Russia vs. Ukraine Part 2

[SEIndSAM]

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

Update: Ukraine has liberated around 2000 sq km today and this is being massively conservative. The Ukrainian Army has entered Vovchansk.

It means that Ukraine is taking back all the territory up to the border in a new blitz-operation started earlier today.

Russian Army left also from a number of other cities near #Vovchansk: Rubizhne, Vovchans'ki Khutory, Bayrak, Staritsa, Volokhivka. (all near the border ith Russia).

Russian sources are in a state of panic that Ukraine is launching a (possibly) multipronged offensive to liberate Donetsk. They report fighting near the city of Donetsk (airport) and Ukrainian forces massing in several other locations south and north of the city.


At this rate, Ukraine will take all it's lost territory in 10 days total. This is their very first military offensive ever in their history. If they defeat Russia, Georgia, Chechnya and other former soviet republics will rise up. Pootypoo has shown the world that his is an administration founded on terror, bad ideas and fetal alchohol syndrome.

The question is now whether Ukraine forces will strike the Russian border city of Belgorod?

 

[BigMoose]

Well I haven't posted in a while.. but it definitely looks like Ukraine duped the Russians.

First the withdrawal from the untenable salient on the eastern front, then to begin making the Russians pull stuff down south, with the very publicly "Southern Offensive", then to hit the supply lines to the eastern front from the North.

This is some master level war planning.

I wonder how much of this is western war planning, being fed to the Ukranians, using western intel.

 

[jwamplerusa]

This is some master level war planning.

I wonder how much of this is western war planning, being fed to the Ukranians, using western intel.

After 2014 the Ukrainian military sought out Western military expertise. They worked hard to develop a professional officer and NCO corps for their military and to adopt Western practices.

While I am reasonably certain they have been aided greatly by the Western military and intelligence infrastructure, and certainly have received plenty of our tax dollars and support, I believe they also learned the lessons well of 2014 and chose not to repeat those errors. The ukrainians appear to have fully grasped and understood the application of modern Western military doctrine including offensive preparation and the OODA loop.

Personally I want to see them continue their success. I don't like bullies. And I don't like Invaders.

 

[BigMoose]

After 2014 the Ukrainian military sought out Western military expertise. They worked hard to develop a professional officer and NCO corps for their military and to adopt Western practices.

While I am reasonably certain they have been aided greatly by the Western military and intelligence infrastructure, and certainly have received plenty of our tax dollars and support, I believe they also learned the lessons well of 2014 and chose not to repeat those errors. The ukrainians appear to have fully grasped and understood the application of modern Western military doctrine including offensive preparation and the OODA loop.

Personally I want to see them continue their success. I don't like bullies. And I don't like Invaders.

Ether way, I agree.

I know everyone bemoans the cost of the aid. But its WORTH IT, every penny. This is going to end up (and already is) a completely humiliating defeat for Russia. As I once said, its bad but not the end of the world to come out on the short end of a asymmetrical war. But this is a hard conventional thrashing.. at the very least we end up with a completely diminished Russia that wont be a true threat for a decade or more. At the best we have putin in a bunker with his own gun to his head and regime change.

 

[BigRed]

It's easy to spend what is not yours.

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

Ether way, I agree.

I know everyone bemoans the cost of the aid. But its WORTH IT, every penny. This is going to end up (and already is) a completely humiliating defeat for Russia. As I once said, its bad but not the end of the world to come out on the short end of a asymmetrical war. But this is a hard conventional thrashing.. at the very least we end up with a completely diminished Russia that wont be a true threat for a decade or more. At the best we have putin in a bunker with his own gun to his head and regime change.

Curious how soon Pootypoo is going to threaten both Ukraine and NATO with tactical nukes? I hope the political opposition and the Army team up to take out Putin and his FSB cronies.

 

[asevans]

Yes Ukraine must be running low on cash. Time for an offensive with big gains to procure another round of funding.
AA

 

[BigRed]

Curious how soon Pootypoo is going to threaten both Ukraine and NATO with tactical nukes? I hope the political opposition and the Army team up to take out Putin and his FSB cronies.

$7B

 

[tsm]

$7B

Damn inflation…

 

[BigRed]

Damn inflation…

Yet still a better deal than what has been and is continuing to be pissed away on this nonsense.

 

[Libertarian01]

The assets we are giving to Ukraine today are necessary, I believe, to keep the Russians bottled up and avoiding direct conflict with NATO. In a direct confrontation with NATO we would route them completely, then Russia would be faced with a choice of either total humiliating route or the use of nuclear weapons. Allowing them that option is to my mind unacceptable at all costs.

Per Peter Zeihan Russia had been burning through about 40,000 artillery rounds per day. As their industrial complex broke down post Soviet collapse they have never recovered. They fought two (2) other small wars with heavy artillery usage and now that they're engaged fully they've finally run out of ammo.

So now they're going to buy some from the North Koreans...

Call me silly but I don't think Kim will sell Vlad the newest and best. And how will he send it? I doubt cross country. So east to Siberia, then the trains all across Russia OR west around all of Europe to NW Russia? Or possibly through the Red Sea, then Suez Canal, then Med, then the Black Sea and try to sneak it into Crimea near the front. Oh, and presuming that American intelligence doesn't track the boats and the Ukrainians reach out and touch them?

I also doubt that now that Ukraine is in full scale war they will NOT stop at current borders. I'm betting they'll go all the way to retaking all territory lost since 2014. This means Crimea will again be Ukrainian. And why not? They'll no longer be afraid of poking the bear since it is already here.

I would also presume that once they do retake and secure lost territory the Ukrainians will have some purges of their own. All those who sided with Russia during all of this will not be made welcome in the reborn, unified Ukraine. I won't presume they'll be shot, although some might, but rather put on buses and shipped to Russia. If they love it so much, they can live there.

It also looks like besides the US giving them weapons systems the Europeans are doing the same. I think it's Slovakia that just gave Ukraine their entire air force. It wasn't much, eleven jets and a Patriot missile battery, but they've given them old Mig's 29s. Now they're upgrading to US F-16s. I believe every European country will do this. They'll give the Ukrainians all their olde stuff and order new stuff.

What we need to seriously look at is that IF Russia is completely purged from Ukraine, which is looking possible, then will Putin be able to remain in power? If he is somehow removed the "transition" could become very, very ugly. Georgia could try to regain all of its former territories and declare full independence. Will Nagorno-Karabakh flair up again, possibly dragging Turkey in? What will happen in Chechnya?

Having a power hungry dictator on your border is bad. Having a failed state that has/had over 1,000 nuclear weapons could be far worse. Neither of these options bodes well. Saddam Hussein was an evil dictator, but he was a devil we could deal with. He helped keep Iran in check, also Saudi Arabia. He also kept the religious crazies under the boot. The chaos that is now Iraq is going to destabilize that region for decades. Now imagine Russia going that way? Somebody whacks Putin. Then while their trying to consolidate power somebody whacks them. It could be like the barracks Emperors of Rome.

For now I'm just pleased to see the Ukrainians taking back what is rightfully(?) theirs.

Regards,

Doug

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

Russian military assets captured by Ukraine forces between Sept 07-10 (Report by Ukraine Ministry of Defense)
-7,000 POWs
-457 Main Battle Tanks
-1,380 Armored Combat Vehicles
-54 Artillery Pieces with Ammo
-20 Air Defense Systems
-11 Special Equipment (Radar-Elint-ECM)
-Multiple Ammunition/Supply/POL dumps

 

[1DOWN4UP]

 

[Brad69]

Meh!

Don‘t discount the Russians while it appears the Ukrainian forces are on the move. The Russian army may be laying a trap.

 

[oze]

Meh!

Don‘t discount the Russians while it appears the Ukrainian forces are on the move. The Russian army may be laying a trap.

Seems that they've been busy laying the trap since February.

 

[Libertarian01]

Seems that they've been busy laying the trap since February.

I agree. While anything is possible, it sounds like the CIA's secret plan to assassinate Castro with olde age.

For the Russians to lay a trap would require competence, something that appears to be in rather short supply.

Regards,

Doug

 

[nra4ever]

This will be a good example of what happens to people that are not prepared when the grid goes down.

 

[Robert Richardson]

Seems that they've been busy laying the trap since February.

Putin has time on his side, don't misread anything. If he unleashes the Russian Air Force, things could change rather quickly. Just saying.

 

[Leadeye]

The only clear winner in all of this will be the chinese.