Is 2022 Elections going to be a Red Tidal Wave?

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  • jamil

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    This is the kind of thing that seems unsane. Why on earth would incorrect modeling be seriously discussed? Sure, it's possible to do bad modeling at any made up resolution you wish. I just think the concept of modeling embodies within it the idea that any abstraction will be used to better (and more correctly) grasp a complex system in order to facilitate a quicker but still accurate decision about it

    Think situational awareness, not some beard pulling philosophical argument. In SA you are abstracting an environment with a lot of available input to extract only those feeds useful in determining threat level, and all those selected inputs are assigned a yes/no binary value
    It's engineering. What resolution do you need? It's like the idiot light example. You can model the temperature with a gauge with a needle that represents the temperature of the engine coolant. Obviously old school. Anyway, if you don't care about the temperature, and you only care about temperature when it's too high, an idiot light is the right resolution. One is more accurate than the because it models the reality of the coolant temperature with a higher resolution.

    And I don't get why abstraction is a part of the conversation. It's not arbitrary. Take code for example. I write web services in higher level languages that abstract the machine code that computers actually run. How long would it take me to code a complex system using just 1's and 0's versus how long it would take to write the same system in a higher level language. The abstraction only hides the complexity. It doesn't dissolve it. Someone had to think out and create each level of abstraction that leads to productivity gains.

    I think the discussion of modeling is fascinating and all, but the direction is getting a bit off topic from the what I'm saying about binary thinking. I'm using it to refer to perception of reality. We build a mental model of reality, and maybe you don't like it being referred to as a model, but that's what it is. Perception is indeed a model of what we think is reality. A worldview is a model of our theory of everything. It's obviously reduced to 42. Anyway, when we reduce our perception of complex reality to simply binary outcomes, that's not an accurate model.

    Even situational awareness is a sort of mental model of what's happening around us using all our senses as inputs. The concept of OODA loop is a conceptual model of human decision making.
     

    jamil

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    Yeah, their models are based on small scale experiments using what amounts to a large terrarium and adding CO2. It can't possibly even begin to simulate earths atmosphere. The earths rotation, Brownian motion, changing distance/angles from the sun, solar activity, UV and other radiation and complex dynamics cannot be reproduced at that small scale with any accuracy.

    Just like we can create micro black holes in accelarators, they do not much resemble actual black holes power.

    We can tell when models aren't accurate. When the events they predict don't happen the way they're predicted to happen, when they're predicted to happen, something is wrong. There may be inputs not considered, algorithms miscalculated, wrong assumptions. Back when Al Gore the climate whore (AGCW) presented his hockey stick graph, those predictions were created from computer models back in the late 90s. The predicted catastrophe in the early 20teens. Didn't happen. They predicted way higher temps than what we actually have experienced. Those were obviously wrong. Current models I'm sure are better because they've had 20something years of accumulated knowledge. They still fail to predict some things.
     

    jamil

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    You know, I had a friend in college who was a psychiatry major and she just could not resist trying to pop psychoanalyze everyone about everything and couldn't see that she had to have an unrealistically high opinion of herself to always believe she was qualified to do that

    I hated it then, I still hate it when you do it. I'm just not a buyer at any price
    That's fine. I think I'm right. Not becuse I have a high opinion of myself. But because it looks to be true. I do think you idealize Trump. I think everyone who does not idealize Trump sees it. It's fine if you think I'm psychoanalyzing. You're as much entitled to your opinion as I am mine. I'm not a fan of binary thinking. So here we are.
     

    jamil

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    Edit: And don't you have any idea what an abstraction is? For example in fluid dynamics, say, postulating an idealized frictionless, incompressible fluid in order to simplify writing equations which will allow you to generally analyze many different problems is an abstraction from reality. It isn't an assumption, because we already know that it isn't the case but we can decide to use it because we determine that the deviation from perfect modeling will not result in so much error as to make the results not useful
    I don't know how you're applying it to this subject. It makes me think you're talking in circles because you just complained about abstraction in models making them useless, but then here you say that it's fine because you've determined that errors don't prevent it from being useful. See? Modeling is useful.

    The whole idea of creating models is to abstract the complexities so that we don't have to deal with them. It doesn't mean that they're not dealt with. It's that we can spend time being more productive by having some other process handle the complexities. Climate models have some usefulness. But their usefulness is limited, I think because we don't know enough about a system so complex as the world's climate. It doesn't have to predict every cloud but it's certainly not capable of telling us with any certainty that we need to change the whole world order to save us from the climate.
     

    Ingomike

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    @jamil is right, leaving out vote fraud, the dems are taking advantage of the situation and getting out their votes. It is unreal the communists have figured out not only how to effectively get the dem voters out, but to also make it tax deductible! That is what Soros and FTX money went to…

    “The group advises its ultra-left-wing (and ultra-rich) donors to fund 501(c)(3) voter registration nonprofits because “they are 2 to 5 times more cost-effective at netting additional Democratic votes” than advertising.”



    Meanwhile republicans are sitting on their hands. Lee Zeldin gets it.

     

    Ingomike

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    What dems are doing is essentially an upgraded version of old machine politics.
    That and they have made the big blue cities inhospitable to anyone that might even try to get votes there for anyone other than the machine. This may be an ulterior motive to not enforcing laws and prosecuting criminals
     

    BugI02

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    After he gets done fixing all of America's more pressing problems in his first 100 days as 47 so he can finally shut the worst supposedly conservative little ******* up for a (brief) while
     
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