Is it a population threshold that triggers violent crime or what?

[Gunmetalgray]

Lafayette seems to have long ago crossed the threshold of shots fired events becoming regular occurrences. Is it a guarantee that once a town/city hits a certain population that shots fired, i.e. violent crime events, becomes commonplace? If so what's the magic number? Lafayette is about 72K people, Muncie 67K, Anderson 55K, all have their issues. Are there any towns in Indiana without this problem? Seems like if someone's looking for land that is not near this type of activity, that focusing on areas with population below some threshold could be a good criteria, but maybe oversimplified, or, maybe not. Thoughts?

The article below is unremarkable, just an example of what's become a regular headline. Always funny though how they add the moronic statement at the end... bla, bla, 'no arrests, no suspects in custody, still at large, but police say there is no danger to the public'. Oh, whew, what a relief, eye roll.
https://www.wlfi.com/news/lafayette...cle_6d25a3c8-32a7-11ee-a1ff-43ee5b46bfe1.html

 

[Ark]

Nah, it's not population, it's percentage. Once you go past a certain percentage of Amish the lead just starts flying.

 

[jwamplerusa]

It is not the population density, it is the population's behavior, or more precisely the tolerance for bad behavior by the general citizenry. Additional causal factors are usually related to the local government and its willingness to take punitive action to stop uncivilized behavior.

There is adequate documentation that in most locales, a small minority of the population creates the majority of violent crime. Localities which recognize this and aggressively police that small minority and keep them incarcerated for as long as possible have reduced their violent crime rate. There are two factors at play, which can be more than additive. The first is that the incarcerated do not commit additional violent crime. The second is the reduction in violent crime upon other criminals reduces revenge violence among the criminal class.

Interestingly, when you run searches via Google and Brave you get substantially different results. On Google everything has a race link. Brave some of the first hits are straight academic studies which directly address the topic (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3969807/)

"Conclusions​

The majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number of persistent violent offenders, typically males, characterized by early onset of violent criminality, substance abuse, personality disorders, and nonviolent criminality."​

In the U.S. pre 1980ish many of these perpetrators were housed in asylums, juvenile detention centers, or had enough of their anti-social behavior beat out of them in their youth to make them less of a problem to society in general. Since then we have shuttered many of the mental institutions, the indigent farms, destroyed the family structure, and made other "social welfare" and "social justice" governance changes which removed many of the bulwarks which reduced the quantity of the criminally violent walking among us.

These feral humans concentrate where there are victims and customers, thus the increase in violent crime in urbanish areas. Remove them from the otherwise primarily civilized community and things will improve. If you don't, they only continue to get worse as the territory and reprisal wars escalate. (looking at you Ryan Mears and the Indianapolis CCC and Executive branch, along with the Marion county Judiciary)

 

[nipprdog]

Lafayette is NOT the city that I grew up in.

 

[Jaybird1980]

It is not the population density, it is the population's behavior, or more precisely the tolerance for bad behavior by the general citizenry. Additional causal factors are usually related to the local government and its willingness to take punitive action to stop uncivilized behavior.

There is adequate documentation that in most locales, a small minority of the population creates the majority of violent crime. Localities which recognize this and aggressively police that small minority and keep them incarcerated for as long as possible have reduced their violent crime rate. There are two factors at play, which can be more than additive. The first is that the incarcerated do not commit additional violent crime. The second is the reduction in violent crime upon other criminals reduces revenge violence among the criminal class.

Interestingly, when you run searches via Google and Brave you get substantially different results. On Google everything has a race link. Brave some of the first hits are straight academic studies which directly address the topic (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3969807/)

"Conclusions​

The majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number of persistent violent offenders, typically males, characterized by early onset of violent criminality, substance abuse, personality disorders, and nonviolent criminality."​

In the U.S. pre 1980ish many of these perpetrators were housed in asylums, juvenile detention centers, or had enough of their anti-social behavior beat out of them in their youth to make them less of a problem to society in general. Since then we have shuttered many of the mental institutions, the indigent farms, destroyed the family structure, and made other "social welfare" and "social justice" governance changes which removed many of the bulwarks which reduced the quantity of the criminally violent walking among us.

These feral humans concentrate where there are victims and customers, thus the increase in violent crime in urbanish areas. Remove them from the otherwise primarily civilized community and things will improve. If you don't, they only continue to get worse as the territory and reprisal wars escalate. (looking at you Ryan Mears and the Indianapolis CCC and Executive branch, along with the Marion county Judiciary)

This exactly.

Once the bad actors know that they can run amok without any consequence then it's a free for all. They start pushing it more and more.

The bad policies, soft on crime, making excuses for the criminals, putting up statues and paintings of the criminals, that's the **** that encourages them.

Change the policies and treat them like the criminals they are and things may change. It wasn't long ago you were shamed for being a miscreant, we need to get back to that.

 

[ditcherman]

I know from experience that if you put just the right amount of pigs in a pen they get along and grow and you have bacon (for INGO to put on their pineapple pizza).
If you put too many pigs in the pen, the bullies chew many of the others tails off before moving to the ears of the weakest ones, killing them.
Seen it over and over.
Not very scientific, but sometimes the simple answers are the most elegant.
I see no difference between pigs and humans sometimes.

 

[Jaybird1980]

I know from experience that if you put just the right amount of pigs in a pen they get along and grow and you have bacon (for INGO to put on their pineapple pizza).
If you put too many pigs in the pen, the bullies chew many of the others tails off before moving to the ears of the weakest ones, killing them.
Seen it over and over.
Not very scientific, but sometimes the simple answers are the most elegant.
I see no difference between pigs and humans sometimes.

Exactly.

Remove the bullies and the other coexist just fine.

 

[ditcherman]

Exactly.

Remove the bullies and the other coexist just fine.

Yes, but you can also just give them the room they need and they don't act out so bad. Probably still have a hierarchy thing going but no one gets chewed on or dies.

I'd bet the social engineers know what this number is and enjoy watching from afar.

ETA: when you see it start and thin them out, you probably take the weak pigs or the average ones, and then the bullies stop.
That's just pigs though, there could easily be learned, addictive behavior in people that makes my theory weak or incomplete.

 

[MindfulMan]

Population growth will continue to cause serious problems in many areas.
Currently, the worth population is 7.8 billion, but it's predicted to reach 9.8 billion by 2050.
Hang onto your hats ! After adding the population equivalent of two Chinas, in just 25 years, things are bound to get worse.

 

[Ark]

It is not the population density, it is the population's behavior, or more precisely the tolerance for bad behavior by the general citizenry. Additional causal factors are usually related to the local government and its willingness to take punitive action to stop uncivilized behavior.

There is adequate documentation that in most locales, a small minority of the population creates the majority of violent crime. Localities which recognize this and aggressively police that small minority and keep them incarcerated for as long as possible have reduced their violent crime rate. There are two factors at play, which can be more than additive. The first is that the incarcerated do not commit additional violent crime. The second is the reduction in violent crime upon other criminals reduces revenge violence among the criminal class.

Interestingly, when you run searches via Google and Brave you get substantially different results. On Google everything has a race link. Brave some of the first hits are straight academic studies which directly address the topic (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3969807/)

"Conclusions​

The majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number of persistent violent offenders, typically males, characterized by early onset of violent criminality, substance abuse, personality disorders, and nonviolent criminality."​

In the U.S. pre 1980ish many of these perpetrators were housed in asylums, juvenile detention centers, or had enough of their anti-social behavior beat out of them in their youth to make them less of a problem to society in general. Since then we have shuttered many of the mental institutions, the indigent farms, destroyed the family structure, and made other "social welfare" and "social justice" governance changes which removed many of the bulwarks which reduced the quantity of the criminally violent walking among us.

These feral humans concentrate where there are victims and customers, thus the increase in violent crime in urbanish areas. Remove them from the otherwise primarily civilized community and things will improve. If you don't, they only continue to get worse as the territory and reprisal wars escalate. (looking at you Ryan Mears and the Indianapolis CCC and Executive branch, along with the Marion county Judiciary)

Preach. Particularly this paragraph:

"Conclusions
The majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number of persistent violent offenders, typically males, characterized by early onset of violent criminality, substance abuse, personality disorders, and nonviolent criminality."

Do such people tend to be one color more often in one place than another? Yes. So what? There are plenty of people that color who aren't criminals. So ignore what their skin looks like and stomp your boot on the neck of the small number of INDIVIDUALS doing all the crimes!

 

[manifest destiny]

After adding the population equivalent of two Chinas, in just 25 years

That really puts it in perspective, doesn't it? Just plainly stating an increase from 7.8 to 9.8 doesn't really sound like much. But when considered in the terms you state, two Chinas, it really demonstrates the scale of such population growth.

 

[Jaybird1980]

Yes, but you can also just give them the room they need and they don't act out so bad. Probably still have a hierarchy thing going but no one gets chewed on or dies.

I'd bet the social engineers know what this number is and enjoy watching from afar.

ETA: when you see it start and thin them out, you probably take the weak pigs or the average ones, and then the bullies stop.
That's just pigs though, there could easily be learned, addictive behavior in people that makes my theory weak or incomplete.

Those places tend to be called the ghettos in the human world. They become there own little patch of violence and criminal activity that breeds more criminals, and sooner or later they outgrow their area and expand it.

 

[Leo]

People are pretty adaptable, and not subject to animalistic consequences unless you raise them to act like animals.

The law of sowing and reaping is always in effect.

If you sow poor moral education, remove consequence of moral failure,
financially subsidize the unproductive by stealing from the productive and law abiding, fail to punish lawbreakers, fail to hang capital offenders, etc., you can only reap what every major city is today. Sow sin, reap destruction.

For some reason every democratic machine in every major city seems to embrace sowing the very things that cause the collapse of society. Maybe it is because that a society under decay is far easier to steal from.

"for lack of justice, the people's hearts grow sick"

 

[MCgrease08]

I live in Fishers currently but will be moving to Lafayette in October. Fishers has a higher population that Lafayette, yet has just a fraction of the crime. Fishers is also a pretty diverse population despite what some may think. But the diversity is largely driven by immigrants from India, Asian and Middle Eastern countries, not via transplants looking to escape outstanding warrants they have in Chicago.

 

[Leo]

Those places tend to be called the ghettos in the human world. They become there own little patch of violence and criminal activity that breeds more criminals, and sooner or later they outgrow their area and expand it.

Richie (the punk) Daley spent a truckload of money on a scattered site housing experiment. The idea was that if you put public housing people into stable neighborhoods they would not "have to" act like thugs. Every stable neighborhood where the problems from the housing projects were inserted, quickly became very troubled, some failed and never recovered. (My house was one of them) Many apartment buildings that housed stable and peaceful citizens, became crime infested and now sit vacant. Once again, the productive, law abiding citizens lost everything while the democrap machine grew richer.

Responsible, hard working people with jobs just cannot keep up with taxpayer supported, immoral people who have all day and all night, 365 days a year to kill, steal and destroy. Sadly, in that mix are a small percentage of people that would like to change, but they are terrified to take a stand and terrified to help the Police, even if they saw the whole crime happen. They are often torn because they have a child or grandchild involved.

 

[Gunmetalgray]

So the ol 'one bad apple will spoil the whole bushel' still rings true, for produce and people. Remove the bad one soon enough and the rest will not become rotten. Sure seems like a pretty easy solution if in fact a small percentage of repeat offenders are the ones committing the vast majority of violent crimes.

 

[mmpsteve]

... Sure seems like a pretty easy solution if in fact a small percentage of repeat offenders are the ones committing the vast majority of violent crimes.

You're not wrong, but ....

Your premise is contingent upon pure and proper motives (fixing the problem), by those in power, on whatever level you care to examine.

There are huge tax dollars being spent, and greedily accepted, by those who position themselves to take advantage of the easy money under the current flawed system. Makes it difficult for any properly-motivated individuals to make headway against that system.

.

 

[ditcherman]

Those places tend to be called the ghettos in the human world. They become there own little patch of violence and criminal activity that breeds more criminals, and sooner or later they outgrow their area and expand it.

People are pretty adaptable, and not subject to animalistic consequences unless you raise them to act like animals.

The law of sowing and reaping is always in effect.

If you sow poor moral education, remove consequence of moral failure,
financially subsidize the unproductive by stealing from the productive and law abiding, fail to punish lawbreakers, fail to hang capital offenders, etc., you can only reap what every major city is today. Sow sin, reap destruction.

For some reason every democratic machine in every major city seems to embrace sowing the very things that cause the collapse of society. Maybe it is because that a society under decay is far easier to steal from.

"for lack of justice, the people's hearts grow sick"

I guess where my example doesn’t work is that in 6 months the hogs go to slaughter, they’re not influenced by the next bunch.
I still think there’s something to the nature of overcrowding though, even if it doesn’t translate perfectly.

 

[Gunmetalgray]

You're not wrong, but ....

Your premise is contingent upon pure and proper motives (fixing the problem), by those in power, on whatever level you care to examine.

There are huge tax dollars being spent, and greedily accepted, by those who position themselves to take advantage of the easy money under the current flawed system. Makes it difficult for any properly-motivated individuals to make headway against that system.

.

Too true. They operate on the premise of never let a good crisis go to waste. Crime isn't even seen as a problem once they start receiving gov $$ handouts to 'fix' it. Only solution is to cut off gov's access to other people's money, and good luck with that.

 

[Hoosierdood]

Size has nothing to do with it. For comparison, I will take 2 cities that are 30 minutes apart - Holland and Muskegon MI.

I live in Holland MI. Population 34,024. Median income is $65,071. Poverty rate is 8.78%. Racial makeup is White (87%), Hispanic (6.21%), Black (1.2%), Other (2.6%). Home ownership is 84.4%. Crime rate 1:55.

Muskegon MI population is 37,317. Median income is $35,323. Poverty rate is 25%. Racial makeup is White (49.5%), Black (31.6%), Hispanic (10.3%), Other (6.07%). Home ownership is 49.9%. Crime rate is 1:31.

Two cities about 30 minutes apart, and roughly same population. Very different crime rates.