It Occurs to Me...

[Wabatuckian]

... about this ammo thing. It occurs to me that we may be digging our own hole.

Back in, I'm wanting to say the '70s sometime, Johnny Carson made a joke. It was along the lines of how the government was going to take over the production of toilet paper, so of course there would be a shortage.

Now, he was talking to folks who were absolutely paranoid about shortages. They remembered it from WWII and, to a lesser extent, Vietnam.

So they ran out and started buying all the TP they could find. Prices went up and TP actually got hard to find in some areas. Supply could not keep up with demand, and even though manufacturers launched commercials assuring customers that there was plenty being made, the empty store shelves convinced the buyers that there wasn't.

Carson came on to clarify that he was talking about government issue toilet paper, but that did nothing to calm peoples' fears, either.

Eventually the scare wiped itself out, but things were messy for a while.

Here's a link to a webpage sporting the story: The Great Toilet Paper Shortage

Not my original source - my original source was an actual book - but that's the story.

Now, if you've stuck with me this far: Rumors are running rampant about the shortages of ammo. There was some truth to this, and may be again - the first time was due to raw material prices, and the second will probably be political.

But for right now, from what I understand, the raw material prices have stabilized.

I can get components just fine - true, they're still up a bit, but there's by no means a shortage.

From what I'm seeing, we're now creating our own shortages, and due to the way Capitalism works, prices will reflect demand.

What if we just laid back off the ammo buying for a bit? I've got plenty, and most of you folks do as well, I'm assuming. That goes double for you reloaders.

So, what do you think? At first, yes, there was a shortage caused by raw material availability. Now, it seems that we are fueling it.

I'm not trying to be politically charged here; I'm just asking that maybe we need to take a couple steps back and look at the situation.

Josh <><

 

[Disposable Heart]

We can say this all day long, but the folks that aren't up on guns in general that don't visit online pages that DIDN'T prepare aren't going to stop panic buying. Also, I would say a majority of gun owners (not shooters, just owners) don't think of stuff like this. Their wallets are fueled by fear and they didn't prepare, buying cases when ammo was cheap. Now, they are running into a wall. Its bad across the board, but if we hang on, there should be a drop in demand soon and supply should be running overtime still. There may be a few months ahead (in a year or two) that will have cheap pricing as long as things aren't banned.

I have a feeling that some stores are going to run into trouble in a year or two as the demand wanes off due to a surge of guns on the market. The market is innundated with guns and folks are slowing in their purchases. Some stores are going to have low sales as everyone pretty much blown their wad () on guns a little while ago. I would say that there has to be a few factors that will keep these stores open: A ban of some sort, better economic situation (people have more disposable) and hopefully a downgrade in demand rather than a sharp few month drop (a drop in demand over a year or so would allow for store owners to prepare and design a new business plan).

 

[colt45er]

I think you are right about the supply/demand thing. I think what most people are scared of though is the regualtion of ammo in the not so distant future. If 6 mts from now an ammo tax goes into effect and microstamping begins, prices will shoot through the roof and once again the government will know exactly who is shooting what and where.

 

[Turtle]

Any one notice all the reports and statistics showing record numbers of people applying for gun permits. And the massive gun buying frenzy that has happened since November. Im sure all these new gun owners are also contributing to the buying... hell my moms even got 1000 rds of 9mm...lol Every time i buy a new gun I think I need 500rds to go with it.
we are talking thousands maybe millions of new gun owners feeding out of the same supply as the rest of us. And the stores and manufacturing plants had no clue it was commin nor where they prepared to double there orders. Im just glad to see all these new gun owners. its worth the ammo shortage just to increase the numbers in OUR favor.

Would rather have a loaded gun and not need it than an unloaded gun any day.

 

[Wabatuckian]

Then again, on the microstamping thing, I thought I saw that all the current ammo had to be destroyed by 2011?

Of course, brass isn't ammo... is it?

And I'm sure I have a few spare firing pins around here...

Josh <><

 

[Disposable Heart]

I can personally tell people about the ammo regulation thing: Bob at Plainfield regularly uses the "they have a bill infront of legislation now" thing that while a credible threat, the actual bill he refers to has been shot down. Panic buying is fueled by fear, the fear can be cast by anyone... argh I guess people should be buying ammo because their new gun needs it or they need to cycle out their old carry stuff, not because some gun dealer pushes them into panic mode. Heck, the panic buying that goes on is usually for low amounts too, but they are comforted that 40 rounds of .223 will "teach those jackbooted G-thugs something...".