Russia vs. Ukraine Part 2

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    Keith_Indy

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    In an interview with RFE/RL's Georgian Service, Gleb Pavlovsky said Putin's decision to invade Ukraine on February 24 made "no political sense."

    "This is all Putin's own personal decision. Nobody other than Putin would have made it, not even Ramzan Kadyrov, had he had a say in it," Pavlovsky said, referring to the authoritarian ruler of the Russian republic of Chechnya. "Nobody, including myself, realized just how maniacally obsessed he must have been with Ukraine. We underestimated the extent of decay of the Russian government."



    Key Takeaways

    • The withdrawal of Russian forces from around Kyiv is nearing completion.
    • Russia has not yet introduced forces withdrawn from western Ukraine into the fight in the east.
    • Ukrainian forces continued to put up organized resistance in parts of Mariupol.
    • Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations on the Izyum-Slovyansk axis.

    DraftUkraineCoTApril5%2C2022.png
     
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    Hawkeye

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    Just a comment here. The Russian forces appear to be withdrawing in fairly good order and/or the Ukraine forces are not rapidly pursuing. I kind of expected to hear of some encirclements of Russian troops and that is not apparent from either the maps or the news reports. (Unless I've missed it.)
     

    Keith_Indy

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    Interesting take on China...


    And in the category of "learn something new everyday"

    China was also dismayed at the degree of European military support for the Ukrainians, despite Russian threats of nuclear retaliation. That did not dissuade the Europeans or Americans, just as it had not worked on China during their 1969 border war between Russia and China. In 1969 China had recently tested its first nuclear weapon but did not have a nuclear retaliation capability. Russia approached the Americans about joining in a nuclear attack on China. The Americans refused and criticized the Russian threats to use nukes. When China found out about that, there was a warming in the long-frosty relations with the Americans which soon (1972) led to the U.S. recognizing the Chinese communist government.

    Ukraine, which has done a lot of business with China over the last decade, is aware that China could order Russia to halt their invasion and deal with the aftermath via negotiations. It suits China to allow Russia to weaken itself further and become more dependent on China. This is their long-range strategy to defeat Russia and retrieve the Pacific coast territory lost to the Russian monarchy centuries ago. For the moment China goes along with the Russian version of the war, in which Russia is simply defending itself from NATO aggression. China intends to be the only winner in this war and so far, that is happening.
     
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    Keith_Indy

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    Just a comment here. The Russian forces appear to be withdrawing in fairly good order and/or the Ukraine forces are not rapidly pursuing. I kind of expected to hear of some encirclements of Russian troops and that is not apparent from either the maps or the news reports. (Unless I've missed it.)

    This could be a reason for that... if true (*as if we need to say that constantly about the "news")

     

    Keith_Indy

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    Background history of Russia and it's relevance in the Ukraine invasion... part of the video is from before the invasion

    short version: Russia is in serious decline... this could be Russia's last war. Globally, all 3 sources of fertilizer are in jeopardy, the technical term for this, "the world is F'ed"

     
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    Keith_Indy

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    Uh, A. see avatar
    B. I thought you were concerned about people finding the current thread or something. Apparently I did miss the point?

    Well, I can see the usefulness of linking the thread from old to new. For instance, I got a notification about a reaction to one of my posts on the old thread. Took a minute to 1, realize it was a closed thread, and 2 find the new thread.
     
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