Coronavirus

[smokingman]

Not so much.The lowest is actually right at 4%The WHO did NOT publicly release the report today as they said they would.The following is in part what was in the report to the WHO from the team who went to China.

China response. Everything they did hinged on testing cases,and finding cases.
Once found.

1.Differentiated approach.Depending on the number of cases in an area.

2.Mobilized all medical workers.Moved them to cases.All workers not just medical
made to feel it was a duty to stop the spread.Non essential work shut down.All non essential business shut down.
Example. 40k additional medical workers sent to Wuhan a city of 15 million.

3. Re-purposed all of government. All jobs changed. Everything became about virus control and getting things where they needed to go.
Example. Department of transportation no longer was in charge of regulating transportation,but providing it in effected quarantine areas.

4.AI and big data used. Cell phones and wechat used to do much of the contract tracing in real time.Where was the now infected person,who had they been in contact with and near.

5.Hospitals. More than 90% converted to nothing but covid-19 treatment.Most non covid-19 medical issues are diagnosed via telecare.

Social distancing. Disinfecting. Hygiene. Sanitation. all the highest priorities. Isolation.

Food distribution. Online ordering and community drops. Has not worked that well,and they are trying to improve it.

Shipping issues from areas.

Almost no cases of non pneumonia cases(those that are asymptomatic transmitters it is a small percent 1:12 minutes into briefing)
Common cases,not in critical care where walking pneumonia.This is around 80% of cases.Many case stay in the category for 2-4 weeks.
Severe cases around 20% need oxygen support,and have a more likely hood of needed mechanical support.Of the 20% in this category most need full time support either oxygen,and in a few days possibly mechanical support.It is a huge number.This is the group that needs the most help.Whole hospitals. Average time in hospital is 4-6 weeks currently.%15 of this group go into critical care.Death rate is around 60% with care. Without enough proper care this rate is much higher.


51 minutes into his briefing,there is a cut in audio.Reuters first and second source of audio conflicting.

At 49-51 minutes he is talking about the new antibody test they have developed in China.

Individual hospitals with 1000 or so patients are using 60+ ventilators and ecmo systems 4+

The doctor says no western hospitals have the scale they do for support. They are moving in even more ventilators and ecmo systems.
They are doing very well at keeping more people alive.This is very different from current practices in the west.We are not prepared.
Doctor says if he gets it he wants treated in China.The mortality rate would be much higher without support.
60 minutes in.

Questions have started from reports.

Rapid Isolation key.We have counted on vaccines,and need to change our mindset to one of isolation and prevention not counting on things like a vaccine to slow the spread.

Being clear of the virus via test is good for 3 days.All workers retested every 3 days to be eligible to work(multiple provinces,but in his example 5 million are already part of that system.)

2 meter distance for all communication when not wearing ppe. They used a room with microphones to talk to each other without PPE,with the translators and everyone sitting one person per table.

If you have a runny nose,it is not covid-19. Less than 4% had any upper respiratory issues. 88% had fever and lower lung issues.
The complications of keeping people alive for weeks is not something we are prepared for.It has kept the death rate lower in China.The Chinese current death rate is around 4%,but that number has been going up over time.

1. Thing to do to prepare(governments and medical systems).Stop thinking it will not appear.Think it will be here tomorrow.

2.You will need beds.You will need to Isolate patients and contacts.

3.You have to have enough ventilators. You have to have to oxygenation ability.

4.You have to have testing ability. You have to have CT scanning capacity.You have to be ready to rapidly respond.

5.Can people ID suspected cases and contact trace rapidly?

6.Talk to the population.Prepare the population.Mask,and PPE will be needing in outbreak areas.As well as supplies and transportation of cases to care.

7.Find out and understand who in government can do what and when,before they have to do it.

8.You will have anxiety and fatigue of many medical workers,and officials. Plan a rotation system to try and give breaks.With hospitalizations lasting weeks not days people will need breaks.Patients of course need psychological support during care.This disease is something no one has ever had to deal with.Helplessness will be a common feeling. It is a battle we should prepare for.

9.Find cases as fast as you can. Having sever cases trip the system by already be critically ill is not going to work.

10.Everyone needs to be ready.No one is.Not psychologically or physically currently(oh but a few are...we are not many,but we exist.My comment not his in brackets).

One scientist on the trip thinks children where spreading this asymptotically. He does not. New antibody test for all children returning to school? They do not know enough yet.

Lower capacity countries will have much higher spread and fatalities. 1:40 in.They simply do not have the ability to have thousands on ventilators.

Smokers did not have a higher instance of disease.But age seems to be a very large factor,older patients recover more poorly.

It does hit all ages. Newborns and infants have died from the disease,other children have survived.It largely depends on care for the younger cases.
He gives an example of a 2 month old where the mother died and the nurses kept the infant in care(tested positive),and they are still surviving.

Test test test. You have to find cases. 300,000 flu samples from one province (taken in January)where retested for covid-19. Only .49% had it,but if they had not found those cases it would have contributed to the spread.

Currently,during this briefing the team has not briefed the WHO. They will be responsible for the release of the report.The WHO is in control of information from the team after this press conference.

I took an open approach to this.

It is a source of raw information.Not something we have seen very often related to covid-19.

I looked for facts and advise he was giving.

I understand the political aspect,and that China failed in some huge ways.But that is not what is import here.I put politics aside,and looked at facts he presented.

To me this was information I,and no one else had seen or heard from someone who had limited exposure to the actual area the largest epidemic had happened in.

It is information that can be used. I did my best to track and glean any information out of the 2+hour briefing and share it here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3TowZyuIxI

That 4% is with Chinese official government stats.All data presented to the team was given by the Chinese government.
The reality is probably higher than 4%,and when a medical system gets hit hard it will be much higher.

It took a few extra days,but here is the official report.
Report of the WHO-China Joint Missionon Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

60 countries have now confirmed cases.(Half of these where added and had zero cases,less than 4 days ago)
Including Mexico (from a cruise ship that was allowed to dock 3 days ago).
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Japan closes all schools until April.
https://www.post-gazette.com/news/h...to-close-all-coronavirus/stories/202002270211

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104

After reading this, I’m convinced by not following the pervasive narrative of “orange man bad”, someone at the AP is cruising for a good firing.

 

[Kutnupe14]

https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104

After reading this, I’m convinced by not following the pervasive narrative of “orange man bad”, someone at the AP is cruising for a good firing.

Inept is more like it. I mean were getting reports that the officials that met with the Americans suffering from coronavirus weren't properly protected. That's bad, pretty dumb actually. Prior to that, the 14 infected were flown from Japan on a plane with 300 other healthy people. Now that's really dumb. And the most idiotic thing above all else, is that the CDC advised against doing that, but were overruled by the State Department.

The 14 coronavirus-stricken Americans evacuated from a cruise ship in Japan were flown back to the US on a plane full of healthy people against advice from the CDC, a report said Thursday.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/20/coron...n-back-to-us-on-plane-full-of-healthy-people/

 

[smokingman]

WHO live.Should start any minute. 2/28/2020 10:08 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX0H3O_Uiec


If you are looking for the who live...go here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMS47w8hAZ8

Well crap.So much for Iceland.That was my backup plan 61 countries now. That is over 30 added in the last 4 days.

https://www.ruv.is/frett/fyrsta-tilfelli-covid-19-greint-a-islandi

Adding this statement. The new case in Iceland is yet another who flew out of Italy. This morning alone I have seen at least 5 cases that flew out of Italy in the last week.
He was not in the defined risk area in Italy,and they are making an effort to track where he was infected.

 

[Cygnus]

Now might be a good time to move to Montana... raise up a crop of dental floss... raisin' it up and waxin' it down...


(Frank Zappa fans will recognize the reference. )

As will Iron Maiden fans! (Or fans who like both to varying degrees)

 

[KellyinAvon]

WHO live.Should start any minute. 2/28/2020 10:08 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX0H3O_Uiec


If you are looking for the who live...go here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMS47w8hAZ8

Well crap.So much for Iceland.That was my backup plan 61 countries now. That is over 30 added in the last 4 days.

https://www.ruv.is/frett/fyrsta-tilfelli-covid-19-greint-a-islandi

Adding this statement. The new case in Iceland is yet another who flew out of Italy. This morning alone I have seen at least 5 cases that flew out of Italy in the last week.
He was not in the defined risk area in Italy,and they are making an effort to track where he was infected.

Not Gunnar!!!

 

[Trigger Time]

Inept is more like it. I mean were getting reports that the officials that met with the Americans suffering from coronavirus weren't properly protected. That's bad, pretty dumb actually. Prior to that, the 14 infected were flown from Japan on a plane with 300 other healthy people. Now that's really dumb. And the most idiotic thing above all else, is that the CDC advised against doing that, but were overruled by the State Department.


https://nypost.com/2020/02/20/coron...n-back-to-us-on-plane-full-of-healthy-people/

Because we have idiots that work in our government. Hell we have Democrats working in this administration trying to sabotage it at every turn. Possibly what happened in Japan. Nothing would surprise me from the left.
The last administration certainly wouldnt have put the same travel bans in place that Trump did early on. Hell they probably would have increased flights from China just to show people that there is nothing to worry about. I'm sure of it.

The majority of Americans are over this "Trump is bad" BS. And aren't buying it. Dems are gonna get stomped in record numbers this November at the polls

 

[nra4ever]

Panic buying in Hawaii

Panic Buying at Costco
https://youtu.be/vtcv24BacUA

 

[smokingman]

The VIX is the highest it has ever been. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix/charts

Dow has been down as much as 1k -928 currently. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

Baltic Dry at 526(near 12 year lows) https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND




Expectation of approximate DOW levels at triggers:circuit breakers that will stop trading.

Level 1 : -1,803.66 = 23,962.98
Level 2 : -3,349.66 = 22,416.98
Level 3 : -5,153.33 = 20,613.31

On a side note.The WHO just said live a pandemic would only be declared if they though every person on earth would be infected.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX0H3O_Uiec

The are never going to let those pandemic bonds to be called.They are doing almost anything to make sure those investors get that 7% return.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-...-push-too-late-for-poor-countries-experts-say
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-painful-problem-with-pandemic-bonds-11582706626

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Inept is more like it. I mean were getting reports that the officials that met with the Americans suffering from coronavirus weren't properly protected. That's bad, pretty dumb actually. Prior to that, the 14 infected were flown from Japan on a plane with 300 other healthy people. Now that's really dumb. And the most idiotic thing above all else, is that the CDC advised against doing that, but were overruled by the State Department.


https://nypost.com/2020/02/20/coron...n-back-to-us-on-plane-full-of-healthy-people/

So...you’re saying Trump should probably get rid of a bunch of life-long employees he probably had no hand in hiring in the first place... I’m ok with that.

 

[JettaKnight]

The VIX is the highest it has ever been. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix/charts

Dow has been down as much as 1k -928 currently. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

Baltic Dry at 526(near 12 year lows) https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

Huh.


Today I Learned That "Baltic Dry" isn't a Latvian baby powder for your bike shorts.

 

[Phase2]

This could go into multiple threads, but it fits here as well as anywhere. While many countries are tightening up border security in the face of COVID-19, Turkey is now allowing/encouraging migration of up to 3.4 million refugees to enter Europe. Thanks Erdogan.

Buses in Istanbul were filmed providing transport to refugees and migrants to the Bulgarian and Greek borders.

 

[smokingman]

[FONT=&amp]

Location	Currently Under Quarantine§	Cases†¶
Travis Air Force Base	149	12
Lackland Air Force Base	134	8
University of Nebraska Medical Center	2	13
Providence Sacred Heart Medical Center	0	4
Medically cleared in Japan	N/A	1
Other‡	0	5
Total	285	43

[/FONT]
Footnotes

[FONT=&amp]† Cases have laboratory confirmation and may or may not have been symptomatic.[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]§ Quarantine information[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]¶ 28 cases first tested positive in Japan and 15 cases first tested positive in the United States.[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]‡ Individual tested positive, was medically cleared by Japan, and released.[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]** Monitored by state or local public health authorities.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

Those are the new cases.We still have....
[/FONT][FONT=&quot]COVID-19: Confirmed Cases in the United States*

Travel-related	12
Person-to-person spread	3
Total confirmed cases	15
Total tested	451

COVID-19: Confirmed Cases in the United States*†

* This table represents cases detected and tested in the United States through U.S. public health surveillance systems since January 21, 2020. It does not include people who returned to the U.S. via State Department-chartered flights.


[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]COVID-19: Cases among Persons Repatriated to the United States

	Positive
Wuhan, China	3
Diamond Princess Cruise Ship†	43

COVID-19: Cases among Persons Repatriated to the United States†

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]COVID-19: Cases and Persons Under Quarantine among Repatriated Persons from Diamond Princess, by Location

[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]

[/FONT]

 

[Phase2]

Today I Learned That "Baltic Dry" isn't a Latvian baby powder for your bike shorts.

Yup. It is a well known index for economics/investing. It measures the costs related to bulk shipping which is a good proxy for overall trade. Obviously, that is being impacted by the China manufacturing and export decline.

 

[smokingman]

Holy crap.

10 year US treasury bond just hit 1.15% That is an all time record low.
That makes this a dollar crisis and such a huge way. Things are basically imploding right now in real time.

Even I am in shock.I watched 2008 live and understood.This is SOOOOO much worse.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y


I hope everyone understands how bad this is.
Before markets open on Monday,they are going to have to do something(or nothing?) if not many(most) banks will be in default by then.

This is a banking crisis as well.That 7 trillion loss is 4 days...well it has a ton of debt being called.

If they do nothing Sunday to bail out banks...Monday is going to be possibly the worst financial shock in history.

 

[nra4ever]

This could go into multiple threads, but it fits here as well as anywhere. While many countries are tightening up border security in the face of COVID-19, Turkey is now allowing/encouraging migration of up to 3.4 million refugees to enter Europe. Thanks Erdogan.

That's because they are basically at war. He wants NATO to help him out. I say let them go at it and winner take all. lets restore the byzantine empire. it's getting ugly over there

 

[Kutnupe14]

That's because they are basically at war. He wants NATO to help him out. I say let them go at it and winner take all. lets restore the byzantine empire. it's getting ugly over there

Putin couldn't have played it any better. He wants Turkey to appeal to NATO.... so NATO (or specifically the United States) can say "no," and thus undermine the entire reason for it's existence.

 

[dusty88]

Much of the public seems to be battling between "this is a very deadly virus" (false) and "you all need to relax; it's no worse than the flu"

I think the truth is it may be about as deadly as a typical flu (or a little worse) but that's not the real problem.

The case fatality rate in China was 2%. Case fatality rate means the % of infected people that die, not the percentage of population.

Case fatality rate might be lower here (China has a dense population and lousy air quality).

However even if the case fatality rate is similar to typical flu viruses (0.1 to 0.5%) that doesn't make this a nothingburger. Some of our society is immune to the flu; most of us are probably not immune to this. If a lot of people get sick in a short time period, hospitals and supply chains and even services can get overwhelmed.

Slowing down the transmission rate by asking people to stay home, possibly canceling some large gatherings etc may slow the transmission rate. If we slow the transmission rate we have time to treat people and also to keep essential people working. Medical providers will discover which treatments are most efficient. We may have a vaccine (though 12 mo is optimistic for a vaccine to be widely available)

Ironically, a little panic might end up helping everyone. If people stay home and slow the transmission of the virus, it might not be so disruptive. It's comparable to Y2K. People say nothing happened. That's true, but businesses with important computer systems took a lot of actions to prevent things from going wrong.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Much of the public seems to be battling between "this is a very deadly virus" (false) and "you all need to relax; it's no worse than the flu"

I think the truth is it may be about as deadly as a typical flu (or a little worse) but that's not the real problem.

The case fatality rate in China was 2%. Case fatality rate means the % of infected people that die, not the percentage of population.

Case fatality rate might be lower here (China has a dense population and lousy air quality).

However even if the case fatality rate is similar to typical flu viruses (0.1 to 0.5%) that doesn't make this a nothingburger. Some of our society is immune to the flu; most of us are probably not immune to this. If a lot of people get sick in a short time period, hospitals and supply chains and even services can get overwhelmed.

Slowing down the transmission rate by asking people to stay home, possibly canceling some large gatherings etc may slow the transmission rate. If we slow the transmission rate we have time to treat people and also to keep essential people working. Medical providers will discover which treatments are most efficient. We may have a vaccine (though 12 mo is optimistic for a vaccine to be widely available)

Ironically, a little panic might end up helping everyone. If people stay home and slow the transmission of the virus, it might not be so disruptive. It's comparable to Y2K. People say nothing happened. That's true, but businesses with important computer systems took a lot of actions to prevent things from going wrong.

This would be a good year for an early spring.

 

[smokingman]

Holy crap.

10 year US treasury bond just hit 1.15% That is an all time record low.
That makes this a dollar crisis and such a huge way. Things are basically imploding right now in real time.

Even I am in shock.I watched 2008 live and understood.This is SOOOOO much worse.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y


I hope everyone understands how bad this is.
Before markets open on Monday,they are going to have to do something(or nothing?) if not many(most) banks will be in default by then.

This is a banking crisis as well.That 7 trillion loss is 4 days...well it has a ton of debt being called.

If they do nothing Sunday to bail out banks...Monday is going to be possibly the worst financial shock in history.

I will put it this way.I am dropping everything and going to go and get my cash out of Chase bank.