Maybe not up there above the arctic circleTheories do not have to be rational.
Maybe not up there above the arctic circleTheories do not have to be rational.
Well, those have been done, and have shown that asymptomatic spread effectively doesn't exist.Considering all of the contract tracing being done, wouldn't a study of actual cases be more beneficial to gauge asymptomatic spread rather then using a model?
Here's an article that includes the London Nightingale "hospital". It is floorspace at the ExCel Convention Centre. As far as I can find, it's not "dismantled" as it has never been "mantled", lol! No beds, no staff, just space...No, this isn't normal at all. This Nightingale hospital is basically shut down while other hospitals nearby are overflowing and treating some patients in the ambulances and parking lots because they are so full. Those hospitals don't have enough beds or staff to deal with the numbers yet this Nightingale hospital is loafing.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9097227/PAUL-BRACCHI-make-sick.html
Well, the NHS is a bit spartan.Here's an article that includes the London Nightingale "hospital". It is floorspace at the ExCel Convention Centre. As far as I can find, it's not "dismantled" as it has never been "mantled", lol! No beds, no staff, just space...
Readily available testing.I am unable to come up with a rational theory for why our worldometers derived CFR is dropping, Germany's is rising and Japan's is staying the same
Here's an article that includes the London Nightingale "hospital". It is floorspace at the ExCel Convention Centre. As far as I can find, it's not "dismantled" as it has never been "mantled", lol! No beds, no staff, just space...
Other Nightingale Hospitals in different parts of UK have been brought online... they are emergency overflow space, not much more until they are equipped, and most critically, staffed, which is the bottleneck according to the article.
ON STAND-BY London’s Nightingale hospital ‘reactivated’ after sitting empty – as NHS staff told to be ‘ready for Covid patients’
Factcheck: yes. Yes it is.Are you sure it isn't the year of the Jackass?
Are you having some fun at our expense seeing who will recognize .30/06 converted to metric?
I stand corrected... the Sun article indicated incorrectly that the facility had not been used. It had been used in the Spring, treating 51 patients, before closing in May... so it was "dismantled".?!? Are you being disingenuous on purpose?
Of course it was "mantled". That is the whole point of it.
They spent a ton of money on it and treated just over 50 patients and now it is vacant when they say other hospitals are supposedly overflowing. It cost about $1M for each patient treated there. Kind of a good example of funny thinking.
https://www.google.com/search?q=nig...WSB80KHQvoCxMQ_AUoAnoECAMQBA&biw=1323&bih=949
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-take-a-look-inside-nhs-nightingale.html
That doesn't explain why Germany's CFR is rising and Japan's is stagnantReadily available testing.
When testing was scarce and only the most severe/critical symptomatic cases were being tested, those most likely to prove fatal, it skewed the CFR far higher than reality.
With near "universally available" testing, the CFR should trend towards the IFR which IIRC was 0.5-1%.
Because fatalities lag new cases....significantly... by 4 to 8 weeks. Just look at the lag between the summer cases peak and fatalities peak in Japan, for example.That doesn't explain why Germany's CFR is rising and Japan's is stagnant
Computing CFR with worldometers data is useful as a cross-comparison as all values are derived via the same technique so any systematic error should cancel outBecause fatalities lag new cases....significantly... by 4 to 8 weeks. Just look at the lag between the summer cases peak and fatalities peak in Japan, for example.
Germany's cases have (mostly) plateaued for more than that 4-8 week lag, so the fatalities from the earlier cases are "catching up".
Japan's cases are in an upward spike that is much higher than any previous in that country. The fatalities for today's record number of cases, for example, will not show up for another 4-8 weeks... so it "waters down" the CFR, today, while cases are surging.
Computing CFR using current case totals and current fatality totals would only be accurate if COVID was fatal instantly after testing positive. It's just how the math works with two series that have time lag between them.
ETA: the correct way to compute CFR would be to track each individual case until that case resolves to either recovery or fatality. You don't get that with the raw numbers.
Well, let's see... US population is 328.2M, Japan's is 126.3M.Computing CFR with worldometers data is useful as a cross-comparison as all values are derived via the same technique so any systematic error should cancel out
I just think it funny that Japan, the poster child for the masketeers, can't seem to make any headway and all factors being equal will be passed by the US ~10 Feb 21
T, I agree... the ICU stat I track is percent used for COVID, which is currently down to 26% from a high/peak of ~45% about a month ago. Also, hospital COVID census definitely peaked and is trending (slowly) down.Heya Hough (and others) - I know you were tracking the ICU availability and it looks like its been pretty stable the last few days at ~25% available. That's a good trend. Also, it looks like the hospitalizations are trending down.
Seems like Indiana is moving in the right direction.
Cool.T, I agree... the ICU stat I track is percent used for COVID, which is currently down to 26% from a high/peak of ~45% about a month ago. Also, hospital COVID census definitely peaked and is trending (slowly) down.
I'll do one of my full posts on the stats this weekend when I have time. By then, we'll see if the Christmas peak in cases has fully subsided, as it appears.
On that, the worldometers sourcing for serious/critical is still a black box for me. I just don't know how they get it.Not sure how the hospital mortality relates to the metrics you quoted.
SoCal, (like NYC that early "flatten the curve" campaigns were based off of), has suffered a decades long bed shortage. Their current situation is due to consistent failures of their own making.Cool.
For as good as we Hoosiers are doing, nationally, things are not good. Which means there are some places in the US doing very poorly. From what I can tell, the population centers in SoCal are really bad.
We're still (nationally) in exponential growth of deaths, and the CFR rate is still decreasing, but at a pretty flat rate - currently at ~1.67%.
One other item of note: the overall critical-death calculation (daily deaths/daily critical) is ~7.5%. The rolling 7 day average is nearly 12%. That suggests (at least to me) that the virus, at least in certain locales, is more difficult to treat right now. The 2 natural suppositions are that it is something about the virus or something about the care that is different. Maybe some of both.