It's the economy, stupid

[Route 45]

Lots of people still not looking due to being on the dole from uncle sugar’s expanded payouts/child credits, maybe.

I don't see much of that today, and you have the added factor of the government paying so many not to work

I keep seeing this over and over. Federal unemployment assistance ended in September. What dole are we talking about?

 

[JeepHammer]

Are there still some people that think the president really has that much influence?

Generally no...
But the president can throw a monkey wrench in things with tariffs, banning imports, etc.

Let's not forget bad decisions by Congress, we can't manufacture a solar panel in this country, not to mention cast iron issues like water pump housings, vehicle hubs,
Pliable steel like screws/nails/staples/springs...

In this case, it was worst case,
Short sighted lawmakers, Bans, Tariffs, COVID hitting after lunar new year (about a month/6 weeks off for Asians) so the backlog was already about 6 weeks when everything else cracked down.

Perfect storm comes to mind...
Not just one dent in the system, fails on all sides in the supply chain.

 

[bwframe]

I remember the inflation in the 70s, the big difference was more people were working making stuff that was bought here and their wages were going up with the prices. I don't see much of that today, and you have the added factor of the government paying so many not to work.

I sometimes wonder if we are creating a sort of noisy non working class of people, and wonder where they fit into the overall economic structure.

U.S. wages are soaring, but high inflation is not leaving workers much better off

Inflation in the U.S. was already running at the fastest pace in 30 years. Now rapidly rising wages are adding to the upward pressure on prices.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[ditcherman]

I remember the inflation in the 70s, the big difference was more people were working making stuff that was bought here and their wages were going up with the prices. I don't see much of that today, and you have the added factor of the government paying so many not to work.

I sometimes wonder if we are creating a sort of noisy non working class of people, and wonder where they fit into the overall economic structure.

There has been “noisy” people around, and I’ll call them “non-producers” around for a while but as you are pointing out seems to be growing.
Think they could go work for OSHA to help the mandate effort? Or ATF?

I’ve marveled at the amount of manpower that Australia has to enforce what is going on there. Maybe this is how they get there.

Tried to word this as non-political as I could, we’re not in that section…

 

[ditcherman]

I keep seeing this over and over. Federal unemployment assistance ended in September. What dole are we talking about?

I have the same question, but also wonder where all the people are?

 

[DoggyDaddy]

I have the same question, but also wonder where all the people are?

Well, we're only 9 days into October, so that last "big" paycheck may not have run out yet.

 

[Leadeye]

U.S. wages are soaring, but high inflation is not leaving workers much better off

Inflation in the U.S. was already running at the fastest pace in 30 years. Now rapidly rising wages are adding to the upward pressure on prices.

www.marketwatch.com

I'll have to look around and see how that's broken down. I know everybody is trying to find workers, I can't go to work myself and not see the signs. They're everywhere.

 

[Route 45]

Well, we're only 9 days into October, so that last "big" paycheck may not have run out yet.

We're a month out. Federal unemployment assistance ended on September 6.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

We're a month out. Federal unemployment assistance ended on September 6.

Ah, I thought it was extended to the 30th. If so, then good. Maybe I'll be able to have a pizza delivered again.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Generally no...
But the president can throw a monkey wrench in things with tariffs, banning imports, etc.

POTUS can only do what Congress allows or delegates, as tariff authority is specifically granted to Congress in the US Constitution.

 

[ditcherman]

POTUS can only do what Congress allows or delegates, as tariff authority is specifically granted to Congress in the US Constitution.

Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Oh wait, you’re serious…..

ETA: since I’m smarting off to the smart squirrel I’d better clarify; the thing I’m pointing out is that in general the balance of powers thing is out the window, and if there is already a tariff in place, the pres can raise it. Unless we’re at war, then the pres can institute it. Trump argued war meant any state of emergency btw.

 

[jwamplerusa]

Why would you do that to a poor horse?

The horse is Kamala...

 

[DoggyDaddy]

The horse is Kamala...

You misspelled "whore".

 

[bwframe]

I have the same question, but also wonder where all the people are?

Just because the free federal money ran out, doesn't mean the states have quit paying people not to work. Especially the woke, high mandate, states.

Pay people not to work on the coasts, where all of the news is reported from, and the rest of the country wonders why they should be working for anything but mailbox money?

For nearly two years we have trained a generation of people that they don't have to work for money.

 

[BigRed]

Producer inflation accelerated in August, as wholesale prices rose record 8.3% from a year ago

The producer price index for final demand products was expected to increase 0.6% in August, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

Wholesale inflation hits 8.3%.

 

[Ark]

Inflation: *goes up so fast it sets records*

Biden: "Blame the unvaccinated and print another $3.5 trillion!

 

[BigRed]

obiden is a clear and present danger.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

I think when people stop looking, they're no longer counted in the stats.

This is true, but there are also stats that capture that information as well.

If you retire, you are not 'unemployed' but you do fall out of the Total Workforce Participation Rate.

If you are a stay-at-home parent, same.

If you leave work and go to college, same.

If you turn 16 and *don't* get a job that day, same, even if you never had had a job before.

If you are drawing benefits, you are 'unemployed'. IIRC, that includes if you are on a short term layoff with a callback date, which would mean you can draw but aren't required to look for work.


I've posted it elsewhere, but different sectors have been hit very differently. Transportation has added a lot of total jobs over the past 3-5 years. They had a lot of openings pre-COVID and have continued to have openings not only as people leave but as brand new positions are created. Hospitality and Retail were hit really hard by COVID and many people have not returned to those jobs. It's reasonable, but not certain, from looking at employment numbers that many of them have changed industries. They quit or got laidoff from their retail job, drew unemployment for a bit or didn't, then went to work in an Amazon warehouse or went to college, etc. The job loss may have been a bump from the status quo and they realized they could "do better".

Total workforce participation is only off about 1% from a few years before COVID. That's significant but not ahistorical. Increased death rates may account for a bit more. I'm spitballing early retirements and two income homes going to one income homes more or less permanently account for much of the rest of it, but I've not looked at it that granularly.

Long term, this is going to shift the economy. Maybe some reversal of wages accumulating more and more at the top, but lower paid jobs are going unfilled because higher paid jobs without mitigating negatives are available and that will continue to hurt front line visible positions in restaurants, hotels, retail shops, etc.

 

[KLB]

The numbers don't add up. You can't tell me that the people that worked all of these open positions went to work driving for Amazon. Driving around town here, there are a LOT of businesses with signs out saying they are hiring. Offering bonuses and higher than usual wages. It wasn't like that pre-covid, and we didn't lose enough people to account for those positions.

I know that some of my companies plants aren't even interviewing. If someone applies, they hire them. That is manufacturing, not services.

 

[actaeon277]

All the industries seem to be short.
And the Trades.