2021 shortages

[ditcherman]

If you need something in the next year and can afford it, buy it now. The shortages (across all industries) will only get worse...

Been doing that for the last year intensively, but could never be completely done. Except my philosophy was, whether I could afford it or not…

Went to Napa yesterday, they said they had no semi batteries and didn’t know when they’d get any. Small town Napa, harvest, and no truck batteries.

 

[04FXSTS]

local Tavern has had hog nuts and/or catfish for 30 years but the last two times we went there were no hog nuts. They say they have tried to get them even from new suppliers to no avail. I mean that is something you would never expect to be in short supply as long as they are still killing hogs for food. Jim.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

local Tavern has had hog nuts and/or catfish for 30 years but the last two times we went there were no hog nuts. They say they have tried to get them even from new suppliers to no avail. I mean that is something you would never expect to be in short supply as long as they are still killing hogs for food. Jim.

Sadly, these days, the hogs aren't the only ones having a shortage of balls.

 

[rooster]

China cutting factory production because of power shortages.

China’s Power Cuts Widen Amid Shortages and Climate Push

Power rationing and forced cuts to factory production in China are widening amid electricity supply issues and a push to enforce environmental regulations.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Bugzilla]

We’ve been working at getting a 6 month supply of food, medicine, everything else we would need. First in first out on the food, so just upping the normal stock. Ammo is much greater than 6 month.

 

[Ark]

Sure seems like this is a lot bigger than the coof. Americans just don't want to do jobs like driving trucks and working in warehouses anymore, even though a trucker can spend 2 weeks in CDL school and make $60,000+ the first year. We just don't seem interested in doing any jobs that aren't performed at home on a laptop in our underwear.

Of course, this all suits the Great Reset people just fine. Shortages train the sheep to expect less overall prosperity.

 

[rooster]

Sure seems like this is a lot bigger than the coof. Americans just don't want to do jobs like driving trucks and working in warehouses anymore

I’ve got a thought on this angle . Are we are seeing the results of no one pushing trades or manual labor to HS kids for the last 20 years combined with a bloating of corporate structures?

I mean what kind of real value are all these work from home masses bringing to the economy? They aren’t producing a real feel it in your hands good or product. Sure some are producing digital products but those don’t stock the shelves.

 

[ditcherman]

I’ve got a thought on this angle . Are we are seeing the results of no one pushing trades or manual labor to HS kids for the last 20 years combined with a bloating of corporate structures?

I mean what kind of real value are all these work from home masses bringing to the economy? They aren’t producing a real feel it in your hands good or product. Sure some are producing digital products but those don’t stock the shelves.

I think it seems like it’s happened to quickly for it to be a result of a 20 year trend. Besides, the trades have seen somewhat of a resurgence in popularity with things like Mike Rowe Works, and the cost of college so high. But mostly just seems like we turned on a dime here.

 

[JeepHammer]

seems like most of the gas stations have stopped stocking cold drinks of all kinds. Started with energy drinks not being stocked and now it seems everywhere I stop is short on everything.

Anyone notice anything else in dwindling supply?

Bread/baked goods, meat, milk, eggs, in the grocery stores...

Canned goods are slowing down, Red Gold tomato company couldn't get enough cans to get everything processed this year, for example.

Imports like cloths are slowing way down, 2-1/2 years of containers backed up at customs ports,
Container delivery companies are giving away container trailer frames to anyone with a truck that will sign a contract.

California suspended their clean air standards for out of state trucks when hauling containers out of state.
That will strand the container out of state, and that's driving up shipping costs having to buy a new container everytime.
(Might drive price of used containers down in this country)

Out head of DOT has just made the statement big truck regulation is a 'Black Hole' and intends to 'increase enforcement'.
She quotes the increase in auto-truck accidents, deaths & injury.
While the insurance companies say the fault is still entirely 85% the fault of the car driver...

And this while the vehicle weight & hours of service rules suspend by DOT during COVID emergency, still no dramatic increase in fault of CMV drivers, just more stupid stuff done by car drivers & resulting law suits.

Indiana fell WAY behind in CMV write-ups and is now cracking down like crazy to catch up, trying to get in on that infrastructure money from the feds...
Ask any truck driver about increased police cracking down on CMVs...

The 'Baby Boomer' generation of truck drivers are retiring, and that has lead to at least 3 big companies recruiting from prisons to find butts to put in the seats...
No one wants to put up with infantile car drivers, overbearing police filling ticket quotas, shippers & receivers short on staff taking all day to load/unload...
The driver generally only gets paid when the wheels are turning, so they are starving sitting still...

I was working part time delivering fresh meat, I quit last week.
That's between 180,000 & 200,000 meat meals per trip, which was 4-5 per week.
Someone else can feed those people, I'm sick of it...

I just don't need the 9-10 hours late out of the dock, 650-700 miles a day of idiot car drivers, then 9-10 hours of waiting to get unloaded because the shipper/receiver is at 1/3 worker strength...

And let's not forget the insane increases in insurance, fuel costs, shortage of replacement parts to keep the vehicle up, etc.
(3 months for a water pump for example)

Entitlement is absolute,
We'll see how that goes...

 

[armalitesheepdog]

Sure seems like this is a lot bigger than the coof. Americans just don't want to do jobs like driving trucks and working in warehouses anymore, even though a trucker can spend 2 weeks in CDL school and make $60,000+ the first year. We just don't seem interested in doing any jobs that aren't performed at home on a laptop in our underwear.

Of course, this all suits the Great Reset people just fine. Shortages train the sheep to expect less overall prosperity.

There is one group of people willing to drive trucks. Indians..(from India) and many middle east types
Where I work the trucks that come in at one time were all your stereotypical American Truckers. Now 60% are foreign born that can barely and I mean barely speak English. I'm not raging on anyone who wants to work but what happened there??

 

[Keith_Indy]

I’ve got a thought on this angle . Are we are seeing the results of no one pushing trades or manual labor to HS kids for the last 20 years combined with a bloating of corporate structures?

I mean what kind of real value are all these work from home masses bringing to the economy? They aren’t producing a real feel it in your hands good or product. Sure some are producing digital products but those don’t stock the shelves.

My 21yo son is happy in his manual labor job, works picking up documents from all over the state for scanning and destruction.

I’ve had a sit in my butt software development job my whole career. Currently in a company making software for government units in Indiana.

we really short changed ourselves as a country with the push towards everyone needs a degree to make decent money. The trade jobs aren’t going away put the interest in them is. So, we import the labor for that and the young guys normally being sent to trade school are hooked on drugs and video games.

 

[JJ6187]

I feel like it’s a massive collaboration of events that just so happen to fall like dominos. Manufacturing is done on a projected scale in general. They produce what they think will be needed. Add in the shut downs of Covid and massive stockpiling people did last year, that ate up a bunch of what was on reserve. Had that been the only issue then it would have self corrected by now. But you throw in the ship getting stuck causing shipping delays, another round of Covid, and everything else that’s been happening plus people never stopped buying what they can and we’ll. You end up where we are. I feel like we still have a ways to go before things stablilize back out. I know in the construction department, people kept building houses regardless of if they were running out of materials or not leading to a massive shortage and price hike of almost everything building related. Don’t forget all the money that the government has thrown out allowing those who normally couldn’t afford T-bone steaks to buy a whole shelf of them….

 

[jwamplerusa]

The restaurants here one day won't have cups, another day they have no eggs, another day it's something else. Always something.

Just like you stood in the lines to get meat in the USSR.

 

[jwamplerusa]

I'm not raging on anyone who wants to work but what happened there??

Immigrants who wish to partake in the American dream, have typically been willing to work. Not just work to fill their belly, but to build a better life for their children than they had.

 

[manifest destiny]

JIT has it's own achilles. Business' used to advertise their ability to have deep stock. It was a sales pitch. Stack em deep.... Business' also used to specialize a bit more. Thread and milk weren't sold at the same place. In comes Big Box Store concepts coupled with JIT. Thread, milk and tires all sold at the same store 24hrs everyday. There's always been runs on merch. Beanie Babies, Nintendo, etc. This current shortage of all things all at once doesn't feel organic.

 

[ditcherman]

JIT has it's own achilles.

Understatement.
I have detested the thought of JIT since I first heard of it.
I knew it would come to this! (Ok maybe I got lucky)
When I buy a piece of equipment I want my shelves full of all wear parts and anything remotely predictable to break. Happy to pay the price to make that happen. JIT is just capitalist greed trumping customer service.
For me, Deere and Napa have done an excellent job IMO of setting up systems to have stuff next day. It was extremely annoying at first, but we all got used to it and everyone knows if you go down you won’t be back up til tomorrow. We got used to it. Those days may be coming to an end, we may need to get used to something else now.

There have been many times when I wished I could get revenge on the pinhead in the swivel seat in his office for inventing/implementing JIT. Maybe someday his time will come.

But don’t worry, you’ll get used to it.

 

[Ark]

JIT has it's own achilles. Business' used to advertise their ability to have deep stock. It was a sales pitch. Stack em deep.... Business' also used to specialize a bit more. Thread and milk weren't sold at the same place. In comes Big Box Store concepts coupled with JIT. Thread, milk and tires all sold at the same store 24hrs everyday. There's always been runs on merch. Beanie Babies, Nintendo, etc. This current shortage of all things all at once doesn't feel organic.

The JIT issue is for sure a contributing factor. Not the only one, but it's behind some of the massive over-reliance on warehouses and truckers to run every single day and stock the store just enough to get through a regular business day. As we saw last spring, as soon as the sheep get panicky, everything evaporates from the shelves and stays that way. That's bad enough, but it doubles up on top of the distribution issues. So the shelves get hit from both sides, with zero back stock to buffer it.

But really, I don't think the corporations are even interested in fixing it. Just let the prices rise to curb demand, and send customers home empty-handed because screw 'em, you're Walmart and you put all the competitors out of business two decades ago.

 

[snapping turtle]

Stocked and loaded.

debit Reduction is weird right now, if I have to have it or use it regularly is it better to buy now while one can get it before inflation hits them. Pay off debit with pre inflationary dollars or pay off debt with inflationary dollars. Turns my normal thinking around. I have been doing debit reduction and spendIng on future items at the same time for now. at what time does the idea of buy it now outweigh the later. 11 precent inflation of normal purchases is what the spreadsheet says and we are near that level.

 

[ditcherman]

Stocked and loaded.

debit Reduction is weird right now, if I have to have it or use it regularly is it better to buy now while one can get it before inflation hits them. Pay off debit with pre inflationary dollars or pay off debt with inflationary dollars. Turns my normal thinking around. I have been doing debit reduction and spendIng on future items at the same time for now. at what time does the idea of buy it now outweigh the later. 11 precent inflation of normal purchases is what the spreadsheet says and we are near that level.

It’s a great time to borrow fixed rate money for something that provides a return. It’s never a good time to borrow for consumer items, unless, as you’re exploring here, you can sort of justify a return compared to not having it.

A friend on here told me last winter if you want something, buy it now. Been driving my wife nuts looking for auction bargains.

 

[snapping turtle]

I am not talking spending interest rate money on consumer items more regular paycheck money that in the past went to debt reduction.

Just buy an extra furnace filter when I order one already. Add an extra 6 items when they are on sale now knowing I will use them within the year. knowing I need an outbuilding and getting stuff now when I see a good deal.

i have near zero debit outside mortgage payments. Not even a car payment at the moment.