Stock market.... What are you doing?

[smokingman]

Someone seemed to have a moment of brilliance in an otherwise dim stock picking past.
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/16/8361...stock-sell-offs-highly-unusual-analysis-shows

At least 5 congress men and women did the same after the classified covid-19 briefing from both sides of the isle. It was wrong of course.

What I would like to see is that briefing. They had to be told some fairly hard truths to go and sell everything.

 

[zer0day]

People, if you didn't short the USO when the prices were falling, you missed out. I got in for a pinch and made a couple hundred from it. By the time I got to it, it was mostly bought up. At the end of the day, the volume on the USO was over 1 billion. If you look at stocks like Apple or Amazon, they usually have 10-20 million in volume. The writing was on the wall and some acted on it and some watched it happen.
I see oil will continue to go lower and stay that way. It's going to be a long time before we see $50 a barrel again. Want to read into it more? Look at the options on the USO. Still heavy activity on the $1 puts.
Keep an eye out for the next 10 days as there are 2 tanker ships that are on the way to the US from Saudi Arabia carrying oil. If we get more, where is it going to be stored and who is buying it?

Next week is a huge earnings week. There will be plenty on opportunities for puts and calls on big names. Go with your gut on what their Q2 numbers will look like based on who they are. Starbucks, Facebook, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, 3M, Visa, Comcast I'd look at calls on them. Many will buy in on shares during the day of so they don't feel they will miss out on the pop. Other guys like Boeing, McDonalds, Exxon, Ford, I'd buy puts. They won't have much to say or report in a positive way to provide them any gains that day. People will sell off their positions or short sell to hedge their stakes.

Aside from that there are conversations taking place with the government regarding taking stakes in companies as part of a bailout of sorts from them. The airlines for example are on the top of the list as some are liquidating the shares of the buy backs they have had in place for so long. So Trump and Munuchin could be working on a deal to buy up tickets, shares and fuel for them as they take a stake in the company.

 

[AtTheMurph]

People, if you didn't short the USO when the prices were falling, you missed out. I got in for a pinch and made a couple hundred from it. By the time I got to it, it was mostly bought up. At the end of the day, the volume on the USO was over 1 billion. If you look at stocks like Apple or Amazon, they usually have 10-20 million in volume. The writing was on the wall and some acted on it and some watched it happen.
I see oil will continue to go lower and stay that way. It's going to be a long time before we see $50 a barrel again. Want to read into it more? Look at the options on the USO. Still heavy activity on the $1 puts.
Keep an eye out for the next 10 days as there are 2 tanker ships that are on the way to the US from Saudi Arabia carrying oil. If we get more, where is it going to be stored and who is buying it?

Next week is a huge earnings week. There will be plenty on opportunities for puts and calls on big names. Go with your gut on what their Q2 numbers will look like based on who they are. Starbucks, Facebook, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, 3M, Visa, Comcast I'd look at calls on them. Many will buy in on shares during the day of so they don't feel they will miss out on the pop. Other guys like Boeing, McDonalds, Exxon, Ford, I'd buy puts. They won't have much to say or report in a positive way to provide them any gains that day. People will sell off their positions or short sell to hedge their stakes.

Aside from that there are conversations taking place with the government regarding taking stakes in companies as part of a bailout of sorts from them. The airlines for example are on the top of the list as some are liquidating the shares of the buy backs they have had in place for so long. So Trump and Munuchin could be working on a deal to buy up tickets, shares and fuel for them as they take a stake in the company.

So in other words, go against the Wall Street wisdom of "buy the rumor and sells the news"?

 

[jd4320t]

Seems to be bouncing back a bit.

 

[Doug]

My mutual fund managers have held my on paper losses to about 10%. I expect to recover that quickly when the economy opens.

 

[nonobaddog]

Seems to be bouncing back a bit.

That reminds me of the media comments.

Down 50 points is plunging down toward a bear market.
Up 650 points is edging slightly higher.

 

[hoosierdoc]

happy with my NCLH Sept 2020 7.5 and 10 calls. only one each

 

[smokingman]

The Federal reserve today4/29/2020
"The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term," [FONT=lucida_granderegular]the Fed said in a statement after two-day meeting.

[/FONT][FONT=lucida_granderegular]"In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy,[/FONT] the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective [FONT=lucida_granderegular]and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. "

[/FONT][FONT=lucida_granderegular]Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation

[/FONT][FONT=lucida_granderegular]"The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, [/FONT]including information related to public health,[FONT=lucida_granderegular] as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy"

[/FONT][FONT=lucida_granderegular]To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve [/FONT]will continue [FONT=lucida_granderegular]to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities[/FONT] in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions

The absence of numeric caps confirms that QE remains of the limitless variety - which allows for inter meeting flexibility.”

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200429a1.htm

​More at the link.

Set to have the best month since 1974(already had the best week since then).

 

[AtTheMurph]

It is going to end badly. The market is at it's highest valuations - EVER. One would think that selling high and buying low would be the prudent move.

 

[CHCRandy]

yeah, tough right now. I am back to up about 20% this year now........considering the beating I took late March, I feel lucky! I am looking for a huge market dump again.....hope I am wrong.

 

[BugI02]

yeah, tough right now. I am back to up about 20% this year now........considering the beating I took late March, I feel lucky! I am looking for a huge market dump again.....hope I am wrong.

I think we'll retest the March lows soon, and if we revert to the mean on forward looking P/Es we should blow right through them - only question is how fast. I hope it stops a bit beyond down 50% from the highs but I could see it getting to -66%

How quickly we can get businesses making some income could limit the downside but lots of folks won't have the disposable income they had a few month's ago so revenues likely down across the board. Likely a two-tiered market develops with a steady, stable top tier like PNG, JNJ, AMZN, KR - stocks serving basic needs - and a volatile bottom tier where all the short players hang out

Buffett is sitting on north of $150 billion in cash and he's not buying. He said he doesn't see anything worth current prices. More pain ahead

 

[Okimar]

I'm into AMD, SHOP and NTEC and am just waiting for the recover to hit so I can real the rewards.

 

[muncie21]

Damn Bug, that's an ominous prediction. I'm hoping the 5 Trillion the fed is fixing to pump into the economy helps to soften the cushion a bit.

Where are you planning to park your money to wait out the storm?

 

[BugI02]

60/40 stocks to bonds, heavy on rock solid dividend payers. And I parked the lion's share of it a long time ago. I'm getting paid on average a little over 4% and don't need to care what the underlying price of the security is nor need to sell anything to pay expenses - and the quality companies will come back unless the whole thing burns down

The prediction is based on how low share prices would need to go to get to the tough times P/E ratios of 13 to 15, and its a WAG because companies are withdrawing previous guidance and declining to update same because they can get away with it in times like these

 

[melensdad]

Mostly watching and waiting for the big drop.

I went to cash a week before the crash. There are plenty of buying opportunities for short term holds. Some tech and some business sectors are going to have some big winners. But mostly we are going to have losers. We are seeing federal debt increase to the point that the dollar is about to collapse as a real currency. Its value as a world currency is certainly at risk.

 

[foszoe]

67/6/4/22 Domestic Stocks/Foreign Stock/Bonds/Cash.

I like the stocks I have but if any one of them goes up 15% in a day, I have standing sell orders for 10% of my shares. Then I have a buy order for the shares I sold+1 for a 5% drop. Started the year with more in bonds but sold to buy stocks.

 

[terrehautian]

I have a retirement account set up with the same person my grandparents trusted (they invested late but early enough to get my grandma through assisted living). I took everything out of my 401ks from old job (three of them due to ownership changes) and put them all into one retirement account. It was up above 50k slightly until the latest sell off happened and went down to 38k. Now is back up to 44k. I need to take out the money in my new jobs 401k and put it in there this year and let it rebuild while gaining better money in a managed account.

 

[smokingman]

Latest Q2 GDP forecasts.

[h=3]Latest estimate: -34.9 percent — May 8, 2020[/h]https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -31.2% for 2020:Q2
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

That is a larger loss in one quarter than the entire great depression.

 

[smokingman]

Federal debt,state debt,municipal debt,mortgage debt, what the hell may as well buy corporate debt...we are "The FED".

N A HISTORIC MILESTONE, THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL START BUYING CORPORATE-BOND ETFS ON TUESDAY https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-e...cks-off-historic-purchase-program-11589296012


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/f...ing-corporate-bond-etfs-on-tuesday-2020-05-11

 

[AtTheMurph]

Federal debt,state debt,municipal debt,mortgage debt, what the hell may as well buy corporate debt...we are "The FED".

N A HISTORIC MILESTONE, THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL START BUYING CORPORATE-BOND ETFS ON TUESDAY https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-e...cks-off-historic-purchase-program-11589296012


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/f...ing-corporate-bond-etfs-on-tuesday-2020-05-11

So we are no different than Zimbabwe!