Food Shortage Looms

[Justus]

As if the global meltdown and soaring food prices are not enough, now brace up for food shortage in the coming two years.

Even as the world is struggling to fight global market meltdown with companies sacking employees and Industries scaling down production, the world will also have to tackle food shortage and soaring prices in the coming days.
Still, this year’s record cereal harvest and the recent fall in food prices should not create a false sense of security.

If the current price volatility and liquidity conditions prevail in 2008/09, plantings and output could be affected to such an extent that a new price surge might take place in 2009/10, unleashing even more severe food crises than those experienced recently.


Meltdown to hit agriculture, food shortage looms

 

[smokingman]

population doubling every 4 years.....of course there will be a food crisis,probably sooner rather than later.

 

[dburkhead]

population doubling every 4 years.....of course there will be a food crisis,probably sooner rather than later.

I think you may mean "every 40 years." Every four years is not even physically possible. And the "every 40 years" is an extrapolation of short term trends which historically simply have not held. When I was in school, the extrapolation was every 35 years with an estimated global population of 4.5 billion. Today, about 35 years later, it's an estimated 6.6 billion (instead of 9 billion as predicted).

Population growth is very strongly affected by economics. Hunter-gatherer groups (such as, for instance, the !Kung) generally have very little population growth (achieved largely through restricting birthrate). Move a little beyond that, to economies driven largely by muscle-based agriculture and handicrafts, and birth rates soar. Restrictions on population there occur when you hit limits via disease or famine. But move farther into economies that are driven by industry and technology and birth rates start falling again. You can see that in the world today: developed countries have low birthrates (often not even at replacement level), less developed countries have higher birthrates. Another interesting view is in time-series where first the economy changes then the birthrate changes (it, apparently, takes a while for cultural "habits" and mores to "catch up" to changes in situations).

These changes in birthrates are entirely explainable with basic economics. In a hunter-gatherer society folk don't benefit from having many children. In the muscl-powered agriculture and handicrafts economy folk who have more children do better economically than their neighbors who don't. Children can be put to work in the fields, or making baskets, pottery, what have you from a fairly early age. Children are a net producer to the family from soon after they can walk. There's an ironic tragedy of the commons issue here in that the entire society can be harmed by everyone having large birthrates, but the folk who have larger families benefit relative to their neighbors who have fewer. If a society moves more to industrialization and technology as the drivers of the economy, children start becoming a net cost to the family. They take time away from other activities, bring costs for their care and upkeep, and (with a few exceptions) don't bring much if any compensating income to the family.

Of course economics isn't the only reason people have children otherwise most of the developed world would be facing extinction, but it is an influence and a significant one.

Thus, my[/] proposed solution to "population problems" is economic growth. As nations become wealthier their birthrate falls. Whether one agrees with what I describe above as reasons, the fact that it is what happens is incontrovertible. Economic growth -> more wealth -> lower birthrates. QED.

 

[ATM]

From another thread:

1 Case/12 Cans of Yoder’s Canned Bacon

Ten year shelf life. Be prepared.

 

[smokingman]

I misspoke on how often it doubles but at 6.72 billion people it does not need to double to make a shortage. World population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I defiantly agree with supplying as much of your own food as possible,and am one of those "crazy" people who has more than enough stored.Start small,buy a few things at a time.But everyone should have at least 2-3 months for every member of there home.
*on a side note it was nearly impossible to find a local source for high pressure caners this year...ended up ordering one online. Anyone know of a local indy area place that carries them?

 

[4sarge]

I bought 2 1/2 tons of #2 corn yesterday and the feed mill owner commented that he did not know what to expect for next year. The farmers are disgruntled over the falling grain prices and state that they will not be planting as much for next year (we'll see). When I started buying #2 corn (3yrs ago) it was 95 cents a bu (56lbs) it had risen to an all time high last year of 8+ dollars a bu and was predicted to go to 12 dollars. Feed, fuel and food depend upon a steady affordable grain price. Wheat had gone from 5 dollars per bu to 20 and I quit buying and watching grain prices until the stock market crashed, the commodity speculators got out and prices fell back to "normal". They are all inter related and domino off of each other. Things may be looking bleak

 

[VN Vet]

I heard on WIBC last night during their program on alternate fuels, the big oil companies are watching and buying up the Nations farms. They new fuel for this Nation should be alcohol made from graines. The big oil companies do not want this. They will not only control our Nations New Fuel Possibilies and keep us dependent on fosil fuels, they will control our food supplies.

People. if this happens, we can only guess what will happen next. Of course to get to the the correct answer won't take too many guesses.

I am so glad I am an older F___ and I have faith in what happens after death. I just wish and hope I can take a few of the evil people with me when I go.

OK, you ask, how will I tell who the evil people are? Trust me. I will know. You will know also. No more guessing. IMHO!

 

[VN Vet]

My family are all farmers, big farmers and what tell tell me confirms this thread and scares me. I am glad my family are famers, at least we can feed ourselve, if we can find and afford seeds in a year or two.

 

[4sarge]

My family are all farmers, big farmers and what tell tell me confirms this thread and scares me. I am glad my family are farmers, at least we can feed ourselves, if we can find and afford seeds in a year or two.

The Government & speculators drove up the price of corn for Ethanol Production. Corn is a poor choice for ethanol production. Brazil is almost energy independent because they manufacture & refine ethanol from sugar cane. The sugar industry lobbyist have a lock on the US Congress and they will not allow us to use sugar cane w/o tremendous price subsidies. It's retarded but it's our corrupt politicians at work

 

[dburkhead]

Earth's land area is about 37 billion acres (just land area--not counting water). We have the capability (expensive, but there) to produce enough food to feed one person from about 1/2 acre or less of land.

 

[rhino]

The USA alone could feed everyone on this planet if we so chose. The problem is in the distribution and the politics.

Given that, our system is far more fragile than most people want to believe. The weakness is in the distribution and the dependency of most people on weekly or even daily resupply. If that gets interrupted, we've got problems that will make the current financial unpleasantness look tame.

I've been encouraged by others and continue to encourage people with whom I have contact to put any expendable income into non-perishable food supplies. A couple of extra cans or similar items each time you hit the grocery is no big financial strain, but it could make a huge difference later on. If you only buy stuff you like to eat, then it's easy to cycle through it, so it's not even an added expense in the long run. It is, however, a significant investment in your short term future.

Buy food. You have enough guns and ammo. Buy food. You can't eat gold. Buy food.

 

[Mr.Hoppes]

We are small time “farmers”. We saw this coming a couple years back when crops were damaged and prices jumped. We reduced the amount of feed (Grain) we give our animals and have taken to supplementing with their natural foods. Many Hobby farmers such as our selves have just plain up and quit because of the cost of feed and the cost of hay. There are areas in the USA where it is nearly impossible to get good quality hay at a fair price anymore. We saw this trend coming and adapted to prevent our food supply from going away. We are small enough that we can eat most everything we grow. There always some for the needy too. We started developing long term plans to store food and water. We also included in the plan for our animals as well. Our milking goats who are in milk are the only ones to get grain unless there is no other option. We collect leaves and tree branches for them to eat during the winter months. Chickens and other fowl eat mostly from the ground, and are fed grain when they are chicks. We garden for vegetables and surplus is stored. Any left over food from meals are bagged and frozen to make meals of later. We freeze and can most everything. The grain we feed is from a local farmer who practices organic farming techniques and sells his own grains locally. We believe in a local economy. We also believe in keeping it simple, just because man can make a hen lay an egg quicker or have bigger breasts doesn’t mean it is a good thing. We also bulk buy things we cannot grow ourselves. Wheat flour is one thing we haven’t managed yet, so we bulk buy it right from Montana and get a years supply at a time. We plan on doing more than that if possible. People often say “I know where I am going If it ever hit the fan” and I say think again. We store extra and have a plan of who can come to stay with us and who will be given directions to alternate places of survival.

 

[dburkhead]

The USA alone could feed everyone on this planet if we so chose. The problem is in the distribution and the politics.

Yup. And most nations could feed themselves but face the same problems.

In most of the world, more food is lost to rot, vermin, and bugs than is ever eaten by humans. Simple crop rotation could improve the yields in many places. And that's leaving aside things like nitrogen fixing through artificial means (ye olde Haber Process being the big one there), hydroponics, and other industrial methods. Long poll in the tent there is energy (which is a different rant).

It's amazing how many of the world's problems all have the same solution: economic growth.

 

[VN Vet]

The Government & speculators drove up the price of corn for Ethanol Production. Corn is a poor choice for ethanol production. Brazil is almost energy independent because they manufacture & refine ethanol from sugar cane. The sugar industry lobbyist have a lock on the US Congress and they will not allow us to use sugar cane w/o tremendous price subsidies. It's retarded but it's our corrupt politicians at work

WIBC said the same thing about Brazil last night. I don't think it was sugar cane they talked about, but it was a crop we could grow here.

 

[ar15_dude]

Earth's land area is about 37 billion acres (just land area--not counting water). We have the capability (expensive, but there) to produce enough food to feed one person from about 1/2 acre or less of land.

Yeah but how much of the 37B acres is arable? Answer: about 3.5B and shrinking. In the US, over a million acres of cropland are lost to development each year.

http://www.tfi.org/publications/foodprices.pdf

 

[jedi]

Fear not Hooisers.. The AIR CAR is coming soon to you in 2010!!!
What is that AIR CAR you say?

and

The 1st car has ALREADY been built and is being mass produced in INDIA right now as the Air Taxi. The company (US Based) sold royality rights to some car company in INIDA several years back. The company is currenlty in the process of building several manf. centers across the US (CA, NY, IN, TX, MA) which will be spitting out these little babies.

So what do you use?

!!!!AIR!!!!

Compresses air actually. A tank of compresses air gives the car about 75 miles. A small 2 cycle engine that can use (diesel, gasoline, ethenal, and biofuels) is also included which gives the car some additional miles on a quart of "fuel"! In addition you can plug the car to any outlet so that the compressor motor can "charge" and compress the air. While you drive it does it to from what I read but not as fast.

Cost is estimated to be $12-15K!!!

Last hurrdle the company faces right now is the CRASH TEST which the company expects to pass in late 2009. So how does that sound to ya?



Sorry forgot to give you the website.
Zero Pollution Motors - Air Car

 

[imprimis5]

Fear not Hooisers.. The AIR CAR is coming soon to you in 2010!!!http://zeropollutionmotors.us/

I got all excited for a second, thinking this was about flying cars. Weren't we supposed to have those in the year 2000, along with food pills and laser guns?

 

[dburkhead]

Yeah but how much of the 37B acres is arable? Answer: about 3.5B and shrinking. In the US, over a million acres of cropland are lost to development each year.

http://www.tfi.org/publications/foodprices.pdf

At the top end of production per acre, it doesn't matter what the land is. At that point you are dealing with hydroponic greenhouses. All you need is space and sunlight.

My point wasn't that there are food shortages. My point was that "too many people" per se is not the problem. The irony is that the very conditions that lead to food shortages (muscle-based agriculture without ready access to modern fertilizers, irrigation, etc.) is also the kind of situation where each individual family benefits (relative to their neighbors) form having more children. Joe and Ethel, with seven children, tend to be better off than George and Bertha with three.

The only "fix" for that is either forced mass sterilizations (and there's a word for that: it begins with "geno" and ends with "cide") or changing the situation so that people benefit from having fewer children. Once the cost-benefit ratio changes, more people will choose smaller childrens and population growth will fall. We've seen this happen throught must of the "developed world" as societies industrialize, they start having smaller families. Not everybody, of course, but it doesn't need to be everybody. The average drops and that's enough.

But to do that requires economic growth. And that means plentiful energy. At our current level of technology, the only source that can even begin to provide the amount of energy required is nuclear. The problems there are political and economic rather than technological.

 

[ATM]

...At our current level of technology, the only source that can even begin to provide the amount of energy required is nuclear. The problems there are political and economic rather than technological.

for nukes.

 

[dburkhead]

for nukes.

Yup. Plenty of power available, safer than coal, even the accidents that we've had release less radiation than coal does on a daily basis. (ever run a Geiger counter over coal mine tailings? I'd say "illuminating" but "frightening" is a better word when you consider the sheer volume of material produced.)

Nuclear could produce the energy the world needs not only for modern industrial society but to extend modern technology and energy throughout the world, including the "third world" (and why is it that we never hear about a "second world"?). And by the time fissionables run short, we should have fusion or solar power satellites or something as a high energy alternative.

There are four things required to produce wealth: energy, material resources, ingenuity, and motivation. Energy is generally the limiting factor. Some might think material resources is a significant limit as well, but with sufficient energy and a modicum of ingenuity and motivation, just about anything becomes a resource. Even ordinary rocks (as opposed to specific ores) can be broken down for things like iron, aluminum, titanium, silicon, and just about all the other feedstocks to industry. The problems aren't even technical. They are political and economic, as usual.