Beer Virus V

[foszoe]

So the book of faces has posts that say IU is ICU is full and they are converting other areas to ICU. Any insight?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wt...ital/531-361346cc-f322-4f88-ad13-803f55294ff5

From yesterday

 

[nonobaddog]

Looks like they could become a little chilly in a couple months.

 

[T.Lex]

So, it looks like today will either continue to have the doubling rate for deaths at 144 days or drop to 143 days.

That becomes important because if that days-to-double is static, or decreasing, that means we are technically in exponential growth. Now, that is a pretty big number right now - more than 4 months. But, if we stay in this exponential growth pattern... well... it means alot of pain for alot of people, not just in terms of who dies but the impact on society.

If we're at 250k now, in 4 months that would be 500k, 4 months after that 1M.

Of course, the treatments and vaccines that are coming available should cut into that before we go 4 months from now. I hope.

 

[BugI02]

So, it looks like today will either continue to have the doubling rate for deaths at 144 days or drop to 143 days.

That becomes important because if that days-to-double is static, or decreasing, that means we are technically in exponential growth. Now, that is a pretty big number right now - more than 4 months. But, if we stay in this exponential growth pattern... well... it means alot of pain for alot of people, not just in terms of who dies but the impact on society.

If we're at 250k now, in 4 months that would be 500k, 4 months after that 1M.

Of course, the treatments and vaccines that are coming available should cut into that before we go 4 months from now. I hope.

An alternate view, using the worldometers numbers for today to calculate percentage of those tested who eventually end up testing positive and dying, would imply a maximum of just under 488k dead if those odds were applied to 331million people

And there is no reason to believe the CFR is going anywhere but down, as it has declined from almost 4% to its current 2.13% a bit over 4 months. There is no compelling reason to agree, but the numbers can be tested in the future. Given the rate of decline, I would expect the CFR, approximated via worldometers numbers, to drop below 2% on or before Dec 4, 2020

 

[nonobaddog]

An alternate view, using the worldometers numbers for today to calculate percentage of those tested who eventually end up testing positive and dying, would imply a maximum of just under 488k dead if those odds were applied to 331million people

And there is no reason to believe the CFR is going anywhere but down, as it has declined from almost 4% to its current 2.13% a bit over 4 months. There is no compelling reason to agree, but the numbers can be tested in the future. Given the rate of decline, I would expect the CFR, approximated via worldometers numbers, to drop below 2% on or before Dec 4, 2020

That is pretty dependent on increasing testing.

 

[BugI02]

That is pretty dependent on increasing testing.

Tell me, how is using past data to extrapolate the future any different than what TLex is doing?

 

[dusty88]

So, it looks like today will either continue to have the doubling rate for deaths at 144 days or drop to 143 days.

That becomes important because if that days-to-double is static, or decreasing, that means we are technically in exponential growth. Now, that is a pretty big number right now - more than 4 months. But, if we stay in this exponential growth pattern... well... it means alot of pain for alot of people, not just in terms of who dies but the impact on society.

If we're at 250k now, in 4 months that would be 500k, 4 months after that 1M.

Of course, the treatments and vaccines that are coming available should cut into that before we go 4 months from now. I hope.

I don't know if cases will continue to grow that much or not. But even if they don't the hospitalizations will grow because people often stay in the hospital for a while when they have covid. That's also what will affect the fatality rate. Critical care workers are already very stressed and they cannot replicate themselves.

 

[NKBJ]

Do we have a new bank bug or are the ongoing reported COVID case rates being manipulated?
Got a nephew and niece in Chicago country that are in the hospital business, I'm hearing they're out of beds.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Do we have a new bank bug or are the ongoing reported COVID case rates being manipulated?
Got a nephew and niece in Chicago country that are in the hospital business, I'm hearing they're out of beds.

We've been thinking about selling a twin bed and getting a queen size for one of our spare bedrooms. Think they'd be interested?

 

[NKBJ]

They probably just want this **** to stop.

 

[jamil]

Why not call it the Amazon bug? They’ve probably gained the most from all this ****.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Why not call it the Amazon bug? They’ve probably gained the most from all this ****.

 

[churchmouse]

Do we have a new bank bug or are the ongoing reported COVID case rates being manipulated?
Got a nephew and niece in Chicago country that are in the hospital business, I'm hearing they're out of beds.

Hospitals are "ALWAYS OUT OF OR SHORT ON BEDS"

Always.

 

[wingrider1800]

We've been thinking about selling a twin bed and getting a queen size for one of our spare bedrooms. Think they'd be interested?

 

[wagyu52]

Hospitals are "ALWAYS OUT OF OR SHORT ON BEDS"

Always.

This has been bothering me throughout this whole “epidemic” For most industries being at capacity is a good thing right? But not in the medical industry? But why would a hospital build facilities that they never intend to run a capacity?

 

[nonobaddog]

Tell me, how is using past data to extrapolate the future any different than what TLex is doing?

Oh it is not much different at all and I wasn't saying it is and there is nothing wrong with extrapolation and I wasn't saying there is.

The only difference in comparing deaths data to testing data is the deaths data has a smaller human control element while testing has a bigger human control element.

 

[IndyBeerman]

Hospitals are "ALWAYS OUT OF OR SHORT ON BEDS"

Always.

^^^^^
THIS!!!

It's like a hotel, build one with too many rooms and you have a low occupancy, you can't pay the bills

 

[nonobaddog]

Here the hospitals open and close units (maybe about 30 to 40 beds, fewer for an ICU) to accommodate the varying patient population. The harder trick is to vary the staffing.

 

[dusty88]

Hospitals are "ALWAYS OUT OF OR SHORT ON BEDS"

Always.

From what I understand, they do often hit at or near maximum during flu season but there is usually another hospital in the region that can take over flow.
Even when the outbreaks were bad in New York or Texas there were some doctors and nurses that flew there to help. The outbreak is so widespread right now that travel nurses are no longer available.

Taking care of critical care patients is very stressful and specialized. These are human beings and they've already been doing this for months. And now it's much worse. This is not a case of bed space or room space.

 

[jamil]

Dusty88, I would think that this year’s flu season would be lighter than usual. Sure, not everyone is adhering to the prescribed mitigations, but a lot of people are, compared with normal flu season. I am starting to see more people violate the mask mandate in indoor public spaces. But still in a given venue more people are wearing them, and wearing them correctly, than not. More people appear to be keeping their distance than not. Venues are still cleaning their stuff more often than normally. So, if the mitigations are effective at all, they should also be effective for the flu, at least a little.