How long before things go south if the SHTF?

[Magyars]

Apparently, everyone has a different definition of SHTF.
To me, SHTF is as bad as it can get, and that isn't going to be localized; it will be global.
Sure, people will do their best to survive, but in the end, it's you against the world, not just your neighborhood.
There will be millions of people struggling to stay alive, and not just your town or city.
It's delusional to believe anyone can be prepared for what would happen. Millions of people searching for food
and could very likely be you that they intend on hanging over a fire; what's your preparation for that?

Granted, worldwide and millions looking for the basics. But they won't all be in my AO.

 

[spencer rifle]

https://www.indianagunowners.com/threads/a-failure-of-civility.323519/

 

[Kurr]

I have heard many many times, "Civilized Society" is only 9 meals deep.

All it takes is 3 days without food and most people will revert to animals.

 

[cg21]

Apparently, everyone has a different definition of SHTF.
To me, SHTF is as bad as it can get, and that isn't going to be localized; it will be global.
Sure, people will do their best to survive, but in the end, it's you against the world, not just your neighborhood.
There will be millions of people struggling to stay alive, and not just your town or city.
It's delusional to believe anyone can be prepared for what would happen. Millions of people searching for food
and could very likely be you that they intend on hanging over a fire; what's your preparation for that?

Even in your situation there are MILLIONS of variables….. again like I said up post…. people survived for much longer without all the things we are saying will cause “global destruction” people have survived world wars…. Famines…. Civil wars…. Slavery… Great Depression… lawlessness… anarchy…. Communism.. etc etc

I think it is borderline negligent to have no preparations. Because you can’t prepare for everything doesn’t mean you shouldn’t prepare for something …..?

Do you also not keep an extra roll of tp in the bathroom because you know how much you will need lol

 

[Ashton1911]

People survive with a lot less. you can take squirrels, salt them, and end up with somewhat usable food. Most modern preps aren't required for life, but they sure make it more comfortable. Having food and water helps, but a can do attitude and grit makes almost anything possible. I am of a more delicate constitution than my ancestors, and really enjoy my refrigeration. Solar power isn't indispensable, but man do I like it.

 

[smokingman]

People survive with a lot less. you can take squirrels, salt them, and end up with somewhat usable food. Most modern preps aren't required for life, but they sure make it more comfortable. Having food and water helps, but a can do attitude and grit makes almost anything possible. I am of a more delicate constitution than my ancestors, and really enjoy my refrigeration. Solar power isn't indispensable, but man do I like it.

25lb of Iodized salt at Gordons food service is $12.99. If you do not can food(and many who do) usually do not count it among their preps. It would be something that would be very helpful long term shtf. I keep 3 bags. One in use(mostly canning/brine. I cut the corner off and fill a few mason jars for easier use) and the other two are just in case. I go through most of a bag every year.

 

[Cynical]

You arent totally wrong. We ARE in a death spiral.

Notice I said "when something goes boom". It could be a Carrington event, or an EMP, or some other catastrophic failure that makes the grid go down. My scenario was in the event it was obvious that power isnt coming back on any time soon, for ANYWHERE within a tank of gas or more, and its obvious nobody is coming to save you.

Spot on assessment there.

 

[Cynical]

People survive with a lot less. you can take squirrels, salt them, and end up with somewhat usable food. Most modern preps aren't required for life, but they sure make it more comfortable. Having food and water helps, but a can do attitude and grit makes almost anything possible. I am of a more delicate constitution than my ancestors, and really enjoy my refrigeration. Solar power isn't indispensable, but man do I like it.

Yeah, gotta admit I LOVE central air cause I didn’t have it growing up. I didn’t didnt die obviously, I just slept outside in a tent.

 

[jwamplerusa]

I was in Middle School when this happened

A Look Back: Major blackout hits New York City on July 13, 1977

For 25 hours, the darkness led to total chaos, with widespread looting and fires in the streets.

www.google.com

The evening news on this event over a couple of weeks probably initiated my concern over how human beings behave when something bad happens.

In my community if the power went out you helped your neighbors. Next to no one had a generator, but the neighborhood was split on two lines. Roughly half the neighborhood would lose power the other half would have it. There were times very long extension cords were ran to try to keep someone's freezer full of food running.

What struck me about the New York blackout stories were that instead of the neighbors helping each other they preyed upon one another. For me at that age that was a wake-up call.

25 hours without power, one nightfall. Imagine 3 days or a week with decreasing expectations of the restoration of power. My expectations for human behavior is not particularly high. I will hope for the best but be prepared for worse.

 

[BackFromDC]

Why younger Americans are stockpiling supplies ahead of 2024 election: ‘Society unraveling’

Some 39% of Millennials and 40% of Gen Z had spent money on prepping in the past 12 months, compared to 29% of the overall US adult population.

nypost.com

We seem to be getting closer to fever pitch my favorite part of this article wasclose to the end.

Prof. Chad Huddleston, an anthropologist at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, said the surge in prepping is the result of an increased loss of trust in government among younger and more liberal people.
Really? It's the young liberal people's candidate that got into the White House. If they lost trust in the government then that's kinda their own fault...it's the government that they clamored and clapped for.

Garrett, who interviewed hundreds of preppers for his 2020 book “Bunker,” said many less hardline preppers were younger liberals who were shocked by the pandemic and the police brutality protests.
The younger liberals burned cities over a fentanyl addict and screamed for lockdowns, yet acted shocked...my brother in Christ, you didn't just ask for this, you set actions to make it a reality.

“But you’re also seeing an increase in militancy on the left. I’m seeing a lot of liberal preppers buying guns, saying that they waited too long. It’s an unfortunate arms race that I do think we’re going to see escalating as we head into the election, particularly if it’s Trump vs. Biden.”
Leftist and liberals complaining about not having enough guns when they want them...I guess that Gifford Group didn't get you want you wanted huh?

 

[Mij]

People survive with a lot less. you can take squirrels, salt them, and end up with somewhat usable food. Most modern preps aren't required for life, but they sure make it more comfortable. Having food and water helps, but a can do attitude and grit makes almost anything possible. I am of a more delicate constitution than my ancestors, and really enjoy my refrigeration. Solar power isn't indispensable, but man do I like it.

I like a bit o salt sprinkles on my squirrel while browning it in cast iron. Then add some home grown potatoes n carrots n onions. Dump in a can o cream o mushroom soup. Cover with foil, oven at 350 for an hour. Meat, potatoes n gravy.

Limit o squirrels par boiled in BBQ sauce n water. Use the hot bbq water to can. Then can the cuts and put them on the shelf. After a cold winter rabbit/pheasant hunt, come indoors, open a can n pull out the bones. Poor off the water, put the jar n the nuke. Stir with a fork n make BBQ samiches, open a beer n watch Sunday football game.

Thats not preparing, that’s Sunday in upland game season. JMO.

 

[manifest destiny]

So many variable to define a reliable timeline until chaos is reached. But when the snowball does start to roll, it's going to accelerate at a per second per second rate. The best I can do is hold on and trust in the preps I've made. Having said that, I'm not so sure it's gonna be hoardes of roaming baddies that I should be most prepared for. The "authorities" that show up to "help" may well be the greatest threat. You think a Governor is gonna go hungry when he has access to backup comms, armed cops, force multipliers and "law" on his side?

Those up-thread that poo-poo preppers, and prepping in general, seem to think of prepping as an object, can of beans, bucket of bullets, etc. True prepping is more a lifestyle and mindset, imperfect though it may be.

 

[Ashton1911]

How much of prepping a realistic collapse is impossible without being over an hour from a major airport?

 

[BigBoxaJunk]

We’re all prepping and training, but tbh most of us will prob get smoked by some drunk guy named Cletus in a tree with a .270 before we get anywhere. I’m buggin in.

That reminds me of something a prepper guy on Youtube said "You can be a totally trained-up and ready prepper with all the weaponry, and still get shot in the back on your way to the outhouse by some scrawny dude hiding in the bushes with a single-shot .22"

 

[KomboJoe]

That reminds me of something a prepper guy on Youtube said "You can be a totally trained-up and ready prepper with all the weaponry, and still get shot in the back on your way to the outhouse by some scrawny dude hiding in the bushes with a single-shot .22"

And that is why having more people at the same location is key. Depending on the size of the property if you want 24/7 security you need at least 32 for security. Minimum it is 2 support to every 1 security personnel, which means an additional 64 people. Ideally you would want your group to be around 96 people. I don't think any of our groups have that. Mine certainly doesn't.

 

[spencer rifle]

That reminds me of something a prepper guy on Youtube said "You can be a totally trained-up and ready prepper with all the weaponry, and still get shot in the back on your way to the outhouse by some scrawny dude hiding in the bushes with a single-shot .22"

1. Would be spotted by the thermal recon before heading to the head. If that fails:
2. Won't penetrate the body armor.
3. Won't survive the three armed community members accompanying me.

We had it drilled into our heads while training for caving that "You never go caving alone. So you need at least 4 group members. If one gets injured, one can stay with them and two go for help, because you NEVER GO CAVING ALONE." Same with leaving the secure location.

 

[Ashton1911]

1. Would be spotted by the thermal recon before heading to the head. If that fails:
2. Won't penetrate the body armor.
3. Won't survive the three armed community members accompanying me.

1: Most realistic recon is not good enough to keep a perimeter big enough for modern threats.
2: A 22 in the neck/pelvis would kill you just as much as one in the lungs without proper immediate medical care.
3: A .308 can quite reasonably make a first round hit at 500 yards. Suppressed, you would have a very hard time to get a QRF in the right direction fast enough to find the hostile, assuming you even attempt to find the sniper when caring for the wounded in your crew. 100 yards with suppressed 22lr would have the same effect.
Perfect SHTF base would have enough space hidden behind curtain walls to keep 7 dozen of your closest friends and confidants safe. With enough space to keep all your food production and ancillary structures within the safe perimeter.
And this still ignores the drone/biological threats.
Low profile and obscure location might help, but still has to be close enough to maintain before the world goes nuts, and get to when it does.

 

[patience0830]

Some people just don't seem to grasp the reality of what will actually happen in any of these social breakdown events and the human reaction to them.
It doesn't matter how far out one lives, or how much ammo, food, potable water, etc. that they have. They will eventually be found and it taken from them. Just like you want to live, there are others that do also.
Society would never return to what we know it as. Just look around at how it's been altered in a short time.
It's natural instinct to want to survive, but the result isn't going to be worth the effort. The ones that actually survive, will become slaves to the elitists in control. That's the foresight of these people and what they are driving toward.

Optimist. We'll eat you first.

 

[spencer rifle]

1: Most realistic recon is not good enough to keep a perimeter big enough for modern threats.
2: A 22 in the neck/pelvis would kill you just as much as one in the lungs without proper immediate medical care.
3: A .308 can quite reasonably make a first round hit at 500 yards. Suppressed, you would have a very hard time to get a QRF in the right direction fast enough to find the hostile, assuming you even attempt to find the sniper when caring for the wounded in your crew. 100 yards with suppressed 22lr would have the same effect.
Perfect SHTF base would have enough space hidden behind curtain walls to keep 7 dozen of your closest friends and confidants safe. With enough space to keep all your food production and ancillary structures within the safe perimeter.
And this still ignores the drone/biological threats.
Low profile and obscure location might help, but still has to be close enough to maintain before the world goes nuts, and get to when it does.

1. We're talking about a scrawny kid with a .22 in the bushes, not a sniper with a 50BMG in distant cover.
2. Our body armor covers neck and most of pelvis.
3. We won't be using outhouses for quite a while - we have adequate indoor plumbing, septic and water supply in our location. Also poured concrete walls and reinforced concrete roof. Four water sources, etc. You'd be amazed how many of those criteria it meets, but OPSEC.

 

[Ashton1911]

1. We're talking about a scrawny kid with a .22 in the bushes, not a sniper with a 50BMG in distant cover.
2. Our body armor covers neck and most of pelvis.
3. We won't be using outhouses for quite a while - we have adequate indoor plumbing, septic and water supply in our location. Also poured concrete walls and reinforced concrete roof. Four water sources, etc. You'd be amazed how many of those criteria it meets, but OPSEC.

Scrawny kids with a 22 aren't the most terrifying.
If they lived long enough, they might have improvised some sort of muffler for their 22, and a suppressed bolt action 22 would ruin your day at as much as 50 yards, and I don't have experience rooting out snipers, but don't fancy my chances.
My armor doesn't come much above my clavicle, or much lower than my upper intestines. What sort of armor are you taking about?