and then there were two... 'why Paul is closer to Romey than most think'

[Prometheus]

GOP race down to Romney and Paul (and may be closer than you think) - Atlanta Elections 2012 | Examiner.com

Great article for those interested in how elections are actually decided.

 

[Fletch]

I. Can't. Wait.

 

[jsgolfman]

From a delegate standpoint, he's won Minnesota, Iowa, Louisiana, Colorado, Mississippi, Alaska and perhaps Massachusetts (depending on how much they are bound).

 

[KG1]

So....you're saying there's still a chance for the "impossible" to happen?

 

[Expat]

A stupid article by a fanboy. He says Gingerich is dropping out with 137 delegates because he is mathematically out of it. Paul has 80 delegates and so he is closer than we think? Gimme a break.

 

[Prometheus]

So....you're saying there's still a chance for the "impossible" to happen?

Thats the only 'hope' we have.

Romney v obama means four more years of crap.

 

[KG1]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s&feature=related

 

[Prometheus]

I've said it before, it's as likely Paul gets the nomination as it is romney beating obama.

Does that mean you won't be voting for romney in Novemember since he is a long shot as well?

 

[UncleMike]

A stupid article by a fanboy. He says Gingerich is dropping out with 137 delegates because he is mathematically out of it. Paul has 80 delegates and so he is closer than we think? Gimme a break.

QFT....

 

[jsgolfman]

All of the delegate counts you've seen published so far are based on winning the primaries, straw polls, etc. not the actual conventions and caucases where delegates are selected. Very few of the states so far are winner take all for delegates. Even the ones you are told are winner take all, seldom are. You also probably assume Indiana is winner take all as well.

I stated early on in the political cycle that it wasn't over just because Romney or Gingrich or whomever won the popularity contest of certain states. The real contest was for delegates. If you don't believe that or understand it, you better start learning.

Did you know that to get on the ballot in Tampa, a candidate needs to win a plurality of delegates in 5 states? Not votes, delegates. Guess who's met that criteria?

 

[Prometheus]

A stupid article by a fanboy. He says Gingerich is dropping out with 137 delegates because he is mathematically out of it. Paul has 80 delegates and so he is closer than we think? Gimme a break.

The ap is guessing, that was part of the point. It also proves the point people are clueless as to how many delegates he actually has.

Haters gonna hate, whatevs, it's going to be an interesting national convention.

 

[iwearcowboyboots]

The ap is guessing, that was part of the point. It also proves the point people are clueless as to how many delegates he actually has.

Haters gonna hate, whatevs, it's going to be an interesting national convention.

Not only is the AP guessing, but they aren't updating their guesses despite the information coming out of the states where national delegates have actually been determined.

 

[88GT]

Based on that logic, why can't Gingrich or Santorum be just as likely?

And why can't Romney beat Obama?

My only problem with these desperate lunges are that they fail to hold up when the measure of reality is applied to them. We're supposed to believe they're valid for Paul and only Paul, but none of the others, who arguably have stronger chances based on the premises being used in the first place. I don't have a problem with the conclusion per se, just the premises used to support it.

 

[Bond 281]

Based on that logic, why can't Gingrich or Santorum be just as likely?

And why can't Romney beat Obama?

My only problem with these desperate lunges are that they fail to hold up when the measure of reality is applied to them. We're supposed to believe they're valid for Paul and only Paul, but none of the others, who arguably have stronger chances based on the premises being used in the first place. I don't have a problem with the conclusion per se, just the premises used to support it.

What are you talking about? The whole point is that Paul's supporters, and NOT Santorum's or Gingrich's, are becoming delegates. Nobody's suggesting that it couldn't be Santorum or Gingrich were their supporters doing the same thing, but they're not. So it's correct to only really apply the delegate counts to Paul.

And from what I've seen in polls lately Obama beats Romney pretty handily in a general election.

 

[rambone]

 

[iwearcowboyboots]

And why can't Romney beat Obama?

To say the debates will be rough for Romney is an understatement.

Romney is going to have to tell the nation why many of the positions he used to proudly support are going to ruin our country as many of those positions match up pretty well to where President Obama stands. Surely Obama (or his debate handlers) would be intelligent enough to repeatedly bring up anytime Romney is lambasting Obama (or the left) for something that Romney is on video also giving the thumbs up on...

I can't imagine that won't also end up as a reoccurring theme in Obama campaign ads (Romney's own words being used to defeat him).

 

[windellmc]

Obamacare is basically Romneycare rolled out to the whole country. Romney is also just as much in bed with the banks as Obama.

Romney also signed a permanent assault weapons ban in MA.

I am not convinced the economy can survive 4 more years of Obama/Romney without completely imploding and going full scale Greater Depression. Obama has already taken most of the steps that FDR took that deepened the Great Depression.

 

[J_Wales]

I am not convinced the economy can survive 4 more years of Obama/Romney without completely imploding and going full scale Greater Depression. Obama has already taken most of the steps that FDR took that deepened the Great Depression.

What makes you think that is not the plan?

 

[nawainwright]

Based on that logic, why can't Gingrich or Santorum be just as likely?

And why can't Romney beat Obama?

My only problem with these desperate lunges are that they fail to hold up when the measure of reality is applied to them. We're supposed to believe they're valid for Paul and only Paul, but none of the others, who arguably have stronger chances based on the premises being used in the first place. I don't have a problem with the conclusion per se, just the premises used to support it.

Simply put, if you QUIT, then its awfully hard to even be considered for the impossible. I'm not lining up and saying that RP will pull it off (I think it unlikely) but I can still hope. But when you shut down your campaign (ala Santorum/gingrich) thats a surefire way to lose.

 

[iwearcowboyboots]

Simply put, if you QUIT, then its awfully hard to even be considered for the impossible. I'm not lining up and saying that RP will pull it off (I think it unlikely) but I can still hope. But when you shut down your campaign (ala Santorum/gingrich) thats a surefire way to lose.

Gingrich didn't shut down his campaign, his donors did.