How long before things go south if the SHTF?

[JTKelly]

People keep asking the same question, from a different angle.
If there's an apocalyptic event, who the hell wants to attempt to survive?
It would require complete isolation and the ability to constantly defend it.
If a large enough group wants what you have, you aren't going to stop them.

You don't have to be the biggest bear in the woods. You just have to be the badger who convinces the bear to make his living off possum, fawns, and raccoons.

 

[Cynical]

I'm with you brother.Made it thru two tours in a very bad place.When it comes I'll fight tooth and toenails till I'm dead.Come get it fools it ain't gonna be easy as you think.

I was blessed not to be in combat but my brother was not so lucky. I’m pretty certain we could stand back to back and give as good as we got. I’m pretty certain that you understand the concept of buddies and the lengths you would go through to protect them.

 

[Mij]

It doesn't take an education or preparedness to be a criminal.
And the preppers aren't prepared for what those people are capable of.
The preppers aren't "too smart" either, or they would be standing up against everything that's happening to prevent it, instead of prepping for what's to come.

I’ve got to be the least educated person on this thread, if you mean Formal education. But don’t think for a moment that their are not folks that are not preparing for “those people “. We are standing up, in our own legal way. Until it has to be different.

If you don’t know the depths of someone else’s preparation, you are behind the curve. (Their Curve).

I’m well into my 70’s. Lived a full and quite comprehensive life, learned from my family predecessors who also learned from their ancestors. Scotts Irish that came to the New World in the first wave of immigrants, not to be confused with the scotch Irish that came during the potato famine. Now I’ll add what I’ve learned. We’ve been kicking the crap out of elitist both governmental and religious for quite a while.

And as always I’m making this post with respect, not as an argument.

addendum: please note the word “comprehensive”.

 

[Mij]

Some people just don't seem to grasp the reality of what will actually happen in any of these social breakdown events and the human reaction to them.
It doesn't matter how far out one lives, or how much ammo, food, potable water, etc. that they have. They will eventually be found and it taken from them. Just like you want to live, there are others that do also.
Society would never return to what we know it as. Just look around at how it's been altered in a short time.
It's natural instinct to want to survive, but the result isn't going to be worth the effort. The ones that actually survive, will become slaves to the elitists in control. That's the foresight of these people and what they are driving toward.

And that statement alone shows the difference between what you think, and what reality is.

It’s not a ”social breakdown “ as much as it is a ” societal “ break down. It’s not social, it‘s society. We’ve got to get away from a cast system of living. And raise the whole of the group while maintaining the capitalist system of operations. I’m not flying my private plane to a conference to tell the rest of the world how to live. If you get my meaning?

 

[Goodcat]

We’re all prepping and training, but tbh most of us will prob get smoked by some drunk guy named Cletus in a tree with a .270 before we get anywhere. I’m buggin in.

 

[Mij]

We’re all prepping and training, but tbh most of us will prob get smoked by some drunk guy named Cletus in a tree with a .270 before we get anywhere. I’m buggin in.

Cletus ain’t gonna shoot you if you don’t pose a threat to him. (Drunk or not) Or his. He’s a moral individual, as moral as you. Are you on his land? What are your intentions? Seems to me “bugging in” are your best options. JMO. Best o luck.

If you’re preparing and training, what are you prepping n training for? Going out to the country in the trees for some nefarious reasons? And how is Cletus to know this in a SHTF situation? Just my thoughts on your response. Again, best o luck.

Cletus.

 

[Ashton1911]

A larger percentage of Indy lost power this summer for a few days. AFAIK, no looting or crazy happened. In my corner of the woods, folks who had generators ran power cables to their neighbors freezers. Some folks had a cookout, and a lot of folks spend time outside with people they hadn't met before. I don't know how long it would take for camaraderie to break down, but in certain areas, folks are going to circle the wagons and make their world a better place for as long as possible. I know there are others who are worse off, and may go nuts with far less provocation, but I like to think a lot of bad has to happen before people need to get shot.

 

[smokingman]

A larger percentage of Indy lost power this summer for a few days. AFAIK, no looting or crazy happened. In my corner of the woods, folks who had generators ran power cables to their neighbors freezers. Some folks had a cookout, and a lot of folks spend time outside with people they hadn't met before. I don't know how long it would take for camaraderie to break down, but in certain areas, folks are going to circle the wagons and make their world a better place for as long as possible. I know there are others who are worse off, and may go nuts with far less provocation, but I like to think a lot of bad has to happen before people need to get shot.

It will not take much bad. Just thirst or hunger. Most American's have never known either. Toss in a parent trying to feed a hungry child and they think you have food....

Point being the average house has 3 days of food in the USA,and without power most of that will be useless, especially given the current war on gas stoves. People will be hungry and thirsty in less than 48 hours in most cities without power.

I live in the middle of nowhere for many reasons. Other peoples normalcy bias and thinking nothing can ever go terribly wrong, that the world will always work as it has...is one of them. In a shtf normalcy bias will cause the vast majority of chaos and death. Same as it does with any natural disaster.

 

[Expat]

I remember a guy or two on the INGO, long ago, whose SHTF plan was to murder and rob his fellow INGOistas. For some reason the mods of the day banned him.

 

[Ashton1911]

It really depends on how SHTF hits. If the water system is contaminated, but still running, most who are unprepared will have dysentery issues before they cause much issues for others. What causes hoosiers to mob the stores for groceries? we don't get hurricanes/costal flooding here. When was the last time we had anything close to that?

 

[shibumiseeker]

agree. I see people say no one will want to live in that world. That's not true. Humanity survives the worst of the worst and still finds a way to thrive. Then we screw around and f it all up again.

“A Canticle for Liebowitz.”

There are a few different kinds of people in this thread.

There are the wide-eyed Rambo optimists, who will go down fighting in a blaze of glory imagining that they will take out thousands of the enemy first.

There are the “it’s hopeless, so why bother, roll over, and just die now” folks.

There are the “I’ve read a couple of books on this, and seen all the movies, so I think I’m pretty prepared and know what to do.”

And there’s a few folks here who have made it a life study and don’t think that they know exactly how it will go down, because there are too many variables, but who are prepared for most of what life can throw at you, and are realistic enough to recognize that it’s impossible to prepare for everything.

I’ve studied the history of cataclysmic and apocalyptic events throughout human history, written, as well as prior to written. Individual humans will die, but human beings will survive.

I don’t prep for the apocalypse. I’m a survivalist. That doesn’t mean storing beans, gold, and guns, though I certainly have those. Survivalism is about developing a resilient, mindset and lifestyle that can weather whatever life will throw at you. The most likely of that is some kind of medical illness. Next likely are things like loss of job or loss of spouse, either through divorce or death, or other major life altering events that happen on a personal basis, not on a societal basis. The better prepared you are for those, the better, your odds, during some kind of apocalyptic event.

My formula, for this, is to have enough reserves of critical things to live:

Food water fuel shelter.

Mental and physical fitness.

Diverse, financial stability.

Building a diverse and robust skill set.

Having those is no guarantee that you will survive any given thing. But it dramatically improves your odds. There’s always the random idiots who are going to survive some major event, but the majority people who survive will be the people who have the qualities I’ve outlined above. The poster above who envisions the Mad Max style random roving gangs has not studied history. Even in the worst hell holes in humanity’s history, there have always been those who survived in spite of not being part of the dominant paradigm.

 

[Cameramonkey]

A larger percentage of Indy lost power this summer for a few days. AFAIK, no looting or crazy happened. In my corner of the woods, folks who had generators ran power cables to their neighbors freezers. Some folks had a cookout, and a lot of folks spend time outside with people they hadn't met before. I don't know how long it would take for camaraderie to break down, but in certain areas, folks are going to circle the wagons and make their world a better place for as long as possible. I know there are others who are worse off, and may go nuts with far less provocation, but I like to think a lot of bad has to happen before people need to get shot.

There is a key difference. Everyone knew it was temporary and normal would return shortly. "It was just some hamburger and steaks. We can buy more in a day or two when power returns. See, 20 minutes away everything is just fine. We will be fine. "

I'm sure if something went boom first, attitudes would have been markedly different. When its not just your hood, but instead your region and there is no sign of replenishment, attitudes will shift FAST.

Some might still take that initial charitable attitude of "Eat it before it goes bad, and if we can help others with this, great. Its not like we can hoard it and use it later ourselves." But once that initial charitable act is done, I don't see it continuing.

 

[Ashton1911]

What makes you assume that we will know when SHTF starts? If it just is that cops stop showing up, it would take a few weeks for WROL to fully take hold. Business would function, and we would assume cops would come back at some point. Systems as big as our society don't just fall over overnight. It is a slow decay, and we are in it right now. Riots and other things pop up. Mass police resignations. Prices rising and availability dropping off. We lose faith in our political processes. Rising civil violence.
Having neighbors you know matters. But if and when the current crazy gets worse, it won't come with huge banners and skywriters proclaiming: THE END OF THE WORLD IS TODAY
And even if it does, most people will disagree and ignore the signs, since those are the ramblings of those crazies. If everything goes nuts, it would take a week for everyone to realize it. And a few more for the decent folk to truly turn animalistic.

 

[Cameramonkey]

What makes you assume that we will know when SHTF starts? If it just is that cops stop showing up, it would take a few weeks for WROL to fully take hold. Business would function, and we would assume cops would come back at some point. Systems as big as our society don't just fall over overnight. It is a slow decay, and we are in it right now. Riots and other things pop up. Mass police resignations. Prices rising and availability dropping off. We lose faith in our political processes. Rising civil violence.
Having neighbors you know matters. But if and when the current crazy gets worse, it won't come with huge banners and skywriters proclaiming: THE END OF THE WORLD IS TODAY
And even if it does, most people will disagree and ignore the signs, since those are the ramblings of those crazies. If everything goes nuts, it would take a week for everyone to realize it. And a few more for the decent folk to truly turn animalistic.

You arent totally wrong. We ARE in a death spiral.

Notice I said "when something goes boom". It could be a Carrington event, or an EMP, or some other catastrophic failure that makes the grid go down. My scenario was in the event it was obvious that power isnt coming back on any time soon, for ANYWHERE within a tank of gas or more, and its obvious nobody is coming to save you.

 

[Ashton1911]

In what situation where that occurs would there be clarity?
We can barely trust what we see live with our own eyes and we know that most of the net is full of lies. If the cell network goes down, and you hear a boom, how can you know it isn't a transformer less than a mile away vs a nuke in chicago? Even if folks get nuked, we won't have an hour of total clarity on the news before things go dark.

 

[Magyars]

“A Canticle for Liebowitz.”

There are a few different kinds of people in this thread.

There are the wide-eyed Rambo optimists, who will go down fighting in a blaze of glory imagining that they will take out thousands of the enemy first.

There are the “it’s hopeless, so why bother, roll over, and just die now” folks.

There are the “I’ve read a couple of books on this, and seen all the movies, so I think I’m pretty prepared and know what to do.”

And there’s a few folks here who have made it a life study and don’t think that they know exactly how it will go down, because there are too many variables, but who are prepared for most of what life can throw at you, and are realistic enough to recognize that it’s impossible to prepare for everything.

I’ve studied the history of cataclysmic and apocalyptic events throughout human history, written, as well as prior to written. Individual humans will die, but human beings will survive.

I don’t prep for the apocalypse. I’m a survivalist. That doesn’t mean storing beans, gold, and guns, though I certainly have those. Survivalism is about developing a resilient, mindset and lifestyle that can weather whatever life will throw at you. The most likely of that is some kind of medical illness. Next likely are things like loss of job or loss of spouse, either through divorce or death, or other major life altering events that happen on a personal basis, not on a societal basis. The better prepared you are for those, the better, your odds, during some kind of apocalyptic event.

My formula, for this, is to have enough reserves of critical things to live:

Food water fuel shelter.

Mental and physical fitness.

Diverse, financial stability.

Building a diverse and robust skill set.

Having those is no guarantee that you will survive any given thing. But it dramatically improves your odds. There’s always the random idiots who are going to survive some major event, but the majority people who survive will be the people who have the qualities I’ve outlined above. The poster above who envisions the Mad Max style random roving gangs has not studied history. Even in the worst hell holes in humanity’s history, there have always been those who survived in spite of not being part of the dominant paradigm.

I fondly remember that book. Good read

 

[Cameramonkey]

In what situation where that occurs would there be clarity?
We can barely trust what we see live with our own eyes and we know that most of the net is full of lies. If the cell network goes down, and you hear a boom, how can you know it isn't a transformer less than a mile away vs a nuke in chicago? Even if folks get nuked, we won't have an hour of total clarity on the news before things go dark.

You answered your own question at the end. The sudden lack of comms and info will be telling. Even for the idiots. They'll just take an extra day or so to figure it out. Probably the first time they try to DoorDash. LOL

And if its a Carrington event, even your new-ish fuel injected car may not start. So when nothing electronic works, And if you can't pick up any radio stations and cable doesnt work, it wont be subtle.

 

[Ashton1911]

Cell towers can go down when there are power outages.
The radio would be more telling, but most people don't think that way.
Besides a solar event, the continued spiral will probably result in excrement gently sliding into the fan. The current trends will worsen, but 95% of average Joes will try to go to work like usual.

 

[JCSR]

I think our biggest threat will be the women that can't get their antidepressants.
Can you imagine millions of women going cold turkey at one time.
No one will be safe.

 

[Lpherr]

Apparently, everyone has a different definition of SHTF.
To me, SHTF is as bad as it can get, and that isn't going to be localized; it will be global.
Sure, people will do their best to survive, but in the end, it's you against the world, not just your neighborhood.
There will be millions of people struggling to stay alive, and not just your town or city.
It's delusional to believe anyone can be prepared for what would happen. Millions of people searching for food
and could very likely be you that they intend on hanging over a fire; what's your preparation for that?