mission as we speak. Hope to hear details if he makes it back someday!

 

[DoggyDaddy]

He’s on that secret mission as we speak. Hope to hear details if he makes it back someday!

You know, I never put 2 and 2 together. His "banning" from INGO was the perfect cover.

 

[BugI02]

I was kinda' hoping we could get him to do Klaus as a warm-up

 

[BigMoose]

I've been wondering about something that I don't fully understand; why haven't we seen Russia launch a full-scale bombing campaign?

When everything first broke out I really thought that if it wasn't over in a month, Russia was going to start leveling Ukrainian cities with conventional bombs, WW2-style. I don't honestly know that much about what equipment Russia has, but I had imagined that they would still have a sizable number of older bombers on hand, that they wouldn't be afraid to throw at Ukraine in large numbers. I imagine a Cold War era bomber probably costs less than a single modern missile that could bring it down, and even with Ukraine being provided with anti-air weapons by multiple other countries, I had imagined Putin would be happy to just send waves of older bombers, knowing that the missile used to shoot them down probably cost more than the bomber does.

But it just seems like this isn't happening. Really, while I don't wish to downplay the horror of any civilian deaths, it seems like everything we've seen so far, thanks be to God, has been fairly tame compared to what I feared at the outset. A missile here, an artillery shell there, seems to be the extent of civilian casualties, where I would have expected at this point in the war to see Kyiv, and/or other strategically significant or populous cities, getting bombed into oblivion.

Does Ukraine seriously have enough capability with the equipment we've given them to deter such a tactic? Or does Russia just not have nearly the number of serviceable aircraft that I imagined? Or is Putin afraid that causing too many civilian deaths will cause other countries to get involved further? Or is it just that the gloves really haven't come off yet?

I made a long post about the Russian Strategic bombing force, when they were bombing Azov holdouts.

It is less about Ukrainian capabilities, and more dating back to how the Soviet Doctrine was for their use.

The Soviets, set up their post 1970s bombing force as a missile heavy force. They simply were not set up even in the Soviet heyday for dumb bombing raids. They were to streak out with big missiles. Their primary focus was to go after the US carrier fleet with an unholy vengeance with missles, but they did have secondary targets in Europe and Asia.

Let go over each of the big three Soviet bombers.

The TU-22M3 of the three is the only one set up for dumb bombs, and only a small portion of the fleet is set up. None of the dumb bomb equipment was even made for the TU-22M3, it is left over surplus racks from TU-16/TU-22 that was kept for possible export contracts. These racks impose serious limitations on the T-22M3 airframe. And can't even carry more then a small western fighter can anyway. This stuff was all unmothballed during the Syrian conflict.

Dumb Bombs for Dumb Things: VKS reactivates 70-Year-Old FAB-3000M-46 bombs not suitable for Fast Jets to arm its Tupolev Tu-22M3 Supersonic Bombers to strike Ukraine - The Aviation Geek Club

VKS reactivates 70-Year-Old FAB-3000M-46 bombs not suitable for fast jets to arm its Tupolev Tu-22M3 Supersonic bombers to strike Ukraine

theaviationgeekclub.com

The TU-160 never had, and never will have dumb bomb capability. Its a missile carrier only.

The Tu-95MS version is the same way, only its restricted to standoff cruise missiles only. (It is a Turboprop, not a jet)

So of the big three, Russia only has a small handful of TU-22M3 set up for dumb bombs.

There are fighter sized aircraft, but even then, most of them are set up for Missles or Rockets.

Soviet/Russian doctrine abandoned the free fall bomb in about 1970, They haven't even made a new dumb bomb since 1955 for the strategic bombing force.

The Russians simply are not capable of a Rolling Thunder type carpet bombing campaign like the US is. We have B-52, B-1, and B-2s that are quite capable of being loaded full of cheap dumb bombs, and as we have seen, are quite capable of ultra heavy conventional dumb bomb campaigns. The Russians have to use massive amounts of cruise missiles to atempt even the meager amount we have seen so far.

Even then, as the poster above pointed out, they are not risking the TU-160/TU-95MS. The missiles are often launched at maximum range, and the missle motors have been observed running out of fuel and simply gliding in short of whatever they were shooting at.

 

[BigMoose]

On the other hand, quality Russian battlefield vehicle.....only the best for the Russian Army.

 

[360willys]

I think it's funny Russia is acting like something bad will happen if we supply something. what are they going to do they can't stop Ukraine let alone handle NATO. the only thing they could do is nukes and kill everyone including themselves.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

 

[DragonGunner]

On the other hand, quality Russian battlefield vehicle.....only the best for the Russian Army.

About the only thing they can do to move munitions now. Rail system being bombed so can’t use that. When the big attack happens I wonder if Ukraine (US) just attacks behind lines and cut all supplies coming in. Then it’s certain death.

 

[74 or more]

Alexander is well informed ( watch at 1.25 speed)
talkes of the Tuberculosis outbreak and other thinks
After 4 years of Russia Collusion and $20. Million do you believe Western Media,,MSM ? Inform your self.

 

[1DOWN4UP]

The EU sanctions run out in 2 weeks. The EU economy's are trashed.The EU people are cold and hungry. The American people are fed up with the endless begging paychecks going to the tiny dancer. Putin has asked for peace talks and Zskyy said no with Blinkens hand up his butt. With the Republicans cutting the checks now,I think things will be quite different in a month and Epstein didn't kill himself.

 

[74 or more]

 

[SEIndSAM]

 

[DragonGunner]

Seen where Russian missile hit apartment building killing at least 30 civilians. At least 250,000 Ukraine civilians have been killed and the number could be in millions as we have no clue on stats behind the lines. However the towns liberated have showed mass murder by the Russians.

 

[smokingman]

Seen where Russian missile hit apartment building killing at least 30 civilians. At least 250,000 Ukraine civilians have been killed and the number could be in millions as we have no clue on stats behind the lines. However the towns liberated have showed mass murder by the Russians.

Not really sure it was a Russian missile to be honest. Given the fact Oleksiy Arestovych(in the top 3 for Zelisnki's "cabinet" and main advisor)stated it was Ukrainian countermeasures that hit the building(said this on live TV and again on his own Youtube channel). Of course that did not go over well with the public or zelenski.

He was called a traitor. Now he has resigned(likely to never be seen again).

Zelensky adviser resigns after blaming Ukraine for Dnipro apartment bombing

An adviser to the office of Ukrainian President Voldoymyr Zelensky submitted his resignation Tuesday following public backlash to his remarks suggesting a Russian missile attack that killed 44…

thehill.com

Where did you get the 250,000 civilian casualties number?
As of January 17,2023 the official number from the Ukrainian government is just over 9000 total per Ukrainian presidential aide Andriy Yermak at Davos for WEF(yes today*side note he was there with First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska,who spoke right after he did).

Russia’s war in Ukraine has killed ‘more than 9,000 civilians’

Presidential aide announces grim toll at the WEF in Davos as Ukraine’s first lady appeals for support.

www.aljazeera.com