2021 shortages

[firecadet613]

Make you wonder why so many pulling the strings with lockdowns, mandates and fear tactics could not see this coming? Yet is was quite obvious to those with supply chain understanding? Why have we fallen for all of this?

Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures - Nature Human Behaviour

Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on global supply chains. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns.

www.nature.com

How COVID-19 impacted supply chains and what comes next

Research shows severe disruption through the pandemic is driving enterprises to make their supply chains more resilient, collaborative and networked.

www.ey.com

The Global Impact Of COVID-19 Lockdowns To Supply Chains in 2020 Yet to Be…

While global supply chain managers are still dealing with new Pandemic…

www.scmr.com

I've been seeing / saying this for over a year....it has mostly fallen on deaf ears though...

 

[JeepHammer]

Tv news reported just now that Costco is going to limit paper and cleaning supplies. This could trigger another panic spree.

OH! The HUMANITY!

You mean people might have to use CLOTH towels, diapers, and actually WASH them?
They might have to use actual plates, cups and WASH THEM?

I still remember the nails on the outhouse wall with rags, and the bucket with bleach water in it...
Corn cobs/husks, raw paper magazines & catalogs...

I'm pretty sure I'll survive a momentary shortage without hoarding, but then again with a septic system, and no curbside trash pickup, we don't dump a bunch of unnecessary paper/disposable crap.

Wife has a cloths washer, the shop has a rag washer.
Saves a lot of time and money importing that single use consumer crap,

Although biodegradable (septic safe) TP is nice, human life is possible without it...

 

[JeepHammer]

The ports are full. There is a lack of chassis to move the containers from the port and rail delays on top of that. Can't unload a ship if they are out of room to put the containers...

They are quickly expanding hours to 24/7 pickup....and my guess is they will be 24/7 soon!

Ports are full, but not for the reasons you think...
They are full of sneakers, fidget spinners, selfie sticks, etc.

Failure to build anything in the US,
Failure by US to build more docks (processing equipment, trained people, wages that haven't increased in decades)

Plugged up with needless crap left by 'Consumer' business when the recession/COVID happened...

The insane choice to crack down on emissions of 4 million big trucks rather than going after 10s of millions of gas guzzling clunkers,

US truck drivers haven't had a raise since Reagan deregulated trucking and 29¢ a mile cutthroat companies took over the market...

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Is this all due to shortage of experienced dockhands? Been wondering that for a while.

"All" is a bit much, but it's certainly not helping. Good logistics are invisible. Military guys can attest to that. When beans, bullets, and boots show up on time nobody notices because it's expected. A snag in logistics, though, woof.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

I knew it was entrapment! You sir, are an expert!

apply purple as needed

ditcherman is simply pawn in game of life. Or was that Mongo? Either way I'm saddened that Blazing Saddles isn't on Hulu or Netflix. What we talking about? Squirrels?

 

[JTScribe]

This was pointed out on another forum:

Record shattered: 73 container ships stuck waiting off California

Supply chain crisis deepens as more imports snared in historic ship queue off Los Angeles/Long Beach.

www.freightwaves.com

Summary: Ports are a major chokepoint. Ships are stacked up waiting to unload. When it's their turn to unload it's taking days longer to unload then it used to.

Obviously ships that are idle for much longer are out of the rotation to transport goods for much longer, so this is effectively the same as sinking a bunch of the commercial fleet.

Also, shipping companies go where they make more money. They don't make as much money if their ships are idle. So, they stop taking contracts to ports that waste their time, like CA.

A shortage of experienced dockhands then creates a huge ripple throughout the supply chain due to that spiral.

The chokepoint is mostly from Long Beach due to the asinine Covid restrictions for the crane operators. Mandatory quarantine for 10 days after any potential contact - for people that work hundreds of feet in the air, alone.

 

[Bugzilla]

Understatement.
I have detested the thought of JIT since I first heard of it.
I knew it would come to this! (Ok maybe I got lucky)
When I buy a piece of equipment I want my shelves full of all wear parts and anything remotely predictable to break. Happy to pay the price to make that happen. JIT is just capitalist greed trumping customer service.
For me, Deere and Napa have done an excellent job IMO of setting up systems to have stuff next day. It was extremely annoying at first, but we all got used to it and everyone knows if you go down you won’t be back up til tomorrow. We got used to it. Those days may be coming to an end, we may need to get used to something else now.

There have been many times when I wished I could get revenge on the pinhead in the swivel seat in his office for inventing/implementing JIT. Maybe someday his time will come.

But don’t worry, you’ll get used to it.

I believe Harley Davidson was one who drove this when they went public from AMF ownership. They describe this in the book Well Made in America, The Harley Davidson Story.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

The chokepoint is mostly from Long Beach due to the asinine Covid restrictions for the crane operators. Mandatory quarantine for 10 days after any potential contact - for people that work hundreds of feet in the air, alone.

Sounds like there's also a shortage of dockhands and they can't spool up to 24 hour operations.

 

[Leadeye]

Things like JIT came over with the Japanese in the 80s. Back then everybody was trying to figure out their secret, understanding strange words like Kaizen and Kanban, but a lot of it came straight out of Dr. Deming's philosophy and 14 points.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Things like JIT came over with the Japanese in the 80s. Back then everybody was trying to figure out their secret, understanding strange words like Kaizen and Kanban, but a lot of it came straight out of Dr. Deming's philosophy and 14 points.

There is, perhaps, some level of irony that I was taught the Deming method (invented by an American, put to good effect in Japan) by a German born professor (who was also a retired full bird colonel from the US Army). I'm not sure that level is, but globalization something something something.

 

[Leadeye]

There is, perhaps, some level of irony that I was taught the Deming method (invented by an American, put to good effect in Japan) by a German born professor (who was also a retired full bird colonel from the US Army). I'm not sure that level is, but globalization something something something.

I'm a long disciple of the Deming methods, the company I was working for in the 80s did very well by embracing them. It was a new experience and I even had to learn some Japanese language and customs to understand well enough, but I count myself lucky for the experience.

 

[JeepHammer]

I don't want to make anybody uncomfortable and get banned again...

You might have a look outside the US.
Ships are piled up in China ports also.
They can't make the containers fast enough to get those ships reloaded and turned back this way.

Shortage of containers in China, surplus of containers in countries with trade imbalance with China.
No one will ship EMPTY containers back to China, so they pile up around the world...

Even with restricted flow of goods, the US ports can't handle what's coming in,
And the ports can't clear it out fast enough.

So, I'm *Hoping* the price of good used (one trip) containers will drop soon.
Nothing quite like a shipping container for solid storage with decent security.
(If you don't live in a HOA!)

 

[bwframe]

Last-minute Menu: Food supply chain issues impacting several central Indiana schools

GREENFIELD, Ind. — Several central Indiana schools are being forced to make last-minute menu changes as some of their popular school lunch options are not showing up on delivery day. “Today’s menu …

fox59.com

 

[firecadet613]

I don't want to make anybody uncomfortable and get banned again...

You might have a look outside the US.
Ships are piled up in China ports also.
They can't make the containers fast enough to get those ships reloaded and turned back this way.

Shortage of containers in China, surplus of containers in countries with trade imbalance with China.
No one will ship EMPTY containers back to China, so they pile up around the world...

Even with restricted flow of goods, the US ports can't handle what's coming in,
And the ports can't clear it out fast enough.

So, I'm *Hoping* the price of good used (one trip) containers will drop soon.
Nothing quite like a shipping container for solid storage with decent security.
(If you don't live in a HOA!)

Containers used to go back, some full, some not. The issue now is the shipping Asia to the US is so profitable, they are not waiting to load this ships back up, but sailing back empty...

A $1,600 shipment, late 2019, is now upwards of $20,000, IF you can find space. And that is just the ocean part...

 

[d.kaufman]

T

Last-minute Menu: Food supply chain issues impacting several central Indiana schools

GREENFIELD, Ind. — Several central Indiana schools are being forced to make last-minute menu changes as some of their popular school lunch options are not showing up on delivery day. “Today’s menu …

fox59.com

This has been going on in our school district since the first full week of school.

 

[bwframe]

Hammer and Nigel discussing local school closures due to bus driver shortage right now...

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tunein.com

Pike Township Schools bus drivers' walkout forces district into e-learning

Pike Township Schools declared an e-learning day for all students Monday.

www.wishtv.com

 

[Magyars]

Just read an article about potential energy shortages in UK / Europe
NG. Oil, etc.
The article stated if it's a bad winter people are in big trouble.
Wonder when it hits our shores?

 

[Wolfhound]

Just read an article about potential energy shortages in UK / Europe
NG. Oil, etc.
The article stated if it's a bad winter people are in big trouble.
Wonder when it hits our shores?

Yeah, it’s not looking good.

Europe Crisis to Spread to Rest of World.

 

[ditcherman]

The chokepoint is mostly from Long Beach due to the asinine Covid restrictions for the crane operators. Mandatory quarantine for 10 days after any potential contact - for people that work hundreds of feet in the air, alone.

It’s the illogical stuff like this that drives me to think that there’s something bigger, something nefarious going on. And then I get called true believer, radical, and a pawn.
In normal times someone would stop this foolishness.

 

[JeepHammer]

Just read an article about potential energy shortages in UK / Europe
NG. Oil, etc.
The article stated if it's a bad winter people are in big trouble.
Wonder when it hits our shores?

Already has, we just lucked out last winter.
DOT took all regulations off energy haulers and encouraged up to 18 hour days for drivers...
The good news is we didn't have the 'Polar Vortex' the atmosphere set up for but never triggered.

Now, if we have a winter or two like we had about 10 years ago, things will go entirely different...

Its not like pressure bottle manufacturers can crank out 20,000+ trailers overnight with shortages of steel, rubber, hoses etc.

I'm pretty happy I have a propane boiler (radiant floor heat, earth sheltered house, never gets below 62°F),
I also have an auto feed corn/wood pellet boiler. You do have to haul ashes, but it beats getting up every 2-3 hours to stoke the fire box.

Push comes to shove, I'll fire up the wood burning cook stove.
Its been a 'Decorator' piece in the great room for about 15 years, but it's functional, the chimney is the front support for the house roof.

It will stink for a while burning off rust & paint, it will be a pain in the butt, but it's 'Plan C' around here.