8 healthcare workers were stoned to death because the locals thought they were trying to spread Ebola.
Ebola health team found dead - Vox
Ebola health team found dead - Vox
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Ebola on the horizon?
- Thread starter nra4ever
- Start date
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CountryBoy19
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Keep in mind that they are in remote areas with limited resources. They may be reusing biohazard containment stuff (gloves, suits, masks etc) for all we know. It's not uncomon over there, they do many "risky" things out of necessity because there is no better option. With increased exposure, even if they are taking precautions it means increased risk. How many US docs/nurses are working over there? How many have got this after wees & months workking extended, tiring schedules 100% surrouded by people sick with this illness? Another thing to consider is that people are ACTIVELY TRYING TO HIDE IT when they are sick. Which means these docs/nurses could be contracting this from people they have no reason to believe are sick; could be a coworker, etc that they feel safe around and they let their guard down for just a moment... lots of reasons that docs/nurses could have gotten this without causing alarm and panic...
Reuters is reporting new WHO numbers: 2,793 deaths out of 5,762 cases (apparently as of 9/17 or 18).
That's almost 1k new cases in a week and about 400 more deaths, the bulk of them coming from Liberia.
The report indicates that the disease is now contained in Senegal and Nigeria. So, that's good.
Still on track for 7k by the end of the month and 12k in 30 days. Mortality is dropping, though. Basically under 50% now.
ETA: Average new cases per day still around 120-140.
That's almost 1k new cases in a week and about 400 more deaths, the bulk of them coming from Liberia.
The report indicates that the disease is now contained in Senegal and Nigeria. So, that's good.
Still on track for 7k by the end of the month and 12k in 30 days. Mortality is dropping, though. Basically under 50% now.
ETA: Average new cases per day still around 120-140.
Well, new numbers based on a compilation of WHO and separately reported national updates as of 20 September: 6,185 cases, 2,909 deaths. I think part of what we're seeing is Sierra Leone's recent "census" of cases and deaths. Hopefully, that lockdown was effective and SL's data will flatten out. I have little hope of Liberia getting things under control any time soon. Their best hope (IMHO) is for the outbreak to just die out.
The data shows roughly a doubling of cases and deaths since 25 Aug. It does still look like deaths as a percentage of cases are flattening out, though. Hovering at less than 50%.
For those playing the trending game, the new numbers still show >7k cases by the end of the month, and ~12k in 30 days.
ETA:
I see that the CDC is providing best case/worst case scenarios, and the media is reporting the worst case scenario is +1 million cases by the end of January. That assumes there is a (CDC gut instinct) 2.5 multiplier of cases "in the wild" that have not been identified. The more realistic scenario, which they also provide but is buried in the middle of the reporting, is ~20k by November. My own trending says 30-40k or so by January, assuming current rates.
They are also reporting 70% mortality. I don't know where the ____ they are getting that number.
The data shows roughly a doubling of cases and deaths since 25 Aug. It does still look like deaths as a percentage of cases are flattening out, though. Hovering at less than 50%.
For those playing the trending game, the new numbers still show >7k cases by the end of the month, and ~12k in 30 days.
ETA:
I see that the CDC is providing best case/worst case scenarios, and the media is reporting the worst case scenario is +1 million cases by the end of January. That assumes there is a (CDC gut instinct) 2.5 multiplier of cases "in the wild" that have not been identified. The more realistic scenario, which they also provide but is buried in the middle of the reporting, is ~20k by November. My own trending says 30-40k or so by January, assuming current rates.
They are also reporting 70% mortality. I don't know where the ____ they are getting that number.
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No official update from WHO, but the wiki crowdsourcing people are doing a good job of compiling numbers. As of 22 Sept, total cases appears to be 6,405 with 2,984 deaths. The mortality rate continues to drift lower than 50%. Looking to be pretty close to double for the month.
Trendlines are basically the same, with a notable exception being avg. reported daily cases. That now shows a fairly pronounced upward trajectory. This may be temporary, though, as data from the "census" and other sources is more thorough. More cases per day indicates the virus is still out of control. Haven't seen any recent numbers on avg number of retransmissions for each patient. Gotta believe it is approaching 2.
ETA:
Forgot a couple other news items. Sierra Leone puts another million people under quarantine. My sense is that is not good news.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-...arantines-one-million-ahead-of-UN-Ebola-talks
Also, (not providing links) there are now reports of dead ebola victims coming back to life and accusations in African papers that ebola is a product of US intelligence services.
In unrelated news, futures of tin foil export to Africa are up.
Trendlines are basically the same, with a notable exception being avg. reported daily cases. That now shows a fairly pronounced upward trajectory. This may be temporary, though, as data from the "census" and other sources is more thorough. More cases per day indicates the virus is still out of control. Haven't seen any recent numbers on avg number of retransmissions for each patient. Gotta believe it is approaching 2.
ETA:
Forgot a couple other news items. Sierra Leone puts another million people under quarantine. My sense is that is not good news.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-...arantines-one-million-ahead-of-UN-Ebola-talks
Also, (not providing links) there are now reports of dead ebola victims coming back to life and accusations in African papers that ebola is a product of US intelligence services.
In unrelated news, futures of tin foil export to Africa are up.
Yet more danger to be dealt with by the 3,000 service members we're sending over. I'm of the opinion that sending troops will cause more harm than good.
Especially if people are reanimating!
I tend to agree. I'm sure there will be a significant amount of logistic support - at least a 21 day transition period in a sterile facility when coming home - and the overall medical care will be better for our troops. But, I keep coming back to all the medical people in Africa who did everything "right" and still got sick. Or dead.
If we do send people, it should be a volunteer deployment IMHO. (Do we even do that anymore?)
I don't know how you can look people in the eye and say "I know you didn't sign up for this and it's not in our charter, but you're going."
I read a story about the reanimation and chuckled at the following line. "Since the Ebola outbreak in Nimba County, this is the first incident of dead victims resurrecting."
Arg.
Example of sensationalist reporting:
Graphic: how Ebola cases have grown since March - Telegraph
Could "reach a staggering 1.4m" if the CDC's WAG proves correct.
Heck, even the 21k by the end of October looks aggressive at this point. I figure 15k is more likely.
Well, the "back from the dead" stuff is pretty sensationalist, too.
ETA:
Wow - late WHO update as of Sept. 23: 6,553 cases, 3,083 deaths. Still on track to be at 7k+ by the end of September. Current rates only get us to ~14k cases by end of October.
Example of sensationalist reporting:
Graphic: how Ebola cases have grown since March - Telegraph
Could "reach a staggering 1.4m" if the CDC's WAG proves correct.
Heck, even the 21k by the end of October looks aggressive at this point. I figure 15k is more likely.
Well, the "back from the dead" stuff is pretty sensationalist, too.
ETA:
Wow - late WHO update as of Sept. 23: 6,553 cases, 3,083 deaths. Still on track to be at 7k+ by the end of September. Current rates only get us to ~14k cases by end of October.
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Dallas hospital isolates possible Ebola patient
A Dallas hospital is isolating a possible Ebola patient. I hope the tests are negative. If not, we have a problem.
A Dallas hospital is isolating a possible Ebola patient. I hope the tests are negative. If not, we have a problem.
subtlesixer03
Expert
- Apr 22, 2010
- 896
- 18
So many suspected cases in the "western" world that turn out to be false, I stopped counting. 
But yes, if it escapes the current containment - almost anywhere - it would add a whole new dimension to the urgency. It can be controlled - Nigeria and Senegal did a decent enough job.
ETA:
Then there's Liberia. Apropos to this forum:
Ebola-stricken Liberia is descending into economic hell - The Washington Post
ETA2:
Aaand some updated, compiled, numbers as of Sept. 25: 6808 cases, 3159 deaths.
Averaging 110+ new cases per day, so it looks like we'll see 7k+ by Oct. 1 reporting dates.
On the "good news" side of the ledger, the average daily cases seem to be in a downward trend. The 30 day trendline looks to be about 13k, which is more or less steady from where it was before. Mortality rates seem to be improving, too.
As noted above, a potentially bigger issue than the health crisis is the social crisis. Fear is paralyzing arguably more than the actual disease is affecting people. Roughly 6k people die from Malaria each year in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. If you include Senegal and Nigeria, you get about 14k deaths from Malaria.
But yes, if it escapes the current containment - almost anywhere - it would add a whole new dimension to the urgency. It can be controlled - Nigeria and Senegal did a decent enough job.
ETA:
Then there's Liberia. Apropos to this forum:
Ebola-stricken Liberia is descending into economic hell - The Washington Post
ETA2:
Aaand some updated, compiled, numbers as of Sept. 25: 6808 cases, 3159 deaths.
Averaging 110+ new cases per day, so it looks like we'll see 7k+ by Oct. 1 reporting dates.
On the "good news" side of the ledger, the average daily cases seem to be in a downward trend. The 30 day trendline looks to be about 13k, which is more or less steady from where it was before. Mortality rates seem to be improving, too.
As noted above, a potentially bigger issue than the health crisis is the social crisis. Fear is paralyzing arguably more than the actual disease is affecting people. Roughly 6k people die from Malaria each year in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. If you include Senegal and Nigeria, you get about 14k deaths from Malaria.
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Hey GP, this is probably worth a new thread. After getting scooped 2x today, you deserve this one.
https://www.indianagunowners.com/fo...c-confirms-first-ebola-case-diagnosed-us.html
Fair enough
Few random thoughts after the overnight on this. (Channeling Larry King.)
Looks like there'll be a new column on the charts for this case.
I wonder if this was a medical professional who was in Liberia and came back. That would make sense with the timeline. This does not appear to be someone who was callously disregarding the risks. If it were, I think the timeline would have been more drawn out.
Superficially, it would appear that there was an undiagnosed population in Liberia where ebola was still active. (Of course, we know there are probably many.) But, if it was a medical professional, they would already have a clear idea (supposedly) of how the person was infected.
Might be a delay in the release of WHO reports today.
IMHO they should be alerting the people who were on the plane(s) with this patient. I would want to know, even if the risk was minimal.
Looks like there'll be a new column on the charts for this case.
I wonder if this was a medical professional who was in Liberia and came back. That would make sense with the timeline. This does not appear to be someone who was callously disregarding the risks. If it were, I think the timeline would have been more drawn out.
Superficially, it would appear that there was an undiagnosed population in Liberia where ebola was still active. (Of course, we know there are probably many.) But, if it was a medical professional, they would already have a clear idea (supposedly) of how the person was infected.
Might be a delay in the release of WHO reports today.
IMHO they should be alerting the people who were on the plane(s) with this patient. I would want to know, even if the risk was minimal.
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