Could We Even Win a Real War

[BugI02]

We could and would win any war that someone else thrust upon us. Hands down, we would stomp anyone who attacked us.

Some of your posting is just hubris, IMO

A simple EMP attack and then leaving us to sort out the mess domestically could easily be more than we could handle. Some estimates rise as high as 2/3

EMP attack could wipe out two-thirds of the US population within a year

At least two-thirds of the American population could perish from starvation, disease and societal collapse within a year following an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. This was according to Dr. Peter Pry, the executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security. Pry warned...

www.militarytech.news

At least two-thirds of the American population could perish from starvation, disease and societal collapse within a year following an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack.

This was according to Dr. Peter Pry, the executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security.

Doing a burn-off on the PRC would do nothing to solve those problems, and in some ways might worsen them. China is currently a near sole source producer of medium and large electrical transformers and some switchgear, and being in a weakened state would only show us how few true friends we have

Be careful what you wish for

 

[Libertarian01]

Some of your posting is just hubris, IMO

A simple EMP attack and then leaving us to sort out the mess domestically could easily be more than we could handle. Some estimates rise as high as 2/3

EMP attack could wipe out two-thirds of the US population within a year

At least two-thirds of the American population could perish from starvation, disease and societal collapse within a year following an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. This was according to Dr. Peter Pry, the executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security. Pry warned...

www.militarytech.news

Doing a burn-off on the PRC would do nothing to solve those problems, and in some ways might worsen them. China is currently a near sole source producer of medium and large electrical transformers and some switchgear, and being in a weakened state would only show us how few true friends we have

Be careful what you wish for

I love science fiction too. It's fun to read.

Who is going to get NEAR launching it without the NSA, CIA, Mossad, or MI6 not finding out first? Then where exactly can they hide this super special weapon that the USS Ford, or Nimitz, or Eisenhower, or Vinson, or Roosevelt, or Lincoln or or or... Couldn't reach out and touch it before it launched?

Note that I have NEVER argued that we couldn't be destroyed by WMDs.

The question is winning a real war, and nothing you posted counters my position in the least.

It isn't hubris. It is reality. Something some of us don't want to accept is that we are the most baddest military on the planet earth, capable of taking on the entire armed forces of the world if we had to and remaining. It is scary. It is also an idea the military, always desperate for more money, wants to undermine at every opportunity.

Regards,

Doug

 

[BugI02]

Who is going to get NEAR launching it without the NSA, CIA, Mossad, or MI6 not finding out first?

DPRK (a client state of the PRC). They launch just about every week, how to tell one has our name on it until it is on the way?

Then where exactly can they hide this super special weapon that the USS Ford, or Nimitz, or Eisenhower, or Vinson, or Roosevelt, or Lincoln or or or... Couldn't reach out and touch it before it launched?

As I mentioned previously; if pre-emption fails, retaliation doesn't improve the situation in any way. All those people still undergo a slow and agonizing death

I'm not aware of any deployed, operational ABM systems capable of intercepting even a simple, non-maneuvering payload like the Norks would use except for the SM3 and Aegis system and I am equally unaware of any sort of picket system by those assets defending sub-orbital space over the US. Forget science fiction, you should remember True Grit and Red Dawn were also Hollywood fiction

MAD assumes all players are rational - and if you want to do the Norks, you will have to take on the PRC anyway

 

[Mij]

Speaking about the EMP effect only!

After reading “One Second After” , then the two follow up’s. I told some of my civil engr friends and one electrical engr acquaintance about it. I found out the effect while real would not have the effect portrayed in some fiction novels.

I then did some old fashioned (actual reading from books) investigation. Published works by real scientists. It seems after the professional individuals gave their talks before Congress, that the appropriate members commissioned some of their own studies. Those works did cause some changes in some manufacturing and some changes to military equipment. But overall there is no need in most instances.

I does appear our electrical infrastructure is somewhat still at risk, but not to the degree some fictional works make it out to be. Most autos will not be effected, a lot of our electric generating capabilities would not be effected. The large sub station transformers are our greatest weakness. We don’t have a stockpile of them, and they are of corse built in China.
And as always this is JMO.


post script: one of the links posted above takes it‘s information from a talk in 2008. Pretty old as technology goes.

 

[BugI02]

 

[FNparabellum]

Yea our ability to kick ass across the world is getting weaker but our ability to endure an invasion from a foreign country is still strong.

 

[Libertarian01]

Regarding an EMP threat I am far more concerned with hardening our core infrastructure against a severe solar storm, aka Carrington Event.

Link: https://www.history.com/news/a-perfect-solar-superstorm-the-1859-carrington-event

I believe from another source I cannot find right now the chances are very high of this occurring in the next 20 years, about 10 - 15%. That's huge when considering the implications. Imagine getting hit by one of these during summer, when all of our refrigerators and freezers go out? in 1859 it set telegraph lines shooting sparks, so not having a computer chip in the freezer wouldn't mean much.

We have eleven (11) super-carriers, with three (3) more on the way. The rest of the world has ZERO (0)! We have the only fleet of stealth bombers in the world, and we're upgrading them to B-21s.

Our submarine fleet is able to reach out and touch someone with submarine launched cruise missiles. I'm ignoring nuclear SLBMs.

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I think there is something in our psyche that makes us feel a need to worry, when we shouldn't. People "worry" about crime, and believe that it's up. In reality, if we look at national crime statistics crime is down across the board almost everywhere, and has been declining since the 1970's. I blame the media for hyping stories beyond their value.

I think some of the worry may be a self-guided distraction. If we're thinking about crime and military weakness and social changes (none of which we can individually fix) then we distract ourselves from fixing the toilet, or the roof that's getting olde, or the kids college fund, or ad infinitum.

In the last year I have become very optimistic for us, for America, for the USA. Most of it is from listening to Peter Zeihan explaining the problems of the world, and keeping our problems in perspective. WE are an exporter of oil! We export food! We are rebuilding our manufacturing ability here at home at a rate higher than WWII. We have problems. These problems are nothing compared to what most of the world is going to face. Our problems are wonderful. They can be fixed and overcome with time and will keep us affluent and safe for generations to come.

China is dying, literally. Their one (1) child policy worked. They import 85% of their fuel, 85% of which comes from the Middle East. They are heavy food importers. They are still suffering from African Swine Flu, even though they claim it's gone.

Russia? Massive alcoholism problems. AIDS. Tuberculosis. I just read today, Oct 15th, that Russia has already sent 16,000 newly "trained" troops to the front lines from the mobilization efforts. I pity them, I really do.

Germany, powerhouse of Europe. Heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas. Now gone. Also in demographic collapse.

Japan is on top economically, industrially, and militarily, but they are heavy food and materials importers.

The United Kingdom can't even get Brexit done. They are heavy importers of raw materials, and fuel.

France will do Okay. They aren't as dumb as the Germans, they never gave up nuclear power. They CAN keep the lights on at a lower price. They can also feed themselves.

Australia and New Zealand will do good. They have a lot of what they need.

We do have problems, but our problems are easily fixable compared to the rest of the world. For the next several decades at least it is going to be the best time in the world to be American, and we are!

Regards,

Doug

 

[Mij]

Myself, I generally think optimism is a good thing. But I’m a realest and I see things as I believe them to be. And I don’t like the way our federal reserve note looks. Or what it is doing to me. Everything else is smoke n mirrors. JMO