Will Israel Bomb Iran? Here are the cases for and against.

[ruger17hmr]

The Case That Israel Will Bomb Iran

• Only Israel Can Solve Iranian Nukes Israeli blogger Carl writes, "I don't believe Obama is constitutionally capable of waging the kind of all-out war that would be required against Iran. I don't believe he is capable of inflicting the civilian casualties that would be inflicted in such a war. And I don't believe he's capable of doing that where he doesn't see that war as a war for his or his country's existence. And that's where Israel is different because we understand that a war with Iran is an existential necessity for us, no matter how many times Netanyahu tries - in vain - to convince the world that it's not just our problem."

• Obama Hoping for Israeli Strike? Conservative blogger Glenn Reynolds sighs, "I think some people in Washington — and elsewhere — have been letting the Israelis twist in the wind in the hopes that Israel will solve our Iran problems for us, and take the blame. I don’t think these 'leaders' will like the outcome, and if I were the Israelis I wouldn’t be trying too hard to make it pleasant. Irresponsibility can be expensive."

• With 'Weak' U.S., Israel Must Take Lead The American Thinker's Rick Moran writes, "with success, the Israelis will buy time (probably putting the Iranian program back 3-5 years), earn the secret thanks of most of the moderate Arab regimes in the Middle East, and will have stopped potential proliferation to terrorist groups in its tracks. ... This will be the first world crisis since the [COLOR=#366388 !important][COLOR=#366388 !important]end [COLOR=#366388 !important]of [/color][COLOR=#366388 !important]World [/color][COLOR=#366388 !important]War [/color][COLOR=#366388 !important]II[/color][/color][/color] where American power and prestige will not be used to intervene in order to prevent catastrophe. Obama is betting the farm that his worldview will be more conducive to defusing a crisis than the more realpolitik and pragmatic point of view that has dominated American foreign policy for 65 years. We are shortly going to find out whether good intentions really matter in international affairs."

• U.S., Israel, Iran Already Preparing Response Conservative blogger Allahpundit writes, "Pay attention to the part near the end where Goldberg writes about Iran keeping Hezbollah in reserve for a counterattack in case Israel strikes. According to an Arab newspaper, Israel nearly launched a large operation against Lebanon just last week, ostensibly as a reprisal for the recent border incident in which an Israeli soldier was killed. I wonder if there’s more to it than that, though, in light of the Atlantic piece: Clearly, the IDF will want to do something about Hezbollah’s missile cache before making its move on Iran. ... Meanwhile, Obama will have to plan for the risk of Iranian attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan in the wake of an Israeli strike. Whether that means accelerating withdrawal later this year or forcing some sort of change in tactics to better protect troops in the field I’ll leave to military readers to opine on."

The Case That Israel Won't Bomb Iran

• Israel Lacks Military Capability Think Progress' Matt Duss explains:
  There’s quite a lot that’s wrong with this calculus. Numerous analysts doubt that Israel is capable of carrying out a successful strike. As Brookings’ Ken Pollack wrote in his 2004 book The Persian Puzzle, “Given the size of the various Iranian nuclear facilities, it would not be possible for Israel to destroy all of them in a single raid as it did Osiraq. Nor would it be politically, militarily, or logistically possible for Israel to sustain multiple such strikes over the many days, if not weeks, it would take for all its F-151s to accomplish the job.”
  
  Likewise, a March 2009 study by [COLOR=#366388 !important][COLOR=#366388 !important]Anthony [COLOR=#366388 !important]Cordesman[/color][/color][/color] of the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that, while an Israeli strike was possible, “the number of aircraft required, refueling along the way and getting to the targets without being detected or intercepted would be complex and high risk and would lack any assurances that the overall mission will have a high success rate."
  

• Costs Clearly Outweigh Benefits New America Foundation's Steve Clemons, in a lengthy response, writes, "I have previously outlined my doubts about America's and Israel's willingness -- in the end -- to take military action against Iran. In short, the costs and blowback could be astonishingly, strategically high for the United States and Israel runs the risk of rupturing relations with its only key ally in the world by making a unilateral strategic choice for the United States ... My own hunch is that whether Israel is serious about striking Iran, or not - it wants the world, Iran's Mullahs, and President Obama to think it will. ... I think based on the interviews he has shared with all parties that more rational heads will prevail in finding a way to contain or redirect Iran's course. Otherwise, as in a simple game theory exercise, both Israel and the US may end up in the box of very worst outcomes with none of their basic strategic objectives achieved."

• Could Israel Be Bluffing? Politico's Ben Smith wonders, "The Israelis, obviously and openly, would prefer that the U.S. bomb Iran. ... There's a kind of unstated logic here that, if Israel is going to bomb Iran, the U.S. might as well do it itself. So one of the things the Obama administration is wrestling with is the degree to which Israeli tough talk is a bluff aimed at pushing the White House to action, and how, if it isn't a bluff, it should affect U.S. policy."

• Iran Not Seeking Second Holocaust Foreign Policy's Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett question the premise that Iran poses an immediate and existential threat to Israel. "The Islamic Republic is not Hitler's Germany, particularly regarding Jews. No matter how many anti-Zionist or even anti-Semitic quotes Gerecht, Goldberg, and others may marshal from Iranian politicians, inconvenient realities undermine the Islamic Republic/Third Reich analogy: Roughly 25,000-30,000 Jews continue living in Iran, with civil status equal to other Iranians and a constitutionally guaranteed parliamentary seat. It is illegal in the Islamic Republic for Muslims to consume alcohol --but Jews (and Christians) are permitted wine for religious ceremonies and personal consumption. Iranian politicians frequently question Israel's legitimacy and predict demographics will ultimately produce a 'one-state' solution in Palestine. It's true that [COLOR=#366388 !important][COLOR=#366388 !important]Iranian [COLOR=#366388 !important]President [/color][COLOR=#366388 !important]Mahmoud [/color][COLOR=#366388 !important]Ahmadinejad[/color][/color][/color] has made provocative statements questioning the Holocaust. But neither Ahmadinejad nor any other Iranian leader has threatened to destroy Israel by initiating military conflict."

• Suspiciously Vague 'Red Line' Blogger Patrick Disney writes, "Israel has not yet clearly defined its red lines. ... what they didn’t define clearly was any sort of triggering event. ... So what is the actual 'Point of No Return'? According to Goldberg’s sources, it’s an Iranian weapons 'capability.' But that is a vague and ephemeral term. ... as red lines go, this one leaves a lot to be desired. Which brings me to my second point. Odds are that Iran already has a covert enrichment facility separate from the one unveiled at Qom last year. ... As the threat of attack grows, however, the need for Iran to have a secret backup facility becomes more and more powerful." That is, the noisier the tough talk from Israel, the more likely Iran will prepare for an attack. So, if Israel is seriously preparing to strike, wouldn't a surprise attack be more effective?

 

[Blackhawk2001]

I suspect that, despite all the pundits' predictions, Israel will do what it feels is necessary to preserve itself, despite the risks, tactical and strategic, of success. They may pick their time, but they will do it.

 

[Regionnus Rattis]

Almost none of the Jews in modern Israel are descendants of the original Jews of Palestine thousands of years ago. Most of the Jews in Israel today are descendants of Europeans who had converted to Judaism in the Middle Ages (known as Khazar or Ashkenazi Jews).

The modern state of Israel today has the right to exist like any other nation, but it does not have the right to territorial conquest and control in the name of Zionism. So they have a right to retaliate if they feel that they are going to be attacked.

It will probably be more likely that the Saudis will attack Iran and shut them down, they are Persians and not Arabs of the land and will upset the delicate oil-flow out of the Mid-East

 

[Blackhawk2001]

Almost none of the Jews in modern Israel are descendants of the original Jews of Palestine thousands of years ago. Most of the Jews in Israel today are descendants of Europeans who had converted to Judaism in the Middle Ages (known as Khazar or Ashkenazi Jews).

The modern state of Israel today has the right to exist like any other nation, but it does not have the right to territorial conquest and control in the name of Zionism. So they have a right to retaliate if they feel that they are going to be attacked.

It will probably be more likely that the Saudis will attack Iran and shut them down, they are Persians and not Arabs of the land and will upset the delicate oil-flow out of the Mid-East

I won't argue with your first paragraph, however, whatever expansion of territory Israel has experienced has been as a result of unprovoked attack by up to 7 nations at once, not once, but three separate times (not counting the one time they pre-emptively attacked concentrations of troops on their borders). They are one of the few countries in the world who have neighbors who aren't shy about telling the world they want to destroy them, and get away with it to the extent that when they are attacked by wmds from across the neighboring borders, the rest of the world essentially tells them it's their fault.

The Saudis don't have the capability, either militarily or financially to attack Iran; they will continue to use whatever proxies they can manipulate to meet their strategic designs.

 

[Hawkeye]

Almost none of the Jews in modern Israel are descendants of the original Jews of Palestine thousands of years ago. Most of the Jews in Israel today are descendants of Europeans who had converted to Judaism in the Middle Ages (known as Khazar or Ashkenazi Jews).

I will question the accuracy of this statement. It seems the more recent genetic studies have concluded that there is no significant gentic variation among various Jewish populations to distinguish them from the emitic populations of the ME. I don't beleive the claims that European Jewss are the descendants of mass conversions of Khazars (or others) are supported by current evidence.

Not that it really matters, but...

 

[E5RANGER375]

i truely dont understand everyones facination with Israel. i simply dont care what they do or dont do, or if they get wiped out or not. They have big mouths and probly should be punched in it.

 

[Regionnus Rattis]

i truely dont understand everyones facination with Israel. i simply dont care what they do or dont do, or if they get wiped out or not. They have big mouths and probly should be punched in it.

Hey...only adding to the conversation here. I'm sitting bored to death on a conference call and have some free time whilst I listen to thee.

 

[NordicHeathenVinlander]

I won't argue with your first paragraph, however, whatever expansion of territory Israel has experienced has been as a result of unprovoked attack by up to 7 nations at once, not once, but three separate times (not counting the one time they pre-emptively attacked concentrations of troops on their borders).


They are one of the few countries in the world who have neighbors who aren't shy about telling the world they want to destroy them, and get away with it to the extent that when they are attacked by wmds from across the neighboring borders, the rest of the world essentially tells them it's their fault.

The Saudis don't have the capability, either militarily or financially to attack Iran; they will continue to use whatever proxies they can manipulate to meet their strategic designs.

Brother, you are aware that Israel birth was bore out of Terrorism and Genocide?

Google:

King David Hotel Bombing.

Irgun (Which has been denounced by Winston Churchhill, and doved an SS-like organization/Gastapo)

Desir Yassin Massacre (Of which the red cross reported babies were ripped out of they're pregnant (Palestinian) mothers bellies

Menachem Begin (Irgun member, later Israel PM)

Rahm Emmunal comes from a proud Irgun family.
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Anyways. onto the OP. I think there are some very good points. Good post, I'll rep when I got a reload.
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[NordicHeathenVinlander]

I will question the accuracy of this statement. It seems the more recent genetic studies have concluded that there is no significant gentic variation among various Jewish populations to distinguish them from the emitic populations of the ME. I don't beleive the claims that European Jewss are the descendants of mass conversions of Khazars (or others) are supported by current evidence.

Not that it really matters, but...

Im curious if this has something to do with displacement?


And mass conversion of non-Isrealites, i.e. the Edomites <------- Who gave Moses alot of trouble.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

Brother, you are aware that Israel birth was bore out of Terrorism and Genocide?

Google:

King David Hotel Bombing.

Irgun (Which has been denounced by Winston Churchhill, and doved an SS-like organization/Gastapo)

Desir Yassin Massacre (Of which the red cross reported babies were ripped out of they're pregnant (Palestinian) mothers bellies

Menachem Begin (Irgun member, later Israel PM)

Rahm Emmunal comes from a proud Irgun family.
================================================

Anyways. onto the OP. I think there are some very good points. Good post, I'll rep when I got a reload.
================================================

The only thing I remember about Irgun was that the Jews stuck to military targets.

If the Red Cross is providing the only documentation of the massacre, that's insufficient for me; they've been wrong plenty of times.

George Washington was a traitor and terrorist (the Colonists didn't fight fair) until the US won its freedom.

Rahm Emmanuel is an American by birth, AFAIK, and his family history means less to him, apparently, than it does to you.

 

[NordicHeathenVinlander]

The only thing I remember about Irgun was that the Jews stuck to military targets.

I had no idea women and children (civilians) were military targets.

If the Red Cross is providing the only documentation of the massacre, that's insufficient for me; they've been wrong plenty of times.

I believe there were other reports outside of the Red Cross, could be wrong, however, I have seen News resource cite the horrific crimes.

Anyhow, I would not doubt it. Irgun had to do what they had to strike terror in the hearts of Palestinians. Doesnt seem like a tactic that would not work in the short term.

George Washington was a traitor and terrorist (the Colonists didn't fight fair) until the US won its freedom.

Yes he sure was. But what does he have to do with Israel?

Rahm Emmanuel is an American by birth, AFAIK, and his family history means less to him, apparently, than it does to you.

Didnt stop him from serving in the Isreal Defense Force (As a civ), seems like by that action his family history may mean something to him.

I personally do not care, I only brought that up as an FYI, that America would allow the son of a terrorist to serve and advise our President so openly.

 

[88GT]

i truely dont understand everyones facination with Israel. i simply dont care what they do or dont do, or if they get wiped out or not. They have big mouths and probly should be punched in it.

Your sense of geopolitical reality seems to be really skewed.

 

[BloodEclipse]

I suspect that, despite all the pundits' predictions, Israel will do what it feels is necessary to preserve itself, despite the risks, tactical and strategic, of success. They may pick their time, but they will do it.

Agreed!

 

[j706]

I suspect that, despite all the pundits' predictions, Israel will do what it feels is necessary to preserve itself, despite the risks, tactical and strategic, of success. They may pick their time, but they will do it.

Yes they will. Israel will never allow Iran to have nukes. We shouldn't either.

 

[Hawkeye]

Your sense of geopolitical reality seems to be really skewed.

Agreed, 88, it never ceases to amaze me that people don't seem to realize (or care) that Israel is the only functioning democracy in the ME. Turkey may be in second place for this "honor" but the rest of the region falls pretty clearly short of this standard.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

Agreed, 88, it never ceases to amaze me that people don't seem to realize (or care) that Israel is the only functioning democracy in the ME. Turkey may be in second place for this "honor" but the rest of the region falls pretty clearly short of this standard.

Not even Turkey now. A pro-Sharia faction was elected some time ago and has steadily moved the country toward sectarian rule despite their constitutional prohibition against such.

 

[NordicHeathenVinlander]

Yes they will. Israel will never allow Iran to have nukes. We shouldn't either.

Neither the U.S, Israel, UN or anything Government/Organization has the Right to tell another Nation how to live.


If Iran wants Nuke technology, then perhaps Israel may just want an alliance with them.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

Neither the U.S, Israel, UN or anything Government/Organization has the Right to tell another Nation how to live.


If Iran wants Nuke technology, then perhaps Israel may just want an alliance with them.

You are absolutely right on all counts! Why, the occasional terrorist nuke will just be a minor inconvenience to the rest of the world. A small price to pay for universal national sovereignty. After all, what good would it have done if Britain and France had marched into Germany and prevented the Third Reich from re-arming in defiance of the Treaty of Versailles? Anarchy, I tell you!

 

[midget]

Neither the U.S, Israel, UN or anything Government/Organization has the Right to tell another Nation how to live.


If Iran wants Nuke technology, then perhaps Israel may just want an alliance with them.

Iran has already stated that they plan on removing Israel quite a few different times. So I think an alliance is out of the question.

Being isolationists will only lead to larger troubles...

 

[BloodEclipse]

Neither the U.S, Israel, UN or anything Government/Organization has the Right to tell another Nation how to live.


If Iran wants Nuke technology, then perhaps Israel may just want an alliance with them.

Yes just ignore your neighbor who hates you. Even though he has sworn to destroy you, your family and your home. Just overlook the fact that he is building a Trebuchet in the back yard.

Maybe you just haven't talked to him nice enough yet. Maybe he wants you to give him stuff so he won't follow through on his threats.
Better yet why don't you just abandon your home and go live somewhere else?