Federal fires back

[Amishman44]

Well, I for one applaud this senior level executive for publishing his statement.
I don't know what every other manufacturer is doing to be able to handle the increased demand for their products in the midst of a pandemic.
What I do know is our company is being asked to increase production in certain segments anywhere from 35-50% and in one case doubling current volumes. Like most manufacturers that know what they are doing, we don't sit on unused capacity so when these requests come, we have to make a decision whether to invest or politely refuse the business. We stay at 85% of capacity so that we can handle 20% spikes from customers periodically. So basically to accept more business, we have to add weekend work. And that gets expensive in more ways than salaries.
If we accept, then we go to work. Increasing output is not just an issue of money. Actually money is the least of the problems. Getting the plant set to handle increases like this takes time. Sometimes so much that by the time one can be geared up, the demand has passed and now it's no longer needed. It cost $1,000,000+ to add a press to be able to accept a new piece of business. Add to that, wiring, plant space, plumbing, hiring and training people to run it, and well it's easy to see that you can't just flip a switch or hire more people to meet increased demand.
There is a delicate balance and more than a few great companies have been brought to their knees because they jumped on the bandwagon and tried to capacitize for the demand and not see it sustain over enough time to get their ROI.
Now, roll in covid. People are out sick, or having to call in because they may have been in contact with someone expected to have covid. When they are at work, they have to maintain "social" distancing, sanitize their work area, leave time between shifts to deep clean, work around barriers, slow production, the list goes on. This has the effect of reducing output when they need to be increasing it.
These are the times we live in. Look around; it's not just ammunition that is hard to find.
End of sermon.

I concur with this statement by gregkl, and I think I hear more frustration in the voice of the Federal President, than anything else!
I used to be a biology/health teacher and I can understand the frustration that goes with working one's butt off and never having it be 'good enough'.
I agree, he could have had a more positive tone to the video, but at least he's addressing the issue that others have presented to him and is providing feedback.
Spelling out the facts regarding the current demand vs Covid-19 pandemic vs the hiring + training demands to keep up with product demands...is a logistics issue.
Thank you, sir, for responding to the critics and providing answers + explanations to the ongoing issue(s) regarding the current ammunition shortages in America.

 

[04FXSTS]

About the first part of October I stopped at the company I had retired from back in 2013, they make components for jet engines. I went to see the lead man in the tool room where I had worked and it seemed like not much was being done. He said they had plenty of work but couldn't hire people even when they were willing to train new hires.
Just seems like so many younger people and some of the older just don't want to work, at least no longer than they have to so they can build up unemployment. Now I am talking about a company in Illinois and Illinois is quite generous with benefits more so than Indiana. Then as was stated earlier to get any kind of decent job you have to pass a drug test. Of course there is no drug test for unemployment or welfare so this creates a problem in itself. Jim.

 

[Eagle]

Dry fire practice never looked so good.

 

[Kirk Freeman]

"Gun guys" as a group are gawd awful at understanding an Econ 101 supply & demand curve.

At a gun store in Lafayette yesterday I was told by the owner that the store sold more ammo in 2020 than 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014 combined. Six years of ammo in 1 year.

So glad I saw this coming and made like the ant, even getting back into reloading.

 

[Hohn]

"Gun guys" as a group are gawd awful at understanding an Econ 101 supply & demand curve.

Guess what, when demand goes up, supply goes down and prices go up. That isn't "gouging", that's the free market at work ESPECIALLY now with lack of supply due to COVID, along with spike in supply due to (also) COVID, social unrest, and an election year.

I'm sorry you don't want to pay $80/1k primers when they're "usually" $40/1k or $0.60/rd for 115gr FMJ 9mm, but this ain't usual times and if you want something bad enough, you'll pay the *current market price*.

Nailed it.

Once I get this AR build wrapped up and function tested, I'll probably not be shooting a whole lot of ammo in 2021 except burning off the Rem rimfire I want to purge from the stash. This is the storm I was preparing for. I have brass, primers, bullets and powder.

Heck, I might be shooting a lot of Creedmoor just because you can still get 6.5 bullets (sorta) and I've got a good pile of brass and 32# to feed it with. Investing in small primer brass was wise as I don't have more than 1k or so LRPs.

 

[Hohn]

It's not just gun guys. An incredible number of people think manufactured goods grow on trees powered by sunshine, water, and air, or are dug out of the ground like crude oil...things which are in natural abundance. Then, when scarcity occurs and "nature's bounty" bubbling from the Earth is interrupted, it must be the malevolent action of some human trying to "corner" the market, either shutting down production or hiding product so they can gouge people.

Crude oil, Gibson guitars, many things have trained peoples' minds this way.

Many people have no idea how hard it is to staff up a manufacturing plant with people, paid the price the consumer is willing to pay, and keep it running, with absenteeism running what it does today, FMLA (thanks Bill Clinton) and the general attitude of people. The wages the consumer is willing to pay do not generate a large pool of applicants who can pass a background check, _and_ drug test _and_ are willing to show up every day (you need all 3).

Example: couple years back, a manufacturing plant in Lafayette (OK let's call it Subaru) needed to hire 300 additional assembly line workers to support volume growth for introduction of the 2020 Outback model. In the time it took to hire those 300 people, 600 other employees quit. They had to hire 900 people, to net 300. And most applicants will not even show up for the entire orientation class.

Anyway, as unpleasant as this current situation is, sometimes people need reminding that most things don't grow on trees.

This is the inevitable by product of a social welfare state. When you aren't scared as heck that your family will starve or that you will be out on your but, you can't motivate someone to work.

This about it, if someone can get $300 or more a week on unemployment, why would they work for only $450? or $500? That job is only worth $150 or $200 a week because it's the net between working or not working.

If you can't pass a drug test or even show up when you're supposed to and that's not a big deal to your viability as a life form, THIS IS A PROBLEM WE CREATED.

And when a company can't get Americans to dependably show up and work for anything less than $13/hr, wen act all outraged when a company moves overseas where people who daily face starvation will work their butts off for $20 a day.

"Their taking OUR jobs!"

"Only after you rejected them."

 

[DadSmith]

At a gun store in Lafayette yesterday I was told by the owner that the store sold more ammo in 2020 than 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014 combined. Six years of ammo in 1 year.

So glad I saw this coming and made like the ant, even getting back into reloading.

My son asked me why I bought primers and powder everytime I went to the gun store for the last couple of years. I said Election is coming and I'm buying just in case America is dumb enough to vote in Democrat's. Guess what they were and I'm well stocked. Thank you Mr Clinton, Mr. Obama for preparing me for Mr. Biden/Harris years.

 

[edporch]

It's never even crossed my mind that the ammunition manufacturers aren't doing the best they can to get the product out the door for us to buy.
But it's not surprising that ammo, like anything else that's in short supply because of high demand, will always have those who blame it on one kind of "conspiracy" or another.

 

[Hawkeye7br]

I shot with a Sierra tech rep several years ago, and he gave us a tour of their plant during Xmas shutdown/inventory. They only have so many machines with which to make bullets, and they swap out dies and other parts depending on caliber. They make a planned amount of one bullet, then change to another. If there is a government contract to fill, they simply dedicate one line to that and limit others to lesser amounts, or they simply don't run a lesser demand bullet. They depend on raw materials for their lead cores and jackets, and "out of spec" raw materials can create lost time. As others have stated, you can't just increase run time or train people on a moments notice.

There is also an increased participation by shooters. People have rediscovered that shooting is fun. Steel Challenge, NRL, rimfire long range, F-class or similar long range centerfire, all without the restrictions of a 2 week hunting season. And of course the endless Portland, Chicago, New York riots. We even had BLM activists bussed into Terre Haute from Merrillville earlier this year.

So yeah, given ALL of that, there is more demand than ammo makers can keep up with right now. I look for more ammo to be imported in the future.

 

[lrdudley]

A couple of years ago my son stepped into my room and showed me a stack of 1 oz. copper bars he had purchased. "Dad, you need to start investing in precious metals". I reached over and slid one of many small ammo crates out from underneath the bed. "I have been. Just mine are brass and lead". I would venture to guess, that if I were to choose to sell my investment in "Precious Metals", my return on investment would far exceed what his ROI was on the stack of copper bars.

 

[Route 45]

This is the inevitable by product of a social welfare state. When you aren't scared as heck that your family will starve or that you will be out on your but, you can't motivate someone to work.

This about it, if someone can get $300 or more a week on unemployment, why would they work for only $450? or $500? That job is only worth $150 or $200 a week because it's the net between working or not working.

If you can't pass a drug test or even show up when you're supposed to and that's not a big deal to your viability as a life form, THIS IS A PROBLEM WE CREATED.

And when a company can't get Americans to dependably show up and work for anything less than $13/hr, wen act all outraged when a company moves overseas where people who daily face starvation will work their butts off for $20 a day.

"Their taking OUR jobs!"

"Only after you rejected them."

Can you just sign up to draw unemployment? I thought you had to have a job first, then lose the job through no fault of your own. Although I admit, I'm not familiar with the system, as I have never drawn unemployment in my life.

I know there was a special provision for unemployment due to the pandemic, but I thought that money had run its course. And I'm fairly certain that you can't live on unemployment forever. Isn't there a set number of weeks that you can draw?

BTW, $13/hour don't cut it. Seems to me that we used to have a solid middle class where a man could work a job right out of high school and easily provide for a family. What happened?

 

[avboiler11]

BTW, $13/hour don't cut it.

Are we talking entry level? Skilled or unskilled labor? Opportunity for advancement? Overtime?

In "the good old days" you didn't have cable bills, cell phone bills, were lucky to have air conditioning, only had one automobile for your 1100sq ft (or less) home, etc. You also had men, like my grandfather, who got back from WWII and worked three jobs until the day he died to provide for his wife and three children.

 

[gregkl]

There is also an increased participation by shooters.

I have seen this all year at my range. What once used to be seldom used is now fairly busy every time I go. There was even a couple occasions this past summer that there weren't any bays available.

People are definitely using our range more than in the past.

Even now that the weather is turning, there are people out there.

 

[Route 45]

Are we talking entry level? Skilled or unskilled labor? Opportunity for advancement? Overtime?

In "the good old days" you didn't have cable bills, cell phone bills, were lucky to have air conditioning, only had one automobile for your 1100sq ft (or less) home, etc. You also had men, like my grandfather, who got back from WWII and worked three jobs until the day he died to provide for his wife and three children.

My dad was an auto worker, basic production line. Hourly wage for that job in 1970 was around $3.25. That equates to $21.80 an hour today. Those jobs weren't all that difficult to get, no college or specialized schooling required.

We had two automobiles. A car or a station wagon and a pickup truck. We had a couple of motor homes throughout the 1970s and 1980s. Vacations out west every year, and a couple of trips to Disney World. Our house wasn't overly large, but we had enough space, and a 3/4 acre lot in a small town. We didn't have central air conditioning, but then again, neither did anyone else. No cable TV, but that wasn't uncommon back then.

No cell phones, but we had multiple CB radios.

Do you think that you could afford an 1100 sq. ft. house and an automobile, and support a family on $13 an hour today? And in today's job market, try telling someone in a job interview that you don't have a cell phone or a computer and watch them laugh at you and throw your application in the trash.

 

[maxwelhse]

Seems to me that we used to have a solid middle class where a man could work a job right out of high school and easily provide for a family. What happened?

IMHO...

Women* decided they wanted jobs outside of the home, which diluted our workforce by 50%, and dropped the pay by about 50% for everybody.

The math holds up... $13/hr doesn't cut it, but $26 does ($54k/yr)... not too far off of what your daddy used to make straight out of high school.

*I have no problems with women in the workforce or hold any poor opinion of women at all.

 

[lovemywoods]

Many people don't understand how finely-tuned our supply pipeline is in this world. Manufacturers have been so successful at supplying the ever-growing consumer demands that people think the fully stocked grocery stores and retail outlets will always be like that. It doesn't take a large upset to cause major problems in the supply chain.

Inventory is expensive so businesses don't keep much extra "stuff" around. When there is an unforeseen surge of perhaps 5-10% over projected sales, there are shortages. We witnessed that a few years ago with .22 ammo and now with many firearm related supplies. A rumor can cause a temporary shortage if people suddenly buy more toilet paper than normal or everyone in the state tops off their gas tanks in the same weekend.

As to the concern that we've made it enticing to draw welfare or other social supports versus going out and working, I'll offer an old observation. Whatever you subsidize, you get more of; and what you punish, you get less of. I'm not just talking about crops in the field. When not working is subsidized, fewer people work. When working is punished by higher taxes, you get fewer people wanting to work. When having more babies increases the size of your monthly check, you get more babies; etc.

I'll close on a humorous note. One of my favorite quotes from the comedian Maria Bamford (emphasis mine): "My therapist says I'm afraid of success. I guess I could understand that, because after all, fulfilling my potential would REALLY cut into my sitting-around time..."

 

[Ark]

Current profit margin is something like 40+ cents per round on 9mm and 5.56, and ten months later every single round of anything that comes into stock gets immediately bought, mostly by scalpers relisting it for more...and getting it.

Yeah, they're cranking out as much as they possibly can. This is the greatest profit bonanza in the history of firearms. There's no reason for anyone to hold back.

 

[Route 45]

IMHO...

Women* decided they wanted jobs outside of the home, which diluted our workforce by 50%, and dropped the pay by about 50% for everybody.

The math holds up... $13/hr doesn't cut it, but $26 does ($54k/yr)... not too far off of what your daddy used to make straight out of high school.

*I have no problems with women in the workforce or hold any poor opinion of women at all.

Women have always worked outside of the home, at least since the early 1900s. Many occupations are still dominated by women, such as nursing and teaching. The increase in women in the workforce is nowhere near 0% to 50%.

In fact, in 1979 the percentage of women in the workforce was 50.9%. In 2019 it was 57.4%. The lowest percentage I could find was 32.7% of women in the workforce in 1948. So definitely not a 50% increase, even since the end of WWII, and only a 6.5% increase since 1979.

Meanwhile....

https://blog.dol.gov/2017/03/01/12-stats-about-working-women

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat02.htm

https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksh...idays-look-grim-for-millions/?sh=5769bb5a58bc

 

[gregkl]

Many people don't understand how finely-tuned our supply pipeline is in this world. Manufacturers have been so successful at supplying the ever-growing consumer demands that people think the fully stocked grocery stores and retail outlets will always be like that. It doesn't take a large upset to cause major problems in the supply chain.

Inventory is expensive so businesses don't keep much extra "stuff" around. When there is an unforeseen surge of perhaps 5-10% over projected sales, there are shortages. We witnessed that a few years ago with .22 ammo and now with many firearm related supplies. A rumor can cause a temporary shortage if people suddenly buy more toilet paper than normal or everyone in the state tops off their gas tanks in the same weekend.

I'll close on a humorous note. One of my favorite quotes from the comedian Maria Bamford (emphasis mine): "My therapist says I'm afraid of success. I guess I could understand that, because after all, fulfilling my potential would REALLY cut into my sitting-around time..."

And a lot of this is because so many industries have embraced Just In Time (JIT) manufacturing.

Same thing applies to those that don't have ammo. They probably have a JIT attitude. "I'm going to the range this weekend, I need to stop by Wally World and pick up a couple boxes."

 

[maxwelhse]

Women have always worked outside of the home, at least since the early 1900s. Many occupations are still dominated by women, such as nursing and teaching. The increase in women in the workforce is nowhere near 0% to 50%.

Yep, that was a big mistake on my part. I welcome the correction.

But, whenever Ive seen anything about this it's usually from a post WW2 time frame, as are the people that are talking about getting by on Dad's paychecks (so... Boomers are the ones saying it), and I feel like the logic is still fairly sound. The curve flattens out pretty much at the start of my life, and I didn't know many people getting by on Dad's wages growing up, so that's the experience I've got to draw on.

https://www.dol.gov/agencies/wb/dat...n-the-labor-force#civilian-labor-force-by-sex

As for the corporate profits graph, if you want me to ride shotgun in the time machine with you to unwind all the 1990s economic policies behind that chart, I'm ready when you are. We tried to vote our way out of it, but, looks like that isn't going well. I'll gladly accept both as being contributors.