Let's take Gallup poll numbers for party affiliation last year.
Over 40% of respondents identified as independent. That is a lot in my book.
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Few Americans Who Identify As Independent Are Actually Independent. That’s Really Bad For Politics.
If you’ve ever been in a conversation about politics, you’ve probably heard someone say, “I don’t like either party” or “Politics is just so ugly these days.” T…
fivethirtyeight.com
The problem is that few independents are actually independent. Roughly 3 in 4 independents still lean toward one of the two major political parties, and studies show that these voters aren’t all that different from the voters in the party they lean toward. Independents who lean toward a party also tend to back that party at almost the same rate as openly partisan voters.
“Independents tend not to look all that different from partisans,” said Samara Klar, a political scientist at the University of Arizona and co-author of the book “Independent Politics.” “But they do tend to be more averse to identifying themselves as a partisan when there is a negative stigma associated with partisanship. So, it’s really the arguments, the hostility, the negativity that seems to be driving this behavior.”
That sounds counterintuitive given how many more Americans are identifying as independent, but remember that most aren’t actually independent. Independents are still voting largely for one of the two major parties; they’re just refusing to affiliate with them publicly.