Pick the day and time Russia invades Ukraine

[BigRed]

Russian Troops Fan Out as Kazakh Leader Orders Protesters Shot

(Bloomberg) -- Kazakhstan’s president said he’s ordered security forces to shoot protesters “without warning” as he declared victory with Russia’s help in crushing unrest sweeping the central Asian nation.“Those who don’t surrender will be destroyed,” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said in a...

finance.yahoo.com

May well be interesting to see what Russia expects in return.

 

[breakingcontact]

I think it is more their version of the N/S Korea border. From the outside, it looks ridiculous and untenable, but sometimes the posturing and staging and stagnation is actually the desired outcome.

 

[AtTheMurph]

Current:

A Timeline Of All Russia-Related Sanctions

A detailed look at all the sanctions levied against Russia, and its countersanctions, since 2014.

www.rferl.org

E.g.,


Future:
E.g., excluding Russia from the SWIFT system.

On the other hand, one may argue they all belong to one big club (especially given that Putin does have ties to Davos and, e.g., at the moment Russia is marching in lockstep with the West insofar as the 'rona is concerned), and sanctions don't matter.
Or at least they shouldn't be taken at a face value.
But then again, there's a chance that these "club members" are simply in a spitting match with each other over something that we are not privy to.
Either way, it has nothing to do with national security on either end.

Excluding Russia from SWIFT is a great way to start the de-dollarization of the world, which would be a very bad thing for the USA which relies on the dollar being reserve currency to maintain the charade of wealth and prosperity in the US.

You kick the Russians out and suddenly all that Russia oil, gas and trade in military equipment is done in rubles or gold, especially gold and countries might start thinking about dumping the dollars as unnecessary and above all, very risky.

 

[snapping turtle]

May well be interesting to see what Russia expects in return.

The long time leader is very friendly with the Russian government

 

[idkfa]

Excluding Russia from SWIFT is a great way to start the de-dollarization of the world, which would be a very bad thing for the USA which relies on the dollar being reserve currency to maintain the charade of wealth and prosperity in the US.

You kick the Russians out and suddenly all that Russia oil, gas and trade in military equipment is done in rubles or gold, especially gold and countries might start thinking about dumping the dollars as unnecessary and above all, very risky.

That's a valid point, no argument there.
I've just answered a question regarding potential future sanctions regardless of how likely that is.
One can also make an argument that the size of the Russian economy is so insignificant on the world scale that it will go completely unnoticed.

Further, the Russian economy depends on the West in just about every aspect: from agriculture to machinery to software.
Russia produces almost nothing. The structure of Russian export pretty much has not changed over the past 2.5 decades.

If the West were to ban the export of food into Russia, Russia would collapse in weeks.
For example, in response to the 2014 sanctions, Putin banned the import of food from certain Western countries. Starve his people to scare the West, yeah.
Anyways, the food got so unbearably bland so fast that Belarus became the leading supplier of fruit, coffee, and gourmet cheese almost overnight. You know, that famous Belorussian brie and delicious Belorussian oranges?
Now, if one were to ban the export of those foods from the West (including Turkey as it is a NATO member), it'd be a whole different situation.

And that's just food. Russia is pretty much running on Windows and Intel processors. There truly is no alternative to those.
Imo there's a ton of creative ways Russians can be incentivized to destroy their government.

 

[jsx1043]

Excluding Russia from SWIFT is a great way to start the de-dollarization of the world, which would be a very bad thing for the USA which relies on the dollar being reserve currency to maintain the charade of wealth and prosperity in the US.

You kick the Russians out and suddenly all that Russia oil, gas and trade in military equipment is done in rubles or gold, especially gold and countries might start thinking about dumping the dollars as unnecessary and above all, very risky.

Absolutely this. China has already moved away from SWIFT and is trying to encourage other nations to trade with them using the new digital yuan instead of USD.

Not to mention the OPEC countries playing hardball with barrels and allowing transactions in other currencies.

 

[AtTheMurph]

That's a valid point, no argument there.
I've just answered a question regarding potential future sanctions regardless of how likely that is.
One can also make an argument that the size of the Russian economy is so insignificant on the world scale that it will go completely unnoticed.

Further, the Russian economy depends on the West in just about every aspect: from agriculture to machinery to software.
Russia produces almost nothing. The structure of Russian export pretty much has not changed over the past 2.5 decades.

If the West were to ban the export of food into Russia, Russia would collapse in weeks.
For example, in response to the 2014 sanctions, Putin banned the import of food from certain Western countries. Starve his people to scare the West, yeah.
Anyways, the food got so unbearably bland so fast that Belarus became the leading supplier of fruit, coffee, and gourmet cheese almost overnight. You know, that famous Belorussian brie and delicious Belorussian oranges?
Now, if one were to ban the export of those foods from the West (including Turkey as it is a NATO member), it'd be a whole different situation.

And that's just food. Russia is pretty much running on Windows and Intel processors. There truly is no alternative to those.
Imo there's a ton of creative ways Russians can be incentivized to destroy their government.

And who would buy this food and at what price?

it's like the argument that we should not export soybeans to China. Well China would simply buy beans from Brazil and Argentina and we would have to sell our beans to whomever Brazil and Argentina had been selling to. There is no storage or beans, it is the flow of beans. Either you sell them or they rot.

I think your understanding of the size of Russia is a little off. They ae the 13th largest exporter (dollar value) mostly oil and petroleum products. They are also a net exporter of food, mostly wheat and barley to Europe. They import cheese, fish and some meat but less than they export.

China is never going to ban Russian goods. They view Russia as in their backyard and a great source of plentiful raw materials for manufacturing.

And why would we want to incentivize the destruction of the Russian government? Is it because they "colluded" with Trump? They "interfered" in our election? Hell, Russia seems to me to be a more rational place with a more rational government than that in the USA. Funny how things change over time.

 

[idkfa]

Overall, I do not disagree with your original post to which I replied.
I've just suggested possible scenarios of how the West can influence Russia based on its overall shaky situation.

And who would buy this food and at what price?

it's like the argument that we should not export soybeans to China. Well China would simply buy beans from Brazil and Argentina and we would have to sell our beans to whomever Brazil and Argentina had been selling to. There is no storage or beans, it is the flow of beans. Either you sell them or they rot.

It doesn't matter; Russia's tiny (globally speaking), and I believe it won't take long to achieve turmoil.
Again, provided there's the political will to do just that (and not the usual political theater).

I think your understanding of the size of Russia is a little off. They ae the 13th largest exporter (dollar value) mostly oil and petroleum products. They are also a net exporter of food, mostly wheat and barley to Europe. They import cheese, fish and some meat but less than they export.

I laughed a bit here (no, really). I guess I'll come out. I happen to be Russian, have lived in Russia most of my life, and, further, looked into the official economy/population/etc. stats quite intently over the years.

My point is that Russia is an exporter of raw materials, and that puts it in a very precarious position (more specifically, bent over with Xi looming behind).
The fact that they account for ~10% of total oil export does not mean that OPEC cannot pick up the slack.
Further, Russian oil ("Urals") is rich in sulfur and is a bit sh*t.

I'd say the only thing that really matters is the fact that Germany shot itself in both feet by shutting down their nuclear reactors and is now fully dependent on Russian mercy.

Russia imports everything that is necessary for modern-day living, from food to clothes to appliances to software.
This means that absolutely any serious embargo will kneecap it in days/weeks.

Take textile. It is next to impossible to find Russian-made textile on the shelves anymore.
Worse, there's a city of Ivanovo in Russia that specializes (yes, the whole city) in textile. But not only do they not export it, they actually do not sell it outside of the city.
"Why, oh why?" you may ask.
Well, it so happens that Russian roads are ****. Russian railways are **** and few and far between, and the situation deteriorated under Putin.

China is never going to ban Russian goods. They view Russia as in their backyard and a great source of plentiful raw materials for manufacturing.

Just which goods are we talking about? China's sole intention is likely to destroy and annex Russia. They've been not-so-quietly invading via "immigration" in Siberia. Putin handed them large swaths of Siberian forest for pennies on the dollar.
China's not going to ban Russian goods (whatever they are), sure -- but they aren't going to pay what Russia would want, not even close.

And why would we want to incentivize the destruction of the Russian government? Is it because they "colluded" with Trump? They "interfered" in our election? Hell, Russia seems to me to be a more rational place with a more rational government than that in the USA. Funny how things change over time.

Precisely. You, I, and other "maggots" (I wear this name as a badge of honor) would not want that.
Deep state, on the other hand, might. It's not like they haven't tried hard with Navalny, but it didn't work out.
That being said, I wouldn't say that the Russian government is "rational" -- but hell yes, it is more rational than what we have here now and had for the better part of the past 20-30 years.

 

[rugertoter]

I often wonder if Putin gives a rat's *** about what obiden says or thinks.

I would bet nope.

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

Thread by @ClintEhrlich on Thread Reader App

@ClintEhrlich: URGENT UPDATE on the Kazakhstan Crisis: There is *breaking news* about the attempted revolution. One of the conspirators was a Kazakh official who has been linked to Joe Biden and Hunter Biden! This h...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[AtTheMurph]

Overall, I do not disagree with your original post to which I replied.
I've just suggested possible scenarios of how the West can influence Russia based on its overall shaky situation.


It doesn't matter; Russia's tiny (globally speaking), and I believe it won't take long to achieve turmoil.
Again, provided there's the political will to do just that (and not the usual political theater).


I laughed a bit here (no, really). I guess I'll come out. I happen to be Russian, have lived in Russia most of my life, and, further, looked into the official economy/population/etc. stats quite intently over the years.

My point is that Russia is an exporter of raw materials, and that puts it in a very precarious position (more specifically, bent over with Xi looming behind).
The fact that they account for ~10% of total oil export does not mean that OPEC cannot pick up the slack.
Further, Russian oil ("Urals") is rich in sulfur and is a bit sh*t.

I'd say the only thing that really matters is the fact that Germany shot itself in both feet by shutting down their nuclear reactors and is now fully dependent on Russian mercy.

Russia imports everything that is necessary for modern-day living, from food to clothes to appliances to software.
This means that absolutely any serious embargo will kneecap it in days/weeks.

Take textile. It is next to impossible to find Russian-made textile on the shelves anymore.
Worse, there's a city of Ivanovo in Russia that specializes (yes, the whole city) in textile. But not only do they not export it, they actually do not sell it outside of the city.
"Why, oh why?" you may ask.
Well, it so happens that Russian roads are ****. Russian railways are **** and few and far between, and the situation deteriorated under Putin.


Just which goods are we talking about? China's sole intention is likely to destroy and annex Russia. They've been not-so-quietly invading via "immigration" in Siberia. Putin handed them large swaths of Siberian forest for pennies on the dollar.
China's not going to ban Russian goods (whatever they are), sure -- but they aren't going to pay what Russia would want, not even close.


Precisely. You, I, and other "maggots" (I wear this name as a badge of honor) would not want that.
Deep state, on the other hand, might. It's not like they haven't tried hard with Navalny, but it didn't work out.
That being said, I wouldn't say that the Russian government is "rational" -- but hell yes, it is more rational than what we have here now and had for the better part of the past 20-30 years.

The raw materials Russia exports are the lifeblood of Chinese industrial production. They are the lifeblood of much of Europe as well.

It's pretty damn hard to make BMWs or Volvo's (if there were still made in Europe and not China) when you are sitting you your little European apartment with no heat and the factory is **** for no electricity.

China may well try to annex Russia some day but who doesn't want to? The USA surely does. The RAW MATERIALS are were all the VALUE is. And Russia, for all it's faults run a trade surplus, has one of, if not the lowest debts/GDP in the world and actually has a significant amount saved in real money.

I think Russia has something figured out. Sure, they are not living like the West because they don't borrow like the West. But those types of comparisons are entirely based on timing. In 20 years we may be wishing we had it as good as the Russians! You never know.

(BTW, my major in college was Econ with a focus on Soviet economics. Mid 80s stuff. Probably why I am a stout free market, anti-centralized planning nutt).)

 

[longbow]

i lost

 

[Keith_Indy]

Any day now...

A 'massive' hacking attack has hit government websites in Ukraine

The European Union says it will help Ukraine fight cyberattacks after 'provocative messages' left on ministry websites.

www.zdnet.com

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

First on CNN: US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine

The US has information that indicates Russia has prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine, a US official told CNN on Friday, in an attempt to create a pretext for an invasion.

www.cnn.com

I agree. Russia is moving towards war.

 

[Flash-hider]

I'll go with, Russia invades Ukraine the moment the Olympic torch is lit in Beijing.

 

[idkfa]

First on CNN: US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine

The US has information that indicates Russia has prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine, a US official told CNN on Friday, in an attempt to create a pretext for an invasion.

www.cnn.com

I agree. Russia is moving towards war.

Yes, zey left pikchurs ov babushka drinkin vodka and pleing balalaika on Jukrainian servers.

Western media is drumming up hysteria with CNN leading the effort.
So it must be true.
Jesus, people, you never learn.

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

Yes, zey left pikchurs ov babushka drinkin vodka and pleing balalaika on Jukrainian servers.

Western media is drumming up hysteria with CNN leading the effort.
So it must be true.
Jesus, people, you never learn.

Ok, share your wisdom and bring us out of the dark ages. I'm curious about the details on your line of thought?

 

[snorko]

Other Ukraine thread: Ukraine & Georgia to be admitted to NATO.

Perfect flashpoint.

 

[idkfa]

Ok, share your wisdom and bring us out of the dark ages. I'm curious about the details on your line of thought?

I had already done just that in this thread.
Further, instead of sharing a link to a mainstream media article and making a pompous assertion, I actually elaborated on my "line of thought."
This is irrelevant, however. In my previous post, I have mocked the superficial attitude towards the events happening on the other side of the world and in a vastly different cultural context.
This is the same tired narrative, promulgated in exactly the same manner and even via the same outlets -- and y'all bought it again, hook, line, and sinker.

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

I had already done just that in this thread.
Further, instead of sharing a link to a mainstream media article and making a pompous assertion, I actually elaborated on my "line of thought."
This is irrelevant, however. In my previous post, I have mocked the superficial attitude towards the events happening on the other side of the world and in a vastly different cultural context.
This is the same tired narrative, promulgated in exactly the same manner and even via the same outlets -- and y'all bought it again, hook, line, and sinker.

Your posts focus on the economic and cultural reasons why Russia will not attack/invade eastern Ukraine. Same reasoning would have applied to Germany prior to WWI. France was their largest trading partner, yet Germany still attacked. Looking back, most wars make no sense. Even Vietnam and the 2003 Iraq invasion were huge mistakes. Yet here we are with100,000 Russian troops mobilized near the eastern Ukraine border.

I was deployed in 1999 for the Kosovo crisis (Operation Forget Monica). From my experience, government leaders have big egos and make stupid choices.