Turkey Votes To Turn Itself Into An Islamic Dictatorship

[T.Lex]

Turkish lira dropping, although not quite a free-fall. Erdogan is (mostly) blaming the US. Telling people to trade in their dollars, euros, and gold that they've been stashing for the good of the country.

A) I don't think they have much of that anymore.

2) That never works. It goes against human nature. Its a game theory thing.

 

[BugI02]

"There are various campaigns being carried out. Don't heed them," Erdogan said Thursday. "Don't forget, if they have their dollars, we have our people, our God. We are working hard. Look at what we were 16 years ago and look at us now," Erdogan told supporters.


On Friday afternoon Erdogan dug in again, calling for citizens to convert out of dollars and gold and buy the lira to help fight a "national struggle". In response, the currency renewed its sell-off. In his speech in the northeastern city of Bayburt, Erdogan added that he would decisively defend the country against economic attacks.


We've seen this show before. SMH

 

[Trigger Time]

Here we go. This is going to lead to a world war. The Islamic state will be one of those contributors and its gonna be ugly. However I know our side will prevail and the world is going to be safer for a longer while after its over and we stackem deep

 

[T.Lex]

Here we go. This is going to lead to a world war. The Islamic state will be one of those contributors and its gonna be ugly. However I know our side will prevail and the world is going to be safer for a longer while after its over and we stackem deep

There are a limited number of choices for where he can turn. Probably not us. Maybe Russia, but that'll have a REALLY high cost. China?

The only vector I can derive for this to turn into a world war (and I'll easily concede I'm not the most imaginative guy) is if Erdogan's collapse turns into an Assassination of Franz Ferdinand type situation. Russia/Syria move in on behalf of their interests. We move in with the Kurds in favor of our interests. And then things get bumpity. Even in that scenario, I think there will be a division of geography more than a full blown war.

Division, then proxies.

Everything old is new again.

 

[BugI02]

Here we go. This is going to lead to a world war. The Islamic state will be one of those contributors and its gonna be ugly. However I know our side will prevail and the world is going to be safer for a longer while after its over and we stackem deep

"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." - Albert Einstein

 

[T.Lex]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45123607

Trump toggles up the tariffs on Turkey.

Whatever's going to happen, Trump is looking to make it happen sooner rather than later.

Not sure if this is kicking a guy when he's down, or pushing an enemy further into retreat. And by "retreat" I mean further into alliances with our enemies.

 

[BugI02]

I'm not adverse to pushing Turkey into instability/collapse before Erdogan can consolidate his push toward religious dictatorship

I also think it proper to give them a lesson in what it means to make the US an adversary. They haven't been much of an ally since their bid to enter the EU was put on hold, and they have acted like they could be as much of a PIA as they want in the Levant and there wasn't much we could do about it.

But I harbor this viewpoint as one who is not responsible for the fallout, and even I can't divine the end game here (or if there even is one)

 

[BugI02]

Maybe it's an attempt to get Iran to call or raise? If they prop up the Turks, it's a further drain on their resources. If they don't, maybe it more accurately indicates how much strain they are under. Either way, it could be a test case of our Iran strategy and an object lesson for Tehran at the same time

 

[Dead Duck]

So-
A Turkey Shoot just before Thanksgiving.


I'm In.

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, I'm kinda ambivalent on whether our move is "right" or not. I think it is at least consistent with what appears to be a new Trump Doctrine of aggressively pushing every advantage whether it is helpful in the long run or not. It is also plausible that this is an increase of pressure meant to address the specific situation of the US pastor being held. He has now put more horses in the barn for some horsetrading.

I'm kinda ok with that. I'm more in line with the Israeli approach; we can afford to give up a whole bunch for just a few of our own citizens. Our people are more important to us than theirs.

 

[BugI02]

Well, it worked OK for Zuckerberg

"Move fast and break things. Unless you are breaking stuff, you are not moving fast enough."

 

[GIJEW]

It's my impression that the turks are acting in their own interests on a tactical level as if they don't have any need for real alliances with anybody:

*Supporting the sunni insurgency against assad, as if cooperating with the west against russia/syria/iran, except for attacking the kurds...

*Assisting the west in confronting russia's increased role/presence in syria by shooting down a russian jet that was providing close air support against sunni insurgents--but next to turkey's border--and later making a deal for the latest/greatest in russian AA missiles

*passing off a million refugees from syria (and elsewhere) onto europe in retaliation for not getting EU membership

*ending turkey's adhoc alliance with israel and instead, maintaining a campaign of political warfare against israel even though israel is the primary obstacle to iran getting a consolidated presence in syria. iran establishing shia hegemony across the ME and in particular on turkey's border, is surely a real issue for them--especially since erdogan would reestablish the ottoman empire if he could have his way

Historically, turkey has been the enemy of just about everyone around them: armenians, kurds, arabs, jews, russians, greeks, persians. In an area where diplomacy 101 says: "my enemy's enemy is my friend...until he isn't", turkey's back is liable to resemble a voodoo doll. They're financially vulnerable too.

Given that turkey was included in NATO to secure the caucacus front against the USSR, and that now they're getting cozy with the russians; have worked against the interests/efforts of western coalitions in the past and present; have worked to destabilize europe by sending about a million refugees there; expelling them from NATO might be a good idea.



*

 

[T.Lex]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45179673

Turkish lira continues to crash.

Erdogan almost comes out and says he's going to turn to Russia and China, away from the US, for help. I can't imagine they will still be part of NATO next year.

 

[BugI02]

Wouldn't it just be simpler to "Let my pastor go"?

Something hubris something something a tumble

 

[T.Lex]

Turkish lira rebounding after $15B loan from Qatar. (Which, in the greater scheme of things, isn't a whole lot.)

But, it is significant because Qatar has its own issues - with us and other gulf states - and has been cultivating a relationship with Turkey anyway. But, it represents a further policy separation from us, too.