Russia vs. Ukraine Part 2

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    Libertarian01

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    It's not normally my way but I think it would be funny if we just gave the Ukrainian's money to pay Russian soldiers to surrender and be relocated elsewhere, somewhere warm, for about five (5) years.

    Think about it: we could help set up a payment plan of about $50,000 for each Russian to surrender. This would cost about $25 Billion to pay off 500,000 Russians. We could pay more for rank and skills. So a basic foot soldier would get maybe $30k, a sergeant $35k, a tank driver $33k, and so on. Talk about bang for buck.

    Russia would be deeply concerned about sending ANY troops into Ukraine. They already have low morale and high alcoholism rates. Combine that with the choice of either eating military rations in Ukraine while getting shot at OR sitting on a beaching in the Med slamming Vodka oogling babes in bikinis. And with draftees...? Oh, my!

    I do believe a large chunk of the Russian military would up and float away like a fart in the wind.

    Just a thought...

    Regards,

    Doug
     

    BigRed

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    It's not normally my way but I think it would be funny if we just gave the Ukrainian's money to pay Russian soldiers to surrender and be relocated elsewhere, somewhere warm, for about five (5) years.

    Think about it: we could help set up a payment plan of about $50,000 for each Russian to surrender. This would cost about $25 Billion to pay off 500,000 Russians. We could pay more for rank and skills. So a basic foot soldier would get maybe $30k, a sergeant $35k, a tank driver $33k, and so on. Talk about bang for buck.

    Russia would be deeply concerned about sending ANY troops into Ukraine. They already have low morale and high alcoholism rates. Combine that with the choice of either eating military rations in Ukraine while getting shot at OR sitting on a beaching in the Med slamming Vodka oogling babes in bikinis. And with draftees...? Oh, my!

    I do believe a large chunk of the Russian military would up and float away like a fart in the wind.

    Just a thought...

    Regards,

    Doug

    It's been working that way on the Southern border.
     
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    tsm

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    It's not normally my way but I think it would be funny if we just gave the Ukrainian's money to pay Russian soldiers to surrender and be relocated elsewhere, somewhere warm, for about five (5) years.

    Think about it: we could help set up a payment plan of about $50,000 for each Russian to surrender. This would cost about $25 Billion to pay off 500,000 Russians. We could pay more for rank and skills. So a basic foot soldier would get maybe $30k, a sergeant $35k, a tank driver $33k, and so on. Talk about bang for buck.

    Russia would be deeply concerned about sending ANY troops into Ukraine. They already have low morale and high alcoholism rates. Combine that with the choice of either eating military rations in Ukraine while getting shot at OR sitting on a beaching in the Med slamming Vodka oogling babes in bikinis. And with draftees...? Oh, my!

    I do believe a large chunk of the Russian military would up and float away like a fart in the wind.

    Just a thought...

    Regards,

    Doug
    Unlikely to work if they had any family remaining in Russia that they cared about. Orphans, maybe.
     

    Libertarian01

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    If Ukraine could blow up the oil pipeline from Russia to China this would cause massive problems for Russia and China. China may well then get off the fence as their national security is threatened and push Russia to withdraw.

    All it would take is a lone saboteur with a kilo or two of explosives and good papers. As many Ukrainians are already fluent in Russian the language barrier wouldn't be a problem.

    Same thing with blowing up a pipeline or two to the west. That infrastructure is tremendously vulnerable. My grandfather used to walk the pipelines for Standard Oil looking for leaks. It is just too much to protect.

    Regards,

    Doug
     

    BugI02

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    No, Act; IMO he's right. What will crush economies is the collapse of demand as middle class people are forced to devote more and more of their income to just basic needs like food and energy

    The people on the dole may suffer, but it won't cost them any more of their income because those needs are heavily subsidized by the government. It will be a redistribution of poverty upward

    As with most expenses, the wealthy will not feel a rise in energy or food prices much as those expenses are a small part of their outlays. The only thing that will shake the confidence of the wealthy is if those commodities are not available at any price, for instance water out west; but by the time that happens everyone else will be well and truly ****ed
     

    Keith_Indy

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    Zeihan is back from his vacation... some interesting observations.

    Some of those ammo dump explosions might be old ammo being mishandled and cooking off the dump.

    The Russians may be hitting high value targets, like rail depots, but they aren't following up with ground troops.

     

    FNparabellum

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    Time for part 2

    Part 1 below.

    Maybe they could use all that abandoned gear we left in the middle east. Its a shame how that went down.
     

    Leadeye

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    I heard a Ukranian official use the term "battle of shells" on the radio the other day which made me shudder. Ukraine looks like it's becoming the western world's Verdun. Maybe Putin is taking a chapter from Erich Von Falkenhayn's plan.
     

    nra4ever

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    Russia isn't in a hurry to end this. They want winter to hit so they can really cripple the EU. The longer it goes the better its going for Russia.

    This in from today's assault. Of course there is always an least 3 sides to a story.

    Russia is saying the landing offensive at the power station was supposed to be some kind of "icing on the cake" for the Kherson "offensive." Russians are accusing NATO of planning the whole affair and state that they were monitoring NATO/Ukrainian comms in the buildup to the event. The entire amphibious assault was planned well in advance, and the Ukrainian elite forces trained for months. Today the Ukrainians attempted a quick strike amphibious assault across the Dnieper with 2 barges, 30 boats, and about 100 commandos. The Russian were waiting and had already prepared an ambush and basically killed every Ukrainian to the last man. Sixty men were cut down immediately on the shore of the river. The rest tried to retreat but ended up being killed in the river and are now feeding the catfish and crayfish of the Dnieper.
    All in all, a totally insane disaster for the NATO/Ukrainians
     

    Ark

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    Russia has now switched off Nordstream completely. Timeline indefinite. G7 claiming to have an agreement on oil price caps.

    Parabolic highs incoming Monday.
     

    DragonGunner

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    Russia thought this would be over in weeks. They know its now years and are going to just hammer away. The Ukraine military is divided. One half want to attack and throw down with them every chance (which they are doing) and the other half wants to hold back and calculate battles because they only have so many men, and when they are dead thats it. Russia is throwing another 136,000 into the mix, they got plenty they can draft as needed. At this point Ukraine will lose....and I say if your going out that way make a plan to attack Moscow with everything you got and hope you kill Putin and higher ups. The hope is Russians will turn on the leaders and a new leader will take over with a promise of peace and withdrawal. I don't see how Ukraine wins unless other counties send men to keep the fight going. Putin is not going to withdraw no matter what now.
     

    Ark

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    Russia thought this would be over in weeks. They know its now years and are going to just hammer away. The Ukraine military is divided. One half want to attack and throw down with them every chance (which they are doing) and the other half wants to hold back and calculate battles because they only have so many men, and when they are dead thats it. Russia is throwing another 136,000 into the mix, they got plenty they can draft as needed. At this point Ukraine will lose....and I say if your going out that way make a plan to attack Moscow with everything you got and hope you kill Putin and higher ups. The hope is Russians will turn on the leaders and a new leader will take over with a promise of peace and withdrawal. I don't see how Ukraine wins unless other counties send men to keep the fight going. Putin is not going to withdraw no matter what now.
    This winter is going to wreck Europe's resolve. A large turnover in Congress may cut Ukraine off. Russia is continuing to make bank on high oil and gas prices. Ukrainian bodies and Western cash will run out long before Russia runs out of people and stuff.

    That peace deal that BoJo shut down is starting to look pretty good.
     
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