Trump 2024 ???

[KLB]

Unless, during redistricting, big cities are cut up like pies with sections of urban areas married to suburban sections to create numerous competitive districts, I don't see how the machines can be taken apart or even how to prevent CHI and NYC situations where they dominate politics for the whole state

They dominate politics in the state, because they have the majority of the population. There is no way to split them up with other parts of the state that would result in more red wins. It would only cause more blue wins.

 

[KG1]

See IngoMike's post about Trump's won/lost record. Granted we lost some races we wanted to win (and you are exclusively focused on that), but if the condition of the country wasn't sufficient to motivate people to change things up then the messaging problem is far bigger than can be blamed on Trump

If enough votes could be harvested to put a stroked out mutant in the senate, do you really think a hedge fund CEO would have done enough better to get the win? The whinging seems to be more about Trump's endorsement actually being effective at getting that person into the election, but the primary is the PEOPLE'S choice for a candidate so why blame just Trump - Oh, yeah, that's right

In Georgia, the vote in this run-off exceeded all previous vote numbers except the 2020 run-off, including the 2020 presidential vote. I would submit that that was more about retaining control of the senate for Democrats when it was already known that they lost the house than any sort of Trump animus. I'm not saying that didn't exist but I doubt it was a dominant force

I think McConnell deserves far more blame for these outcomes than you are willing to assign, including publicly dissing the candidates he didn't like (mostly America First types) and pulling funding from winnable races as well as deploying funding against viable AF challengers (Alaska). Was it the senate minority leader's job to do anything other than strive to win with the candidates THE PEOPLE gave him?

I think you're spot on about McConnell. Everything wasn't all about Trump. There were many factors in this election cycle. You'll get no argument from me there.

 

[KLB]

Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schartzenegger disapprove of this post

No Jesse Ventura or Al Franken?

 

[foszoe]

You mean like Kari Lake, an unapologetic America First candidate who comes from nowhere to LOSE TO her opponent for governor in Arizona ?

FiXY

 

[BugI02]

You don't seem to grasp the important difference between Trump _endorsing_ somebody, and Trump _picking_ somebody. I would wager a significant number of those candidates Trump "endorsed" were already going to win their primaries and go on to victory anyway, regardless whether Trump endorsed them or not. But they still get counted as part of Trump's "victory" tally, according to your sources, whether he was the difference-maker or not.

In the case of Oz and Herschel Walker, Trump didn't just "endorse" those guys. He "made" those guys. In Oz's case, Trump basically blew another GOP primary candidate out of the water by endorsing a TV doctor. Oz wouldn't have been the candidate without Trump's endorsement.

When you look at the 2 key races where Trump "made" the candidate - as opposed to just jumping on the bandwagons of candidates destined to win anyway - he went 0-for2.

If Trump is killing it so good, then we shouldn't be worse off in the Senate than we were 6 weeks ago.

Trump needs to get back to "making" top-notch candidate picks. A certain guy in Florida comes to mind. It can be done. But Herschel f'ing Walker? Geez, people.

How DeSantis-endorsed candidates fared nationally

Most of the candidates he backed overlapped with Trump, with a few notable exceptions.

www.tampabay.com

DeSantis’ national endorsements overlapped heavily with Trump’s, [Oops!] with a few notable exceptions of candidates who have backed away from full-throated support of the former president.

That includes former Maine Gov. Paul LePage, who was seeking his old job back. LePage, famous for being bombastic and often offensive, once called himself “Donald Trump before Donald Trump became popular.” But in his 2022 campaign, he shied away from the former president, who did not endorse him. LePage lost to incumbent Democratic Gov. Janet Mills.

LePage also has direct ties to Florida: he and his wife have owned two homes in Ormond Beach. The New York Times raised questions about those houses when it revealed that LePage received homestead exemptions in Florida while living in the Maine governor’s mansion, even though such exemptions are supposed to be for permanent state residents. [Careful vetting, I see - or perhaps cronyism?]

 

[manifest destiny]

Where are the empirical data that prove endorsements make a difference? We (the collective of the electorate) often attribute wins and losses to endorsements. But where and how can it be quantified? If we declare his endorsement as the kiss of death for those who lost, we must also declare those who won with his endorsement as the kiss of success. I don't believe either of those are true.

 

[Ingomike]

So then why did you endorse Herschel Walker in GA and then throw him under the bus? Why did you **** a pornstar by proxy while your proxy wife is pregnant with your proxy kid?

If Trump’s your proxy, he’s a proxy for the bad with the good. But then you’d have to admit there is some bad.

You know there is a better way. A way you can retain conscientious consistency.

A proxy is not me, he is a representative of what they will do to me when they get down to me…

Bit you got to dream about boinking stormy again so it is a win for you…

 

[Ingomike]

Well ****. I expect a Republican of any stripe, CoC, Neocon, or Trumper to win in red states. How’d they do in the races that really mattered?

Rephrased: but,but, but…

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I’d go further with that and say it put weaker candidates to compete in a market where Trump’s endorsement is a liability.

I'd go even further and call it Trump "clown car" of primary picks over competent candidates in otherwise winnable, competitive races.

Unless I'm forgetting someone, only JD Vance won... out of how many Trump hand-picked into the primaries? Not counting those he picked who lost, THANK GOD, in the primaries.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

See IngoMike's post about Trump's won/lost record. Granted we lost some races we wanted to win (and you are exclusively focused on that),

Yes, because of "little things"... like the Senate majority... and manageable House majority...

Those "little things" that WINNING competitive races bring.

Gee, I'm so glad that Trump hand-picked Herschel Walker for Georgia... where we only hoped to win.

Thank goodness he **** all over popular former AZ governor Ducey about the Senate race, because he could never win a statewide race.

Etc.

Trump hand-picked a stable of LOSERS!

 

[manifest destiny]

Trump backed candidate A.
Ducey backed candidate B.
A beat B.
Then, after four score and 7 years of vote counting, Arizona swore in candidate C.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

You mean like Kari Lake, an unapologetic America First candidate who comes from nowhere to almost beat her opponent for governor in Arizona despite her opponent also being in charge of the election and refusing to investigate irregularities including an opaque, excruciatingly long counting process, tabulators that wouldn't accept voting machine produced ballots, the unexplained long term outage of cameras meant to oversee counting in the most populous county, and then overruling one of the other state counties (Cochise) that refused to certify the election results?

Just think what she could have done in a free and fair election. Now, put on your thinking cap - is Trump in charge of election procedures in any state? So, is it his fault when ... suspicious activity, shall we say ... potentially affects an election outcome? Do you think anyone Lake beat in the primary had a better chance to win in Arizona? If so, who? Do you think Lake could have gotten as far as she did without Trump's endorsement?

As an infamous INGOer is wont to say, blaming only Trump is binary thinking. Trump's endorsement got MANY candidates a primary win

Just think what she could have done if she wasn't towing Trump's "stolen election" baggage?

 

[manifest destiny]

This is from Ballotpedia...

Endorsements by Donald Trump, 2018-2022
Election year	Total endorsements	Primary endorsements	Primary success rate	General election endorsements	General election success rate
2022	495	241	93%	254	83%
2021	6	3	100%	3	67%
2020	303	121	97%	182	78%
2019	14	5	80%	9	67%
2018	132	37	95%	95	59%
Note: This table does not include endorsements made in presidential elections.

[show]Endorsements overview (2017)​

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Trump backed candidate A.
Ducey backed candidate B.
A beat B.
Then, after four score and 7 years of vote counting, Arizona swore in candidate C.

A LOST.

Ducey didn't even enter the race, thanks in no small part to Trump declaring he would NEVER endorse Ducey.

Trump **** on him from noon to Sunday because he wouldn't throw AZ in 2020. The local news before Trumps visit in January:

Trump says he will never endorse Ducey for Senate ahead of Arizona visit

The former president said Friday he will never support Gov. Doug Ducey's rumored ambitions for federal office.

www.12news.com

"Rumors are that Doug Ducey, the weak RINO Governor from Arizona, is being pushed by Old Crow Mitch McConnell to run for the U.S. Senate," Trump said in a statement. "He will never have my endorsement or the support of MAGA Nation!"

Or maybe Ducey is the rare unicorn term limited popular governor who just plain isn't interested in the Senate.

Or maybe Trump **** all over a very, very likely winner... he prefers a Dem AZ senator over a Senator Ducey.

Plain and simple.

Chuck Schumer chuckles and silently thank Trump.

 

[Ingomike]

I would go even further than that and say it was a lack of good judgment on Trump's part to endorse such flawed candidates. His reason for endorsing them was primarily because he thought they would be widely popular due to their "celebrity" status, and it would carry them over to victory. Didn't happen. Thier "celebrity " status didn't mean **** in the end.

Heads you win, tails I lose, that is what you are saying. Some of those Trump endorsed stood beside him so he was loyal. If he is loyal and endorses those that stand by him, but are not what some want he is a bad guy, if he dumps those loyal to him he is a bad guy.

 

[manifest destiny]

So Trump is all powerful or he is not? Your claim is Trump prevented Ducey with his influence, but couldn't carry Lake with his influence. It all gets so confusing. What's not confusing is Trump's 83% success rate in general elections.

 

[Ingomike]

How many of those were for seats that were highly contested?

What is the record?

 

[foszoe]

What is the record?

Losing the Senate and control of the House by a smaller margin than anyone thought.

How many of those were for seats that were highly contested?

 

[KG1]

Heads you win, tails I lose, that is what you are saying. Some of those Trump endorsed stood beside him so he was loyal. If he is loyal and endorses those that stand by him, but are not what some want he is a bad guy, if he dumps those loyal to him he is a bad guy.

I won't argue that he might have endorsed them because they were loyal. Endorsing a candidate just because they are loyal still doesn't mean he didn't endorse a **** candidate. Endorsing based on loyalty alone aint gonna cut it.

 

[jamil]

You mean like Kari Lake, an unapologetic America First candidate who comes from nowhere to almost beat her opponent for governor in Arizona despite her opponent also being in charge of the election and refusing to investigate irregularities including an opaque, excruciatingly long counting process, tabulators that wouldn't accept voting machine produced ballots, the unexplained long term outage of cameras meant to oversee counting in the most populous county, and then overruling one of the other state counties (Cochise) that refused to certify the election results?

Just think what she could have done in a free and fair election. Now, put on your thinking cap - is Trump in charge of election procedures in any state? So, is it his fault when ... suspicious activity, shall we say ... potentially affects an election outcome? Do you think anyone Lake beat in the primary had a better chance to win in Arizona? If so, who? Do you think Lake could have gotten as far as she did without Trump's endorsement?

As an infamous INGOer is wont to say, blaming only Trump is binary thinking. Trump's endorsement got MANY candidates a primary win

Well let’s look at the whole picture then. In Kari Lake’s case it’s pretty obvious what happened. Would she have won had it not been for the thumbs on scales? Probably. But maybe not.

Trump endorsees won where they’re expected to win.