Could We Even Win a Real War

[buckwacker]

I don't think it wise to underestimate your enemy. We are swimming in a deluge of propaganda, so I don't know how we could claim with confidence China and\or Russia would be easy pickings for our military. Putin may be following Sun Tzu advice and purposefully appearing weaker than he actually is. You don't think he realizes this is a proxy war? He was a kgb operative, and I'd assume he's mastered the art of deception and propaganda.

My original contention was that we are now too financially leveraged to conduct any sort of protracted conflict against a semi capable state. I mean we struggled to do so effectively with a bunch of goat humpers in Afghanistan. While that might still be true, I think I missed an important distinction: both WWI and WWII required a massive military build up because historically the U.S. saw large standing militaries as a danger to domestic civil liberties. That's not been the case since the end of WWII, so perhaps the original debt\GDP chart isn't as good an indicator of the challenge as I had originally posited.

That being said, any protracted, conventional, state conflict would still require massive expenditures to wage effectively, so the challenge still exists. Replacing expensive high tech ordinance and hardware isn't going to be cheap.

 

[STEEL CORE]

 

[Libertarian01]

I don't think it wise to underestimate your enemy. We are swimming in a deluge of propaganda, so I don't know how we could claim with confidence China and\or Russia would be easy pickings for our military. Putin may be following Sun Tzu advice and purposefully appearing weaker than he actually is. You don't think he realizes this is a proxy war? He was a kgb operative, and I'd assume he's mastered the art of deception and propaganda.

My original contention was that we are now too financially leveraged to conduct any sort of protracted conflict against a semi capable state. I mean we struggled to do so effectively with a bunch of goat humpers in Afghanistan. While that might still be true, I think I missed an important distinction: both WWI and WWII required a massive military build up because historically the U.S. saw large standing militaries as a danger to domestic civil liberties. That's not been the case since the end of WWII, so perhaps the original debt\GDP chart isn't as good an indicator of the challenge as I had originally posited.

That being said, any protracted, conventional, state conflict would still require massive expenditures to wage effectively, so the challenge still exists. Replacing expensive high tech ordinance and hardware isn't going to be cheap.

It is bad to underestimate. It is also silly to overestimate.

There is clear evidence Putin is NOT trying to look weak - he IS weak. Lost the Muskva. His planes refusing to fly into Ukrainian airspace. With American and European weapons be pushed out of areas of Ukraine in weeks what it took him monthes to achieve. Ran out of fuel on first assault. Then ran out of food and soldiers had to walk home. Their level of incompetence is beyond measure.

Maybe he did believe his own propaganda, much to his troops misfortune.

Our finances, as bad as we are, are significantly better than Russia or China's. About 75% of all Chinese loans are paying off other loans. They are in a horrific state. Russia? Yeah... worse.

I entirely agree that weapons are expensive. Sun Tzu was right. However, presume we go to war with China. Okay, we nationalize all of our debt to China. Now we cut many billions of dollars of debt. Oh, goody for us and darn for them.

We can feed ourselves and still export food. We can fuel ourselves and still export oil. We can manufacture everything we need either in USA or Mexico or Canada. Relocating to locally will be a problem, but a good problem.

We have ocean moats to our west and east. We have cold forests to the north and dry deserts to our south. We have the greatest spy apparatus in the world.

Russia can feed itself and fuel itself, but its economy is more screwed up than ours.

China cannot feed itself. China cannot fuel itself. They shouldn't poke the Eagle or the Eagle's friends.

Good post and I agree with it.

My only concern is the social experiments being forced on our military and China’s steady growth towards matching our naval power. The “carrier killer” missiles are also concerning if they truly function as advertised.

Biden is slicing their throat with the sanctions on chips. China cannot make the chips on its own to put into carrier killer missiles, or any other high tech weapons. They need outside help. Biden is killing their ability to move into the 21st century and will probably send them back to the mid 20th soon enough. Xi wants faithful, obedient peasants? He's got them. Newton and Galileo challenged authority. Xi can't abide that so he can't have the knowledge real, independent thinkers bring.



Regards,

Doug

 

[buckwacker]

It is bad to underestimate. It is also silly to overestimate.

There is clear evidence Putin is NOT trying to look weak - he IS weak. Lost the Muskva. His planes refusing to fly into Ukrainian airspace. With American and European weapons be pushed out of areas of Ukraine in weeks what it took him monthes to achieve. Ran out of fuel on first assault. Then ran out of food and soldiers had to walk home. Their level of incompetence is beyond measure.

Maybe he did believe his own propaganda, much to his troops misfortune.

Our finances, as bad as we are, are significantly better than Russia or China's. About 75% of all Chinese loans are paying off other loans. They are in a horrific state. Russia? Yeah... worse.

I entirely agree that weapons are expensive. Sun Tzu was right. However, presume we go to war with China. Okay, we nationalize all of our debt to China. Now we cut many billions of dollars of debt. Oh, goody for us and darn for them.

We can feed ourselves and still export food. We can fuel ourselves and still export oil. We can manufacture everything we need either in USA or Mexico or Canada. Relocating to locally will be a problem, but a good problem.

We have ocean moats to our west and east. We have cold forests to the north and dry deserts to our south. We have the greatest spy apparatus in the world.

Russia can feed itself and fuel itself, but its economy is more screwed up than ours.

China cannot feed itself. China cannot fuel itself. They shouldn't poke the Eagle or the Eagle's friends.



Biden is slicing their throat with the sanctions on chips. China cannot make the chips on its own to put into carrier killer missiles, or any other high tech weapons. They need outside help. Biden is killing their ability to move into the 21st century and will probably send them back to the mid 20th soon enough. Xi wants faithful, obedient peasants? He's got them. Newton and Galileo challenged authority. Xi can't abide that so he can't have the knowledge real, independent thinkers bring.



Regards,

Doug

The colonels opinion in the video in the post below offers a perspective a bit different than that which you hold. I see people in our government and media, that I've learned to distrust because of the volume of their lies and propaganda, saying things similar to what you are saying (no disrespect meant to you). Propaganda is second nature to the government's of Russia and China. So it's truly difficult to ascertain how it would all shake out.

Russia vs. Ukraine Part 2

Saw this today....I had been interested in more details about why Russia went into Ukraine. Thought it was a good listen. Goes straight back to Obama, and Biden. We just can't keep our noses out of crap.....why...I still think its all the lithium and other stuff Biden and stock holders plan to...

www.indianagunowners.com

 

[Expat]

I just saw a TV news story. Apparently someone didn’t make it through the hell week of Seal school. An angry mom has apparently succeeded in getting the Dems to hold hearings on this. So hopefully we can make some real changes so women and the LGBTQ+ can have a shot at becoming Seals.

 

[Mij]

I just saw a TV news story. Apparently someone didn’t make it through the hell week of Seal school. An angry mom has apparently succeeded in getting the Dems to hold hearings on this. So hopefully we can make some real changes so women and the LGBTQ+ can have a shot at becoming Seals.

He made it through, he just didn’t live very long at the end. I believe. Don’t think the armed forces are ready for a real G. I. Jane yet.

 

[Tombs]

I will respect your opinion but attempting to invade a nation of 1.6 billion people with a military of 1.4 million with let’s say 700k actual deployable combat troops probably wouldn’t end well. I hope we never find out. I love my grandchildren. For comparison Iraq’s population was just under 30 million when we invaded.

Interesting article on the 5 nations considered nearly impossible to conquer. USA, Russia and China all make the list. Along with India and Afghanistan.

The 5 countries that are most impossible to conquer

When it comes to having to defend their home turf, some countries are just not going to roll over for any reason. Read more on WATM.

www.wearethemighty.com

It's more about being able to deliver munitions to take out their government and military, rather than sending troops in.

I just don't see them being able to defend against our technology very well.

 

[armalitesheepdog]

Could we? Yes
Would we? No

 

[Mij]

Could we? Yes
Would we? No

Depends on the resolve of the everyday joe and joesephine six pack American.

Seen what can happen if you don’t have the will of the nation at your back.

Read (red) what can be done when you do.

Wars are won and lost at the dinner table. Read (reed) some American history.

On second thought, with Gen. X, Y, Z now the majority of fighting age Americans you mite be rite.

 

[Creedmoor]

I just saw a TV news story. Apparently someone didn’t make it through the hell week of Seal school. An angry mom has apparently succeeded in getting the Dems to hold hearings on this. So hopefully we can make some real changes so women and the LGBTQ+ can have a shot at becoming Seals.

There are private Facebook groups that I joined with my sons being Marines. It amazed me what some parents would say almost on a daliy basis. My son has to work today? Its a 104° in Palms, my sons platoon didnt eat dinner last night and breakfast this morning. My son has blisters on his feet. My son hasn't answered his phone for two weeks, my son has to walk everywhere on base, Its never ending, the young Marines learned quick what not to tell their parents.
Its like Mom, hes fing busy, if he wanted to talk to you he would call.

 

[Mij]

There are private Facebook groups that I joined with my sons being Marines. It amazed me what some parents would say almost on a daliy basis. My son has to work today? Its a 104° in Palms, my sons platoon didnt eat dinner last night and breakfast this morning. My son has blisters on his feet. My son hasn't answered his phone for two weeks, my son has to walk everywhere on base, Its never ending, the young Marines learned quick what not to tell their parents.
Its like Mom, hes fing busy, if he wanted to talk to you he would call.

All Very true, but the young man the story is about did die. After completing the full course. If the initial reporting was correct.

Hoping the best for your young man.

 

[Libertarian01]

We could and would win any war that someone else thrust upon us. Hands down, we would stomp anyone who attacked us.

There are always anecdotal stories about wimpy people in the military today. And the point is...? There were wimpy deserters in a little conflict called the Revolutionary War. Deserters. There were wimps serving in American military forces in 1812. And yet, less than 500 US Marines and naval troops repulsed the entire British force of 4,000 troops several times over the hours before finally capitulating. We had wimps that were afraid to fight in WWI, but almost all of our troops went over the top and took the fight to the Hun. In WWII there were weaker soldiers, but they didn't matter. The bulk majority of the rest landed in Normandy and fought and bled for every scrap of land the Germans tried to hold, and took it from them. US Marines engaged the Japanese in the Pacific and while there were some wimpy marines we still took every island we wanted to. Korea? Kicked butt and took names. Vietnam? No battle was lost.

If people want to talk about how "wimpy" we have become, do they think we are unique? Do they believe that America has a monopoly on wimpy people?

I was told Marines aren't born, they're made. It's true. It's the training and discipline that make soldiers great. We have some of the best training in the world. We have the best equipment.

I live in Fort Wayne. It is named after a chap named General "Mad" Anthony Wayne. He was tasked with suppressing natives that had previously slaughtered the entire American Army. So he raised an army and... Trained them! He trained them for many monthes in Pennsylvania before coming out here. He did not underestimate the natives. He came, he saw, he conquered, with trained and disciplined troops.

Numbers have been proven throughout history to be mostly irrelevant when put up against logistics and command. Boadicea had an army at least 100,000 strong and maybe over 200,000 to throw out the Romans. The Roman general had 10,000 troops, mostly retired legionaries who were now farmers and tradesmen. He had some Germanic light cavalry to protect his flank in the woods. The Romans, outnumbered 10 or 20 to one easily slaughtered Boadicea's forces because they couldn't all hear her speech. They kept peeling away to slaughter the Romans and died.

Sun Tzu talks about terrain. Napoleon spoke of morale. He said, "The moral is to the physical as the three is to the one." Never more true than in the American Civil War. The Union should have crushed the Confederacy, but a man defending his home is worth a helluva lot more than a man taking someone else's home.

The Chinese have a lot of people. So what? They can't bring them to bear all in one place. And if they were stupid enough to do so... Boom!

Now, while we kicked all butts in Iraq and Afghanistan we were bad at holding. We suck at asymmetrical warfare. We don't do well at winning the hearts and minds, especially of a culture we don't understand. We should have pulled out of each of those countries years before we did. Our goals were unattainable and we did not adjust to that. Our methods were not in alignment with strategies that would have done better. Nonetheless, we conquered.

Could we? Absolutely.
Would we? Hell yes!

Semper Fi,

Doug

 

[DadSmith]

While reading through the military recruitment thread, thinking that's bad enough, I started thinking of other challenges to our success in fighting an actual war against another moderately equipped state with a sizeable population. Sovereign debt is near the highest it's ever been, but those other peaks came at the end of years long wars. I don't think we could fund an actual state on state war, without a collapse of our overleveraged government. View attachment 228541

In 10 years i wonder if we'll be a 3rd world country if we maintain the current course we are on.

 

[Timjoebillybob]

And the pic I posted?

This one? Well post basic. And not a fair comparison to a group of pre basic possible recruits.

Todays Infantry Marines are Still Marines.

View attachment 228590

 

[Creedmoor]

This one? Well post basic. And not a fair comparison to a group of pre basic possible recruits.

Ok... Not to far past post basic, most in that platoon were a year or so in. It was there first rotation to Japan- Okinawa, they finished weeks of Jungle Warfare Training and walked back to Camp Gonsalves to lockdown with Covid. They went back into the jungle for another month of school - freedom.
Funny how they thought it would be kool to all have ciggs for the picture.

 

[Timjoebillybob]

Ok... Not to far past post basic, most in that platoon were a year or so in. It was there first rotation to Japan- Okinawa, they finished weeks of Jungle Warfare Training and walked back to Camp Gonsalves to lockdown with Covid. They went back into the jungle for another month of school - freedom.
Funny how they thought it would be kool to all have ciggs for the picture.

Okay. But still post basic and not a fair comparison to a group that couldn't qualify to get into basic. The hair on a couple of them threw me.

 

[Creedmoor]

Okay. But still post basic and not a fair comparison to a group that couldn't qualify to get into basic. The hair on a couple of them threw me.

LOL.. I was having fun.

 

[Timjoebillybob]

LOL.. I was having fun.

I figured. Same here, but the point still stands.

 

[Creedmoor]

I figured. Same here, but the point still stands.

Yes it does.