2021 shortages

[BehindBlueI's]

From the horses mouth: (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm)
Oct 2019 $2.33 per M-BTU
Oct 2020 $2.39 per M-BTU
Oct 2021 $5.51 per M-BTU
The prices "might double" by 2035?? That moment has already passed! Our heating bills will more than double in 2021-22, why this fact alone isn't plastered on every news outlet boggles the mind.

Probably because a doubling of a futures index doesn't equate to a doubling of your heating bill.

 

[hoglegs]

Probably because a doubling of a futures index doesn't equate to a doubling of your heating bill.

Those are spot-prices not futures. But either way, its gonna hurt... I plan on isolating unused areas & heating in zones

 

[DoggyDaddy]

On a much smaller issue, where has the Reddi Whip gone?? Got a pumkin pie the other day, no whip cream at Meijer. None at Stracks. None at Walgreens... You can take my heat but the whip cream?? Noooooo!

I may or may not have a partial can in my fridge that I might be willing to let go. Don't lowball me! I know what I've got!!

 

[Bugzilla]

We are on natural gas now but I remember the $4.00+ a gallon propane about 6 years ago or so. Ouch!

 

[hoglegs]

I may or may not have a partial can in my fridge that I might be willing to let go. Don't lowball me! I know what I've got!!

One brick of cci SRP or federal LPP for one full can of reddi whip! The half can gets you a pound of Varget

 

[DoggyDaddy]

One brick of cci SRP or federal LPP for one full can of reddi whip! The half can gets you a pound of Varget

Dang, you DO like your ReddiWhip don't you!?!

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Those are spot-prices not futures. But either way, its gonna hurt... I plan on isolating unused areas & heating in zones

The Henry Hub is what most futures are based on. It's a spot price, but that's not it's value. It's also not a 1:1 predictor of your rates. Go look back to 2005. Was your heating bill in 2020 1/6th of what it was in 2005? Of course not.

The energy market is convoluted because it's really two markets. The physical market and the financial market. I don't know if it's still true, but Goldman-Sachs used to be the biggest trader of oil in the world but they never took delivery of a single physical barrel. Your utility company is not buying gas at today's spot price, nor is it necessarily buying from that hub.

Your utility is buying gas on contract already. Gas prices are only a portion of your bill (transport, etc. are big chunks). Consumer rates are regulated and increases must be approved by the state. All of which means that despite what you see on that chart your heating bill isn't doubling this winter.

See: https://fox59.com/news/utility-companies-predict-increase-in-gas-bills-this-winter/

Last year, the average bill for the season was $423, however, this year it’s anticipated to be closer to $474.

Much closer to a 10% increase than a 100% increase.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

All of which means that despite what you see on that chart your heating bill isn't doubling this winter.

See: https://fox59.com/news/utility-companies-predict-increase-in-gas-bills-this-winter/


Much closer to a 10% increase than a 100% increase.

Well, that's an average increase across all customers according to what I've been hearing. Some (with really poorly insulated homes for example) could see upwards of 30-35%. And it's also utility company dependent. Citizens Gas has locked in a long enough contract apparently, that they will be closer to the 10% rate increase. Some of the other utilities are going to be hit harder, as will their customers. As I'm sure you know, the rate doesn't have the same 1 to 1 effect on everyone in any case.

 

[d.kaufman]

Our provider, NIPSCO, said expect at least a 17% increase this year

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Well, that's an average increase across all customers according to what I've been hearing. Some (with really poorly insulated homes for example) could see upwards of 30-35%. And it's also utility company dependent. Citizens Gas has locked in a long enough contract apparently, that they will be closer to the 10% rate increase. Some of the other utilities are going to be hit harder, as will their customers. As I'm sure you know, the rate doesn't have the same 1 to 1 effect on everyone in any case.

Yup. Rural areas will likely be hit harder. Smaller purchases, less market influence. Never argued differently, just that rates aren't "more than doubling this winter" which was what I responded to.

Buy energy stocks. It's going to get worse before it gets better... then get worse again and stay there.

 

[JTScribe]

From the horses mouth: (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm)
Oct 2019 $2.33 per M-BTU
Oct 2020 $2.39 per M-BTU
Oct 2021 $5.51 per M-BTU
The prices "might double" by 2035?? That moment has already passed! Our heating bills will more than double in 2021-22, why this fact alone isn't plastered on every news outlet boggles the mind. (I guess I need to stop trusting my lying eyes...) Its gonna be a cold winter!

On a much smaller issue, where has the Reddi Whip gone?? Got a pumkin pie the other day, no whip cream at Meijer. None at Stracks. None at Walgreens... You can take my heat but the whip cream?? Noooooo!

C02 shortages, maybe?

 

[BehindBlueI's]

C02 shortages, maybe?

Both CO2 and aluminum cans.

 

[snorko]

Work copier/printer toner. both black and yellow were flashing low. called to order through our service plan and were told there were none in the warehouse.

I told them when the copier shut down for lack of toner, we would be withholding the $700 per month payment until we had supplies. Funny how after that a couple were expedited to us.

 

[JTScribe]

Work copier/printer toner. both black and yellow were flashing low. called to order through our service plan and were told there were none in the warehouse.

I told them when the copier shut down for lack of toner, we would be withholding the $700 per month payment until we had supplies. Funny how after that a couple were expedited to us.

I used to work for Xerox, you'd be surprised how much copier toner and spare parts are produced in Japan. The earthquake a few years back created havoc, too.

 

[Franc]

When I first moved to Indiana I drew the line after the cow. When I was a kid I made friends with donkeys and mules and could not bring myself to eat beef.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

When I first moved to Indiana I drew the line after the cow. When I was a kid I made friends with donkeys and mules and could not bring myself to eat beef.

I'd have to slide the bunny over into the 'whenever available' section, personally.

 

[M.Cain]

Wife's uncle owns an import business. The shipping container is a real thing. For him, the price of shipping one jumped from ~$5k up to $65k this year alone. That's from China to Chicago

That one way to keep the cheep China crap out of the US Bet when China buys soybeans the farmer will never see the profit .

 

[Franc]

That one way to keep the cheep China crap out of the US Bet when China buys soybeans the farmer will never see the profit .

It is the opposite. I work in a business that mostly run production in Vietnam. The container shortage happened because the US companies were ordering so much from suppliers in China (and Vietnam) that it overwhelmed the shipping capacity. To add to the problem a lot of shipping capacity was scrapped during 2020 because the shipping companies were hunkering down expecting bankruptcies. It is because people are buying so much that there is a container shortage.

 

[littletommy]

My daughter grocery shops exclusively at Meijer, and every week for the last few months, Meijer didn’t have toilet paper, they didn’t have any pasta of any kind, they didn’t have potatoes and on and on and on, this past week it was applesauce pouches (she has a toddler). Every week we go to Kroger and they have everything, nothing is noticeably out of stock, so I’m wondering if it’s not just a matter of Kroger having more buying power?

All that being said, we always stay well stocked on things, and rarely ever need anything we don’t have on hand, I’m trying to convince the kids to do the same.

 

[bwframe]

...we always stay well stocked on things, and rarely ever need anything we don’t have on hand, I’m trying to convince the kids to do the same.

Some "perishables" are good for months. No reason, other than storage space management, not to keep a rotation far ahead of the game, should a specific shortage come up.

My Kroger was out of creamed cheese the last trip. No big deal, 'cause I was only down to five boxes still in the fridge.