SHTF: Phases of unfolding disaster?

[Spear Dane]

Some of the comments in my liquor thread inspired me to post this.
I've never seen anything written on this but I've thought about it some and believe a major SHTF situation will have several phases. My thoughts are as follows and I'm looking for others ideas on how they believe things will unfold.

The beginning would last a few days. Say 1-3? (Yes one is not a few, I know.) This is the "in shock" phase, one massive 'Whiskey Tango Foxtrot' moment. People stay at home, waiting on the government to (fail to) fix things. They still have food and water.

Roving Hoards Phase: Gas, food, water are gone, store shelves empty, reality sets in and people start turning on each other. EMA/Medical services falter/fail as most/all of those people look to their own families. National Guard is out but totally overwhelmed and probably will suffer a lot of absence as well. Things progressively get uglier as time goes by and people fight over diminishing resources. Massive deaths from disease, violence and hunger. Weeks long. Maybe 2 months?


Survived the washout phase: So after a month or two of general horror things have calmed a bit. Old communities and social circles have been destroyed and new ones arise based on ability to work and contribute to survival of the whole and not be an asshat while doing it. I'm not talking communes, although I expect there will be a lot of that. More like early America where people live their own lives but come together for trade and common defense.


Recovery: As it says, a slow steady progression towards a 'new normal' as the government resumes it's role.

So, as I said I'm looking for discussion on this. How do you think a national or regional major SHTF situation would play out?

 

[pudly]

You need to define your disaster. Dealing with a virulent epidemic is very different from dealing with a nuclear plant accident in your area. The most likely ones tend to be the most localized. Losing your job at least once in your life is much more likely than an major EMP. A winter storm that knocks out power and ices you and your neighbors in for three days is a lot more likely than an earthquake in Indiana. Although larger disasters are certainly possible, preparing to handle smaller ones almost always helps you cope with the larger ones as well.

How well do you know your neighbors? Have you made an effort to befriend them? Build community. Groups will survive far better than the loner as they will be able to help each other, share resources and watch each others backs. Learn skills that can help you during tough times. Can you repair your own home when things break? Do you have supplies stocked and/or are you do you have the means to produce more? Desperate times can be transient. If you are one of those who kills and thieves your way through it and actually survives, expect justice to be harsh when things improve.

Learn about real prepping and disasters and gain skills as soon as possible. You will have a hard time coming up to speed after disaster hits. Listen to the Survival Podcast, read one or both books by Fernando Aguirre about his real survival experiences during and after economic collapse in Argentina. You will learn that survival isn't about Mad Max. It is about developing a more resilient life.

 

[SSGSAD]

Just look at Katrina, a mess from start to finish .....

Oh, wait, is it finished yet ?????

 

[newdave61]

You will learn that survival isn't about Mad Max. It is about developing a more resilient life.

THIS.

I think an armageddon style collapse is unlikely in the extreme. Building a self-sufficient lifestyle and being able to provide for yourself and others is the best tactic for any scenario, no matter how extended a time frame. The more valuable you are to yourself, the more valuable you will be to others.

 

[Leadeye]

Meh, trouble will be in the city and most people will simply go to the sports arena and start dying. I wouldn't expect groups of troublemakers to be very large, it would take an exceptionally strong personality to hold a large group together and those types of people aren't common.

 

[6mm Shoot]

It is claimed that the shelves will be bare in less than a week if things fall apart. That will put people that are living week to week between you and a meal. It is claimed that 48% of us are two pay checks from being out on the street. That would put 48% of us looking for food for our loved ones and our selves. In my eye that makes them very dangerous.

Most everyone is concerned about FEMA work camps. I hope the government is smart enough to set up some sort of camps to feed the 48% that is in real trouble. Because if they don't we will have to deal with them.

Now I don't know about you but I will do what ever I have to feed my own and protect them. I have the property to grow food, guns to protect it and mine. I have stocked food, seed, ammo and much more to protect mine. Everyone in the family knows to come here if there is trouble. No one is going to make it on their own.

Every one talks about bugging out. I can see you moving out of the city if that is where you live. Other than that why would you want to hit the road for the unknown? You can stay where you know the people around you and the area. The people you hang with could band together to work things out. This magical place that you are going to bug out to has people that live their. Do you think they are going to be glad to see you? There is limited food, water and other needed supplies in any area you would bug out to. The only way you will be welcomed is if you can provide something they need. No one wants an extra mouth to feed that don't produce.

We will say in half the country the grid went down. Do you think in the half of the country that the grid didn't go down will want to take in the other half of the country? If you come with money to buy land and make a stake yes. If you come with a hand out asking for help. Hell No. Look in the news at the people running out of their homes to get away from the war and how they are being treated. Hell some countries don't even want them walking through to get to some place that invited them in.

All sorts of things can happen to make things tough. They have happened in the past and will happen again. Prep to live, don't live to prep. No matter how much you prep there will always be a skill or something that you will need when the S.H.T.F..

 

[longbow]

Avoid....

denial
delay
defenselessness
depression
desperation

...and make sure you have the gear and skills to prevent them.

 

[roisigns]

I think that studying the onset of the Great Depression would be beneficial. That scenario is the most likely to occur rather than a full on SHTF/zombie apocalypse.

 

[IndyDave1776]

I think that studying the onset of the Great Depression would be beneficial. That scenario is the most likely to occur rather than a full on SHTF/zombie apocalypse.

This is generally a good thought, but with one MAJOR caveat. One of the economic phenomena of the Depression was that deflation of money. The value of the dollar actually went up, but scarcity of money was the problem. Given our current situation of fiat currency which fluctuates with the speed at which the Fed runs the printing presses rather than fluctuations being tied to tangible assets (or perceived as being tied to actual assets) like gold of relatively stable value, the monetary element of the Great Depression will NOT be repeated in a modern situation, but rather will be replaced with hyperinflation more on the model of the Weimar Republic in Germany.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

Meh, trouble will be in the city and most people will simply go to the sports arena and start dying. I wouldn't expect groups of troublemakers to be very large, it would take an exceptionally strong personality to hold a large group together and those types of people aren't common.

I think you'd be surprised. Circumstances bring leaders to the forefront and when people are desperate, they'll follow anyone who can offer them hope of survival. Brigandage breaks out even when local government hasn't broken down, as the people from Ferguson, Missouri could probably tell you.

On the other hand, if the disaster is bad enough, people will tend to migrate toward leaders who have the capability to bring people and resources together and to facilitate recovery.