Egypt - ruh roh

[T.Lex]

Some cry 'coup' as Egypt's highest court annuls parliament, military extends power - CNN.com

Almost posted this in the Survival forum.

This is a complicated thing, so the thread might not last long, but the situation in Egypt could be a bell-weather for the other Arabic Spring nations.

In a sense, it is a good thing that the Supreme Court there might be trying to limit the islamist presence in the legislature. But, that's a bad way to go about doing that, IMHO. Those folks were fairly elected. Extended military rule is a worse idea.

People with extremist views tend to become more moderate once elected. (Sure, there are exceptions, but I'm talking generally.)

But, also putting this in context with: greater Russian involvement in Syria, the EU debt crises, *.* in Iran... Overall, things are getting too interesting for my taste.

 

[Kirk Freeman]

The sounds you just heard is all of Aman smacking their foreheads.

"Obama did what?" *smack*

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, I saw something about Obama authorizing military action against the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda/Sudan. I meant to mention that, too.

I would speculate that we are doubling-down on a new version of proxy-wars... but that might suggest Obama actually has a comprehensive foreign policy.

He doesn't. So I won't.

 

[hooky]

This has to be a good thing, right? I mean I just saw a letter last week where Trumka was crowing about the steps they'd made in WI and how it compared favorably to Egypt and other Arab Spring events.

 

[T.Lex]

I think this development is bad for the Egyptian people, and bad for the US. It may have increased the chance of a civil war in a country that should be a secular, stable partner for the US. IMHO.

 

[mrjarrell]

Actually, the Supreme Courts ruling in this case is a good thing. It points out that they are willing to follow their Constitution and a lot of Egyptians are going to look favourably upon that, especially the secular and "revolutionary"/non-Muslim Brotherhood segment. This will result in another election. A do-over, for that segment of their Parliament. Hopefully, this time around the "liberals" and secularists will get a better chance and won't get bulldozered by the Salafists and Brotherhood. One of the main reasons the Brotherhood did so well in the previous elections was that the majority of people were voting for anyone but the old regime and the Brotherhood threw candidates into the fray in a massive way. The majority of Egyptians had no idea who any of these people were or what they represented. They just knew that they weren't Mubarak's cronies and were unaffiliated with the previous regime. That's why they're so fubar'd over the current election for President. They, like us, have two candidates that they dislike. One from the old regime and one from the Brotherhood. The man on the street in Egypt likes neither, but they're stuck with what they have and have to elect one or the other. Hopefully everything will shake out in a few years and the actual people behind their revolution will replace many of the people they elected this go around. This is all pretty new to the Egyptians.

 

[T.Lex]

With sincere respect, mrjarrell, I remain unconvinced that this is a good thing. The timing is bad - almost literally at the 11th hour before the presidential elections. The military regime, which made sense at first, has slow-walked the process toward more democracy. That same military regime now has an opportunity to remain in power.

Plus, the social costs. The MB now has a semi-legitimate reason to say the system is rigged against them - pushing them further to the extreme. If this trajectory continues, the military will have to choose sides. By doing nothing, it might side with the MB by default.

None here have a crystal ball, but this is a hot spot we don't need.

 

[mrjarrell]

Do you seriously think, T. that the military is going to be out of power once the elections are over? They are always going to be the power behind the throne, no matter what anyone thinks. The people in Egypt certainly know this. The only hope is the do over for that section of parliament, in the hopes that more secularists get in. They are the only real opposition the military has. The MB aren't opposed to the military and neither are the Salafists or the old regime. This ruling will serve to neuter whomever gets elected this weekend, for awhile. Then there will be a more complete government after the next election. The army isn't going anywhere. They've shown that clearly.

 

[T.Lex]

I guess the question is which kind of gridlock do you prefer - USian or Middle-eastern?

The military are not particularly enamored of the MB, either. But, having the court engage in such a HUGE disruption of the system is more dangerous than muddling through with the flawed, fledgling democracy. To me, while the steps toward democracy were small, they were at least forward. This seems to me a big step backward.

The military will always have some power - even here in the US.

 

[IndyDave1776]

It sounds to me like an excellent thing contrasted with having one free election resulting in Iran II (as was the case with the 1979 revolution after which there never was even the pretense of a fair election). It is also important to remember that Egypt has over 1000 M1 Abrams tanks, a significant number of F16 fighters in addition to a wide variety of older types, reasonably modern attack helicopters, and a wide variety of other goodies we supplied them including Humvee-mounted Stinger missile launchers. With the MB in charge, there WILL be a war with Israel and we WILL get dragged into it, thank you Moron in Chief Obama (for supporting the destabilizing of Egypt and a replacement regime far more hostile to both peace and domestic freedom than the one ousted).

 

[TiminMishawaka]

This is clearly false. Obama said Democracy is coming there.

 

[Effingham]

I think they don't yet get how democracy works. Independent politicians ALWAYS join blocs -- that's how they get influence and power. There is nothing wrong about non-aligned pols joining forces in the government to strengthen their positions.

 

[longbow]

They are the cheap abrams tanks and Israel has the kill switch for them...............OOOPS I didn't really mean that.....................

 

[IndyDave1776]

They are the cheap abrams tanks and Israel has the kill switch for them...............OOOPS I didn't really mean that.....................

Not sure how that would work out given that a good many of them have been 'upgraded' locally since initial delivery. The upside that I would hold onto is that the Israelis have approximately equal numbers of Merkavas and I would consider the Merkava to be a superior tank in every regard other than road speed.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

It sounds to me like an excellent thing contrasted with having one free election resulting in Iran II (as was the case with the 1979 revolution after which there never was even the pretense of a fair election). It is also important to remember that Egypt has over 1000 M1 Abrams tanks, a significant number of F16 fighters in addition to a wide variety of older types, reasonably modern attack helicopters, and a wide variety of other goodies we supplied them including Humvee-mounted Stinger missile launchers. With the MB in charge, there WILL be a war with Israel and we WILL get dragged into it, thank you Moron in Chief Obama (for supporting the destabilizing of Egypt and a replacement regime far more hostile to both peace and domestic freedom than the one ousted).

What he said

Not sure how that would work out given that a good many of them have been 'upgraded' locally since initial delivery. The upside that I would hold onto is that the Israelis have approximately equal numbers of Merkavas and I would consider the Merkava to be a superior tank in every regard other than road speed.

I have a particular tanker buddy who would disagree with your assessment of the Merkava, and no one I've talked to who's ever been associated with the M1 thinks it isn't the best tank in the world.

 

[Kirk Freeman]

Egyptian liberals: we were duped!

Egypt’s Liberals: “We Were Duped” | Via Meadia

 

[IndyDave1776]

Egyptian liberals: we were duped!

Good find, but isn't this standard for liberals (in the modern sense, not classical liberalism)? I find it strange that we could all see the same general result coming from the beginning either at the hands of the Islamists or the military (who apparently learned a thing of three from watching what happened to the Iranian military after it passively went along with an Islamist revolution).

 

[mrjarrell]

Good find, but isn't this standard for liberals (in the modern sense, not classical liberalism)? I find it strange that we could all see the same general result coming from the beginning either at the hands of the Islamists or the military (who apparently learned a thing of three from watching what happened to the Iranian military after it passively went along with an Islamist revolution).

When you're talking about "liberals" in Egypt, you're talking about European style democrats or classical liberals. Not the Americanised version. Many of them would be considered libertarian, by American standards, if a bit to the left. Sad thing is that they did believe the military and were duped. This is not going to be good for the psyche of the Egyptian people, in the long run. It was to be expected. The only fortunate thing in this is that the next elections for the lower house will likely have fewer MB members and more secularist/liberals. The turnout for the presidential election going on today, is light and it looks like many are boycotting it, given that they have a choice much like ours, turd or douche.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

Egyptian liberals: we were duped!

Egypt’s Liberals: “We Were Duped” | Via Meadia

Good find, but isn't this standard for liberals (in the modern sense, not classical liberalism)? I find it strange that we could all see the same general result coming from the beginning either at the hands of the Islamists or the military (who apparently learned a thing of three from watching what happened to the Iranian military after it passively went along with an Islamist revolution).

The Egyptians, like us here in the States, have no feeling for history. All they had to do was look at Russian in 1917 and they could have seen this coming (as we could have with Iran in 1979 - if we hadn't had exactly the same sort of Idiot in the White House then as we do today).