How Long To Put Up With All This Turmoil? Is A Silent Majority About To Speak?

[Ingomike]

The list is long and the tension keeps getting ratcheted up, and up, and up. Since the campaign of 2016 the media has famed the flames of any fire they find.

Russia Collusion

Kavanaugh

Impeachment

Covid-19

Riots

just to name the big ones.

Appears to me that the Trump reelection campaign is a proxy for the culture war that has escalated exponentially in the last couple of years.

Is the silent majority growing and about to speak in the coming elections? Or will the left make a surge?

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

I keep seeing Trump is double-digits behind Biden in the polls. If the November elections are to be the silent majority speaking up, then they’re certainly not saying so in the current polling.

 

[T.Lex]

After the 2016 cycle, I'm not sure we can really trust the polling. Trump does indeed have a statistically meaningful number of supporters who don't admit it to pollsters, or really anyone outside their circle of friends/family.

To the extent polls can provide some insight, it will be in the battleground states that Trump (surprisingly) won in 2016 that were usually blue.

But, Trump's electoral college calculus is IMHO a different question than your "silent majority" question. I actually think the majority of Americans support the peaceful protests and would like to see some (abstract) changes to prevent police abuses against minorities. That's an easy thing to support.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

After the 2016 cycle, I'm not sure we can really trust the polling. Trump does indeed have a statistically meaningful number of supporters who don't admit it to pollsters, or really anyone outside their circle of friends/family.

To the extent polls can provide some insight, it will be in the battleground states that Trump (surprisingly) won in 2016 that were usually blue.

But, Trump's electoral college calculus is IMHO a different question than your "silent majority" question. I actually think the majority of Americans support the peaceful protests and would like to see some (abstract) changes to prevent police abuses against minorities. That's an easy thing to support.

I saw some polling reported that (in one poll) a rather large majority supported the day-to-day performance of their LEOs...even minorities. In another reported yesterday, over half the folks responded agreed with the actions they’ve seen by the police in response to the riots or thought they should be more aggressive. I’m not disagreeing with your point about how many would support some changes but moreso pointing out that the desire to see complete dismantling is doesn’t appear to be there.

 

[T.Lex]

I saw some polling reported that (in one poll) a rather large majority supported the day-to-day performance of their LEOs...even minorities. In another reported yesterday, over half the folks responded agreed with the actions they’ve seen by the police in response to the riots or thought they should be more aggressive. I’m not disagreeing with your point about how many would support some changes but moreso pointing out that the desire to see complete dismantling is doesn’t appear to be there.

Oh yeah, totally agree with that last point.

There's no way the majority (or even a significant minority) of Americans want to actually disband the police.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Oh yeah, totally agree with that last point.

There's no way the majority (or even a significant minority) of Americans want to actually disband the police.

Seems as though, like usual, it’s the noisiest, most radical and violent segments that are driving the narrative. Hopefully, something in the news cycle will change the conversation before real damage is done by the politicians chasing the latest political winds. (Of course, it’s more likely than not that the next news cycle will be more...volatile than this one).

 

[DadSmith]

Oh yeah, totally agree with that last point.

There's no way the majority (or even a significant minority) of Americans want to actually disband the police.

Only anarchist groups and criminals would benefit from no police.

 

[T.Lex]

Only anarchist groups and criminals would benefit from no police.

I think private security companies, home security companies, and fence manufacturers will do pretty well, too.

 

[BugI02]

The list is long and the tension keeps getting ratcheted up, and up, and up. Since the campaign of 2016 the media has famed the flames of any fire they find.

Russia Collusion

Kavanaugh

Impeachment

Covid-19

Riots

just to name the big ones.

Appears to me that the Trump reelection campaign is a proxy for the culture war that has escalated exponentially in the last couple of years.

Is the silent majority growing and about to speak in the coming elections? Or will the left make a surge?

I have seen a recent poll that found 72% of respondents have a positive view of their own police department

I have read an analysis, admittedly commissioned by Parscale, that the CNN poll showing Biden with a 14% lead suffers from the same systematic errors that led to polling showing Clinton would win by 8% (IIRC). The percentage that that poll shows Biden garnering (55%) is so high that few actual election winners have come close, with the last being the Reagan landslide in 1984 at 58.8%

I absolutely know, from personal experience, that many people reflexively do not indicate an overt preference for Trump because of the grief it engenders. I have had to excise people from my electronic life who only wish to endlessly argue that Orange Man Bad

It will a shock no one to learn that I haven't lost faith in Trump and believe that many people see Biden for the opportunistic panderer that he really is. To the somewhat valid criticism that Trump pandered also, I would point out that Trump has largely delivered on what he promised whereas Biden has a long record of empty pandering and I don't see him suddenly 'getting religion' on delivering on campaign positions. I think it will be a close election with conservatives energized by the yawning abyss of lawlessness and socialism and progressives energized by the tantalizing closeness (they think) of the socialist paradise and the end of the bad orange man. I believe that a bedrock American predilection for who we are and where we have been going will win out in the end and the more the forces advocating radicalism and dissolution overplay their hand, the better

The hope is that we don't have to live through our own French Revolution in order to learn the undesirability of its ultimately destructive excesses, but I wouldn't stop buying guns and ammunition just yet

 

[Ingomike]

I keep seeing Trump is double-digits behind Biden in the polls. If the November elections are to be the silent majority speaking up, then they’re certainly not saying so in the current polling.

But the sneaky thing about a silent majority is they are pretty quiet... I think TLex summed it up well. In another thread I posted that Trump has a 41% approval among black likely voters, in all this turmoil. I also think at some point fatigue will set in and the public just will not respond to the stimuli. This off the charts turmoil is likely pushing some both ways, but I think the side against Antifa is getting bigger...

 

[MCgrease08]

Let's also consider the fact that despite their willingness to take to the streets in protest (or to riot), young people can't be counted on to show up to the polls to actually vote.

I do think a significant portion of the Bernie Bros will stay home rather than give their support to Biden.

 

[Ingomike]

I have seen a recent poll that found 72% of respondents have a positive view of their own police department

I have read an analysis, admittedly commissioned by Parscale, that the CNN poll showing Biden with a 14% lead suffers from the same systematic errors that led to polling showing Clinton would win by 8% (IIRC). The percentage that that poll shows Biden garnering (55%) is so high that few actual election winners have come close, with the last being the Reagan landslide in 1984 at 58.8%

I absolutely know, from personal experience, that many people reflexively do not indicate an overt preference for Trump because of the grief it engenders. I have had to excise people from my electronic life who only wish to endlessly argue that Orange Man Bad

It will a shock no one to learn that I haven't lost faith in Trump and believe that many people see Biden for the opportunistic panderer that he really is. To the somewhat valid criticism that Trump pandered also, I would point out that Trump has largely delivered on what he promised whereas Biden has a long record of empty pandering and I don't see him suddenly 'getting religion' on delivering on campaign positions. I think it will be a close election with conservatives energized by the yawning abyss of lawlessness and socialism and progressives energized by the tantalizing closeness (they think) of the socialist paradise and the end of the bad orange man. I believe that a bedrock American predilection for who we are and where we have been going will win out in the end and the more the forces advocating radicalism and dissolution overplay their hand, the better

The hope is that we don't have to live through our own French Revolution in order to learn the undesirability of its ultimately destructive excesses, but I wouldn't stop buying guns and ammunition just yet

I'm OK with Biden as the nominee Trump runs against, there are much better contenders* the Ole Joe. If their fake polls keep the leftists happy until the election and Biden the candidate I'm all good with that...

*Not better at governing, just at potentially beating Trump.

 

[DadSmith]

This defund police is just an attempt to get rid of local control on local police. They want to nationalize the police force. So the Federal government has even more power over the people.

 

[indykid]

The beauty with private balloting is that outside you can say anything you want to keep the mobs and news media happy, but once you get into your private voting booth your honest feelings can come out.

That assumes that the voting machines haven't been tampered with and the ballot count is honest.

 

[Tombs]

After the 2016 cycle, I'm not sure we can really trust the polling. Trump does indeed have a statistically meaningful number of supporters who don't admit it to pollsters, or really anyone outside their circle of friends/family.

To the extent polls can provide some insight, it will be in the battleground states that Trump (surprisingly) won in 2016 that were usually blue.

But, Trump's electoral college calculus is IMHO a different question than your "silent majority" question. I actually think the majority of Americans support the peaceful protests and would like to see some (abstract) changes to prevent police abuses against minorities. That's an easy thing to support.

Which is 180 degrees opposed to defunding the police.
Training takes money, better training takes more money. Better training gives officers more confidence in less lethal alternatives, that previously they would have used a gun to solve.

 

[T.Lex]

Which is 180 degrees opposed to defunding the police.
Training takes money, better training takes more money. Better training gives officers more confidence in less lethal alternatives, that previously they would have used a gun to solve.

Agreed.

That's why personal engagement on these issues is important. The real-life conversations (for me, at least) turn to "de-funding" the "militarization" of police. Ok. That's something I'm generally in favor of, too. But let's talk about what that means.

First, understand how local police usually get actual military stuff. The cost of acquisition is usually low - it is the maintenance costs. Want an MRAP? Ok, here's a lightly used one, but you have to cover the oil changes. Want to defund that? Ok. No problem, let's mothball it. Or sell it. (If the feds let you.)

Second, let's talk about the stuff that makes the police look menacing and "militarized." The vast majority of that stuff is for their protection. You know, against the people who throw rocks and molotov cocktails. If we want police to be safe for those interactions, they need that gear. Same goes for those ARs they carry (which are sometimes their personal weapons). Find the videos for the West Hollywood shootout for it to sink in why those are good.

(Along those lines, maybe elect leaders who are better at community involvement so those riot gear callouts aren't as often.)

Finally, once we've pinched some pennies, there isn't much diverted, but channeling that to training to be more professional - with all citizens - makes sense. We can also talk about the bigly expenses of more car/body cameras and long term storage of the videos, etc. That'll probably require some tax increases. But, as a community, those are all good conversations to have.

 

[DadSmith]

I think private security companies, home security companies, and fence manufacturers will do pretty well, too.

Yep that be a fact. Also well trained guard dogs.

 

[daveh196803]

No way to know until the election. Our political adversaries have control of the media, and the school system so the deck is stacked in their favor in a number of ways. The only the chinks in that control of information advantage is the free flow of communication on the internet. Under the current paradigm, Trump is likely the last President with an R after his name for a while, no matter how 2020 turns out

 

[IndyBeerman]

After the 2016 cycle, I'm not sure we can really trust the polling. Trump does indeed have a statistically meaningful number of supporters who don't admit it to pollsters, or really anyone outside their circle of friends/family..

I don't think in any way you can trust polling. The sample base is entirely to small, how can a poll be +/- 3% when it does not even poll 1 percent of the voting population, and on top of that not geographically spread out.

I'm 58 years old, and not once in the 40 years I've been eligible to vote have I ever been asked by a poll who I was voting for and this even includes the so called exit polls.

 

[T.Lex]

I don't think in any way you can trust polling. The sample base is entirely to small, how can a poll be +/- 3% when it does not even poll 1 percent of the voting population, and on top of that not geographically spread out.

I'm 58 years old, and not once in the 40 years I've been eligible to vote have I ever been asked by a poll who I was voting for and this even includes the so called exit polls.

So, the reality is that - under normal circumstances - polling can provide insights. With a broad enough sample (with whatever criteria you're trying to gauge), after a surprisingly small percentage of answers can give you a reliable pattern. You can keep asking more people, but the ratios of answers won't change much.