How long before things go south if the SHTF?

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  • longbow

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    Play along with me.

    Say tomorrow the SHTF nation wide, how long do you think you have before life gets crazy. We are not nuked and it is not a comet strike.

    Several of the books I have recently read the whole country goes mad max in one or two days and even travel from just 200 miles away to get home is almost impossible. I'm not doing a poll because that limits the answers.

    My belief holds that it will take 3 or 4 days for crazy stuff to start and feral human actions. There are alway exceptions to things being crazy from the start, but what do you think?

    To be honest, people did well during Covid and that is part of my thinking that things will not go south immediately.
     

    Cynical

    Sharpshooter
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    I’d say about 3 days. After the grocery stores are empty and there is no gas etc. The friendly people you knew won’t be so friendly when they want you have. The supply chain is about 3 days for groceries and then they run dry. A man that is hungry or scared is unpredictable as to what he is capable of..... just sayin’.
     

    rosejm

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    It's going to be very dependent on your area, how quickly / what kind of infrastructure stops working & how widespread that is.

    For some locales any disruption to the balance of normal life will give rise to opportunists. Starting with the typical theft and depending on response (or lack thereof) escalating quickly.

    We'll have a bit of cushion if food isn't immediately replenished, but if the water stops flowing it's going to get ****** in a hurry. Similar if the electricity/internet goes out. Many just won't know what to do with themselves when the screens stop working. So they'll entertain themselves in some fashion.

    If it's just a regional outage, it'll take a bit longer as well. There will be some hope of rescue keeping a lid on this pot.
    If it's a national interruption or zero communication/information about the cause/solution being disseminated there's none.


    All things considered, it's still a short time frame: generally 4-7 days, but as little as a few hours or as much as 14 days.
     

    GodFearinGunTotin

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    Remember when covid was hitting and the stores ran out of toilet paper in a few days? Or when a snow storm threatens and the stores‘ shelves are emptied in hours? I remember when 9/11 happened and people were in lines at gas stations that afternoon, filling gas cans.

    It would be hours not days.
     

    jwamplerusa

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    It's going to be very dependent on your area, how quickly / what kind of infrastructure stops working & how widespread that is.

    For some locales any disruption to the balance of normal life will give rise to opportunists. Starting with the typical theft and depending on response (or lack thereof) escalating quickly.

    We'll have a bit of cushion if food isn't immediately replenished, but if the water stops flowing it's going to get ****** in a hurry. Similar if the electricity/internet goes out. Many just won't know what to do with themselves when the screens stop working. So they'll entertain themselves in some fashion.

    If it's just a regional outage, it'll take a bit longer as well. There will be some hope of rescue keeping a lid on this pot.
    If it's a national interruption or zero communication/information about the cause/solution being disseminated there's none.


    All things considered, it's still a short time frame: generally 4-7 days, but as little as a few hours or as much as 14 days.
    Mostly this ^^^^ though highly dependent upon population density and the prevalence and function of municipal utilities.

    History tells us the first nightfall in most major Metro areas will result in looting and arson.

    Anywhere clean abundant water is interrupted for more than 72 hours is going to have some breakdown in social order.

    The more rural, or lower density suburbs, will last longer without major unrest with wells and septics able to provide safe water and sanitation.

    You protect you and your family. You try to retain and build mutual assistance networks with your neighbors, maintaining life and security while you attempt to assess recovery potential of "normal".

    My view is beyond week 2, modern America and Americans will be in uncharted territories. We will each attempt to survive as best we can.

    CombatEngineer is likely correct, with the season determining how fast and brutal the descent to a dystopian Mad Max existence occurs.
     
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    dieselrealtor

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    Things that will come into play:

    • Food availability.
    • infrastructure, law enforcement, fire protection, utilities, water, waste disposal, etc. If power goes out, no water, no sewer. Won't take long before human waste causes a LOT of issues we don't really think about.
    • communications, if there is some sort of media (reliable or not) masses may be appeased for a while.
    If it is a total meltdown with all of the above gone, the hope of things getting back to "normal" will vanish & that is when men will become animals.
     

    snorko

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    Think about the current LE response to moderately violent shoplifting and apply that to large scale insurgence.

    I think how long to Thunder Dome will be determined by the responses to the first forays into lawlessness.
     

    Mij

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    In the corn and beans
    Read the book "One Second After."

    It's not a nuke destruction scenario, it's an EMP scenario. The structures are there, but no electricity, water, food resupply, etc.
    ^^^^
    3 book trilogy, read em all.

    Follow up with Jim Rawles, Patriot.

    All fictional but will give you a different perspective.
     

    Mij

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    In the corn and beans
    If the power goes out, the net goes down and city water and sewer stop flowing, then the cities will burn. 1-2 days max. Rural areas may take longer. 6 months later 1/2 of our population will be dead and we will be occupied by China/Russia coalition.
    So, you think SHTF will only happen in the U.S.? :dunno:

    I’m thinking it’s a world wide affair. That’s a true SHTF. The Russian n Chinese will have their own problems.
     

    Wabatuckian

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    If the COVID-19 lockdown was any indication, pretty much immediately. And, just like during COVID, their actions will make little sense.

    Remember how all the toilet paper was gone, but the Kleenex remained?

    All you have to do is hint about a disaster to people and groupthink sends most into panic mode. They go batshit crazy instead of thinking things out.
     
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